Larry Ness
Miami @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +5.5
The Cavs won 66 games two years ago and 61 last year. However, the 'landscape' has changed greatly in Cleveland after this past summer. The starting lineup for its most recent game was Williams (15.9-5.3 APG) and Parker (8.1) at the guards, Hickson (11.8-5.8) and Graham (6.8) at the forwards with Varejao (8.7-9.1) at center. Former All Star Jamison (11.6-5.1) comes off the bench these days while guards Gibson (13.1-3.4 APG) and Sessions (10.7-4.2 APG) are making solid contributions. The Cavs are 7-10 after 17 games, on pace to with about 33 or 34 games. Actually, that's better than many people thought, although Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert may still be standing by his comment that the Cavs will win an NBA title before LBJ and the Heat. No one needs to add any more hype to LeBron's return to Cleveland, which should likely get TNT its highest ratings of the season. Is ANYBODY (outside of Miami) actually NOT rooting for the Cavs? The Heat entered this week just 9-8 but two comfortable home wins over the Wizards and Pistons (not many teams are capable of sweeping those two juggernauts) have avoided the embarrassment of Miami coming into this game 10-9 or even 9-10 (how funny would that have been?). To add a little more mystique to this game, the Heat experienced airplane troubles on their way to Cleveland. A spokeswoman for Cleveland Hopkins airport, says the crew of the Heat’s plane reported a wing “flap issue” early Thursday as the aircraft was on its approach. An alert was issued at the airport and two fire trucks were sent out to the runway, which is standard procedure. Mayo says the plane landed safely around 2:30 a.m. Now that LBJ is safely on the ground, what can we expect tonight? Who knows? Even with all its early struggles, Miami is a better team than Cleveland. That being said, tonight is "Game 7 of the NBA Finals" for the Cavs. I'm taking the points.
Sean Murphy
Rider @ Manhattan
PICK: Rider -4.5
This has been a tightly-contested series in the last couple of seasons, with all four meetings being decided by five points or less.
With that said, I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday evening.
Rider has shown flashes of brilliance this season, beating USC by 20 on the road and outlasting a quality TCU squad by 15 points. However, the Broncs limp into this matchup having dropped two games in a row - both at home, no less.
One of those losses came in their MAAC opener against Siena. They were actually listed as a four-point favorite against the perennial MAAC powerhouse, but fell well short in a 73-60 loss. That loss alone should give the Broncs ample motivation on Thursday.
Rider returns much of the talent from a team that finished strong last season. The Broncs went 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS over their final 12 games in the 09-10 season. The MAAC preseason coaches' poll had Rider finishing fifth in the conference, but I believe they could be better.
Manhattan started the season 2-0, but it's been all downhill from there - they've now lost four games in a row. The Jaspers did put up a good fight against Georgia this past weekend, ultimately losing 61-58, but keep in mind, that game would have been a lot more lopsided were it not for an absolutely dreadful shooting night from the Bulldogs. The Jaspers were actually dominated in just about every area of that game.
Manhattan has made wholesale changes to its roster here in 2010, and while that may not be a bad thing given how much they struggled last season, it's going to take some time for this group to come together.
Rico Pickett and Darryl Crawford are going to be difficult for Manhattan to replace. That's not to mention Patrick Bouli, another key cog from last year's squad. Pickett, Crawford, and Bouli were the Jaspers only double-digit scorers in two matchups with Rider last season. In fact, in their most recent meeting with the Broncs, Pickett and Crawford combined to score 47 of the team's 71 points in a three-point loss.
It's not as if the Jaspers are void of talent, but as the line indicates, they should have their hands full against a hungry Broncs squad on Thursday. Take Rider.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –7½ over Houston
You take a team, the Texans, that can’t stop the marching band and put them on the road on three days rest and they virtually have no shot at winning against an Eagles team coming off a loss. That’s the first problem and there’s many more. The Texans have a tough time preparing with a week’s rest for a QB that can’t move and now they’ll face one that moves better than any. The Eagles should be able to name the score here. Houston is coming off a 20-0 win over the Titans in a game Tennessee treated like a scrimmage. In fact, the Titans ran three plays all game inside the Texans 50-yard line and any other team would have beaten them by 49, not 20. The Eagles are coming off a game against the Bears in which one turnover late in the first half changed the course of that contest. Having said that, Philly has road games upcoming in Dallas and New York over the next two weeks, making this one a crucial game for them. When the Texans travel they usually allow between 30 and 40 points against and that’s not going to change against a QB and team they won’t be prepped for. This one could and likely will get very ugly. Play: Philadelphia –7½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
CLEVELAND +1.93 over Miami
In what has to be considered the most anticipated regular season game in the history of sports, Lebron James is in for the absolute worst fan treatment ever. On Monday, two days before the game, Chris Bosh was quoted as saying, “We don’t know what to expect”. LeBron has stated that it’s going to be “mentally draining”, and that’s a term you never hear an athlete say. The Heat played last night and now they’ll play a team in an arena that is going to make life miserable for the visitor. For the Cav’s, this game is the only one that matters this season. This is their “Super Bowl”. They’ll play their guts out for 48 minutes and they’ll be more focused than they’ve ever been. It’s going to be absolutely nuts at the Q. Does not matter who you are, everyone wants to be liked and everyone wants respect. LeBron James is the most hated person in the history of Cleveland and you can be damn sure the only thing on his mind is getting the hell out of Cleveland. The Cav’s might blowout the Heat and its chances of winning are not good, its chances of winning are great. Enjoy. Play: Cleveland +1.93 (Risking 2 units).
Northern Illinois +10 over DEPAUL
Oliver Purnell and his full court press strategy is about as worthless a strategy as there is. That strategy that’s he’s employed wherever he’s gone has worked sometimes but only when he’s had quality personnel. That’s not the case here. DePaul has one win in five games and Purnell will continue to try and force the opposition into careless play with that ridiculous system. The only thing it does is lead to easy buckets for the opposition and with the best player on the floor being the Huskies Xavier Silas, expect him to go off for his usual 25 and then some. Also note that the Blue Demons rank 334th in the nation in rebounds and that adds to its problems of employing the full court press. Northern Illinois won’t dazzle anyone but they play a methodical, grind it out game and have been doing so with success for years. The Huskies come in with a 2-3 record and they’re coming off a brutal performance against Boise St and that 29-point loss has them very undervalued here. Fact is, the Blue Demons really don’t warrant being a double-digit favorite against a team that they’re no better than and it wouldn’t surprise one bit to see the Huskies win outright. Play: Northern Illinois +10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Edmonton +1.50 over TORONTO
Not much needs to be said here. The Leafs are reeling once again and now the pressure heightens even more for the Leafs to beat the Oilers. Toronto media and fans are flipping out already over the Leafs woes and the shit will really hit the fan should the Leafs lose to Edmonton, a team that is last in the standings and that will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. Regardless of the outcome, the Leafs –1.60 here is completely and utterly ridiculous. Yeah, the Leafs will be more rested but the Oilers are young, very talented, enthusiastic and energetic while the Leafs are playing scared. Furthermore, the Oilers have a chance for a three-game sweep on this trip and after beating Ottawa and Montreal, one can only imagine how jacked up they’ll be to finish the deal in Toronto. The Leafs have a GM that’s way over his head, a coach that everyone hates because he’s unlikeable and about a third of its players that couldn’t crack the line-up of 70% of the teams in this league. Toronto can’t win games, they get outplayed every night, they’re feeling the immense pressure and now you’re going to lay –1.60 against a young and very talented team that’s gaining momentum and confidence? This is outstanding value on a team that has a better chance of winning than the favorite. Play: Edmonton +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +1.07 over NEW JERSEY
Much prefer the Habs as a pooch than as a favorite because they offer up so much more value as a dog. Montreal played last night after being off for four days and surely, blowing a 3-1 lead with 11 minutes to go can’t be sitting well with them. The Canadiens have a great shot of shutting down these Devils, as New Jersey continues to scratch and claw for every goal they get. In fact, only once in its last seven games has the Devils scored more than two goals and chances are they won’t score more than that against the stingy Canadiens defense and the outstanding goaltending of Carey Price. Also note that the Devils have been off since Nov 27 and a five-day rest will not work in its favor. The Devils have won three of its last four but don’t be fooled by that, as they’ve scored four times over its last three games and you simply can’t keep winning by scoring twice a game. Only once this season have the Habs dropped two straight and that’s a significant fact. Play: Montreal +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Info Plays
3* Free Pick: Missouri Tigers -6
Reasons why Missouri will Cover:
1)These two teams faced off last season and the Tigers won 106-69. Oregon is coming off a 98-71 loss to Duke,and it just doesn't appear that they have the talent to keep up with a team like Missouri. The Tigers are picked to finish at the top of the Big 12, while the Ducks are predicted to finish at the bottom of the Pac-10.
2)The Ducks are in a period of transition, as they enter their first season under new head coach Dana Altman, who is just 1-13 in his last 14 games against teams ranked in the top 25.
3)The Tigers are 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, while the Ducks are just 3-11 ATS as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons.
Jack Jones
Kansas -16.5
The Kansas Jayhawks certainly appear to be one of the top teams in the country this season, blowing teams out night after night. Kansas is off to a fast 6-0 start, scoring 92.0 PPG while allowing 56.7 PPG. That means they are outscoring opponents by 35.3 PPG this season. UCLA already has a pair of losses with a 12-point setback against Villanova and a 4-point loss to VA Commonwealth. The Bruins remain in rebuilding mode and do not have the talent to play with the Jayhawks, especially in Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks have won 63 straight at home since a 69-66 loss to then-No. 10 Texas A&M on Feb. 3, 2007. The Morris brothers are playing out of their minds early in the season for Kansas. Marcus is averaging 19.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG this season while Markieff is putting up 12.3 PPG and a team-high 9.5 RPG. UCLA sophomore forwards Reeves Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt will certainly have their hands full with these two. The Bruins are 1-8 ATS in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is 20-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Take the Jayhawks Thursday.