Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 23, 2010

JIM FEIST

MIAMI / PHOENIX
TAKE: UNDER

Miami is a dynamite defensive team, not big up front, but ferocious with team defense, on a 7-3 run under the total. They are tops in the NBA allowing 91.5 ppg while allowing just .425% shooting. These teams met last month and Miami held the uptempo Suns to just 96 points, 12 below their average. Miami can get smacked around under the glass by bigger teams, but Phoenix is not a strong rebounding team. Look for a defensive battle, play the Heat/Suns Under the total.

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +2

Milwaukee is on cloud nine after beating the Lakers in LA without their best player Jennings. They were also helped out by Kobe Bryant getting ejected after receiving his second technical foul arguing. Milwaukee is 11-16 on the year and just 4-10 on the season on the road. Sacramento is on a bit of a losing streak of 6 games and only 5-21 on the year, but 60% of their wins have come at home. Look for the Kings to snap the losing streak with a big win over Milwaukee at home. Play Sacramento

Charlie Scott

Navy vs. San Diego State
Play: Under 59.0

This total seems a little inflated at 60.5, as I made the total out to be 55 not factoring in bad weather. SD State has had nearly a month off since their last game, a 48-14 win over UNLV on November 27. Such a long layoff could bring a lackluster offense with some undisciplined penalties (false starts, offsides) as well as a rested defense. Navy's wishbone offense is a time-consuming, all run-oriented; they lack the ability of a quick score as they can't pass. SD State's Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long (former HC @ UNM) is underrated at the National level and with so much time to prepare, I trust him to have a defensive scheme ready to slow down Navy option. Throw in bad weather in Southern California and it all adds up to an UNDER. Ps- I wrote this pick up Monday for the Hot Corner and didn't factor in weather for a Under Play. As of posting this Pick the Stadium is Under water and I expect this Total to go down. This is a Under Play for anything 57.5 and higher.

Nelly

Georgetown - over Memphis

Both Memphis and Georgetown have just one loss on the season but don't confuse these teams as similar caliber squads. Georgetown's one loss came on the road in a tight game at Temple where the slow pace really got to the Hoyas. There are several impressive wins already on the resume for Georgetown before the Big East season has even started. The Hoyas have wins over Missouri, Utah State, NC State, Coastal Carolina, and Wofford. Memphis has just one loss and it was a high quality loss, falling respectably by 13 away from home against Kansas. Two wins came in overtime for Memphis however (Austin Peay and Arkansas State) and there have been several close calls against marginal competition. Memphis did beat LSU and Miami but while those wins sound nice, neither program is likely to be a postseason threat this season. Memphis is scoring 80 points per game but Georgetown is even better on offense through a far tougher schedule. Georgetown is hitting nearly 53 percent this season and the Hoyas should have a big advantage from the free throw line and the 3-point line. Memphis has good defensive numbers but the competition has been marginal and the home court edge is not nearly as significant as a few years ago. Georgetown seems to continually be an undervalued team, currently on a 13-3 ATS run going back to last season while the polar opposite is true for Memphis, riding a 9-24 ATS run.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH –14 over Carolina

The Steelers usually beat up on dregs because they can’t beat up on anyone else and love to flex their muscles against weaklings. The Pink Panthers come in off a win over the Cardinals and that was John Fox’s farewell game. Fox and his staff are out the door as soon as the season ends and one really has to question the Panthers motivation for this one. Then we have Jimmy Claussen playing in Pittsburgh against an unsympathetic defense and Claussen in this environment against this host is equivalent to a sixth grader taking a medical school exam. Throw in the short week and it gets worse for Carolina. The Steelers are coming off a loss against the Jets. They’re now tied with the Ravens for first in the division with two games left and if they want home field advantage or a bye they need to win its final two games. This Panthers are a bad team with no motivation and one really has to wonder how they’ll score points here. Play: Pittsburgh –14 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Play: Washington Capitals

A NICE Eastern conference NHL clash tonight in the nations capital. This is the first of 4 matchups this season between the two powerhouses, and the Pens are looking to avenge last season's sweep by the Caps. Over the last 10 games the Pens are 8-2, the Caps are 2-6-2 and drastically underachieving. The Pens come into this one nursing some key injuries. Mike Comrie, and Jordan Staal are OUT for this one. These 2 teams also matchup next week in the Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic on New Year's Day at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. After 8 brutal losses and talk of firing the coach, the Caps have the wheels back on the bus. And fans of this team can see Ovechkin is HEATING UP. A 3-2 win at Ottawa on Sunday, and then they thumped the Devils 5-1 on Tuesday. Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh, WASHINGTON is 10-5-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 13-4-1 on home ice this year. I look for the Caps to win a close one on home ice tonight. At -130 the price is right here folks! BANK on it!

Gregg Price

San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -2½

Magic - We will have your football report at 5 pm, right now nothing is jumping out. Magic have played a few bad games, look for them to bounce back at home. Spurs spent a lot of energy against Denver last night, I don't know how much they will have in the tank for tonight. MAGIC get the call.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Memphis Tigers +5

Memphis is a very talented, well-coached team, and I won't hesitate to take it in the underdog role tonight. The Tigers are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they have long been a dangerous dog. In fact, Memphis is 57-37 ATS in its last 94 games when catching points. The Tigers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs at Orlando
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Orlando is 16-12 straight up this year. The Magic are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up loss and they are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Magic are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as home favorites. Orlando is 0-5 ATS when their opponent allowed 100 or more points in their last game. San Antonio is 25-3 straight up this year. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 road games and they are 7-1-1 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS when playing with no rest.

Larry Ness

Georgetown -4

Memphis coach Josh Pastner lost three key guards off last year's team, leading scorer Williams (17.9) plus 10-point scorers Sallie and Mack. Still, Memphis opened 7-0 this season before losing at Madison Square Garden 81-68 to Kansas on Dec 7. Memphis has won twice since then but 6-9 forward Wesley Witherspoon (13.0-4.6) has had right knee surgery (out until at least mid-January) and 6-11 center Angel Garcia quit the team to play professionally in Spain. The Tigers are now even younger than before. Three freshman started the last time and now just two non-freshman are making much of any contributions, the 6-9 Coleman (6.5-4.1) and guard Carmouche (9.3). The group of freshman contributing is impressive. Jackson (11.5-3.7 APG) leads the way along with Will Barton (11.4-4.4-2.7), Crawford (9.4), Antonio Barton (6.9) and Black (6.0-4.4). The last two wins have not come without struggles, trailing by 15 points in the second half vs Austin Peay before winning 70-68 in overtime and barely beating Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 68-63. Georgetown comes in 10-1, having only lost at Temple by three points. The senior backcourt duo of Freeman (18.5) and PG Wright (13.2-6.7 APG) get help from junior Clark (14.2-4.2) off the bench. There is little doubt that Georgetown would have been a MAJOR title contender with the 6-11 Monroe (16.1-9.6 LY) but with him in the NBA, the 6-9 Vaughn (8.9-6.7), the 6-7 Thompson (8.5-5.0) and the 6-10 Sims (5.0-4.0) will have to do on the frontline. The Hoyas have looked excellent this season (save that effort at Temple), shooting 52.5 percent as a team (42.5 on threes) while holding opponents tom 41.9 percent. I'm going with the veteran team on the road in this one. Lay the small points.

James Patrick Sports

Thrashers vs. Bruins

Huge game for the Boston Bruins coaching staff as heads are about to roll in Bean Town and with a road trip awaiting the Bruins after this game, Big Game James complimentary selection on the NHL ice is Boston Bruins.

Red Dog Sports

Virginia Tech vs. St. Bonaventure
Pick: St. Bonaventure +9.5

St. Bonaventure is off a 4 overtime game in which they won and Andrew Nicholson scored 44 points. This game is played in upstate New York and most fans will be pro-Bonnies. Dorenzo Hudson will not be 100% for this game and the Hokies are not real deep as Chaney and Thompson are out for the year. Malcolm Delaney and company can score but I like the dog's chances to stay within 9.

John Ryan

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -2

5* graded play on the Milwaukee Bucks (11-16, 4-10 away) as they take on the Sacramento Kings (5-21, 3-12 home) set to start at 10:00 PM ET. Milwaukee is coming off a stunning win at the Staples Center defeating the defending champion Lakers 98-79 Tuesday. It is stunning anytime the Lakers lose at home to a team with a losing record, but the Bucks accomplished this without their leading scorer Brandon Jennings. The Bucks carry this positive momentum over to this game against arguably the weakest team in the NBA. The Kings lost in overtime to Golden State in their last game surrendering a 3-point buzzer beater at the end of regulation that tied the game. They did score the first four points of overtime, but were thoroughly dominated the remainder of the overtime period losing 117-109. Things just keep getting worse for the Kings and this lack of confidence reveals it’s ugly head in the fourth quarter. Over the past six games they have scored an average of just 19.7 points in the fourth quarter. Over the past three games they have been outscored by an average of 11.7 points in the fourth quarter. Now, the Kings are facing a team that has learned how to finish games. The Bucks ended the Lakers game on a 21-7 run and held the Lakers scoreless for more than four minutes during that run. The betting line reflects a perception that the Kings will be focused and prepared for this game knowing this is one of the few teams they can defeat. Reality is a far different thing, however, as I fully expect the Bucks to win this game going away in the fourth quarter. From the technical side the Bucks are 33-15 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing more than 99 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Bucks are a solid 13-2 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Milwaukee Bucks.

Craig Trapp

San Antonio Spurs vs. Orlando Magic
Play: San Antonio Spurs +121

Orlando is 0-2 since making the trade as they are having trouble integrating new players. Only negative in this that keeps this from top play for me is the back to back game for Spurs. Good news for Spurs is that Duncan is playing like his regular all star self and he is going to get Howard in foul trouble. Orlando has no depth at center now and will pay in this one. SA keeps winning streak, great value with underdog M/L here.