Info Plays
3* Heat -6
Reasons why the Heat will Cover:
1) Phoenix will debut their three new additions from the trade they made this past weekend, and I think its going to take some time for these new guys to get in the rhythm with Nash and the rest of the Suns.
2) The Suns are just 4-8 ATS at home this season, and just aren't playing that good of basketball right now. They have won just 2 of their last seven, and take on a Heat team that just lost to the Mavericks. The key to betting the Heat is they can play a bad game tonight and still beat the Suns by 10 points.
3) The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +6.5
I expect the Miami Heat to suffer a similar letdown tonight that the Los Angeles Lakers suffered against the Milwaukee Bucks their last time out. Obviously the Lakers were looking ahead to their big showdown against the Miami Heat on Christmas Day, and just didn't show up against the Bucks. Miami will come in with a similar mindset, much more interested in playing the defending champion Lakers two days from now rather than facing the Phoenix Suns tonight. That's why the Suns are showing such great value at home here.
This play falls under a system that is 67-33 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games. Newcomers Mickael Pitrus and Marcin Gortat are expected to make their debut tonight for the Suns after getting traded from the Orlando Magic over the weekend, which will give this team a boost. Phoenix is scoring 110.5 PPG at home this season where they are very tough to beat. The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take the Suns Thursday.
Ben Burns
Vancouver Canucks @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets
he Canucks have been on a great roll. However, they're off a tough (5-4 in OT) loss at Detroit last night. Off that defeat and looking ahead to Christmas, I expect them to stumble tonight. Note that the Canucks are just 2-6 (-6) the last eight times that they allowed four or more goals in their previous game, a situation they have long performed poorly in.
The Jackets, who had last night off, snapped their losing streak last time out. They'd badly like to follow it up with another victory here to bring some positive momentum into the break. They played the Canucks very tough at Vancouver just last week, losing in Overtime. Catching the Canucks off last night's "heartbreak" and now facing them in their own building, the Jackets, 3-2 the last five times that they were a host in this series, have an excellent shot at getting some 'payback.' Consider Columbus.
Sam Martin
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Bad spot for the Heat, who come into this game off a loss that ended their long winning streak, and not only are they playing a quality opponent on the road but are also caught in a lookahead to their game against the Lakers on Christmas Day. Phoenix has scored 110 or more points in three of their last four games, and here at home we think they can give the Heat a run for their money. Suns may not win this game outright, but the winner won't be decided until the final few minutes!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Mexico -5
New Mexico is rolling at the offensive end, which will likely make things very difficult for Northern Iowa this evening. This is not the same Panthers' team that took down Kansas in the NCAA tourney a season ago. UNI has taken a big step back offensively with only 2 starters back. UNI will try to buckle down at the defensive end to keep this one close, but it won't have enough offense when it is all said and done, as was the case in double-digit losses to Syracuse and Iowa. Betting against the Lobos has not been an option when they are rolling. In fact, they are a perfect 13-0 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more since Steve Alford took over as coach. They have won in this situation by an average score of 78.1 to 62.5. Lay the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Miami Heat -6½
In the nightcap look for defense to be the difference. Miami allows just 91 PPG on 42.5% from the floor; Phoenix allows 110 PPG on 48.8% from the floor. This is as large a difference as you’ll see in an NBA game. Expect full focus from the Heat after their 12 game win streak was broken at home on Monday night. Play Miami’s Big 3 vs. the Suns “over the hill” gang for a double digit win.
Teddy Covers
Utah @ Hawaii
PICK: Utah -3
Hawaii has no depth. Starting forward Bill Amis (16 points, 7 rebounds) is out with a fractured foot. Starting senior point guard Hiram Thompson (12 points, 3 assists) is out with a back injury. Guards Jordan Coleman and Anthony Salter both left the program earlier this month. First year head coach Gib Arnold was forced to use a seven man rotation in their loss to Florida State last night. True frosh point guard Bobby Miles played all 40 minutes against the Seminoles, finishing with two points, six assists and six turnovers.
With limited interior size, the Warriors took more than half of their shots from beyond the three point arc. They got outrebounded by 17 boards. Now, on the second night of back-2-back games, the Warriors face another opponent that brings both low post size and defensive intensity to the table. This time, however, the pointspread is much shorter, putting the short handed and Warriors in position where they’ll need a SU win or a very tight loss by a bucket or less in order to cover this number. Given the limitations of Hawaii’s roster right now, that seems like a long shot. 2* Take Utah
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -½ +1.00 over Minnesota
Once again we’ll play against the Wild because this team defies logic. They just beat the Flames in back-to-back games and in both contests they were the second best team on the ice and it wasn’t close. Practically both games were played in Minnesota’s zone end and they’re just not going to keep winning games when they get so badly outworked and outplayed. Now with back-to-back wins and four victories in their last six, the Wild can relax a bit in this their final game before the NHL shuts down until Sunday. The best news is that the Av’s are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Kings and in no way do they want to head into the break with another loss. It was the first time all season that Colorado was shut out and they lead the league in goals scored. They’ll come out tonight with a mission and they really couldn’t have handpicked a more ripe to get beat opponent. The Av’s are simply the vastly superior team in every way and they’re in a very good spot. Play: Colorado -½ +1.00 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
N.Y. Islanders +1.83 over NEW JERSEY
Frankly, it really does not matter how the outcome turns out. The fact of the matter is we’re getting tremendous value taking back a tag like this against the Devils. New Jersey has lost three in a row, seven of eight and during its current three-game losing skid they’ve been outscored 15-3. The Devils score once a night, twice if they’re on their game. The Devils don’t even know who’s coaching tonight. Meanwhile, the Islanders have won two of three and picked up points in all three games. Dwayne Roloson was brilliant last night in win over the Lightning and with Rick DiPietro on the rack, it looks like Roloson will go again and that’s a good thing. Despite its poor record, at least the Islanders come to play and that’s more than you can say about the Devils. Without trying to sound redundant, Marty Brodeur is a huge liability in the nets and there’s no coach on the planet that can fix that except by benching him. Perhaps that’s why they’re bringing in Jacques Lemaire, as he’ll do what it takes to win. In any case, the Devils a 2-1 favorite is ludicrous beyond ludicrous. Play: N.Y. Islanders +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.52 over BOSTON
You think the Bruins are having a good year? They’re not and they’re overpriced. The Bruins just might be the most overvalued team in the NHL because of a great start and because of their great goaltending. How can this team be in eighth place when their save percentage is .943? No team will ever get better goaltending, and it’s sure not to maintain this pace all season so the Bruins better figure out a way to score. They’ve now lost four of five and they’re just two games above .500 at home. The Thrashers have either been tied or winning after regulation in 12 of their 17 road games. They’ve also scored 15 times over its last three games and that’s after Ty Conklin was brilliant against the Thrashers last game in which they scored just twice. Atlanta is on a roll while the B’s are floundering and at this price, one really has to like the value on the visitor. Suddenly Bruins under some pressure and there were even some rumors floating around the past couple of days about Claude Julien getting the axe. Boston did not respond well to pressure last year and this is basically the exact same team. Play: Atlanta +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Black Widow
1* on Milwaukee Bucks -2
Fading the Sacramento Kings has been a very prosperous move throughout the season. Sacramento is just 5-21 SU & 7-19 ATS this season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game on average. The Kings are 1-14 in their last 15 games overall and we'll fade what has proven to be the worst team in the league. Milwaukee is coming off a 98-79 win at the Los Angeles Lakers, beating the defending world champs handily. This is also a team that has wins over the Mavs, Rockets and Pacers in their last seven games, with their only losses coming against the Spurs, Jazz and Blazers. They have gone through a brutal stretch of games where they've played 9 teams with winning records over their last 11 games. This is a nice break in the schedule for them to face the Kings and a game they want to win knowing they'll have 3 days' rest before their next contest. The Bucks are 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a home loss this season. Take the Bucks and lay the points.
Derek Mancini
Carolina (+14') at PITTSBURGH
Sorry Pittsburgh-backers, but I'm not laying more than 2 TDs without Troy Polamalu in the lineup. The numbers don't lie, this is not the same ferocious defense without their star safety, allowing 23 ppg over the course of his 12 missed games since 2009. Polamalu is one of those hybrid safeties, who plays the run as well as the pass, and without him in there for run support, the Panthers will have markedly better success at doing the ONE thing they do well - rush the football.
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Carolina is going to run roughshod all over the Steelers. But what I am saying is they'll run well enough to keep the Steelers offense from being effective. Its the old how do you beat Peyton Manning/Tom Brady strategy? By keeping them off the field. Same goes here, except its going to be a lot tougher against Pittsburgh, even short-handed.
Good news is the Panthers have hit their stride with the run game, averaging a healthy 167 rushing yards over the past month. Eventhough they lost big, the Panthers amassed 212 rushing yards against a very good Falcons defense in Week 14. And then finally notched their second win against a lesser Cardinals defense last week, thanks to 177 rushing yards. Stewart and Goodson are running hard, and they'll be the reason Pittsburgh backers get burned here. Take Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh Thursday.
2♦ CAROLINA
Joel Tyson
Carolina at PITTSBURGH (-14')
Free play goes in the NFL, as I am forced to lay the lumber with the Pittsburgh Steelers at home against the Carolina Panthers.
Pittsburgh just lost at home on Sunday, so tonight's game becomes a "must win" for a playoff-bound team that is looking to improve their seeding stock for January.
Carolina did win against Arizona, but the Panthers are just 2-4 against the spread on the road this year, and it seems highl unlikely their sub-par offense is going to be able to do much damage to the Steelers defense.
On the other hand, it is about time Pittsbrugh put together a solid offensive showing, as the Steelers have not had too many solid offensive outputs of late.
I know it is a ton of points, but I say you have to lay them.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
Navy (+3) vs. San Diego St., at San Diego
Tonight's FREE winner comes from the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego as I go ahead and grab the points with Navy, taking on San Diego State on its home turf.
For my comp selection, this game is happening right on San Diego State’s home field, but I’m going to grab the points and play Navy to either get the win or certainly get inside the number tonight. The Midshipmen can run the ball and you know they’ve been disciplined during the two week buildup to this game.
In fact, Navy played less than two weeks ago when they beat Army in the annual classic, winning 31-17 and cashing as a 7 ½-point favorite. The Middies have won four in a row and seven of their last eight, cashing in five of their last seven.
San Diego State snapped a two-game losing streak at home on Nov. 27 with a 48-14 win over UNLV as 24-point favorites. The Aztecs were tough-luck losers in all four of their losses this year, losing all four by a combined 15 points. The one thing they don’t do well is contain the rushing game, letting five of the last eight opponents outgain them on the ground.
Navy is averaging 289.6 yards per game on the ground and San Diego State has been allowing 135 rushing yards per contest this season. But don’t sell out on the run because Navy QB Ricky Dobbs can thrown the ball, with 12 TDs this season and just five INTs. He threw for 186 yards against Army two weeks ago and had his first INT in six games.
San Diego State does have a high-powered offense, so Navy will have to make the most of its scoring opportunities. The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS after a spread-cover. Navy is on several ATS streaks, including 13-6 in neutral site games, 5-1 in bowl games, 7-0 against winning teams and 6-0 as an underdog. Look for Navy to cash the ticket when this one is over.
4♦ NAVY
Chuck O'Brien
San Antonio (+2') at ORLANDO
For today's complimentary NBA selection – and by the way I’ve hit two straight NBA free plays and four of five comp selections overall – take the Spurs plus the points at Orlando.
Not exactly a difficult play to explain. San Antonio, which rallied past Denver 109-103 last night, is an NBA-best 24-3 overall, winning its last 10 in a row, and the Spurs are 9-1 on the road. Orlando is just 16-12, dropping four in a row and eight of its last nine (including three straight home losses to Atlanta, Philadelphia and Dallas).
Additionally, San Antonio continues to get the job done with its core “Big Three” of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, but the Magic’s season got so far off track that management swung a blockbuster trade Saturday, moving Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu (both formerly of the Suns) and Gilbert Arenas (formerly of the Wizards). So while the Spurs are as cohesive as they’ve ever been, Orlando is trying to work in two new players are expected to be key contributors.
Not so shockingly, the new trio of Richardson, Arenas and Turkoglu are a combined 13-for-53 for 48 points in their first two games together (Monday’s 91-81 loss at Atlanta and Tuesday’s 105-99 home loss to Dallas).
When these teams met exactly a month ago, the Spurs rolled to a 106-97 victory, and they’ve won and covered five of the last eight meetings. True, in last year’s trip to Orlando, San Antonio got drubbed 110-84 as a seven-point underdog. However, Parker missed that game with an injury, and two Magic players no longer with the team (Carter and Lewis) combined for 44 points. I highly doubt the Arenas-Richardson-Turkoglu trifecta will match that scoring output.
San Antonio is on ATS runs of 7-2-1 on the road, 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights, 7-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 13-3-1 versus the Southeast Division, 4-1 on Thursdays and 4-0 as an underdog (all of less than five points), while the Magic are in pointspread funks of 0-4 both overall and at home, 1-5 against the West, 0-5 versus teams with a winning record and 0-4 when laying less than five points.
Pretty easy call here, people!
5♦ SAN ANTONIO
Scott Delaney
San Antonio at ORLANDO (-2)
I'm not worried about the 10-game win streak and the Spurs.
Orlando needs a big win, and there would be none bigger at this point, as the Spurs come in boasting a 25-3 mark, the best in the league.
The home team is 3-0 both SU and ATS the last three meetings, while the host has won and covered seven of the last nine meetings.
I know the Magic have been struggling of late, but they've also endured some rigorous travel since the start of the month. Back home, the Magic need to get focused and get back on track.
Look for Orlando to roll to a rather easy win tonight.
1♦ ORLANDO
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee (-2) at SACRAMENTO
In the NBA, gonna take Milwaukee to build off of their improbable 98-79 win over the Lakers the other night, as the Bucks make the stop in Sacramento tonight to take on a skidding Kings team.
Sacramento has lost 6 in a row, and 14 of their last 15 straight up. Against the spread, things are not much better, as the Kings have dropped 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.
Sacto is also just 7-20 against the line their last 27 at home!
Milwaukee has won 3 of the last 4 series meetings straight up, and since they are only being asked to cover a basket or so, the chances of another series win and cover seem solid to the G-Man.
Take the Bucks to get us the bucks.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
Georgetown (-4') at MEMPHIS
Memphis' young squad will be no match for a physical Hoyas team that is ranked 10th in the nation and is looking for its second win over a ranked opponent.
Memphis, ranked 16th, has been playing down to its opponents lately, and I'm not so sure it's ready to take on a team like the Hoyas.
I watched the Tigers go down by 15 against Austin Peay, and end up winning in overtime, 70-68. That was last week. This past Monday the team was taken to the brink by Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in a 68-63 win.
The last time the Tigers faced a big-time opponent was Dec. 7, and Kansas rolled to an 81-68 win.
I'm much more comfortable with the senior-oriented Hoyas lineup and a team that has much more experience than the Tigers.
Lay the slim chalk, yes, even on the road, and roll with the better basketball team
2♦ GEORGETOWN
Craig Davis
Georgetown (-4') at MEMPHIS
Tonight's free play is on Georgetown as a small road favorite over Memphis.
Tell me this... why is Georgetown a road favorite when Memphis has lost only one game (a road game at Kansas) and they are perfect at home? Something's not right. Shouldn't Memphis be the favorite here?
Exactly, that's what the general public is thinking and they are pounding the underdog Tigers and yet the line isn't moving. I have a feeling the oddsmakers in Las Vegas know the Hoyas are the right side of this game and they are continuing to invite Memphis money.
I backed the Tigers in that Kansas game (+12 1/2) as a small play and was disgusted to lost by a half point. But I've been watching them this year and I was disgusted to see them fall behind by 15 points to Austin Peay before winning 70-68 in overtime.
Then the Tigers were taken to the wire with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi before winning by five. Overall, I'm still not impressed with the Tigers and I think they've feasted off a very soft schedule thus far, losing their toughest game of the schedule.
Georgetown's only loss came by three at Temple, a team they have always had problems with. Aside from that, coach Thompson's crew has played very well early on and they are one of the favorites to win the Big East this year.
Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Julian Vaughn are the three senior leaders for the Hoyas and account for about 75% of Georgetown's offense this year. As long as two of those three are hitting, these guys are going to be hard to beat.
Freeman averages a team-high 18.5 points per game and hits better than 35% of his long range shots. As a whole, Georgetown shoots the ball very well from behind the arc and that's one of Memphis's struggles.
Georgetown won the last meeting with Memphis, 79-70 in overtime, and that was back when Memphis was bigger, better, and more experienced. I'll take my chances with the Hoyas as a small road favorite.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Michael Cannon
Georgetown (-4') at MEMPHIS
Take the Georgetown Hoyas as the road chalk over Memphis for your free Thursday winner.
Memphis is too inexperienced to get past Georgetown. The Tigers use four true freshmen in their rotation and that’s just asking for trouble against the Hoyas.
Georgetown has already proved its mettle with a win at Old Dominion and an overtime win against Missouri in a game played at Kansas City.
The Hoyas are a deft shooting team that is hitting above 50 percent from the field, including 42 percent from beyond the arc.
Lay the points with Georgetown for the win and cover.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Stephen Nover
Texas-El Paso at BYU (-11)
I'd like to offer a Thursday college basketball comp play on BYU to cover at home against UTEP.
The 23rd-ranked Cougars should be pumped for this matchup, their first home game in a month. BYU rebounded from last Saturday's disappointing loss at UCLA, their first setback of the season, with a win - but no cover - at Weber State a few nights ago.
After eight straight games played away from home, the Cougars should be better now that they're back in Provo where they've outscored their four opponents this season by an average of 33 points.
Guard Jimmer Fredette is playing at a high level, averaging 28 points in the last four games for BYU. The Cougars beat UTEP, 83-77, last year in El Paso, a game that Fredette missed because of illness.
The Miners have yet to play a ranked opponent so this is a big step-up in class for them. They're also 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they've faced a Mountain West Conference team.
3♦ BYU
VEGAS EXPERTS
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Carolina is one of the most anemic offensive teams in NFL history. They average just 13.1 points per game and this is the best defense they'll have faced all season. They've gone Under in back to back games. Pittsburgh has gone Under in four of its last five games and the offense has scored just three touchdowns in the last 15 quarters.
Play on: Under
LT Profits
Georgetown -4
We are usually not in the habit of giving points on the road vs. 9-1 teams in NCAAB matchups, but we simply feel that the 10-1 Georgetown Hoyas have a more impressive resume than the 9-1 Memphis Tigers, and the fact that they are more battle tested should overcome the fact that this game is being played at FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The college basketball latest line from Bookmaker for this contest is Georgetown -4, with the betting odds set at -110.
Granted, the only loss by Memphis came vs. a Kansas team that is ranked second in the Pomeroy Ratings and closed the gap between themselves and top-tanked Duke with a big win at California last night, but none of the Tigers nine wins have come vs. a team ranked in the Pomeroy top 60. The highest ranked Pomeroy team Memphis has beaten is Miami FL at 65, and their other eight wins all came vs. teams ranked 110th or worse!
Furthermore, the Tigers are just 2-6 against the NCAAB odds despite facing that very weak schedule, and if that is not bad a enough, they just barely got by Texas A&M – Corpus Christi 68-63 in a non-lined game on Monday night while shooting just 21-of-53 (39.6 percent) from the floor.
The Hoyas, meanwhile, are three points from being undefeated with their only loss being by a 68-65 count on the road at 29th ranked Temple, and they also have three wins over teams in the Pomeroy Top 50. While Memphis has struggled badly in NCAAB betting despite facing an easy schedule, Georgetown has been just the opposite, owning one of the best ATS records in the country at 8-2 vs. stiff competition.
We will go ahead and lay the reasonable spot on the road here with the tougher team from the much stronger Big East Conference in this NCAAB matchup.