Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -2
The Bucks have the edge in Sacramento tonight, considering the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Also, the Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Sacramento. The Kings are one of the very worst investments in the NBA. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the Bucks are an impressive 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lay the points.
EZWINNERS
San Antonio Spurs +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be looking to pick up an 11th consecutive victory for the second time this season when they visit the Amway Center tonight. The new look Magic are struggling and a loss in this game against the Spurs would be Orlando's ninth loss in ten games. Orlando lost five of six prior to Saturday's blockbuster trades that brought in Gilbert Arenas from Washington and Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu from Phoenix, but the situation hasn't gotten any better as of yet. The new acquisitions have been with the Magic for two games, a 91-81 loss at Atlanta on Monday and a 105-99 defeat against Dallas on Tuesday, but they have not contributed much to the cause as the trio is shooting a combined 13 for 53 for only 24.5 percent. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker combined for 49 points and 19 assists during the win over the Magic in November and I expect another big game from the duo. Wrong team is favored in my opinion, take the points.
O.C. Dooley
Panthers / Steelers Over 37.5
The key to this total is the absence of Pittsburgh secondary star Troy Polamalu who will miss a second consecutive contest due to a strained achillies tendon. This past Sunday without him in the lineup, the Steelers for the first time in 5 outings played OVER a “deflated” total and we have a similar setup here. The past eighteen times Pittsburgh has had Troy Polamalu in the starting lineup, the defense has allowed only 14.8 points per game, while creating 41 different turnovers. However, the last dozen times Polamalu has been OUT of the lineup, that same Steelers stop-unit has surrendered an average of 23 points per contest, while forcing just 11 turnovers. The oddsmakers had no choice but to keep this total down as Carolina (13 points per game average) has the worst offense in the entire NFL, with the league’s lowest-rated passer as rookie Jimmy Clausen has completed only 52% of his pass attempts. But the fact of the matter is Carolina has actually gained substantial rush yards on the ground in consecutive contests, which takes some of the pressure off a young and inexperienced quarterback. In the last four contests Carolina veteran Jonathan Stewart has rushed for 460 yards, averaging a healthy 6 yards per carry. Another critical factor regarding tonight’s total is that after a two-game absence Pittsburgh WILL get back lead tight end Heath Miller (concussion) which will give their struggling quarterback a vital receiving option. In the past 4 games the Steelers have produced only FOUR offensive touchdowns, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger limping on a gimpy leg tossing just 3 touchdowns along the way. What this means is that we have a pair of “undervalued” offenses taking the field this evening and I am taking advantage. Normally at this time of the year weather is an issue in the Northeast, but there will be only snow flurries tonight with the projected low temperatures in the mid-20’s which is not that bad for the Steel City. As the evening progresses the wind speed will “lessen” which gives us room for both teams to create a passing attack. My database research indicates that dating all the way back to the 1992 season, Carolina is a dazzling 10-2 OVER/ROAD after losing 6 times in a seven-game span outright