SPORTS ADVISORS
HAWAII BOWL
(at Honolulu)
SMU (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS)
In just his second year at Southern Methodist, coach June Jones has the Mustangs back in a bowl game for the first time in 25 years, and they’ll face the country’s top rushing team in Nevada at Aloha Stadium.
SMU won four of its final five games (2-3 ATS) and finished tied with Houston atop the Conference USA West Division. The Mustangs concluded the regular season with a 26-21 home win over Tulane, coming up well short as a 19½-point favorite. The underdog covered 10 of SMU’s 11 lined contests this year, including the last five in a row. The only exception was the Mustangs’ 38-15 loss at Houston as a 16-point underdog, a result that kept SMU from playing in the Conference USA championship game.
Nevada had an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) snapped in a 44-33 loss at unbeaten Boise State on Nov. 27, a game that decided the Western Athletic Conference champion. But the Wolf Pack got a late score to cash as an 11½-point underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover. Nevada scored at least 31 points in each of its final nine games, tallying more than 50 five times and more than 60 four times. Prior to the Boise State contest, the favorite had gone 8-3 ATS in the Pack’s first 11 outings.
The Wolf Pack boast the country’s No. 1 rushing attack at 362.3 yards per game, and they became the first time in NCAA history to have three players rush for more than 1,000 yards, with Vai Taua leading the way with 1,345 yards (10 TDs), followed by QB Colin Kaepernick (1,160 yards, 16 rushing TDs) and Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, 9 TDs). However, Taua (ineligible) and Lippincott (injury) have been ruled out for this game.
SMU hasn’t been in a bowl game since 1984 when it beat Notre Dame, but a year later the Mustangs were on probation for recruiting violations and three years later the NCAA shut down the program for continued violations. The Mustangs, who went 1-11 in Jones’ first year in 2008, enjoyed the single biggest turnaround in Division I-A this year.
Nevada fell 42-35 to Maryland in last year’s Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, getting upset as a 2½-point favorite. The Wolf Pack are making their fifth straight postseason appearance, but the only win during this run came back in 2005 when they beat Central Florida 49-48 in this Hawaii Bowl, failing to cover as a 3½-point favorite.
These teams haven’t met since they were WAC rivals earlier this decade. In the most recent clash in 2004, SMU beat Nevada 38-20 as a five-point home ‘dog after losing the previous three seasons (1-2 ATS).
In addition to being the nation’s most prolific rushing team, the Wolf Pack rank second in the country with 521.6 total yards per game and fifth in scoring at 40.6 points per contest. Defensively, Nevada surrenders 27.2 points and 399.6 total yards per game, but just 115.3 rushing ypg.
The Mustangs averaged 30 points and 394.4 total yards per contest over their final five games. They are led by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who ran for 1,125 yards and nine TDs, and WR Emmanuel Sanders who holds the school record for catches in a season (91) and receiving yards (1,215). The problem has been SMU’s defense, which is allowing 29.1 points and 404 yards per game (169.2 rushing ypg). The Mustangs yielded 30-plus points in seven of their 11 Division I-A games.
The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, however they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Nevada is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 14-3 as a favorite of more than 10 points.
SMU has topped the total in 16 of its last 21 after a straight-up win and five of six against WAC schools, but the under for the Mustangs is on runs of 7-3-1 as an underdog and 15-5-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points. The Wolf Pack are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall and 7-3 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA
Pointwise
NEVADA (8-4) vs SMU (7-5)
June Jones returns to Hawaii. That, of course, is the obvious lead story in this
game. As former head coach of the Hawaii Rainbows, he wrote a chapter that
may never be matched, & that includes the greatest turnaround in NCAA Div1A
history, when the 'Bows followed their 0-12 '98 mark, with a spectacular 9-4
log in '99, which included a 23-17 win over OregonSt in the Oahu Bowl, as 8½
pt dogs. That, by the way, was his initial season at Hawaii's helm. Simply
unbelievable! Well, he has nearly succeeded in duplicating that feat with the
'Stangs (altho it has taken him 2 years), as LY's 1-11 mark has morphed into
TY's 7-5 record, once more, the biggest turnaround in the nation this season,
with the result an SMU bowl spot for the first time since 1984. As can be seen
above, & much like his Hawaii era, the Ponies do it mainly overhead, behind
the duo of Mitchell & Padron. But, whereas in '08, when they ranked dead last
in the nation, overland (41 ypg), they've raised that mark by 72 ypg, with 1,125
RYs from McNeal. They're also 25 notches ahead of LY's 118th standing in
total "D". But that unit had better be at its absolute best, if it is to contain the
nation's most feared overland game. For the Wolf Pack of Nevada, this marks
their 5th straight bowl season, with just a single win (49-48) to show for their
efforts, including an embarrassing 114 RYs in a 42-35 loss to Maryland in LY's
Humanitarian. But TY, they are nearly unstoppable, behind the first-ever triad
of 1,000-yd rushers: Tuau, Kaepernick, & Lippincott. Try 7.8, 7.8, & 7.7 ypr for
that trio. Try 559, 454, 517, 461, & 574 RYs in an 8-game run, in which they
averaged 51.6 ppg. Jones, as a 2-TD dog is tempting, but not vs this machine.
PROPHECY: NEVADA 48 - Smu 24
RATING: 1
POWERSWEEP
These two were WAC rivals from ‘00-’04 and UN holds a 3-2 SU edge (2-3 ATS) in the series. SMU is making its 1st bowl appearance S/’84, which ended the 4th longest drought in the NCAA. Ironically, their last bowl trip was also to Hawaii, as they beat ND 27-20 (+1’) in the Aloha Bowl. SMU also posted the largest turnaround in the NCAA, going from 1-11 in HC Jones’ 1st ssn to 7-5 TY. This is a homecoming for Jones as he coached at Hawaii from ‘99-’07. He led UH to 6 bowls, incl the ‘07 Sugar. He has a 4-2 (3-3 ATS) career record in bowls. UN is no stranger to Aloha Stadium as it plays here every other yr vs Hawaii and was last here in ‘08. UN is making its 5th consec bowl appearance and is 3-6 SU (1-4 ATS) in all-time bowl gms (1-5 SU, 1-3 ATS under HC Ault). The ‘09 ssn was a historical one for UN. On Oct 9th, Ault posted his 200th career victory to become just the 6th active coach in FBS to reach that mark. UN became the 1st tm in NCAA hist to feature 3 players with 1,000 yds rush in 1 ssn. UN is playing its best ball of the ssn winning 8 of its L/9 SU while also covering 7 of the L/9 (incl L/4). UN is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs bowl-elig tms outscoring them 35-34 and outgaining them 480-445. SMU played 5 bowls tms and went just 1-4 SU, but was 4-1 ATS. They were outscored 34-25 and outgained 409-324. UN features 7 Sr’s among their 14 upperclass starters, while the Ponies have 6 Sr’s out of just 11 upperclassmen starters. UN went 3-3 ATS on the road, but was 2-0 as a DD fav. SMU went 4-2 ATS away from home and pulled 2 outright upsets as a DD dog.
After stumbling out of the gate with an 0-3 start avg just 364 ypg and 180 ypg rush (5.1), UN’s off simply exploded from Oct on. Beginning with a 773 yd outburst vs UNLV (incl 559 rush), UN went on to avg 574 ypg and an astounding 423 rush ypg (8.1) the last 9 gms while avg nearly 5 rush TD per gm en route to becoming the NCAA’s #1 rush off. Ault, the mastermind behind the “Pistol” off, developed the formation several yrs ago to generate more of a run gm out of an off still designed to pass the ball. The key component of this off and its effectiveness is the outstanding run-blocking of the OL (aka “The Union”) and QB Kaepernick with his dual-threat ability and steady decision making. The Union (6’5” 300 avg) has opened gaping holes for the backfield to run through (362 ypg, 7.6). Kaepernick and RB’s Taua and Lippincott (out for bowl) each avg 7.7+ ypc and all 3 eclipsed the 1,000 yd plateau making NCAA history. WR Wimberly leads the tm in rec and earned WAC FOY honors. Defensively, UN features the WAC’s top DE combo in Moch (WAC DPY) and Basped. The duo comb for 30 tfl TY and UN entered ‘09 as the only tm in the country to ret 2 plyrs who recorded DD sk totals from ‘08 (Moch 11.5, Basped 10.5). UN’s DL also meshes well with one of the top LB units in the WAC in Bethea, Marshall and Johnson (#2, 3 and 4 on tm) and has been stout vs the run limiting tms to 3.7 ypc. It’s been the Pack’s inability to stop foes through the air (284 ypg, 60%, 31-8 ratio) that has been the defense’s sore spot this year (#110 in the our pass D). UN’s PK is somewhat untested as Drake has the fewest FG att in the nation (8). P Langley avg 40.6 yards per punt (37.1 net) with 14 landing inside the 20.
The Mustangs’ Run n’ Shoot offense was more balanced in the 2nd yr of the system as they avg 380 ypg, with a surprising 113 ypg (3.8) coming on the ground and is our #82 off. That is a huge improvement after the Mustangs avg’d just 41 rush yds (2.3) LY. Miami, FL trans RB McNeal became HC Jones’ 1st 1,000 yd rusher. It will be interesting to see who lineups under center as LY’s starter Mitchell DNP QB the L/5 (shldr). He may be 100% by this game, but True Fr Padron could get the call. He started the 5 gms in Mitchell’s absence and avg 244 ypg (64.4%) with a 8-4 ratio on the yr. WR Sanders is SMU’s all-time leading receiver. He has twice as many catches TY as the #2 option. The Mustangs OL avg 6’3” 292 and features 4 Soph starters. They led they way for 3.8 ypc and allowed 34 sks (7.9%). The D improved from LY, but still rank #92 all’g 404 ypg (169 rush) and 29 ppg. The DL in SMU’s 3-4 avg 6’3” 281 and accounted for 10.5 of the team’s 20 sks and all’d 4.4 ypc. LB Kennemer led with 126 tkls. The secondary led by Sr Dennis (4 int) is #38 in our pass D rankings, all’g 235 ypg (56%) with a 19-16 ratio. The Ponies have our #96 ST’s, but PR Sanders (15.4 avg) had a PR TD (79 yds).
While it’s difficult to go against this potent Wolf Pack offense, SMU has not only given us a 5H LPS Winner but the dog in Mustang games is now 11-1 ATS. Nevada struggles vs passing teams and SMU has a trio of WR’s that can play with anyone. With the great turnaround (largest in the NCAA TY), SMU will be excited and focused being in a bowl their HC has lobbied for the past month.
FORECAST: SMU (+) Nevada by 5
RATING: 2* SMU
Charlie Scott
SMU vs. Nevada
Play: Under 72
Always think Under first in games with high totals like this, everything has to go right for both teams in order to cash an Over ticket. Nevada will be running their pistol offense without their 2 top Running Backs SMU was 11-1 Under 73 for the season, while Nevada went 8-4 Under 73 for the season.
ALEX SMART
Mustangs @ Nevada
PICK: Over 72.5
Two teams that are heading in opposite directions for their football gambling fans wrap up their 2009 NCAA football betting season at the Hawaii Bowl, when the SMU Mustangs (7-5, 6-5 ATS) tango with the Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 7-5 ATS).
Freshman QB Kyle Padron has taken over the reins of the SMU offense and has done quite well in his five starts. He has completed 64.4% of his passes for 1,462 yards and eight TDs against four picks in HC June Jones' wild pass happy offense. However, unlike when he was at Hawaii, Jones has implemented a rushing attack as well at Southern Methodist. The Mustangs are led on the ground by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who rushed for 1,122 yards and nine scores this year. Nevada ranks 119th in the country against the pass though, which could lead to a huge day for the SMU offense.
Nevada's offensive successes have been well-documented this season. The team ranks #2 in the land in total 'O' at 522.2 yards per game and is by far the most potent rushing attack that the country has to offer at 362.8 yards per game. QB Colin Kaepernick will be wrapping up his third season as the starting signal caller for the Wolfpack. He has rushed for 1,160 yards and 16 scores on the season. Kaepernick is one of three rushers to accumulate at least 1,000 yards on the ground, but neither RB Vai Taua (1,345 yards) or RB Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards) will be active for the Hawaii Bowl. However, with SMU's defense ranking just 92nd overall, it may not matter who is the back behind Kaepernick in the pistol offense. Success may be inevitable.
The Hawaii Bowl has perennially been one of the highest scoring match-ups of the entire bowl season. There’s just something about the islands that brings out the best and worst of the participants respective offenses and defenses. Even though Nevada will be without a pair of major components to the offense, I believe their scheme, rather than the players themselves, will allow the offense to succeed. SMU’s “D” won’t strike fear into Kaepernick and company. As for SMU, it should really be able to flex its muscles offensively as it throws a balanced attack at HC Ault’s kids. In a game that should be wildly entertaining, look for the Mustangs and Wolf Pack to play in another high scorer at Aloha Stadium.
EZWINNERS
SMU / Nevada Under 72.5
Both of these teams have high flying offenses, but Vegas has set this number too high in my oppinion. SMU and Nevada will both run the ball enough to eat up some time and keep the total just shy of this number.
SPORTS WAGERS
S. Methodist U +12½ over Nevada
The Wolfpack put up some pretty sick offensive numbers but its weak schedule contributed significantly to that. They also play in the extremely weak WAC and that, too, contributed to its skewed stats. Don’t get me wrong, Nevada does have some talented players at the skilled positions but they’re not as good as their numbers suggest. In fact, a close look reveals that the Wolfpack played two teams all year that at the time of the game were ranked and lost them both. They opened the year against the then ranked Irish (that ranking is a distant memory) and were buried 35-0. They proceeded to lose the next two before going on a eight-game winning streak and subsequently lost its last game of the year, 44-33 to #6 Boise St. In between all that they had some unimpressive wins at best and that includes a three-point win over Utah St and a very disturbing loss to the 3-9 Colorado St. Rams. Now they’re asked to spot 12½ points to a Mustang team that went 7-5 and were pretty much in every game they played with the exception of games against Nationally ranked TCU and Houston. Also note that June Jones coaches SMU and he coached Hawaii for years before moving onto SMU. The point is he knows this place well and he knows what it takes to win here. For a bunch of young college kids, traveling and playing in Hawaii is a dream come true and minds can wander, as there are a ton of distractions at this exotic location. That’s where Jones’ experience and knowledge of playing here will be huge and not only can SMU stay well within this range, they can win outright. Play: Southern Methodist +12½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Joel Tyson
For Christmas Eve, I am also taking the OVER in the only game in town on Christmas Eve, as I don't think there is any way in the world this SMU-Nevada game doesn't see less than 80 combined points.
Neither team can consistently stop the other, and that doesn't bode well in looking for a low-scoring game.
The Wolfpack have scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games!
The Mustangs have scored 26 points or more in each of their last 5 games!
If those teams stay near those totals on Thursday, we will land OVER the total.
Merry Christmas to one and all, and enjoy this shootout from Honolulu.
5♦ OVER
Michael Cannon
SMU vs. Nevada , at Honolulu, HI
I am now 49-34-3 with my last 86 free plays.
Take the under in tonight’s Hawaii Bowl between SMU and Nevada.
There’s no question both teams can score. Nevada set a record with three 1,000-yard rushers this season and June Jones brought his run-and-shoot offense with him from the University of Hawaii.
But this total still seems a bit too high for my liking.
First off, two of Nevada’s 1,000-yard rushers won’t play tonight. Luke Lippincott is out with an injury, and Vai Taua has been ruled academically ineligible. Now it’s not like the Wolfpack will go into the tank without them, but they will lose some of their big play ability which will help keep this one low.
As far as SMU, they have been playing without quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for the last five games after he sustained a shoulder injury. Freshman Kyle Padron stepped in and did nicely, but you have to wonder how the youngster will fare on this big of a stage.
The under is on a 7-3-1 run for the Mustangs when they are listed as an underdog and 15-5-1 when they are a dog of more than 10 points.
Take the under as this one stays below the posted total.
2♦ UNDER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the SMU/Nevada football game UNDER the total. It's not that I don't think these two teams can get there, but 72 points is asking a lot out of these two teams. It's asking a lot out of any two teams, no matter how many points they averaged in the regular season. In fact, if you take the averages of what each team scored per game this year it still doesn't equal 72, and the two teams combine to allow just 56 or 57 points per game. Plus if you factor in the the loss of two Nevada starting RBs, I think the writing is on the wall. Nevada loves to run the football and SMU has already come out and said the best way to beat the Wolfpack is to run it down their throats. If both teams are running, the clock is also running and UNDERS usually take place with all that ground game going on. Free play of the day on the UNDER tonight.
2♦ UNDER