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LA Clippers -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking these Clippers tonight late as it looks way to easy imo to grab the 8.5 points..... These Boston Celts as "we had them Christmas day vs the Nets" are not the way to go late Thursday on TNT... Power Rated @ - 11 .. the 22-6 Clippers are SCARY good at home... Jamal Crawford off the bench is a powerful force.... #'s are strong Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games & Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Clip show 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
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L.A. CLIPPERS -8½ over BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clippers are on a 14-game winning streak and their average margin of victory has been 15 points. No reason it can’t continue here. It’s not just Chris Paul and Blake Griffin either. The Clip Joint possesses the top bench in the league, averaging an eye-popping 42 points a game. They can play any style too, whether it’s a fast paced run and gun style, as was on display against Denver on Christmas or they can shut you down defensively. L.A. has held 13 of its last 15 opponents under 100 and five of those they held to under 80.
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The Celtics went into Brooklyn on Christmas day and whacked the free-falling Nets. They can do that to teams like Brooklyn, that plod up and down the court. Against this deep, talented, explosive and confident bunch they cannot. Once again the C’s age, lack of offense and it’s very ordinary defense will be exposed.
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DUKE +9½ -over CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke really stumbled down the stretch with four losses in a row but they had already clinched a Bowl birth and played Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami. That was as tough a quartet as any team in the nation had to face and it likely helped to prepare the Blue Devils for this much fairer fight. Duke QB Sean Renfree, now in his fourth year, was tutored by renowned QB coach David Cutcliffe, who went 4-1 in bowl games as head coach at Ole Miss. Renfree is the only QB in the FBS sporting three receivers with more than 60 catches.
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Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as good as advertised. They played very few quality passing teams this year and when they did play a couple they were exposed. Renfree will find open receivers all day. The Bearcats offense is expected to score some points and we can’t make an argument against that. However, Cinci’s Head Coach Butch Jones, both coordinators and two more assistants have all left for Tennessee, leaving this group too many disadvantages to overcome against an inspired, well-coached foe playing in front of a partisan crowd in North Carolina. Upset alert is on.
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San Jose State -7 over Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons of Bowling Green are the MAC’s conference fourth team to appear in a bowl game already this year and there’s more coming. However, unlike other bowl participants, the Falcons have played what might be the nation's weakest slate of opposing offenses. No Ball State, Northern Illinois or Toledo and they haven't seen a passing attack that's anywhere near as productive as San Jose State's.
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Spartans quarterback David Fales has thrown for 3,800 yards with a 31-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. SJSU also played a tougher schedule than Bowling Green and posted a 10-2 record. One has to wonder where the Falcons points are going to come from with such a predictable and unimaginative group. The Falcons' dreadful special teams unit is a serious liability as well, which should lead to some short fields for Fales to exploit. Lastly, Spartans Head Coach Mike MacIntyre is out the door, headed to Colorado. Interim Coach, Kent Bauer is on the short list of possible replacements and he figures to be extra prepped in what has to be considered his audition. The players love this guy and will respond accordingly. No units risked.
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Baylor +3 over UCLA
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Definitely not interested in spotting points with a Bruins team that has zero momentum heading into this one and that sports a coaching staff that can’t be trusted to make the right adjustments against this offensive juggernaut. The Bruins come in after back-to-back losses to Stanford to close out the year. Not only does that have to linger for a close to a month, but it also took away UCLA’S dreams of playing in the Rose Bowl. Playing in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl is not what the Bruins had in mind and one has to question just how motivated UCLA will be.
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Baylor closed out the season with three straight wins. First, they knocked off then #1 K-State, thus preventing the Wildcats from playing for the national championship. Subsequently, in a letdown spot against Texas Tech, they won in OT. As if that wasn’t enough, an encore followed with them beating #23 Oklahoma State in the final game of the year. The Bears finished the year by covering five straight, they bring much more momentum than the Bruins and they’re getting points. That works. No units risked.
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Baylor Bears +3
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Baylor leads the nation in total offense with 578.8 yards per game. Breaking this down further, we find that the Bears average an impressive 7.0 yards per play. They also rank a more than respectable fifth in scoring with 44.1 yards per game.
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Baylor’s offense might be a little too much for UCLA to handle considering the Bruins are on a 2-10 against the spread slide in road/neutral field contests versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards or more per game. The Bruins have lost by an average score of 40.8 to 19.4 to these teams.
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Despite a poor defense, the Baylor offense has been good enough to win shootouts, even against good offensive teams. Consider that the Bears are 6-0 against the spread this season versus very good offensive teams that average 34.0 points or more per game. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 48.7 to 45.2.
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Baylor is at its best offensively where UCLA happens to be at its worst defensively. The Bears, who rank third in the nation in passing offense with 353.2 yards per game, should be able to take advantage of a UCLA defense that ranks 94th against the pass with 255.4 yards allowed per game.
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The Bears enter the postseason with a ton of confidence. They went 4-1 down the stretch and covered the number in each of these five contests. They finished the season with three straight impressive wins over Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
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Baylor is on an impressive 10-2 against the spread run versus good teams that carry a winning percentage of .600 to .750.
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Dallas Mavericks +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dallas Mavericks are showing some of their best value of the season as a 10.5-point road underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas just recently got Dirk Nowitzki back from injury, and it is finally getting healthy as a team and back to full strength at the right time.
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The Mavericks have had three days' rest since their worst performance of the season. They lost 91-129 at San Antonio on Sunday, and there's no question that this team will be highly motivated to bounce back. They have played the Heat, Grizzlies and Spurs in succession, so they are certainly battle-tested. These three days off will do them a lot of good.
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Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot here. It played the defending champion Miami Heat in an NBA Finals rematch on Christmas Day, falling 97-103 on the road. The Thunder had a lot invested emotionally in that game as they wanted payback, but came up short. Now, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect tonight against a hungry Dallas team.
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The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
Charlie Sports
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers
The (14-13) Boston Celtics of the NBA Eastern Conference Atlantic division will take on the (22-6) Los Angeles Clippers of the Western Conference Pacific division in 2012 NBA action. Boston has dropped 4 of their last 6 NBA Play's Against The Spread, but beat the Nets as a underdog on Christmas day. The Clippers are 6-1 ATS their last 7 vs. Boston. The Clippers are also 8-2 ATS their last 10 overall. Clippers get the home cover.
Hollywood Sports
New Mexico at Cincinnati
Prediction: Under
New Mexico (12-1) looks to rebound from their 70-65 loss to San Diego State and they should tighten things up on the defensive end as they have played 20 of their last 29 games following a loss Under the Total. The Lobos have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Big East. Cincinnati (12-0) comes off a 65-58 win versus Wright State as a 18-point favorite and they have played 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Lobos are 2-0 on the road this season and the Bearcats have played 14 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And Cincy has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Big East. Take the Under in this one.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Clippers -8 ½
This matchup features the aging Celtics who easily outlasted Brooklyn on Christmas Day, 93-76. It was, however, just their first road win in their last six outings. It also sets up this strong situational play for the home standing Clippers. Better teams playing at home as a single digit fav, following a home win of 10 or more, are 52-24 ATS (68%) against an opponent coming off a double digit divisional win. With Doc Rivers just 30-51 ATS following a road win of 10 or more points, we comfortably suit up with the LA Clippers who are on a 14-0 SU run, averaging 105 PPG with the best bench in the NBA
Jeff Scott Sports
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UCLA -3 over Baylor: That’s mainly because they can play some defense. The UCLA defense isn’t special overall as they have allowed 26 ppg and 410 ypg, but that is FAR better than a Baylor defense that has allowed 523 ypg and 38 ppg on the year. Versus this year’s bowl squad it’s even worse as the Bruins have allowed 28 ppg and 412 ypg, while Baylor’s defense has allowed 42 ppg and 552 ypg. That is unreal and it’s the UCLA defense that gives them a big edge here. The offensive edge does go to Baylor, but UCLA’s offense is no slouch as they have averaged a healthy 35 ppg overall, including 37 ppg vs bowl teams. The Bruins have more than enough firepower to put up allot of points on this Baylor defense, while the Bruin defense will come up with enough stops to get the cover in this one.
Duke/ Cincinnati Over 60.5: The Bearcat offense has been one of the best in the Big East this year, as they have averaged 430.8 ypg and 31 ppg. Tonight they have a huge chance on increasing those numbers as they face a Duke squad that was horrible on defense down the stretch. For the year the Blue Devils come in 105th in total defense (462 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35 ppg), but in their last 4 games this unit has been horrendous, allowing 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg over that stretch. Offensively, Duke has been a solid group led by Sean Renfree. The Blue Devils have averaged 31.3 ppg on the year and capped their regular season by putting up 45 points on Miami. Duke is thrilled to be in the bowl game and you can bet they will go all out offensively to win it. The Bearcats will score a bunch off of this weak duke defense, while the Devils will get their share of points off a good Cincinnati defense. Duke games have averaged 66 ppg, with 9 of their 12 games putting up 61 or more points. I expect 65+ in this one.
Bowing Green/ San Jose State Under 44.5: Gave away part of my writeup in Nicks thread, but will reiterate those points here. San Jose State has a vaunted passing attack, but most of that damage was done vs weak WAC defenses. Outside the WAC the Spartans have faced a couple of tough defenses in BYU and Stanford and in those games they did throw for 516 total yards, but put up just 37 points in the two games. Let's also note that in their lone game on the East Coast this year (Vs Navy), they were able to muster just 12 points and 388 yards of offense. The Spartans have absolutely no running game (104th in nation) and that means that Bowling green's 7th ranked passing defense (173 ypg) can just concentrate on the Spartan passing game. Overall this Bowling defense has been stellar this year, allowing just 15.8 ppg (8th) and 289.7 ppg and San Jose state has averaged just 23 ppg vs bowl teams this year. The Bowling Green offense is very conservative as they come in 87th in total offense and 93rd in scoring (23.2 ppg), plus they have averaged just 16 ppg vs bowl teams this year. This is a run first offense and that should eat clock and they are just 81st in the nation in passing. The Spartans defense is not all that bad and if ya throw out the games vs La Tech and Utah State then they have allowed just 16.5 ppg on the year. High winds should keep the offenses grounded and allow these two very good defenses to keep the scoring low. Mid 30's at best here.
Jeff Scott Sports
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New Mexico/ Cincinnati Under 135: Both of these teams teams have played some high scoring games, but most of that was vs very weak competition. Cincinnati is off three games vs Marshall, Xavier and Wright State and, while they are not the best of competition, they are still normal lined teams. In those games there has been an average of 119.7 ppg, plus we note that in an earlier game vs Alabama just 114 points were scored in that one. Cincinnati really seems to play the tougher games a little close to the vest and I expect they will tonight as well. The Lobos are 12-1 on the year and they have an excellent defense that has allowed just 62.6 ppg on 40.6% shooting and while the Bearcats average 79.3 ppg they arev not a great shooting team, hitting just 44.6% of their shots, plus they are just 61.4% from the FT line. The Lobo's also score well, but they don't shot all that well either, hitting just 42.1% of their shots. The Lobo's should have a tough time on offense vs a very tough Bearcat defense that allows just 57.7 ppg on 34.6% shooting overall and 56.9 pg on 33.4% shooting at home. I don't expect either offense to get in much of a flow vs a couple of very solid defensive teams. Look for less than 130 in this one.
TROY -3 over Florida Atlantic: The Trojans haven't been all that great at home as they are just 3-3 here, but the Owls have been bad on the road, going 1-5. The owls are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Owls average just 61.5 ppg and shoot 35.1% from the field on the road, while being outscored by 16.3 ppg in those contests. The Owls also struggle on the defensive end on the road as they allow 77.8 ppg on 44.8% shooting and that should allow a mediocre Trojan offense to get going a bit here. I look for the Trojans to win this one rather easily.
Steve Janus
Celtics +8.5
The Clippers are over-valued due to their 14-game winning streak. The Celtics will be playing with a ton of confidence after their 93-76 win at Brooklyn on Christmas Day. I will gladly take the 8.5-points in what I believe will be a defensive battle. Boston has covered the spread in 56% of their games as a road underdog under head coach Doc Rivers. They are an even better 61% as a road underdog of 6.5-12 points.