WUNDERDOG
Arkansas Pine Bluff at UTEP
Pick: Ark Pine Bluff +17.5
The UTEP Miners stepped-up vs. a pair of BCS Conference teams with wins over Auburn and Clemson, making them look legit here as king-sized chalk. What they have been guilty of is lackluster play vs. less than formidable teams, resulting in an 18-point loss to Steven F. Austin, and a 9-point loss to Texas San Antonio. They get the ultimate inferior opponent tonight in facing the 1-10 Arkansas Pine Bluff squad, so a less than "A" game effort is quite likely. Look for Arkansas Pine Bluff to sneak in under the huge number in this one. Play on Arkansas Pine Bluff.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -5½
The Dallas Mavericks have opened with a brutal schedule, and they clearly haven't been up to the challenge. It appears it's going to take a while for this team to get over their championship from last season. Players from that title team clearly aren't motivated in the early going.
Miami got their revenge with a 105-94 victory over Dallas in the opener, which was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Denver Nuggets also crushed the Mavericks 93-115 in their following game. Now, it's Oklahoma City's time for revenge.
The Thunder are going to be highly motivated heading into this one after losing to Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last year. This team already appears to be on a mission after opening the season 3-0, including a 98-95 road victory over Memphis last night.
The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Dallas is 15-35-2 ATS in their last 51 Thursday games. The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Nuggets/Trail Blazers UNDER 203
The Blazers fit perfectly into a very profitable "unders" situation tonight. Plays under on any team (Portland) that is coming off a win of 10 points or more and is matched up against an opponent that checks in off 2 straight wins of 15 points or more are 43-17 (71.7%) the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have combined to score just 192.7 points on average. Denver isn't nearly as explosive offensively on the road and is 8-2-2 under in its last 12 road games as a result. The under is also 4-0 in the Trail Blazers' last 4 games following a win. We'll take the Under.
Steve Janus
Florida State -3½
My money is on the Seminoles to take down the Fighting Irish by at least 4-poitns in today's Champ Sports Bowl. Both of these teams finished the regular season with a disappointing 8-4 record, but Florida State struggles were more of a result of injuries than the talent they sent out on the field.
Notre Dame had an impressive 31-13 win over Michigan State, but also lost to Michigan, USC, and Stanford. The losses against the Trojans and Cardinal were both by 14-points. Their win over the Spartans is a bit misleading, as they only had 265 yards of total offense.
I believe the difference in this game will be the Florida State defense, which comes in ranked 4th in the country, allowing just 15.2 ppg. The Seminoles are very strong against both the run and the pass. They allowed just 81.8 ypg (2nd) on the ground and only 192.8 ypg through the air.
Notre Dame has made some solid progress under head coach Chip Kelly, but this is a very inconsistent team that has struggled to put up points against the top defenses they have faced. The Fighting Irish managed just 17-points in a 17-31 loss at home to USC and only 14-points in a 14-28 loss at Stanford.
Florida State 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Notre Dame +4 over FLORIDA STATE
Florida State owns a dominant defense but the Seminoles' offense has struggled for much of the year and ended the season with a putrid 95-yard output at Florida. The Seminoles haven't managed much of a running game and EJ Manuel has been sacked far too often for a quarterback with his mobility. Florida State's offense is one of the most frequently penalized units in the nation while three-and-outs are more often than nots. The Notre Dame defense is a top-20 unit that should be able to do its part in this defensive struggle. The offense has faded down the stretch but if they wake up and perform like we’ve seen at times, they will get the job done here. Quarterback Tommy Rees struggled in November. He also has a propensity for turnovers but the Irish have enough playmakers to find the end zone a couple of times. That may be enough in what will be a low-scoring affair. Florida State does boast one of the nation's best overall special teams but in a tight game that neither team figures to break open, we'll take points with 187-game winner Brian Kelly over second-year boss Jimbo Fisher and the ‘Noles. Play: Notre Dame +4 (No bets).
BAYLOR –9½ over Washington
Art Briles is 0-4 as a bowl coach and Baylor is still basking in the glow of season-closing wins over heavyweights Oklahoma and Texas, along with the school's first-ever Heisman Trophy. Neither a flat start from the Bears nor an inspired effort from Washington would be a surprise and that makes this one difficult to pick a side on. Baylor has the firepower to make up ground quickly, especially on the Huskies' much-maligned defense. The Bears can also control the clock with a lead behind the power running of 1,300-yard rusher Terrance Ganaway. Washington has the better special teams and will land plenty of its own punches with record-setting quarterback Keith Price and workhorse Chris Polk but with a home crowd in their corner, the Bears will get Briles his first postseason victory in one of the bowl season's highest-scoring games. Play: Baylor –9½ (No bets).
Nelly
Denver + over Portland
The Nuggets are 2-0 with 116 points scored per game. This is a dangerous team in the shortened season and this is a team that is not being valued like the elite team that they will be this season. Denver has one of the deepest rosters in the league and given the pace they play coming off a shortened training camp they will be a very tough match-up early in the year. Portland is 2-0 but they beat Philadelphia and Sacramento, two teams expected to be fairly average this season. The Blazers always hold a strong home court edge but Denver has owned the recent history of this series, covering in five of the last six meetings. The Nuggets are actually 29-11-1 ATS in the last 41 meetings between these teams and Denver will be a formidable underdog in this set-up. The Nuggets are playing the second game in as many nights but they were at home last night and won with relative ease. The Nuggets have been incredibly efficient with over 51 percent shooting so far this season and Portland won't be able to keep up in an up tempo game.
NHL Predictions
Flames / Islanders Under 5.5
Calgary comes into this game winners of four straight, including a 2-1 shootout victory in Columbus on Tuesday night. The Flames are now 18-15-4 on the year. On the year Calgary is averaging just 2.5 goals per game, and that goes down to 2.40 goals per game on the road. The Islanders look to get back on track after dropping three straight games, which includes being shutout at New York (Rangers) on Monday. New York is just 11-17-6 this year and 6-9-3 on home ice. The Islanders are scoring just 2.2 goals per game this season. Take note that the Islanders are averaging just 1.60 goals per game over their last 5 games, and have scored no more than 3 goals in a game in their last 9. The UNDER is 4-2 in their last 6 overall. Calgary is averaging just 2.20 goals per game over their last 5, and are allowing just 1.80 against per game over that span. Note that the Flames have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 10 games, and have scored more than 3 goals per game just once in those 10 games. If Kiprusoff is in net, he has won three straight games allowing just 4 goals against in total. On the season he has a 2.41 GAA and .917 SV%. Nabokov is just 2-8 on the season but has a reasonable 2.76 GAA and .910 SV%. Tonight we have the lowest scoring team in the NHL versus a team that isn’t much better in that department and has been playing great defensively lately. Goals should be hard to come by tonight and I was surprised to see the total sitting at 5.5 – I’ll play the UNDER.
Matt Rivers
Free play for Thursday comes in the NBA, as I back the Spurs who are looking for the 3-0 start as they visit Houston for a date with the 0-1 Rockets.
San Antonio has looked strong in opening wins and covers against both Memphis and the Clippers, and they have won four of the last five series meetings against the Rockets, covering in three of those five.
Houston will need to figure out an identity under new coach Kevin McHale, and after losing to Orlando by nine-points in their first game, I would say their is some "tweaking" to be done with this squad.
Prefer the proven commodity in this game at this price, and that would be the visiting Spurs.
Go ahead and lay the small road wood, as veteran-laden San Antonio ups their mark to 3-0 both straight up and against the spread.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look a the home favorite Los Angeles Lakers to cover against the New York Knicks.
The one common thread for the Knicks in their first two games is a lack of team defense. In the opener, they hung on to beat the Boston Celtics after blowing their first-half lead. Against Golden State, the Knicks had a third-quarter lead but was tied heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors took control of the game at the start of the fourth quarter.
For the Lakers, under new coach Mike Brown, the defense stepped up and limited the Utah Jazz to 32.2 percent shooting and only one 3-point basket.
The Lakers still have Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. With the lack of defense for the Knicks, the Lakers will be able to score, while the Knicks will find it harder to get their offense going against the now defensive-minded Lakers.
Take the Lakers
3♦ LAKERS
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Salukis plus the points over the Purple Aces, as these two teams open up their conference play tonight. I'm well aware of Evansville's progress this season, but let's not get carried away. Three of their wins came in non-lined games, and I wasn't too impressed with their win over Miami-Ohio on the 20th. They played their best game of the year and still only managed a 2-point win. They covered easily, but for as well as they played they should've won by more.
The same problem that plagued Evansville in that game will reemerge tonight, as they once again are at a defesive disadvantage. Salukis are solid on the defensive end, holding opponents to 65 ppg on 42% shooting. For comparison sake, Evansville is allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting - a huge disparity. Digging deeper, over their last 5 games, the Salukis are allowing opponents to shoot just 41%, while the Purple Aces are at a much more generous at 49%.
Finally, the Aces believe they are much more dangerous team when Colt Ryan doesn't have to carry the offense - and I completely agree. The problem is we're not going to see the kind of balance we saw against Miami-Ohio tonight. The Aces had 5 players score in double figures, the first time that's happened since the Butler game a month and half ago. More likely than not, Ryan will go back to being the centerpiece, and the Aces will go back to looking like an average MVC team with a mediocre defense. Take Southern Illinois plus the points over Evansville Thursday.
3♦ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Thursday night is going to be the NBA's San Antonio Spurs in Houston against their Southwest Division-rival Rockets. I don't mind laying the -2 points in this one, as the Spurs appear to be picking up where they left off last regular season, when they had the best record in the NBA.
As everyone has been marveling in the recent trade for Chris Paul, with the L.A. Clippers, I think it's safe to say the Spurs made a mockery of that with their veteran squad with last night's 25-point win. Prior to that, the Spurs opened the campaign with a 95-82 win over Memphis, exacting a measure of revenge for their first-round exit in last season's Playoffs.
Last night the Spurs had six players score in double figures, as they tickled the twine from beyond the arc for 10 of 19 three-pointers. But forget about the 115 points they scored, the defense was tremendous, limiting thre Clippers to just 36 points in the second half. Los Angeles was held to 19, 17 and 19 points in the first, third and fourth quarters, respectively.
I think they're going to be just fine for this one, against a Rockets team that is in after a 104-95 loss to Orlando on Monday, ruining the debut of coach Kevin McHale.
I know the underdog is 7-3 the last 10 meetings between these two teams, but the this line is a virtual pick, and I think the Spurs are going to win this game. Lay the slim road chalk, as San Antonio rolls to the easy win.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is to look for the Washington Huskies and the Baylor Bears to amp up the scoring and go over the total tonight in the Alamo Bowl.
Let's not kid ourselves, this is a rather large total to clear, but I have no doubts the Huskies and the Bears will not disappoint.
Washington comes into this game having allowed 30-points or more seven times this year, and 40-points or better four times this season.
Not to be outdone, Baylor was right there with the Huskies, as the Bears allowed 30-points or more in a game nine times, and 40-points or more in a game four times.
Baylor went 10-1-1 over the total this season, and are on a 17-5-1 over clip their last 23 games overall since the '10 season!
With the game being contested indoors, no chance of the weather becoming a factor.
Robert Griffin III and Keith Price light the sky up, as Washington and Baylor combine for a very high-scoring Alamo Bowl.
4♦ OVER
Chris Jordan
I know Utah is having a down year, but still, to boast a 29-point win - one that marked the largest victory for the Wildcats over the Utes in school history - it's still a boost for this team and will have them playing with a certain aggressiveness we can expect for much of the season.
The Wildcats ae 8-3 on the season, and that includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home. A win tonight would mark the 900th in school history, as they continue in their milestone 50th season of basketball at the Division I level.
A lot of milestones taking place, and in coming into conference play after posting its best preseason record in 12 years, and its best home start to a season since the 2002-03 campaign, I can't imagine a team like Idaho State slowing this freight train anytime soon.
Lay the points tonight with Weber State.
3♦ WEBER STATE
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma +6 over CINCINNATI: The Bearcats have won their last 4 in a row after the brawl vs Xavier, but none of those teams are even close to mid-major status. Tonight they step up big time in competition as Oklahoma has won its last five games to move to 9-1 on the season, with their only loss to date coming against a solid Saint Louis squad back in late November. There are three active double-digit scorers on the Oklahoma roster, and Steven Pledger leads the team with 19.8 ppg. Andrew Fitzgerald provides 11.5 ppg, while Romero Osby brings 10.0 ppg and 8.8 rpg to the mix. The Sooners are generating 78.7 ppg while holding opponents to 65.1 ppg on 41 percent field goal efficiency. The Bearcats are still missing three players due to suspensions stemming from a brawl with bitter rival Xavier earlier this month. The most notable absentee is forward Yancy Gates, who is eligible to return on January 4 against Notre Dame. They may not have missed Gates vs their last 4 opponents, but his 13.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg, numbers will be difficult to replace vs the Sooners tonight. Cincinnati really struggles at times even with those players as they did lose by 23 to Xavier, plus they also beat Georgia by 6, Miami -Oh by 9 and lost home games to Presbyterian and Marshall, all before the brawl. They may have looked good since that night, but theb Sonners will give them a dose of reality here. KEY TRENDS--- CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS vs.teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12+ ppg over the last 3 seasons, while OKLAHOMA is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons.
Austin Peay/ Eastern Kentucky Over 132.5: The Govenors seem to be getting it together on offense as they have put up 77.3 ppg on 50.2% shooting in their last 4 games. The Governors' recent offensive turnaround can be attributed to the return of center John Fraley. The senior center made an immediate impact in his first game back as he scored 12 points and grabbed five rebounds in the win over Tennessee. Fraley has provided a much needed inside presence and leads the team in rebounding with 7.3 rpg. TyShwan Edmondson has been great recently as he is averaging 22.3 ppg off the bench in his last three games. This is a team that does have some weapons and I expect that they will be strong offensive team (baring injury) the rest of the season. Eastern Kentucky has played good defense this year, but they haven't played a tough schedule (235th, KenPom) and when they did play a good offensive team (Arkansas) they allowed 71 points, plus they did allowed 76 points to Lehigh (28th in nation in scoring) earlier in the year. So up against the right offense this team can be scored upon. The EKU offense has not been that good this year (64.7 ppg), but fear not as Austin Peay doesn't play a whole lot of defense as they have allowed 75.4 ppg (312th) on 47.5% shooting (322nd), plus they allow 38.1% from long range (310th). This is the perfect game for EKU to get that offense going. Plus with the line being at near a PK you can expect a close one through out, which could lead to late FT's or OT. Look for at least 140 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- E KENTUCKY is 24-8 OVER in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games since 1997, while AUSTIN PEAY is 12-3 OVER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee Tech -10.5 over SIU EDWARDSVILLE: Tennessee Tech had a nice start to their year as they are 8-5 and that included a road win over Evansville and they did cover on the road vs a good Duquesne team as well. Tennessee Tech is a sloid 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games and they have gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs the Ohio Valley. Lets also note that last year these two teams squared off twice with Tech winning by 23 and 13 in the two games. Tech get a big edge on offense as they have averaged 69.1 ppg (44.6% shooting) vs division 1 teams, while SIUED has put up just 57.7 ppg (38.2% shooting) in their division 1 games, plus they have a big edge at the FT line (70% to 60.9%). Tech also get the defensive edge as they have allowed 71.3 ppg on 44.1% shooting, while SIUED has allowed 75.3 ppg on 46.9% shooting. SIU Edwardsville has not only lost to every Division I opponent it has faced, it has lost by double-digit margins in five of the seven contests. Tennessee Tech has a bitter taste in its mouth after losing in the OVC championship game and should be out to make a statement that it is going to contend for the conference crown. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against any home dog of 10-19.5 if they average 63 ppg or less and have allowed 80+ in their last game vs a team that allows 67-74 ppg on the year. This play is 24-5 since 1997.
Vanderbilt +8.5 over MARQUETTE: This is a Google News play. Going to look to the dog in this one. I have been on the right side of this Marquette team plenty of times and i feel that I really have them figured out. Vanderbillt has been playing much better of late and even though they are 3-3 in their last 6 games it still has been promising for them. Ok the home loss to Indiana State was not promising, but they are off 2 blowout wins and they did beat a very good Davidson team by 24 points on their home floor, plus they took highly ranked Louisville and Xavier to OT in BB games. This is a team that is just about there and ready to fully turn that corner. Marquette has been a team to be reckoned with this year and they have really crushed a lot of the weaker teams on their schedule and they did win in Wisconsin, but they also won by just 2 over Washington and they lost outright as 7.5 faves at LSU, so they can struggle vs some bigger names. The Vandy defense has struggled some, but I feel their balance on offense will be enough to keep them in this one. I look for this game to go right down to the wire.
2 UNIT PLAY
Iona -8.5 over HOFSTRA: I keep waiting for this Iona squad to to come back to earth but this team keeps piling up the wins, as they are a10-2 on the year and have had notable wins vs St Joes, Purdue, Maryland, @Denver and @ Richmond this year. This team has some problems on defense, but that is more due to their up and down style of play. Their offense, however more than makes up for the defense as they have averaged 85.9 ppg (4th) on 50.9% shooting (5th), plus they are 52nd in 3 point shooting (38.2%) and 15th in the nation for the FT line (75.6%). this team can score anywhere on the court. Hofstra is average on defense allowing 65.8 ppg (161st) on 43.5% shooting (212th), but at 202nd in both offensive ppg (67.2) and FG% (42.7) I don't see them with enough firepower to keep this one close. Iona by DD.
1 UNIT PLAY
VCU -1.5 over AKRON: The Zips are a deep and talented team and they have excelled at home this year, but their last 4 at home have come vs lower level division 1 teams with a combined record of 13-38. VCU is not in that class at all, as they come in as one of the better mid-majors. The Rams are 9-3 on the year and they have won 6 in a row, including wins over S. Florida, Richmond and a road win at G. Washington. All wins were by at least 15 points. VCU just has too much for a Zips team that may be a bit overconfident after 4 easy wins in a row vs nobodies.
Andrew Lange
UCLA at Stanford
Play: Stanford -6
UCLA just spend the better part of December trying to get back in the good graces of the betting markets. Apparently they've done enough to be competitively lined on the road against a quality opponent. But while the Bruins may have built some confidence, it doesn't necessarily mean they are a quality basketball team. The last five opponents were all nowhere near Stanford in terms of ability and they all took place in Los Angeles. UC Irvine, UC Davis, Eastern Washington – those are teams UCLA should be able to beat with their bench alone. Penn and Richmond are halfway decent and UCLA got all they could handle in both contests. Stanford outpaced the market place in November with a 6-0 ATS mark but stumbled last time out against Butler (as a 12.5-point favorite). That loss and UCLA's recent results provide what appears to me to be a decent discount. Lay the points in this PAC-12 opener.