Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 30,2010

Marc Lawrence

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
Prediction: New York Knicks

The Knicks travel to Disney World from South Beach off an eight-point loss to the Heat on Tuesday night when they take on the Magic at Amway Arena in Orlando tonight. New York enters tonight's contest sporting a super-sharp 12-1 ATS mark as road dogs this season. In addition, they are 10-5 ATS on this court when playing off loss. It ain't broke and we're not about to fix it. Take the points with the Knicks. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Tony Stoffo

Army vs. SMU
Play: SMU -7

First off let's remember that the Mustangs have already faced a triple option attack this season when they faced Navy. SMU will learn greatly from this, and with the added time to prepare their defense will be ready to defend the Army option scheme. While defensively for the Black Knights I really don't feel they have enough in their secondary to handle the Mustangs spread attack. I look for the SMU WRs Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley to dominate the Army secondary in a big way here leading to an easy Mustangs win and spread cover here today in front of their home crowd. Black Knights are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jim Feist

Army vs. SMU
Take: Over 51½

Army is averaging 27.5 points and 256 yards rushing, 10th in the country, under Coach Rich Ellerson, one of the nation's true triple option experts. It's tough to defend this attack and Army is 8-2 over the total. SMU is not a strong defensive team, their strength is passing and we're looking at good weather for this one, 70 degrees with clear skies. Play Army/SMU Over the total.

CKO

10 ARMY over *Smu
Late Score Forecast:
ARMY 24 - *Smu 23
Armed Forces Bowl at Dallas, TX

10 *TENNESSEE over North Carolina
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 34 - North Carolina 26
Music City Bowl at Nashville, TN

NINE-RATED GAME: KANSAS STATE (Pick ‘em) over Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30)—Wildcats more versatile on offense; own important bowl coaching
experience in HC Bill Snyder

Pointwise

KANSAS STATE (7-5) vs SYRACUSE (7-5)
PROPHECY: SYRACUSE 24 - Kansas State 20 RATING: 6

SMU (7-6) vs ARMY (6-6)
PROPHECY: Smu 31 - ARMY 27 RATING: 6

NORTH CAROLINA (7-5) vs TENNESSEE (6-6)
PROPHECY: TENNESSEE 27 - North Carolina 25 RATING: 6

NEBRASKA (10-3) vs WASHINGTON (6-6)
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 38 - Washington 13 RATING: 1

Steve Merril

Army vs. SMU
Play: Under 51½

Army runs the ball on nearly 84% of their offensive plays which should keep the clock moving and shorten this game. SMU has a strong rush defense that allows just 141 yards per game and only 3.7 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 165 yards and 4.4 ypr), so the Mustangs match up well against Army’s one-dimensional attack. Overall this season, SMU has allowed just 5.1 yards per play on defense (versus opponents that average 5.8 yppl) and my power ratings predict just 47 total points in this game today. SMU allowed just 150 rushing yards per game and only 3.8 yards per carry versus their 7 bowl opponents this year and permitted just 5.2 yards per play. Army struggled offensively against their 4 bowl opponents with just 18.0 points per game and only 4.4 yards per play, including just 4.0 yards per rush.

Rob Vinciletti

Loyola Marymount vs. Cal Irvine
Play: Cal Irvine -3

On Thursday the Free NCAAB play is on UC. Irvine. They have won and covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. When they play losing teams they have won 6 of 8 and have also covered 5 of 7 off 3+ losses. Loyola Marymount is just 2-8 straight up and against the spread as a road dog of 3 or less and ware a terrible 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ats when playing with 7 or more days rest. Look for UC. Irvine to cover the small number at home and come away with another win and cover in the series tonight.

Goldsheet

SMU 25 - Army 22

The time-worn "boxer vs. slugger" analogy certainly
could apply to this matchup, which, to SMU’s benefit, is being played at its own
Gerald J. Ford Stadium rather than this bowl’s normal home-base, TCU’s Amon
Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, now undergoing a major renovation. Indeed,
West Point’s land-locked option stands in sharp contrast to SMU’s high tech
"Red Gun" attack preferred by its architect, HC June Jones, who has revived the
Mustang program and taken it to bowl games two years in a row. But
suggesting SMU is one-dimensional would be missing the mark, as Jones was
able to strike a better balance between run and pass this season, thanks to the
emergence of RB Zach Line, whose 1391 YR ranks behind only Eric Dickerson
for single-season production in the Mustangs’ long gridiron history.
That edge in balance, however, could be negated if SMU continues to lose
the turnover battle that haunted it this season, as its -9 TO margin (ranking 108th)
stands in stark contrast to the opportunistic Black Knights and their +13, good
enough for a 7th ranking nation-wide. That stat speaks to a broader narrative
involving these two...mainly Army’s style of play and reluctance to beat itself.
Pace and tempo will be crucial, but again, this is an area in which Rich
Ellerson’s West Point option might be able keep the Black Knights within
earshot. By moving the chains and clock with the nation’s 10th-best rushing
game, Army was able to effectively "shorten" its games this season by
dominating time of possession (its 33:43 ranked 3rd nationally). Although the
Ponies have faced Navy the past two seasons, SMU hardly slowed the Mid
option in the process, allowing 293 ypg rushing in a pair of defeats against the
Annapolis bunch. Meanwhile, eastern sources believe the current Black Knight
"D" is the best since Army’s last bowl team in 1996, and Ellerson’s stop unit is
also familiar with the Red Gun, having faced Hawaii’s version in September,
experience that might come in handy against productive Mustang QB Kyle
Padron (3526 YP & 29 TDP in 2010).
Admittedly, West Point is in trouble if it falls behind early, considering the
aerial limitation of its option pilot, Trent Steelman. But we are more reluctant to
trust SMU, and its well-documented shortcomings as a favorite (4-15 last 19 in
role), to extend the margin.

Kansas State 23 - Syracuse 20

This inaugural Pinstripe Bowl flies in the
face of the very concept of bowl games, which began early in the 20th century.
The original idea was for two high-quality football teams to meet after the regular
season at a warm-weather site to provide an attraction for that locale to promote
tourism. Hence, the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans,
Orange Bowl in Miami, etc. When that concept proved successful, the idea
started being "stretched," leading to a strange array of bowls past, including bad
ideas such as the Great Lakes Bowl in Cleveland, the Aviation Bowl in Dayton,
and, for two years, the infamous Gotham Bowl in New York City. In 1961, Baylor
beat Utah State 24-9 at the dilapidated Polo Grounds, with "15,000" reportedly
attending. The second and last Gotham Bowl was held in 1962 in Yankee
Stadium with Nebraska edging Miami (the Hurricanes from Coral Gables should
have known better) 36-34 in windy, 14-degree temperatures, amid a N.Y. City
newspaper strike, and for which 6,166 tickets were allegedly sold.
Now, because there is a new, modern Yankee Stadium, promoters in New
York City are trying again, even though the Garden City Bowl at Giants Stadium
in New Jersey between 1978-81 recalled some of the nightmares of the Gotham
Bowl disaster.
Syracuse (7-5) and Kansas State (7-5), both seeking to revive formerly-proud
programs, deserve some credit for taking on the ghosts of the Gotham Bowl,
although the Orange should have remembered why they play their games in the
Carrier Dome! Syracuse’s biggest fan base is in the NYC area, while the
Wildcats of the "Little Apple" of Manhattan, KS, are eager to show they are ready
for the bright lights of the "Big Apple."
Syracuse alum and second-year coach Doug Marone’s paper-thin Orange
team defends well (18 ppg, 3.6 ypc vs. all foes), but is limited on offense (9 ppg
its last 3 games TY). Big RB Delone Carter (220 pounds) alternated with 5-8
scatback Antwon Bailey to mush for 1539 yards. But QB Ryan Nassib (56%, 16
TDs, 8 ints.) lacks premier targets and fattened up those numbers vs. the likes
of Akron, Maine, and Colgate.
K-State’s Bill Snyder has the more versatile attack, with 228-pound RB Daniel
Thomas (1495 YR) a force that must be contained. Sr. QB Carson Coffman
completed 64%, while emerging 6-5, 230 soph QB Collin Klein (5.7 ypc) added
a powerful running/option element later in the season. With RB Thomas being
a converted QB (3 of 6 passing TY), the wily Snyder (this is his 12th bowl) has
adapted his offense to surprise with passes authored by several players.
Defense is a different matter for the Wildcats (117th vs the run!; 106th overall).
But the Big XII presented a much tougher challenge TY than did the Big East.
And K-State’s rapidly-developing secondary (true frosh S Ty Zimmerman might
be the team’s best defender) should allow KSU to stack the box. Thus, a
measured vote in this one for the men from the "Little Apple" of the Great Plains,
their cagey coach, and the Wildcats’ more-diverse ways to strike. And a prayer
for good (or not downright lousy) December weather

*Nebraska 40 - Washington 20

Not to be confused with the aftermath of Ali-
Frazier I back on March 8, 1971, there wasn’t much clamor for a rematch between
Nebraska and Washington after the Cornhuskers pulverized the Huskies 56-21
in Seattle on September 18. And while earlier meetings are not always foolproof
indicators of what might transpire in a bowl-game rematch, a quick revisit of
Nebraska’s rout is in order.
Sticking with the boxing analogies, the first meeting was a quick KO in the
spirit of Joe Bugner’s first-round demolition of Richard Dunn in 1976. Before the
game was four minutes old, the Huskers had raced to a 14-0 lead. U-Dub was
essentially helpless against the option elements of the Nebraska offense, which
rolled for 383 yards on the ground. Three different Huskers (QB Taylor Martinez,
plus RBs Roy Helu & Rex Burkhead) all cracked the 100-yard rushing barrier.
Martinez, making only his third start, was particularly effective, running for 3 scores
(including an 80-yarder) and passing for another while thoroughly outplaying muchhyped
Husky sr. Jake Locker, who endured the worst day of his U-Dub career (only
4 of 20 passing) while seeing his Heisman hopes effectively vanish.
The issue in the rematch is whether U-Dub can do anything to avoid being
roadkill again. We’re not convinced, despite the fact the oft-burned Husky "D"
played a bit better down the stretch when under-fire d.c. Nick Holt got more
aggressive in his scheming. But U-Dub’s 103rd-ranked rush "D" that also
allowed nearly 5 ypc figures to worked over again by Nebraska’s punishing
infantry. The Huskies’ main hope is that it has not been particularly smooth
sailing down the stretch for the Huskers, whose KO power diminished after a
midseason injury to Martinez (who returned, albeit ineffectively, in the Big XII
title game) and varied distractions, including a brief report of HC Bo Pelini’s
interest in the Miami job.
Moreover, U-Dub’s postseason credentials are a bit dubious, requiring three
straight wins to close the campaign against sub-.500 Pac-10 opposition merely
to meet the minimum bowl threshold of six wins. Although Locker (nagged by an
assortment of leg injuries, but now relatively healthy) is likely to perform better
in the rematch, little else suggests the Huskies have significantly closed the gap
since September against a Nebraska bunch that easily routed Pac-10
representative Arizona 33-0 in this game a year ago.

TENNESSEE 32 - North Carolina 27

These regional rivals are meeting for
the first time since 1961 (they played annually from 1945-61), but this is their
initial postseason clash. And it’s ironic that Tennessee A.D. Mike Hamilton
recently cancelled a home-and-home series with North Carolina in 2011 in order
to ease the early portion of UT’s schedule for the transitioning Vols, with
Tennessee paying $750,000 for the buyout.
With a nationally-ranked defense coming back this season, UNC had lofty
goals. But those BCS bowl aspirations vanished due to an NCAA probe
involving agent-related benefits and academic misconduct. As a result, 14 Tar
Heel players were suspended at least one game and seven were forced to sit out
the entire season, including several projected first-round NFL picks on defense
and LY’s top WR, Greg Little (62 grabs ‘09). Yes, HC Butch Davis deserves
kudos just for getting his squad to finish 7-5.
For the most part, it was a banner year for Tar Heels’ sr. QB C.J Yates (67%,
3184 YP, 18 TDs, 9 ints.). But he did revert to his former error-prone ways by
tossing 4 "picks" in a 26-10 defeat at Virginia Tech Nov. 13. Yates’ primary
target is WR Dwight Jones (53 catches), with reliable TE Zack Pianalto (30) lost
with broken leg in mid-October. But even if leading RB Johnny White (720 YR,
5.5 ypc) is able to return from a broken collarbone, Yates won’t easily find his
rhythm vs. the cohering Vol defense (only 14 ppg last 4 games), spearheaded by
LB Nick Reveiz (94 stops), DT Malik Jackson (Southern Cal transfer has 5
sacks), and the ball-hawking DB duo of FS Janzen Jackson (4 ints.) & CB
Prentiss Waggner (5 ints.; 3 returned for TDs!).
Young but ripening Tennessee (seven true frosh start; four named all-SEC
frosh) is the hotter team, having covered 5 straight, winning 4 straight (albeit vs.
no "murderer’s row") under astute first-year HC Derek Dooley (who won his only
bowl appearance at La Tech in ‘08). The blossoming attack (36 ppg in Nov.)
found an identity when juco QB Matt Simms was replaced by fast-learning 6-6
frosh Tyler Bray (4-0 as a starter; 1537 YP, 14 TDs, 7 ints.), who clicked right
away with a trio of NFL prospects—WR Gerald Jones (46 grabs), WR Denarius
Moore (43 & 9 TDs) & TE Luke Stocker (34). With dependable RB Tauren Poole
(994 YR, 11 TDs) providing infantry support, the Vols’ arsenal is likely to make
more vertical plays than Yates & Co., with UT facing the thinning UNC stop unit
(permitted 26 points or more in 4 of its last 5 vs. FBS squads), which took another
hit when "freakish" LB Bruce Carter (2010 finalist for Butkus Award; 7 career
blocked kicks) was lost in November due to an ACL surgery.
Heck, UNC has dropped back-to-back Meineke Bowls in its own backyard
(Charlotte) the L2Ys! Thus, prefer Tennessee (this is its 10th game in its home
state TY!), representing the superior conference (SEC bowl dogs are 12-3 since
2005!) and inspired by a "sea of orange" at sold-out LP Field (NFL Titans’ home
field holds 68,498). Also, recommend "over" in anticipated wide-open game,
featuring lots of game-changers on offense.

Charlie Scott

North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Play: Under 50.5

Both Teams offense's struggle to throw the ball, especially in making quick big plays. Both teams prefer to throw short passes + run the ball and often settle for Field goals. On defense for Both teams vs similar competition the front 7 are a little better than average and often compete & play hard. Not a Big Play, but I'll take a shot with the Under.

LT Profits

Tennessee +1

Nobody would have expected the Tennessee Volunteers to be bowling this season when they were 2-6, yet here they are in a virtual home game at Nashville in the Music City Bowl vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels on the NCAAF betting odds.

Derek Dooley did a masterful job in his first year as Tennessee coach, not allowing his players to quit on themselves but instead rallying to win their last four games to become bowl eligible. The Volunteers are also on a 5-0 run against the NCAAF odds, as they preceded their winning streak with a covering road loss at the South Carolina Gamecocks.

The Vols turned their year around when they inserted freshman Tyler Bray at quarterback in place of Matt Simms. Bray promptly threw 12 touchdown passes while gong 4-0 as a starter, leading Tennessee to an average of 37.5 points per game during their winning streak.

Speaking of great coaching jobs, Butch Davis took a North Carolina team decimated by suspensions including losing both his best offensive player and best defensive player for the entire season, and yet he led the Tar Heels to a winning 7-5 record straight up while going 6-6 in NCAAF betting.

However, the Heels are now very thin at running back, and that could be the deciding factor in this NCAAF matchup. Johnny White had 1008 yards from scrimmage when he was lost for the season to a fractured collarbone. He was replaced by Anthony Elzy, who averaged a fine 4.1 yards per carry and an excellent 13.5 yards per reception out of the backfield. However, Elzy has now been suspended for academic reasons.

That should put a lot of pressure on UNC quarterback T.J. Yates, and the Tennessee defense can adapt to a one-dimensional passing offense under Dooley’s direction. Look for the Volunteers to prevail against the NCAAF betting odds.

Scott Spreitzer

Iowa State @ Virginia
PICK: Virginia -1.5

Iowa State is 11-2 but has played a relatively weak schedule with the best win being against Creighton while losing to California and Northern Iowa. The Cyclones are down to nine players after losing five to academic ineligibility and then guard DeMarcus Phillips decided to transfer. As a result, first-year coach Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg plans to play more zone defense than usual to avoid foul trouble. Senior guard Diante Garrett is the leading scorer with 17.2 points per game and 6-2 senior guard Jake Anderson manages to pull down 8.5 rebounds. Virginia had some early struggles losing two of three at the Maui Invitational and then went on a five-game winning streak before losing to Seattle at home after squeaking by Norfolk State. The last two outcomes can be explained due to the absence of senior forward Will Sherrill (who missed a total of 5 games) due to a shin injury and leading scorer and rebounder Mike Scott who missed the Norfolk State game and didn't start against Seattle. Both are expected to play tonight. Senior guard Mustapha Farrakhan has picked up the slack scoring 11.3 points per game. This is a small number for the home team vs a depleted Iowa State squad. I'm backing Virginia on Thursday night.

Ray Monohan

Kansas State vs. Syracuse
Play: Under 48

The New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Thursday between K-State (7-5) and Syracuse (7-5) the hometown favorite in this one. The Wildcats are bowl eligible for the first time since 2006 while the Orange are playing in their first bowl since 2004. I like the clock to keep on running in this one for a couple reasons. The K-State run game. An experienced offensive line that can open holes for RB Daniel Thomas. He's the nation’s ninth-leading rusher with a 124.6-yard average per game. I'm pretty sure he's licking his chops watching tape of the Orange's Run-D. QB inconsistency for Syracuse. Will they be able to even move the ball? Ryan Nassib is coming off a rough performance in the Orange’s regular-season finale against Boston College. Syracuse managed just five first downs and 98 yards of total offense, while Nassib was 5-of-10 for 55 yards. Under is 6-2 in KANST last 8 games on grass. Under is 20-7-1 in SYR last 28 games on grass. Under is 5-2-1 in SYR last 8 non-conference games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 6 games.

James Patrick Sports

Washington vs Nebraska

Nebraska and Washington are going to be quite familiar with each other by the time the first month of the 2011 season comes around. The 17th-ranked Cornhuskers and the Huskies will play the second of three matchups in a 12-month span when they meet in the Holiday Bowl at San Diego on Thursday night. U-Dub's postseason credentials are a bit dubious, requiring three straight wins to close the campaign against sub-.500 Pac-10 opposition merely to meet the minimum bowl threshold of six wins. Little suggests the Huskies have significantly closed the gap since September against a Nebraska bunch that easily routed Pac-10 representative Arizona (33-0) in this game a year ago. Big Game James Patrick's College Bowl Game complimentary selection is #236 Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Holiday Bowl. J

Tom Freese

Loyola Chicago at Cleveland State
Prediction: Cleveland State

Loyola Chicago is 9-4 straight up this year. The Ramblers are 7-19-1 ATS their last 27 road games vs. a team with winning home record. Loyola Chicago is 17-37 ATS after scoring more than 80 points in their last game. Cleveland St is 13-1 straight up this year. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS their last 5 Horizon League Games. Cleveland St is 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 games off a straight up win. The Vikings are 5-0 straight up their last five meetings with the Ramblers.