SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
ARMED FORCES BOWL
(at Fort Worth, Texas)
Air Force (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Houston (10-3, 8-4 ATS)
The Cougars make the short road trip north to Amon G. Carter Stadium on the TCU campus to face Air Force for the third time since the beginning of the 2008 season and the second straight year in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Houston got out of the gate with a 3-0 SU start (2-0 ATS) this year to break into the Top 25, including a shocking 45-35 win at Oklahoma State as a 15½-point underdog. The Cougars were then dealt a 58-41 upset loss laying 14½ points at Texas-El Paso, but they entered the Conference USA championship game against East Carolina on a 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) tear. In the title game, played on East Carolina’s home field, Houston came up short 38-32 as a one-point road chalk.
Air Force was 3-3 SU (2-3 ATS) through its first six games, then went on a 4-1 SU and ATS run to get bowl-eligible out of the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons finished the year with a 38-21 loss at Brigham Young as an eight-point underdog, halting a 4-0 ATS run, but they still earned the opportunity for a bowl rematch with Houston.
Last year, Air Force grabbed a 31-28 regular-season victory as a 2½-point pup in a game that was moved from Houston to Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. The Cougars avenged that loss with a 34-28 victory in the Armed Forces Bowl as a four-point chalk, giving the SU winner a 2-0 ATS mark in those two contests.
Houston is in the postseason for the fifth straight year, with last season’s Armed Forces win halting an 0-3 SU and ATS bowl skid. The Cougars haven’t won consecutive postseason contests since 1979-80. Meanwhile, Air Force is in its third straight bowl game under coach Troy Calhoun, looking to halt an 0-2 SU and ATS purge.
Houston has the No. 1 total offense in the nation at 581.1 ypg, the No. 1 passing attack at a stunning 449.8 ypg and the No. 2 scoring offense at 43.9 ppg. QB Case Keenum has completed 71 percent of his passes for a whopping 5,447 passing yards, with 43 TDs against just nine INTs. WR James Cleveland (101 catches, 1,182 yards, 14 TDs) leads a group of five Cougars with at least 500 receiving yards. On the downside, the Cougars defense was a weak link all year, giving up 442.7 ypg (108th) and 28.8 ppg.
Air Force, not surprisingly, relies on its running attack, which is third in the country at 273.6 ypg for an offense that totals 355.9 ypg and 28.2 ppg. RBs Jared Tew (797 yards, 7 TDs) and Asher Clark (736 yards, 5 TDs) combined for 1,533 rushing yards, and five other Falcons runners have at least 200 yards apiece. Air Force is also superb on the other side of the ball, sporting the nation’s No. 1 pass defense (148.7 ypg), No. 10 total defense (284.8 ypg) and No. 9 scoring defense (15.3 ppg).
The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral-site games, but they are on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 in non-conference action and 4-1 on Thursday. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-7 against winning teams and 2-6 from the underdog role.
Houston is on “over” tears of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 9-2 against winning teams and 5-2 in December, and the over for Air Force is on rolls of 4-0 overall and 6-2 in December. However, the under for the Cougars is on stretches of 4-0 following a SU loss and 4-1 in non-conference games, and the under for the Falcons is on streaks of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 with Air Force a pup.
Finally, the bowl game last year fell short of the posted price (66), while the regular-season matchup between these two went over the total (51½).
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
SUN BOWL
(at El Paso, Texas)
(19) Stanford (8-4, 7-5 ATS) vs. Oklahoma (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS)
Stanford, back in a bowl game for the first time since the 2001 season, heads to Sun Bowl Stadium in West Texas to take on the Sooners, who are noticeably absent from a BCS bowl this year.
The Cardinal made a serious run at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth in a season that included a shocking 55-21 road beatdown of Southern Cal as a 10½-point underdog. However, the week after that stunning blowout, they lost at home to archrival California 34-28 as a seven-point favorite, halting their conference title and BCS bowl hopes. Stanford bounced back immediately to drop Notre Dame 45-38 in overtime as a 10-point home chalk in the season finale to finish the regular season on a 4-1 SU run (3-2 ATS).
Oklahoma, which has been in a BCS bowl eight of the past nine years out of the Big 12, had to go almost the entire season without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford and suffered a significant drop-off. The Sooners lost the season opener to Brigham Young 14-13 as a whopping 22½-point favorite, with Bradford injuring his shoulder in the first half. He was out five weeks and played in only two more games before reinjuring the shoulder in the first quarter of a 16-13 loss to Texas and calling it a year.
Oklahoma’s longest win streak of the season was just two games (twice), and it finished the season by alternating SU wins and losses over its last five games (2-3 ATS), though the Sooners capped it with a 27-0 home rout of rival and 12th-ranked Oklahoma State as an eight-point chalk.
These teams haven’t met since 1984 and have squared off just four times overall. Oklahoma is 3-1 SU in those contests, and Stanford is 3-1 ATS.
Stanford last played in the postseason in the Seattle Bowl in 2001, losing 24-16 as a six-point chalk against Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Oklahoma played for the national championship last year, losing to Florida 24-14 as a 4½-point ‘dog in the BCS title game, its third consecutive SU and ATS postseason setback (a school record). The Sooners are in a bowl for a school-record 11th straight year, all under coach Bob Stoops, but they’ve gone just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in the previous 10, including a current 1-5 SU and ATS dive in which all five losses were by at least a touchdown.
The Cardinal are putting up 441.1 ypg this year (13th), including a running game that averages 224.3 ypg (11th). Star RB Toby Gerhart, who finished second in the Heisman voting, led the way by rushing for 1,722 yards and a whopping 26 TDs for a squad that averaged 36.2 ppg (10th). That said, Stanford gave up its share of yards and points, allowing 26.2 ppg and 396.5 ypg.
Stanford likely will be without injured starting QB Andrew Luck, who passed for 2,575 yards with a solid 13-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Former starter Tavita Pritchard would start in Luck’s place.
The Sooners averaged 419.4 ypg (278.5 passing, 140.9 rushing), and with Bradford hurt the offense was mostly in the hands of redshirt freshman QB Landry Jones (2,780 passing yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs). Oklahoma made a much bigger mark defensively, rating seventh in the nation in three categories: total yards allowed (273.5 ypg), rushing yards allowed (88.6) and points allowed (13.7). In fact, the Sooners held nine opponents to 16 points or less.
The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests, but they are on ATS upswings of 4-1 in December and 5-2 following a pointspread loss. Oklahoma is on ATS skids of 1-5 as a bowl chalk, 1-4-1 at neutral sites and 0-4-1 following a SU win, though the Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five December outings and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against the Pac-10.
The over for Stanford is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 with the Cardinal a pup. On the flip side, the under for Oklahoma is on sprees of 11-2 overall, 5-0 outside the Big 12, 8-1 in December, 9-2 with the Sooners favored, 9-2 against winning teams and 7-3 in the postseason.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
TEXAS BOWL
(at Houston)
Navy (9-4, 6-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (8-4, 4-7 ATS)
Missouri aims to finish the season on a four-game winning streak when it travels to the Lone Star State to face Navy at Reliant Stadium.
The Tigers won their first four games of the season (3-1 ATS), then went on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid that killed their Big 12 North title chances. However, they finished strong by winning their last three games (1-2 ATS in lined action), including a 41-39 victory over archrival Kansas as a 3½-point road chalk on Nov. 28 in the regular-season finale. Missouri put up 32 points or more in each of its last five games.
Navy won six of its first eight games (5-3 ATS), then went a more modest 3-2 SU over its last five, failing to cash in three of its last four regular-season lined contests. The Midshipmen finished with a 17-3 victory against archrival Army on Dec. 12, falling just short of covering as an overwhelming 14½-point chalk on neutral turf at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
These teams have met just three times, with Missouri winning all three games, but the last of those clashes came in the 1960 Orange Bowl, won by the Tigers 21-14.
Missouri returns to Texas for the second straight postseason, after beating Northwestern 30-23 in overtime in last year’s Alamo Bowl. The Tigers fell short as a hefty 14-point chalk in that contest, marking the first time in their last four bowl appearances that they failed to cash (3-1 SU and ATS). Navy is going bowling for the seventh straight year and is currently on a 4-1 postseason ATS run (2-3 SU), with the lone pointspread setback coming in last year’s 29-19 loss to Wake Forest as a three-point pup in the Eagle Bank Bowl.
Missouri averaged 30.3 points and 417.2 yards per game this season, leaning heavily on sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert, who piled up 3,302 passing yards for an offense that ranked 13th nationally in passing (285 ypg). Gabbert had 23 TDS and just seven INTs, and wideout Danario Alexander (1,644 yards, 13 TDs, 15.4 ypc) was the chief target. Defensively, Mizzou allowed 24.6 points and 358 total yards per contest, and the Tigers ranked 12th in rushing defense (96.4 ypg).
Navy sported the nation’s fourth-best rushing attack, at a whopping 272.5 ypg for an offense that averaged 27.5 points and 343.8 total yards per outing. QB Ricky Dobbs was the lynchpin, rushing for 1,045 yards and an eye-popping 24 TDs, and passing for another 901 yards and five TDs. The Middies yielded just 19.9 ppg (20th in the nation) and 333.6 total ypg.
Mizzou is on ATS surges of 9-3 outside the Big 12 and 12-3 laying 3½ to 10 points, but it also carries negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall, 1-8 against winning teams, 1-4 at neutral sites and 2-7 in December. The Midshipmen are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 in Thursday contests and 8-3 in December, but they finished the regular season in a 2-4 ATS funk and are 1-3 ATS in their last four games when following a SU win.
The under is on streaks of 4-0 overall for Navy, 5-0 in non-conference play for Missouri and 6-1 for Mizzou against winning teams. However, the over for the Tigers is on rolls of 4-1 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-2 at neutral sites, and the Middies are on “over” upticks of 5-0 in bowl season, 4-0 as a bowl pup and 6-1 as a neutral-field ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
INSIGHT BOWL
(at Tempe, Ariz.)
Iowa State (6-6, 7-4 ATS) vs. Minnesota (6-6, 5-6 ATS)
Two teams muddling along with a .500 record take the field at Sun Devil Stadium when Iowa State faces the Gophers in a Big 12-Big Ten contest.
Iowa State made it to the postseason despite losing three of its last four games (2-2 ATS), including a 34-24 setback at Missouri in the Nov. 21 finale, though it covered as a hefty 15-point underdog. The Cyclones upended Nebraska 9-7 on the road Oct. 24 as a whopping 20½-point ‘dog for their signature win in an otherwise mediocre season, as the Huskers ultimately reached and nearly won the Big 12 title game.
Minnesota won its first two games of the year (1-1 ATS), then couldn’t put together back-to-back wins the rest of the season and finished on a 2-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS in lined action). The Gophers’ last game was also Nov. 21, a 12-0 loss at Iowa in which they narrowly cashed as a 12½-point pup to end the year on a 3-1 ATS upswing.
Iowa State and Minnesota, located just 215 miles apart, used to meet regularly in the early 1900s, but they’ve played just three times since 1989, with the Gophers going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, Minnesota rolled 53-29 as a 9½-point home favorite in September 1997.
The Cyclones are in a bowl game for the first time since 2004, when they beat Miami (Ohio) 17-13 as a one-point chalk in the Independence Bowl, and this will be just the ninth postseason appearance overall for the program. One of those was in the 2000 Insight bowl, as Iowa State topped Pittsburgh 37-29 as a three-point underdog.
The Gophers are in the Insight Bowl for the third time in four years. They lost 44-41 in overtime to Texas Tech in 2006 as an eight-point ‘dog, and got bounced 42-21 last year by Kansas State catching 7½ points. Minnesota is in a bowl game for the ninth time in 11 years.
Iowa State’s offense averaged 359.4 ypg, with an almost equal pass-run balance (182.2 passing ypg, 177.2 rushing ypg), as RB Alexander Robinson netted 1,056 yards and five TDs on the ground. But the Cyclones averaged just 21.1 ppg (102nd). Defensively, Iowa State allowed 22.6 ppg despite yielding a whopping 414.3 ypg (169.3 rushing ypg).
Minnesota gained just 295.8 ypg this year (113th), including a meager 97.6 rushing ypg (112th), and wasn’t far ahead of Iowa State in scoring, at just 21.6 ppg (98th). The Gophers’ defense gave up 24.6 points and 364.2 yards per contest.
Iowa State is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 10-2 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a SU loss, but the Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday starts and 0-4 ATS as a pup of up to three points. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a chalk of three points or less, but the Gophers are on ATS purges of 0-4 as a bowl favorite, 1-6 after a spread-cover and 2-7 in non-conference action.
Iowa State is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 3-0-1 in bowl games, 5-0 against the Big Ten and 5-1 following a spread-cover, and the under is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five Thursday starts and 7-3 in the Gophers’ last 10 as a favorite. However, Minnesota is also on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in the postseason and 10-3 outside the Big Ten.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE
CHICK FIL-A BOWL
(at Atlanta)
Tennessee (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. (12) Virginia Tech (9-3, 7-5 ATS)
Surging Virginia Tech, in a bowl game for the 17th consecutive year, heads to Atlanta to face the Lane Kiffin-coached Volunteers, who are back in the postseason after missing out last year.
Virginia Tech fell to current No. 1-ranked Alabama 34-24 as a six-point pup in the season opener at the Georgia Dome, then rolled up five straight victories before a midseason stumble dropped it out of ACC title contention and the BCS picture. However, after losses at Georgia Tech and to North Carolina, the Hokies put the pedal down in their last four games, winning SU and ATS in blowout fashion, with no game closer than 13 points. In the Nov. 28 finale at rival Virginia, Va-Tech rumbled to a 42-13 pasting as a 14-point chalk.
Tennessee, in its first year under Kiffin, lost three of its first five games and was at 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) before turning things around to get bowl-eligible out of the SEC. The Vols won four of their last five (3-2 ATS), finishing the regular season with a 30-24 overtime victory at Kentucky as a three-point favorite. Tennessee also gave Alabama a tough battle, losing 12-10 on the road as a hefty 14-point underdog on Oct. 24. In that contest, the Vols had a game-winning field-goal attempt blocked as time expired.
These teams have met seven times, dating all the way back to 1896. However, the last clash was in 1994, when Tennessee posted a 45-23 rout as a seven-point chalk in the Gator Bowl.
The Hokies dumped Cincinnati 20-7 in the Orange Bowl last season as a 2½-point pup, but in their current 16-season bowl run – all under coach Frank Beamer – they are just 7-9 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, in their last postseason appearance two years ago, the Vols edged Wisconsin 21-17 as a 2½-point chalk in the Outback Bowl. Tennessee is in the postseason for the 19th time in the last 21 seasons.
Virginia Tech is putting up 31.4 points and 388.2 yards per game, with much of it coming from the nation’s 15th-best running attack (206.4 ypg). Freshman RB Ryan Williams has piled up 1,538 yards (5.7 ypc) and 18 TDs on the ground, including a whopping four TDs in each of his last two games. The Hokies also have a stout defense, ranking 11th in points allowed (15.8 per game), 14th in total defense (300.1 ypg) and sixth against the pass (161.4 ypg).
Kiffin has Tennessee’s offense averaging 395.6 ypg (225.6 passing, 170 rushing), paced by RB Montario Hardesty’s 1,302 rushing yards (4.9 ypc) and 12 TDs. QB Jonathan Crompton (2,565 passing yards) started slow but finished with a solid senior campaign, tossing 26 TDs against just 12 INTs for a unit that averaged 30.6 ppg. Like Va-Tech, Tennessee rates well in total defense (308.8 ypg, 18th) and passing defense (165.9 ypg, 11th), while yielding 21 ppg (27th).
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a bowl chalk and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference affairs. However, along with its current 4-0 ATS run (all as a chalk), the Hokies are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a SU win, 8-3 against winning teams and 16-5 on Thursday. Tennessee is on ATS upswings of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as an underdog, but the Vols are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games outside the SEC and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points.
For Virginia Tech, the under is on a bundle of runs, including 5-1 overall (all as a chalk), 12-0 on Thursday, 5-1 against winning teams, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 13-6 following a SU win. Likewise, the under for Tennessee is on tears of 5-0 in bowl games, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-0 against the ACC, 9-2 with the Vols a ‘dog, 10-4-1 after a SU win and 38-18-3 coming off a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(15) Ohio State (10-2, 6-6 ATS) at (23) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-4 ATS)
Two of the Big Ten’s five ranked squads hook up for a New Year’s Eve battle at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis., as the Badgers host Ohio State in the conference opener for both teams.
The Buckeyes wrapped up the nonconference portion of their schedule with a trio of blowout home wins over inferior competition, pounding Presbyterian (78-48), Delaware State (60-44) and Cleveland State (72-59). However, Ohio State failed to cash as hefty double-digit favorites in all three contests, and Thad Motta’s club enters Big Ten play in an 0-4 ATS funk after cashing in six of its first eight games.
Wisconsin has ripped off four straight home victories (3-1 ATS) since a shocking four-point overtime loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay. Most recently, the Badgers toppled Illinois-Chicago 79-43 on Sunday, easily covering as a 21½-point home favorite. During its winning streak, Wisconsin has won by margins of 9, 48, 10 and 36 points, allowing just 51.5 ppg during this stretch.
These rivals have split their last eight meetings, including two Big Ten Tournament clashes. Last year, Wisconsin beat Ohio State 55-50 at home, coming up short as a six-point chalk, but the Buckeyes got revenge in the conference tourney, winning 61-58 as a three-point pup. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and while the host is 5-1 SU in the last six regular-season clashes, the visitor has gotten the money in each of the last four in the regular season.
Ohio State played just one true road game over the first two months of the season, and it was a 74-66 loss at No. 22 Butler as a five-point underdog on Dec. 12. The Buckeyes are 2-2 SU and ATS against ranked teams, losing to North Carolina 77-73 on Nov. 19 as a two-point underdog in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden, while topping California 76-70 as a 3½-point chalk the following day at the Garden and besting Florida State 77-64 as a seven-point home favorite in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 2.
Wisconsin’s has defeated both of its ranked opponents, crushing then-No. 21 Maryland 78-69 as a two-point underdog in the Maui Invitational, followed a week later by a 73-69 win over No. 6 Duke as a 4½-point home underdog.
While the Buckeyes have failed to cover in four straight games, they’re still on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in conference play and 6-2 on Thursday. Wisconsin is on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 on Thursday, but it failed to cover in four of its final five league games last year and is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS win.
Ohio State is riding “under” streaks of 10-4 on the road, 5-1 in Big Ten contests and 5-0 against winning teams, but the over is 10-1 in its last 11 on Thursday. The Badgers have stayed low in six of seven conference contests, five straight against winning teams, five of six on Thursday, 35 of 51 after a spread-cover and 10 of 13 after a SU victory. Finally, the last five head-to-head battles between these schools have stayed under the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Dallas (22-9, 16-15 ATS) at Houston (19-13 SU and ATS)
The Mavericks and Rockets meet for the fourth time in six weeks – and the final time in the regular season – with Houston hosting this Southwest Division clash at the Toyota Center.
Dallas kicked off a four-game Western Conference road swing with Sunday’s impressive 104-96 upset victory at Denver, cashing as a 5½-point road underdog. The Mavericks have won eight of 10, including a 3-0 SU and ATS roll on the road, but overall they’ve cashed just five times in their last 15 games. Dallas has reached triple digits in five of its last six contests, winning four of those five games.
The Mavs have enjoyed a lot of success as a visitor this season, going 11-4 SU and ATS on foreign courts, with the winner covering the spread in all 15 games. The team’s 11-4 ATS mark on the highway is in stark contrast to its 5-11 ATS home record.
Houston rebounded from Sunday’s 108-83 loss at Cleveland with Tuesday’s 108-100 home victory over New Orleans, barely getting the cash as a six-point favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. Although the Rockets have alternated SU wins in their last five games, they’re 11-5 and 10-6 ATS in their last 16 contests, peeling off five straight home wins and covers during this stretch. The SU winner is 11-2 ATS in Houston’s last 13 games overall and 11-2 ATS in its 13 home affairs.
Dallas thumped the Rockets in the first two meetings this year, cruising 121-103 as a 6½-point home favorite on Nov. 10 and 130-99 as a four-point road underdog 15 days later. However, the Rockets put themselves in position to earn a season-series split with a 116-108 overtime upset win in Dallas as a 5½-point pup on Dec. 18.
The Mavs are still 13-5 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head battles with the Rockets and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Houston. Also, the ‘dog has gotten the cash in eight of the past 10 meetings (with the visitor going 7-3 SU and ATS during this span).
Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games, but otherwise Rick Carlisle’s squad is in pointspread ruts of 2-6 against Western Conference opponents, 0-4 versus divisional foes, 6-21 on Thursday, 0-5 after a non-cover and 0-5 when coming off three or more days of rest. Moreover, the underdog has cashed in five straight Mavs games and is 10-2 ATS in the last 12.
In addition to its 5-0 ATS run at the Toyota Center, Houston is on pointspread surges of 4-0 against the Western Conference, 29-10-3 on Thursday and 6-1 after one day of rest.
Dallas has topped the total in seven of its past 10 on the highway, but otherwise the Mavericks are on “under” runs of 6-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-0 on Thursday. The Rockets are riding “under” streaks of 12-5 overall, 9-4 against Southwest Division rivals, 4-1 on Thursday and 8-2 after a SU victory. Finally, the under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams in Houston, though this year’s first clash at the Toyota Center easily went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
SPORTS INSIGHTS
Air Force vs. Houston
Air Force struggled to protect the football in their last game, fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions in a 38-21 loss to BYU. Turnovers also derailed Houston's bid for the Conference USA title, led by Case Keenum's three picks in a six-point loss to East Carolina.
Houston opened as a 5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. SportsInsights' Betting Systems have jumped all over the underdog, triggering six positive Smart Money Plays on Air Force. In this matchup we'll fade the public, and grab Air Force and the five points they're getting.
Air Force +5
Carlo Campanella
Air Force vs. Houston U
Houston (10-3) owns by a top-rated passing offense lead by QB Case Keenum, who looks to overcome the Falcons' top-ranked passing defense in Fort Worth, Texas. Houston ended an eight-game losing streak in bowl games with a 34-28 victory over Air Force (7-5) last year. Keenum threw for one score and ran for two more as the Cougars avenged a 31-28 home loss to the Falcons in the regular season. After throwing 44 touchdowns as a sophomore, Keenum will enter the final game of his junior season leading an offense averaging 450.0 yards per game. QB Keenum had a total of 614 yards passing in the two games against Air Force last season, but the Falcons have improved to own the nation's top-rated pass defense, yielding only 148.7 passing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Air Force has lost back-to-back Armed Forces Bowls under Calhoun and have lost three straight bowls since beating Fresno State in the Silicon Valley Bowl in 2000. Air Force's offense offers a complete contrast to Houston, featuring the fourth-ranked rushing attack in the country at 273.6 rushing yards per game. That's a poor match-up for the Cougars, who rank 112th in allowing 213.1 yards per game on the ground. If Houston gets the lead, it will be hard for Air Force to make up much ground without using the clock. Air Force was 7-5 during the regular season, but owned a horrible 1-5 record against bowl teams. Air Force enters this off a 21-38 loss to Bowl winning BYU, but will try to rebound knowing they're 3-23 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more to a Conference rival
7* Play On Houston
Charlie Scott
Tennessee U vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Under 49.5
Both teams strength is defense, while their offense's struggle passing the ball. Tennessee has former NFL Defensive Coordinator master Monte Kiffin in charge of their defense, while Va Tech Def Coordinator is Bud Foster one of the best in College Football. With a month off to prepare have to think that both defense's will have schemes to slow down conservative offense's.
Rob Vinciletti
NC State vs. NC Greensboro
Play: NC State -10
I expect The Wolfpack to have their way with UNC Greensboro here tonight. ACC teams usually dispatch of this type of competiton with reletive ease. UNC Greensboro is 1-19 vs ACC teams and is just 4-11 ats in those games that have been lined through the years. They are a poor 2-13 straight up and against the spread vs teams who allow less than 65 points per game and have lost and failed to cover in alll 3 games in which they allowed 60 or less. UNCGB is a terrible non conference team and should be beat pretty good by NC.State.
Freddy Wills
Iowa State vs. Minnesota U
Play: Iowa State +115
Minnesota really looked awful down the stretch to be quite honest, and it is mainly due to the fact they are missing All Big Ten receiver Eric Decker and he won't play tomorrow either. Really makes Weber that much worse! While Iowa State is not exactly lighting up the score bored I give them a good chance at winning here on Saturday. Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Big-12 Conference. While Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 non-conference games, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games as a favorite. This would not surprise me at all if they lost here. Neither team has an offense or defense worth talking about although Iowa State does have a decent running game ranked #36 in the nation while they have faced an opponent ranked #46 in run defense. They also have a win over Nebraska who looked awfully impressive last night. Minnesota has faced four top running teams comparable to Iowa State which is not getting as much credit as it deserves in my opinion. They went 1-3 against those teams that could run the ball in the Top 20. While Iowa State is not in the top 20 they are and can run the ball here tomorrow.
Jim Feist
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Under 195
Two of the top 11 teams in points allowed meet here. Miami is on a 4-1 run under the total, with an impressive .442% shooting by opponents, 5th best in the NBA. San Antonio plays has a losing road record, but in the Alamodome this team plays its best basketball, and that starts with defense. They just held Minnesota to 39% shooting the last game, at home. Look for a defensive battle, play the Heat/Spurs Under the total.
Jr Tips
UTAH vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The Thunder have an impressive overall record ATS going 20-11 and 5-0 ATS in their last five game overall with four of those five on the road. The Jazz own a good home record, at 12-4 but are only 6-9 on the road this season but the Jazz have struggled on the road since the 07-08 season. This young Oklahoma City team should be full of confidence going into tonight's game. Kevin Durant has been the go to man for this team scoring over 30 points in each of his last five games with an average of 34.6 ppg. He should have his way with the Jazz tonight just like he did in their previous meeting leading the Thunder to a 104-94 win in Utah with 28 points, 5 rebounds and 8 assists while Russell Westbrook scored 17 points in their last meeting and held Williams to 10 points on 5-14 shooting. The Jazz are a poor road team and they are playing in the second of a back to back while Oklahoma City is rested and back home after playing a stretch of games on the road. Look for Durant to continue his hot shooting and lead this hot Oklahoma City team to their second win against the Jazz this season.
TAKE Oklahoma -2.5
Tony Weston
I can’t believe such a great game had to end the way the Humanitarian Bowl ended.
Bowling Green showed plenty of resolve and gave a spirited effort that fell short against Idaho. We end up taking a loss, but won’t dwell on it because we’re cashing in today with Tennessee in the Chick Fil-A Bowl.
Coming into this game Virginia Tech has covered in just 4 of its last 14 non-conference games and has failed to cover in 5 straight games when laying between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
The Volunteers, on the other hand, have gone 4-1 ATS their last 5 games when installed as an underdog and have covered in 5 of their last 7 games overall.
Tennessee will flirt with the outright win and will definitely cover against the Hokies.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Karl Garrett
Air Force +4' vs. HOUSTON - at Fort Worth, Tx
G-Man striking early with his free play today, as I like Air Force plus the points to come through against Houston.
These schools are meeting for the third time in less than 17 months, and are playing in the same bowl game that saw them face each other last year!
Both previous meetings were quite close, as Air Force won outright in the regular season meeting, but came up 6 points shy in last year's Armed Forces Bowl.
That makes 2 straight bowl losses for this proud Air Force team, and while they may go down again, they will be right there against a Houston team that had trouble when laying single digits down the stretch.
The Cougars failed their last 3 on the season when laying single-digits, and they will have to face the # 1 pass defense in the nation today.
Having faced Houston twice last year, the veteran Falcons "D" should welcome this meeting against Case Keenum and mates.
Air Force is likely to play keep-away from the Houston offense by running their ground-oriented option attack, and that means time of possession will work in their favor as they look to stay inside of this impost.
Go with the Falcons to keep this one close.
1♦ AIR FORCE
Jeff Benton
Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech, at Atlanta
Heartbreaking free-play loser with Bowling Green on Wednesday, as the Falcons took a 7-point lead with 35 seconds to play and lost. Brutal. For your free play on New Year’s Eve, I’ll play the Tennessee-Virginia Tech Chick-fil-A Bowl UNDER the total.
Two very strong defenses going in this one. The Hokies rank in the Top 15 nationally in scoring defense (15.8 ppg allowed), total defense (300.1 ypg allowed) and passing defense (161.4 ypg allowed). Over their final five games, Va-Tech surrendered a total of 55 points (11 ppg).
Tennessee’s stop unit ranked the Top 20 in total yards (308.8) and passing yards (165.9), and its 21 ppg allowed was extremely respectable, particularly in the SEC and particularly in the first year of a new system coached by Monte Kiffin (the legendary NFL assistant and son of Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin). The Vols allowed 23 points or less seven times, including holding South Carolina to 13, Alabama to 12, Georgia to 19 and Florida to 23.
Both teams are in the midst of a slew of “under” trends, too. Virginia Tech stayed low in five of its last six overall and the under is 5-1 in its last six against winning teams and 12-0 in its last 12 on Thursday, while Tennessee has seen the under hit in five straight bowl games, four straight against the ACC and nine of 11 as an underdog.
Another key point: Neither of these teams have played since Nov. 28, and a layoff of more than a month generally is a big advantage to the defense – especially when the defenses are as good as these two.
Finally, if you go back to 1999, this Chick-fil-A Bowl (always matching the ACC against the SEC, and always on a fast track in the Georgia Dome) has featured the following final scores (working backward from last year): 38-3, 23-20, 31-24, 40-3, 27-10, 27-14, 30-3, 16-10, 28-14 and 17-7 – meaning just one of the last 10 games has had more than 43 total points!
6♦ UNDER
Brett Atkins
I'm 12-9-1 with my last 22 free selections after settling for a push on Wednesday night when UConn went to Cincinnati and lost by two points. Tonight I'm on the pro hardwood for a comp winner as I play the Clippers laying chalk at home against the Sixers.
Philadelphia comes into Los Angeles to take on the Clippers after winning a shootout in Sacramento on Wednesday. How motivated are they going to be to take the court again, in Los Angeles on New Year’s Eve? Not likely. Plus they are a terrible road team anyway. Lay the small chalk with the Clippers in this one.
Los Angeles went to Philadelphia on Dec. 19 and scored a 112-107 victory in overtime, cashing in as a 3 ½-point underdog. The Clippers got an emotional home win over the Celtics last time they were on this court, but then went to Portland last night and lost a tough one.
There is some talent on this Los Angeles team, it’s just getting them on the same page defensively that’s the trick. No worries on points with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman in the starting lineup. All three can score the ball, but defense isn’t the strong suit for any of them.
The Sixers give up 101.5 points a game and on the road it jumps to 102.6. The Clippers actually play a little defense on the home court, allowing just 96.6 per game.
Los Angeles has been beating up the bad teams, going 5-1-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Go ahead and lay the small chalk and play the Clippers at home tonight.
3♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Jay McNeil
How easy was that one? I gave you another winner with my free play Wednesday, taking Nebraska in its 33-0 victory over Arizona. That gives me seven wins in my last eight comp plays, and I'm going to end 2009 with another victory!
There's no way Oklahoma should be favored by 10 points over Stanford. The Sooners were very inconsistent this year, not winning more than two games in a row all season.
Oklahoma's running game is not as strong as it was last year, and running back DeMarco Murray has been banged up this season, although he is going to play today. And freshman QB Landry Jones has been solid, but the Sooners' offense isn't nearly as explosive as it was with Sam Bradford taking snaps.
The Sooners rank seventh in the nation against the run, and they are going to have their hands full today with Cardinal star Toby Gerhart, who leads the nation in rushing and finished second in the Heisman Trophy race. Gerhart and his offensive line are going to be determined to show that they can run the ball against Oklahoma today.
And Stanford freshman QB Andrew Luck might return to the lineup after having pins removed from his right index finger. His presence would make the Cardinal more dangerous offensively, and give his teammates a little extra spark.
Stanford has beaten USC and Oregon this year, so Oklahoma shouldn't intimidate it at all. And coach Jim Harbaugh seems to get the best out of his team in big games. Look for the Cardinal to keep this one close and cover the spread.
4♦ STANFORD
Charley Sutton
Bad call with North Carolina yesterday as the Tar Heels can’t do enough to get that cover against Albany of all teams.
That’s fine because I’m cashing in today as I’m taking Navy over Missouri in the Texas Bowl.
Coming into this game Missouri has covered in just 2 of its last 8 games overall and is just 2-7 ATS its last 9 games in December. Also, the Tigers have covered in just 1 of their last 5 games played at neutral sites and are 1-8 ATS their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
The Midshipmen, on the other hand, have covered in 4 of their last 5 bowl games and have covered in 8 of their last 11 games in December.
They’ll cash in again in this one and give Missouri a game.
3 ♦ NAVY