Joel Tyson
Wednesday night winner on the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points.
Let's move on to a bowl winner for Thursday, and I am taking the points with Stanford. You can yap all you want about Andrew Luck being hurt, but the last time I checked, Jim Harbaugh has this team believing they can win this game, and I feel pretty sure Toby Gerhart wants to show the Heisman voters they made a mistake.
Oklahoma's injury situation has been a problem all season long, and the fact they went just 7-5 a season after playing for the national championship should tell you all you need to know about their motivation, or lack there of today.
The Sooners have lost their last 3 bowl games, and 5 of their last 6 both straight up, and against the spread, and I sure don't like them to cover in this bowl game.
Take the points with the team from Palo Alto.
4♦ STANFORD
Chuck O'Brien
Take Minnesota and lay the couple of points over Iowa State in the Insight Bowl in Phoenix.
The record shows these are two 6-6 teams and both definitely are lucky to be here. But don’t be fooled by the won-loss numbers, as Minnesota is the superior football team. The Gophers own signature wins over Air Force and Michigan State at home; they won convincingly at Northwestern (35-24); they played Wisconsin (31-28 home loss) tough; and even though there were shutout by Iowa (12-0 on the road) and Penn State (20-0 at home), their defense definitely did its part. Finally, when you look at Minnesota’s ledger, you’ll find only one inexcusable loss, and that was a 35-32 setback to Illinois at home (and Illinois’ talent was way better than its record this year).
Iowa State, meanwhile, had just one marquee victory all year –yes it was a BIG one, a 9-7 win at Nebraska as a 20½-point ‘dog. But that game was beyond fluky, as the Cornhuskers had a 362-239 yardage edge, but committed EIGHT turnovers, including five in the red zone – yep, the Cyclones forced eight miscues and only managed three field goals out of it. ISU’s other five victories were yawners: North Dakota State, Kent State, Army, Baylor and Colorado (four of the five were at home). Meantime, four of the Cyclones’ losses were ugly (35-3 to Iowa at home; 35-10 at Texas A&M, 34-8 to Oklahoma State at home; 34-24 at Missouri).
Give me the better team that faced the more difficult schedule in what amounts to a pick-em contest.
4♦ MINNESOTA GOPHERS
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
Third meeting between these 2 over the L/2Y (2nd str matchup in this bowl). LY, UH ended an 8 gm bowl losing streak with a 34-28 (-3’) win over AF. AF won the reg ssn matchup 31-28 (-2’) in a gm that was relocated to Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. AF HC Calhoun is the 2nd cch in AF history to take his tm to a bowl in his 1st 3 yrs (0-2 SU/ATS), and 1st to lead his tm to 3 consec 7+ win ssns in his 1st 3Y. HC Sumlin is the 1st cch in UH history to lead his tm to bowl gms his 1st 2 ssns. UH is looking for B2B bowl wins for the 1st time S/‘79-’80. UH plyd 6 bowl tms going 4-2 SU (3-2-1 ATS) outscoring them 38-33 and outgaining them 536-455. AF plyd 6 bowl elig tms going 1-5 SU (2-3-1 ATS) being outscored 16-15 and outgained 311-300. AF has 16 upperclass starters (15 Sr) but it should be noted that they are one of the youngest tms as Fr and soph’s make up 60% of the roster. They also lead the NCAA w/20 Fr playing TY. UH has 6 Sr’s among their 13 upperclass starters. AF was 2-4 SU (3-2-1 ATS) away from home TY, while UH was 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) on the road, but lost 2 straight SU/ATS. UH fans have a 4 hour drive up I-45, but TX has a strong military presence, which should help AF keep the crowd evenly divided.
AF’s #84 off is led by soph QB Jefferson. While still a run 1st tm (743 rush, 139 pass) Jefferson did string together three 100 yd pass gms before the BYU gm (88 yd). He did miss 3 gms as bkup Dietz led the tm to a 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS rec’d in his starts, although he missed the L/3 of the reg ssn (inj) but he may be available here. Jefferson did take a shot in the back vs BYU, but Calhoun says it “does not appear” he has any broken ribs in early reports. Four of AF’s top 6 rushers are underclassmen and their rush attack ranks #4 in the NCAA. AF is 15-3 SU (12-5 ATS, 1 NL) when a player rushes for over 100 yds and outrushed all but one opp TY (Army). The rec unit is led by Folger (17 of his 21 rec’s have gone for either FD’s or TD’s). The OL avg 6’4” 281 and all 5 starters are Sr’s. With two 1st Tm All-MWC players, they all’d 10 sks (7.2%) while paving the way for 274 ypg rush (4.4) and starting 98% of the gms together. AF has scored 6 non-off TD’s TY, incl 5 by the D (a schl rec’d). The #39 ranked D has all’d 20+ pts just twice TY (Utah, BYU) and has tallied 24 sks on the ssn. AF is +41 in TO margin under Calhoun incl +18 TY. They held 8 of 12 tm’s under their ssn rush avg and did not allow a 200 yd rush gm. They rank #48 in our pass eff D, all’g 149 pass ypg (58%) with a 9-14 ratio. The ST’s rank #6 led by Rembert in the ret gm. He has broken AA Ernie Jennings (1868-’70) record for ret yds with 1,322 and is the MWC’s active leader. The unit has blk’d 4 K’s TY (3 FG, 1 xp) and has had at least 1 blk every yr S/’90. The PR D all’s 8.6 ypr and KR 19.4 ypr.
UH’s off has been virtually unstoppable. They rank #2 in the NCAA (our #1) avg 44 ppg and 581 ypg and have scored at least 29 pts and gained at least 390 yds in every gm. They are also #1 in pass avg at 450 ypg. CUSA MVP Keenum (419 ypg) avg 97 more ypg than the #2 passer (Troy’s Brown). UH has an effective RB combo as Beall is more of the thumper and true Fr Sims (CUSA Frosh POY) likes to get the ball on the edge. Keenum has a lot of weapons (4 players with 60+ catches), led by 1st Tm CUSA Cleveland. Cleveland not only has the size to go over the middle, but also the spd to stretch the field. The diminutive duo of Carrier (5’7”) and Edwards (5’8”) excel at getting yds after the catch. The OL avg 6’3” 298 and has all’d just 18 sks (2.5%) and is led by Sr C Barnett, who has started 39 str gms. The Coug D has struggled at times TY, all’g 29 ppg and 443 ypg. The DL is slightly undersized avg 6’3” 256 and has 4 true Fr in the 2 deep. The lack of size and experience on the DL has contributed to poor run D, as they are all’g 213 rush ypg (5.0), despite 14.5 of the tm’s 23 sks. McGraw leads a LB corps that lost 2 plyr’s for the ssn w/inj, which forced true Fr Steward into the starting lineup. UH is #72 in our pass D rankings all’g 230 ypg (62%) with a 15-11 ratio. CB Brinkley led CUSA with 16 pd’s (4 int) and CB Robinson is #2 in the conf with 5 int. UH enters #32 on ST’s. KR Carrier has sprinter’s spd and is a threat to go the distance every time as he had 3 KR TD’s, all over 92 yds. K Matt Hogan was 10-10 on FG’s TY, but missed 3 xp’s in the CUSA Title gm vs EC.
This is only the 7th time that tms have returned to face-off in the same bowl. This is also an unusual situation being the 3rd meeting in the L/16 months. It will be publicized that UH has the #1 pass off vs AF’s #1 pass def (NCAA) but you know we take the schedule into account as they’re not nearly that high. While historically it has not been prudent to go against the military in a bowl, we have gone against AF each of the L/2Y and have won H rated selections. Tms that have plyd 14 days or later than their opp have been almost a 90% play and we will back the Keenum-led off in the 2nd of B2B bowl wins over AF.
FORECAST: HOUSTON by 10 RATING: 3★ HOUSTON
This is the 1st bowl appearance for SU S/‘01’s Seattle Bowl (lost 24-14, -6 vs GT) while OU will play in the postssn for an 11th str yr (all under Stoops 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS). SU has improved each ssn under Harbaugh who will be coaching his 1st bowl. This will be the prog’s 3rd time each playing at the Sun Bowl (both 2-0 SU/ATS) as OU beat TT (-6’) in ‘93 and SU beat MSU (+7) in ‘96. SU is very excited to be here and OU might be disappointed after playing for the title LY. OU was 1-5 SU (1-4-1 ATS) on the road TY while SU was 2-3 SU/ATS. This will be the 5th overall meeting (OU is 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS) but 1st S/’84. OU does have a shorter trip (433 miles less) and playing in the B12 they are used to the TX elements. SU played 7 bowl caliber tms and went 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) with the avg ypg near even while OU went 3-5 SU (2-5-1 ATS) but outgained foes by 78 ypg. OU comes into El Paso with the more veteran squad starting 6 Sr’s with 14 upperclassmen (64%) to SU’s 5 with just 9 (41%).
SU won 4 of their first 5 gms TY (4-1 ATS) with their only loss (at WF) coming with a controversial ending. Off has been the key for the program (#6) as they avg 36 ppg and 441 ypg. QB Luck has earned 1st Tm All-Frosh helping to control the tempo of this smashmouth unit. Luck, however will miss here (brk finger). LY’s starting QB Pritchard will start (just 3 pass att TY) as he is a career 54% passer (2747 yds, 15-22 ratio) and is best known for the upset of USC ( ‘07) in his 1st career start. 1st Tm AA RB Gerhart (leads the NCAA in TD) has already broken the single-ssn rush record at SU. With his success, it’s important to also mention the splendid play of FB Marecic who even started a gm (currently 2nd string) at MLB due to inj. The WR unit features Whalen (leads tm in rec and yds) and Owusu (deep threat). SU also uses its fair share of TE’s with Fleener and Dray leading the way. The OL avg 6’5” 297 (1 Sr) paving the way for 5.4 ypc while all’g just 6 sks despite starting a pair of rFr. The SU def ranks #64, all’g 26 ppg and 397 ypg incl all’g more than 447 yds in half of their gms in ‘09. The DL avg 6’3” 280 (1 Sr) and has accounted for 74% of SU’s 21 sks. DE Keiser leads with 9 sks. The LB unit suffered a tough blow a few wks back with the loss of Snyder. His absence has allowed true Fr Skov to see more PT. Safeties Howell and McNally are #1 and #2 in tkls TY and have had to step up due to lackluster play out of the CB’s (#96 pass def, 252 ypg, 63%, 20-7 ratio). SU has our #2 ranked ST unit thanks in part to KR Owusu who has 3 TD’s on the ssn.
OU’s record TY is very misleading. HC Stoops will not have to worry about the pressure of winning a BCS bowl as OU has not lost this many gms since his 1st yr (‘99). Inj’s to the ‘08 Heisman winner, the nation’s best TE and a ton on an already inexperienced OL took its toll during the year. OU was very inconsistent as they never dropped B2B gms but never won anymore than 2 str. QB Bradford inj’d his shldr in the opener vs BYU and missed the next 3. He did throw for 389 yds (55%) vs BU but was reinj’d in the RRR and decided to have surg to get ready for the NFL. Jones took over leading all Fr in pass yds. He had eight 240+ pass gms and tossed 2+ TD’s in 5 gms but also had 5 int vs NU. After having two 1,000+ yd RB’s LY, OU’s ‘09 numbers fell mainly due to the OL problems. WR Broyles (2nd Tm B12) was the star of the off and he actually broke his shldr blade vs UM but only missed 1 wk showing his toughness. The OL lost 57% of its starts TY and they had NINE different starting lineups. The unit has just 8 healthy scholarship players on the roster. The OL avg 6’5” 300 (2 Sr’s) paving the way for 141 ypg (3.8) all’g just 15 sks (3.2%). 1st Tm B12 OT Williams has the most exp but he missed the Bedlam start. The def was the rock of the tm as they held 10 opp’s to 21 or less (3 shutouts) and vs rival OSU held them to just 6 FD and 109 yds! The DL avg 6’4” 277 (0 Sr) all’g 89 ypg (2.7) while accounting for 28 (76%) of the tms 37 sks. McCoy (1st Tm AA) and Beal (2nd Tm) earned all B12 honors. LB Lewis was 1st Tm B12 leading the tm in tkls and with Clayton and Reynolds forms one of the nation’s best LB corps. OU is ranked #2 in our pass eff D all’g 185 ypg (54%) with a 11-16 ratio. 1st Tm B12 CB Franks along with S Carter and CB Jackson (both 2nd Tm) form the solid secondary. The ST unit (#5) is led by rFr P Way (PS#29) earning 2nd Tm B12 and their 1.5 avg on PR is #2 in the NCAA.
SU and coach Harbaugh are thrilled that the Sun Bowl chose them over Oregon St and now get to match up vs the storied program of the Oklahoma Sooners. OU meanwhile is another instance of a team that may just be going through the motions coming off their worst season (7-5) S/’99. The Sooners best performances were off losses this year and they enter this game coming off an impressive Bedlam shutout.
FORECAST: STANFORD (+) Oklahoma by 1 RATING: 2* STANFORD
With the high number of military bases in TX, Navy will be well represented in the Texas Bowl even though Mizzou is about 750 miles closer. Navy recruits well in Texas (14 plyrs on 2 dp from TX) and has already played 2 gms here TY (wins over Rice and SMU). The Tigers are also clearly disappointed as this is the last bowl in the B12 pecking order and they were passed up by three B12 tms with lesser records. This will be the 3rd meeting between these schools (MU is 2-0) and 1st since the ‘60 Orange Bowl (21-14). Both programs will be making their 1st Texas Bowl appearance as Navy will be bowling for a 7th straight ssn (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS L/5Y) which is a schl rec’d and Mizzou the 5th (3-1 SU/ATS L/4Y). HC Niumatalolo is 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) in bowls while Pinkel is 4-2 SU/ATS overall in the postssn and 3-2 SU/ATS with Mizzou. The Midshipmen were 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) as a dog TY while the Tigers are 7-1 SU but just 4-4 ATS as a fav (4-0 SU, 3-1 as an AF). This bowl will be played on grass and both programs play their HG’s on turf as Navy is 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) and Mizzou is 6-4 SU/ATS L/3Y. Navy has faced 6 bowl tms TY with a 3-3 SU record (2-3-1 ATS) and MU has faced 7 with a 4-3 SU record (2-5 ATS). MU outgained bowl foes by an avg of 372-341 but was outscored 23.7-25.4 while Navy was outscored 25.7-23.7 and outgained 362-304. Navy has 10 senior starters and 19 (86%, #1 among bowl squads) upperclassmen to 5 and 12 (55%) for Mizzou.
Mizzou entered ‘09 off B2B B12 North Titles and NYD bowl gms, lost 2 key off plyrs (both in the NFL) and 7 All-B12 defenders but still managed a decent ssn surprising some. The Tigers started 4-0 (ranked #24) heading into conf play. They led NU 12-0 after 3Q’s but lost which started a midssn slump. Three of MU’s 4 losses were vs ranked tms which obviously was its toughest stretch of the ssn. QB Gabbert also sustained an ankle inj vs NU and was very limited the following wks handcuffing his mobility. He is now 100% and MU won 4 of their L/5, scoring 32+ and topping 400+ yds in each (500+ the L/2). He has six 300+ yd gms and has 2+ TD passes in 8. After a 1,000 yd ssn LY RB Washington’s numbers are down but he still had 2 100+ yd efforts (99 yds vs CU). The offensive superstar was AA WR Alexander who has EIGHT 100+ yd performances including an amazing 200+ in 3 of the L/4 gms. The OL avg 6’5” 306 (1 Sr starter) paving the way for 132 rush ypg (3.8) while all’g 16 sks (3.7%). They are led by 2nd Tm B12 OG Gregory. Despite only 4 returning starters TY the def has been better than the 2 yrs prior allowing 358 ypg (54 ypg better than LY, 21 ypg in ‘07). The DL avg 6’3” 275 (2 Sr) all’g just 96 rush ypg (2.9) while accounting for 17 (57%) of the tm’s 30 sks. DE Aldon Smith earned B12 Def FOY (T-#10 in NCAA in sks) and DT Baston pulled in 2nd Tm B12. The leader of the def is AA LB Weatherspoon. Mizzou is ranked #79 in our pass eff def allowing 262 ypg (62%) with a 19-8 ratio. Over the L/4 gms the secondary has been suspect (356 ypg, 70%, 9-4). The ST unit is ranked #45 and is led by 1st Tm B12 K Ressel whose 96% FG accuracy is tops in the nation and the Tigers’ 40.3 net punting is #5.
It’s been another successful year at Navy as they won the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy for a school record 7th str time with 15 wins in a row over their military rivals. The offense is led by QB Dobbs who broke Tebow’s NCAA single ssn record for rush TD’s by a QB (24). Although not asked to throw often, Dobbs has a strong arm and decent receivers capable of big plays. Dobbs missed most of 2 gms (just a few plays in Temple loss) with a knee inj that will require surg after the ssn, but ret’d to rush for 100+ yds in each of the L/4. Murray emerged at the FB spot winning the starting job at midssn. SB Curry had a breakout gm vs Ohio St with 2 TD catches incl an 85 yd’r. Curry missed 3 gms with inj but ret’d for the L/3. The OL is on the small side as usual avg 6’2” 264 with 2 senior starters and TY the sks all’d are up to 21 (+11) and the ypg rush is down to 273 (-19 ypg). Overall Navy is #82 on offense and #60 on defense. The DL avg 6’3” 262 with 1 senior starter and the D has only all’d 127 rush ypg (4.0) TY. The LB’s are very active with Pospisil talented enough to start on some BCS tms. Navy ranks #73 in our pass D rankings allowing 207 ypg (60%) with a 14-11 ratio, but allowed 452 to ND and 366 to Hawaii, the 2 strongest passing off they have faced TY. Navy is #84 in our spec tms rankings with P Delahooke having a fine year but the other areas have mostly struggled.
Contrast in styles and many tms have complained about Navy’s chop blocking TY and its certainly been on MU’s mind already. MU did have extra time to prep and had the luxury of watching the Army/Navy game but as always a military school will be prepared. We will favor a higher scoring game as Missouri’s potent pass offense will score their share while any Missouri D breakdown will mean long runs for the Midshipmen.
FORECAST: Missouri/Navy OVER 52’ RATING: 2*
These 2 Midwestern programs are just 215 miles apart with Minny leading the series 22-2-1 including winning and covering in the only 3 gms S/’24 (L/’97). Both lost handily to rival Iowa TY with ISU tossing 5 int in a 35-3 (+6’) home loss. UM was shutout (12-0, +10’) in the finale even though the Gophers had the yd (201-171) and FD (13-12) edges as Minny was SOD at the Iowa 2 and 22 in the 4Q. UM returns to the Insight for the 3rd time in 4Y after being passed over by the Alamo, who took a Mich St team that susp’d 12 players and lost to UM 42-34. UM is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS vs B12 schools in this bowl allowing 43 ppg including LY’s 42-21 loss to Kansas (+8) in Brewster’s 1st bowl. ISU is 2-7 SU in bowls but in their only prior Insight Bowl beat Pitt outright 37-29 (+2) in ‘00. Minny was 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS on the road TY scoring just 1 garbage time TD in its L/3 while ISU was 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS. UM is 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS on grass L/3Y (1-1 SU/ATS TY) and ISU plays its home gms on grass. The Gophers went 2-4 as a fav TY and ISU was 3-3 as a dog but 0-3 as a single digit dog. Minny went 3-5 SU/ATS vs bowl tms TY being outscored by 7 ppg and outgained by 90 ypg. ISU was 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS vs bowl squads being outscored by 15 ppg and outgained by 141 ypg. Both have 10 Sr starters (18 upperclassmen for Minny to 17 for ISU).
UM scrapped the spread they used as their base offense the 1st 2Y under Brewster in LY’s bowl and went to a pro style which emphasized the downhill run game. Brewster dismissed spread guru OC Dunbar and hired Broncos WR coach Fisch. Two yr starting QB Weber struggled with the heavy playbook and the move away from the shotgun. Weber’s numbers have actually decreased each year and he finished ‘09 last in the league in pass eff (#100 NCAA). VHT true frosh Gray got a few snaps in each game but could see more action here. The run game was actually statistically worse going from 104 ypg (3.1) to a meager 98 ypg (2.9) despite rFr Whaley’s emergence down the stretch. The offense was further hindered when superstar WR Decker missed the L/4 with career-ending foot surgery. He still had 15 more rec than the #2 rec as none of the young WR’s stepped up. The offense failed to score a TD in the L/2 with 1 game vs an FCS team. Despite having 4 diff DC’s in 4 yrs the experienced Gophers (9 Sr starters) actually allowed their fewest yds S/’03 when they finished 10-3. The DL is anchored by DT’s Brown and Small who are a combined 605 lbs. The LB unit was one of the league’s best and they were the team’s top 3 tacklers. The secondary was inconsistent with top cover CB Sherels missing 3 gms due to injury. UM is #51 in pass eff D. The Gophers have our #39 ST finishing #2 in the Big Ten in net punting (38.4).
Most had the Cyclones pegged for last in the B12 North. Surprisingly, ISU had chances for an even better ssn as they were a missed xp and an overthrown TD pass from a possible 7-1 start. They did benefit from +8 TO vs NU and were outgained in their bowl clinching win vs CU. Still, Rhoads became the 1st ISU rookie HC to win 6 S/’15 (Charles Mayser)! ISU won 2 AG’s TY (most S/ ‘05), snapping an 18 gm road losing streak and their 3 B12 wins equalled the total conf wins the prior 3Y. ISU has been outgained in each of their L/5 (-163 ypg) as they have only avg 14 ppg and 290 ypg. QB Arnaud started the year off strong with a 9-5 ratio but suffered a hand inj after the BU gm and missed the Neb gm. After his return he only threw for 184 ypg (59%) with a 3-7 ratio. Arnaud looks to be 100% for the bowl. The offense went through RB Robinson who reached the 100+ mark in 4 of the 1st 6 but he hurt his groin midssn and wasn’t 100% the rest of the year. He did pile up 138 yds (4.6) vs CU in ISU’s home finale and the time off will help as ISU is at its most potent when he is healthy. The OL avg 6’3” 327 (1 Sr) paving the way for 177 ypg (4.5), all’g 14 sks (4.0%). They are led by C Stephens who makes the line calls and proved his toughness by playing the following week after appendix surgery caused him to miss the A&M game. The D has allowed 414 ypg but DC Burnham has done well shaving 39 ypg off of the ‘08 avg. The DL avg 6’2” 261 (2 Sr) all’g 169 ypg (4.4) while accounting for 9 (64%) of the tm’s scant 14 sks (worst in B12). LB Jesse Smith led the tm with 128 tkls earning 1st Tm B12. ISU is ranked #92 in our pass eff def allowing 245 ypg (62%) with a 22-14 ratio. The ST unit is ranked #36 as K Mahoney has a very strong leg and the PR def is #4 in the NCAA.
Congratulations to HC Rhoads getting ISU to 6 wins which is 1 more than the L/2Y combined. UM changed their offensive philosophy and their victory total decreased but can finish on an up-note. While Minny isn’t an elite tm, they have the better D, are hungrier and more familiar with this setting.
FORECAST: MINNESOTA by 9 RATING: 3* MINNESOTA
These 2 have met 7 times dating back to 1896 with Tenn having a 5-2 SU (1-0 ATS) record but they have not met S/’94 when UT defeated VT in the Gator Bowl (45-23). VT is making its17th straight postssn trip and Beamer is 7-9 SU/ATS in bowls. With a win here VT will have won 10 or more in 9 of the L/10Y. This is UT’s 5th trip to the Chick-fil-A Bowl (former Peach) where the Vols are 1-3 SU all-time losing the L/2 SU/ATS by 13 to Clem in ‘03 and by 27 to MD in ‘02. In those trips the Vols and their fans were disappointed to fall to the non-NYD Peach Bowl after a string of 13 str NYD bowls and ticket sales slagged, but TY Vol fans are excited to return to a bowl after missing one LY and are glad to make the short trip to ATL (215 miles). This will be VT’s 4th appearance here (1-2 SU/ATS) with their last appearance coming in ‘06 when they lost to UGA (31-24). The Hokies have faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 4-3 SU and 2-4-1 ATS and outscoring those opp’s by an avg of 25-17 but only outgaining them 316-309. Tenn has faced 9 bowl caliber tms and is 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS outscoring them by a 24-22 avg and outgaining them 345-325. The Hokies have 10 Sr starters among their 15 upperclassmen and Tenn has 9 Sr starters among their 18 upperclassmen. This is VT’s 2nd trip to the Georgia Dome TY and 3rd to the state of GA (0-2 SU/ATS). In the 1st gm of the ssn, VT lost to Bama (34-24) and that was the only gm they played TY on art turf. Tenn also faced Bama TY and lost but did cover (12-10, +14). UT has only played 1 gm on turf TY and lost SU/ATS. UT sold their allotment of 17,000 tickets to this game.
UT returns to the bowls under brash 1st yr HC Lane Kiffin and it hasn’t been a dull yr for the Vols. QB Crompton leads our #25 off and has been one of the MIP QB’s in the NCAA TY after losing his job LY (52%, 4-5 ratio). He started off ‘09 shaky (0-5 ratio vs 1st 2 BCS tms UCLA and FL), but in the L/7 gms he avg’d 255 pass ypg w/a 17-4 ratio. RB Hardesty finally managed to stay healthy the entire yr for the 1st time in his career finishing #3 in the SEC in rush ypg (108.8). The WR corps suffered numerous inj’s and losses (2 plyrs dismissed midssn) but Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore (both banged up at start of ‘09) emerged. TE Stocker is a pro prospect that finished #3 in rec. The OL lost AA cand C Josh McNeil in August (ply’d 1) and was forced to go to 2 walk-ons as starters, brothers Cody (C) and Cory (LG) Sullins. The OL only avg 6’3” 293 but has 4 Sr starters and all’d 5 less sks than LY and the tm improved its rushing by 47 ypg. The D is #22 in our rankings under def genius Monte Kiffin who has performed miracles with this squad that has been devastated by inj’s especially at LB (lost 2 starting MLB’s to ssn-ending inj). The DL only avg 6’3” 264 with 2 Sr starters, pro prospect DT Williams and undersized DT Brown who has struggled through the yr with chronic knee inj’s. LB McCoy is #3 in the SEC in tkl per gm and played through inj at the EOY. AA SS Berry gave up the spotlight a bit TY to play closer to the line of scrimmage and still needs 8 yds to break the NCAA career int ret ydg record. He gets a chance to break it in his hometown in what could be his last college gm as he is likely to leave early for the NFL. Since the reg ssn ended, UT lost WR coach Wilson to LSU and ST’s coach Gran to FSU, so they may be short-handed preparing for the bowl.
Tech won their L/4 gms of the yr to finish 9-3. QB Taylor is avg 175 ypg pass. RB Williams, who took over for LY’s Frosh POY Darren Evans (pressn inj), won ACC Rookie of the Yr (4th highest rush yds in ACC hist), avg 5.7 ypc. The Hokies’ OL avg 6’4” 302 paving the way for 4.7 ypc but has all’d 30 sks (12.9%). The OL is anchored by two 2nd Tm ACC lineman, LG Sergio Render and LT Ed Wang, and HM ACC RT Blake DeChristopher.
The Hokies have our #23 off and #13 def. VT’s DL avg 6’4” 269 and is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE Worilds. VT ranks #52 in the NCAA rush D. Since 1999, VT is 98-8 (9-0 TY) when outrushing its opp and 9-23 (0-3 TY) when outrushed. The leader of the D is 1st Tm ACC LB Grimm. VT has our #8 pass D all’g 161 ypg w/an 8-10 ratio. The secondary is led by 2nd Tm ACC S Chancellor and HM ACC Carmichael. VT has our #13 ST’s. K Waldron has been solid and earned 1st Tm ACC along with P Bowden. VT is avg 24.7 on KR’s and 10.5 on PR’s while all’g 19.7 on KR’s and 7.8 on PR’s.
Should be another great NY’s Eve Bowl and these two as compared on the checklist are as closely matched as any two teams. In fact the only true edges are the experience of HC Beamer and the special teams of the Hokies. With that said, we will side for a lower scoring game with both defenses having played tough sked’s and both offenses trying to play mistake-free ball.
FORECAST: Tennessee/Virginia Tech UNDER 50 RATING:1*
POINTWISE
HOUSTON (10-3) vs AIR FORCE (7-5)
Rematch! For the Falcons of Air Force, & the Cougars of Houston, this marks
their 3rd meeting in the past 15 months, & that includes matching up in this
exact same bowl a year ago. Their first 2 games were near mirror images, as
the Falcs (+2) prevailed during the '08 regular season, 31-28, while the Coogs
(-3) took their bowl meeting, 34-28. In that 'Force win, the Falcons ran for 380
yds, but failed to complete a pass for just the 5th time in school history. And
they barely held on, after jumping to a 31-7 lead. Coogs' Keenum: 4 TD passes.
In their bowl game, Houston led 17-7 in the 1st, but AirForce tied it 17-17 at the
half. And it was 31-28 in the 4th. Keenum: just 1 TD pass, but 2 TDs running.
And note the Falcons' Tew with a school bowl-record 149 RYs. For the Falcs,
this is just their 3rd bowl trip in the last 7 years, all 3 coming in the last 3 years,
all 3 under 3rd-year coach Troy Calhoun, & all 3 in this particular bowl. Thus
far, a pair of 6-pt losses (1½ & 3 pt ATS losses). Again, they are a an overland
power (4th in the nation), but an overhead also-ran, altho Jefferson did top 100
PYs in 3 straight games. But how about bringing the nation's top-ranked passing
"D" into this contest? Just 149 PYpg allowed, altho it was 128 PYpg, before
BYU threw for 377 yds in their regular season finale (38-21 loss). Enter the
prolific Keenum: 5,449 PYs, 71%, 43 TDs, & only 9 picks. He has topped 500
PYs 4 times this season, leading Houston to the #1 "O" in the land, & the #2
scoring "O". Defensively, another matter, as the Coogs rank 111th in stopping
the run. The Falcs have averaged only 16 ppg in their 5 dog roles this season,
but will obviously top that mark here. But bucking Keenum & Co isn't healthy.
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 28 RATING: 3
OKLAHOMA (7-5) vs STANFORD (8-4)
You wouldn't know it from the 9 combined losses between these 2, but this is
one of this year's premier bowl matchups. For the Sooners of Oklahoma, this
marks their 11th consecutive bowl season, a school record, with all coming in
Bob Stoops' 11 years at Norman. Overall, this is Oklahoma's 43rd bowl game.
The Sooners, of course, are used to more important holiday fare, as they've
played in the BCS Championship game in 4 of the previous 9 years, including
LY's 24-14 loss to Florida. They entered that contest with an offense which
averaged an unfathomable 54 ppg, & included a record-setting 5 consecutive
games with at least 60 pts, with all but 1 coming vs bowl squads. But the loss
of '08 Heisman winner QB Bradford (shoulder) has obviously hampered the
Okies' scoring capability, altho they did manage 65 pts vs defenseless TexA&M,
& QB Jones a decent 58%, 2,780 yds, 23/13. Note that 4 of their 5 losses
have come by just 1, 1, 3, & 7 pts. But note further that they were outscored
51-16 in their last 2 RGs. Defense, especially vs the run (#7) has been their
forte. For the Cardinal of Stanford, this is their 1st bowl trip since '01, & they've
been a true force, behind the power running of Toby Gerhart, who leads the
nation with 1,736 RYs (26 TDs). But can he do it vs the Okies? And can he do
it possibly without the backfield companionship of QB Luck, who had surgery
on his throwing hand after Stanford's final game? He ranked 26th in the nation
in passing efficiency (58%, 2,780 PYs, 23/13). Cards' 55-21 win at USC is an
indication of just how improved this squad is, under the tutelage of Harbaugh,
who inherited a 1-11 team in just 3 years ago. Many questions, so a dog call.
PROPHECY: Oklahoma 27 - STANFORD 24 RATING: 5
MISSOURI (8-4) vs NAVY (9-4)
A pair of school records have been set with this meeting, as the Midshipmen
of Navy appear in a bowl for the 7th-consecutive season, while, for the Tigers
of Missouri, this marks their 5th-straight such campaign. Neither of the 2 have
previously experienced such prolonged success. The Middies, of course, are
among the elite teams in the land, in overland production. Over the past eight
years, they've finished at #3, #1, #3, #1, #1, #1, #1, & #3 in the land in rushing.
A simply amazing feat of continuing excellence, no matter the personnel. This
season, they nearly shocked the collegiate football world with an opening day
near masterpiece, at OhioSt. As 21½ pt dogs, the Middies scored with 2:23
left, to pull to within 29-27 of the mighty Bucks, only to have the 2-pt try picked
off & returned the distance, in a 31-27 loss. Ouch! Just 21-yd deficit, when
the dust settled. Led by QB Dobbs, who set an NCAA single-season record
for rushing TDs by a QB (24), Navy also prevailed over NotreDame at South
Bend. Only Pitt took the Mids by more than a TD. But it must be noted that
Dobbs is playing with a cracked kneecap. The Tigers, previous to '02, had
gone to only 2 bowls in a span of 19 seasons ('84 thru '02), before their current
success. Led by QB Gabbert (3,302 PYs, 23/7) & WR Alexander, who leads
the nation in receiving ypg (137), Mizzou scored at least 32 pts in each of its
last 5 games. And the Tigers allow only 96 RYpg (12th best), thus Navy will
have to get overhead help from Dobbs, who is capable. However, note that in
their final 11 games, the Tigers were minus 44½ pts ATS, so hardly a spread
giant. Not exactly the bowl Mizzou wanted, while Mids are thrilled to be here.
PROPHECY: Missouri 27 - NAVY 26 RATING: 5
VIRGINIA TECH (9-3) vs TENNESSEE (7-5)
A pair of annual powers meet for the first time since the '94 Gator Bowl, altho
they would seem natural rivals, as their campuses are just 230 miles apart.
For the Hokies of Virginia Tech, this game marks their 17th consecutive bowl
season, & 4th in the Chick-fil-A. A win here, & Beamer's squad will complete
its 6th straight 10-win season. Again, it is led by a solid defense, which has
held 15 of its last 19 opponents under 18 pts, while finishing with the nation's
10th best scoring "D", as well as 13th in total "D". Offensively, they are led by
frosh RB Williams, who has been near unstoppable at times, with nine 100-RY
games this year: 1,538 yds (5.7 ypr), & 19 TDs. QB has also been a plus, with
Taylor a solid 56%, 2,103 PYs, & 13/4. And he has run for 344 yds, to boot.
Thus, a balanced offense, & a highly rated defense. Note that 2 of Tech's 3
losses came by just 5 & 3 pts. And check 31-7 & 48-14 routs over bowl-bound
Miami & BostColl. But note also a 498-155 yd deficit in their season opening
loss to mighty Alabama. The Volunteers of Tennessee went it without Fulmer,
with new head coach Kiffin managing a solid 7-5 log vs a brutal sked, with 2 of
those losses coming vs Florida, 23-13 (20-pt cover), & 'Bama, 12-10 (12½ pt
cover). A pair of 4-pt setbacks, with just one stinker all year (OleMiss). In that
Alabama game, by the way, the Vols had a 341-256 yd edge. Thus a 428-yd
edge for UT over VT in that Tide comparison. Vol QB Crompton placed 2nd in
the SEC with 26 TD passes, & RB Hardesty has 1,306 yds & 12 TDs. Thus,
this game presents many similarities. No bowl edges, as both are 4-6 ATS in
their last 10 holiday contests. Just cannot dismiss that Alabama comparison.
PROPHECY: Virginia Tech 22 - TENNESSEE 20 RATING: 6
MINNESOTA (6-6) vs IOWA STATE (6-6)
From a 10-game losing streak to wind up the '08 season, to a bowl slot in '09.
That's what the Cyclones of Iowa State have accomplished this season, under
new head coach Paul Rhoads. For the Cycs, this is their 10th bowl season, &
first since '05, when their Houston Bowl appearance marked their 5th such
reward in 6 years. But just 4-8, 3-9, & 2-10 records from '06 thru '08. So quite
a turnaround. This year, they've done it with a consistent, though unnoticed,
overland game, which topped 200 yds in 6 of their first 7 outings. In games 3
thru 8, they not only went 4-2 SU, including an upset of 19½ pt fav Nebraska,
but also 5-1 ATS, by a combined 71½ pts. Defensive collapses in 3 of their
final 4 games, nearly torpedoed their bowl hopes, but a squeaking home win
over 3-9 Colorado secured the "bowl eligible" label. So here they are. They
are led by RB Robinson (1,058 yds), & QB Arnaud (57.4%, 1,799 PYs, 13/11),
with LB Smith an all-Big12 first-teamer. For the Gophers of Minnesota, this
marks their 9th bowl berth in the last 11 seasons, & 3rd trip to the Insight Bowl
in the last 4 years. They a far cry from their glory years, in which they could
run on anyone, behind such toters as Barber, Maroney, etc. Their spread "O"
ranks just 113th in the nation, with their 98 RYpg ranking 112th. QB Weber
has been their main weapon all season, but he is barely above 50% (51.6), &
his 14 INTs more than offset his 12 TD tosses. The loss of premier WR Decker
has put quite a crimp on this offense. The Gophers have dropped their last 3
RGs by a combined 70-7 score, altho it must be noted that those 3 foes were
OhioSt, PennSt, & Iowa. Minny: minus 84 pts ATS last 16 games. Cyclones!
PROPHECY: IOWA STATE 27 - Minnesota 20 RATING: 2
PLAYBOOK
4* BEST BET
Air Force over Houston by 7
A rematch of last year’s Armed Forces Bowl when the Cougars held
off the Falcons, 34-28, as 5.5-point favorites. This year Houston
enters as a 4.5-point choice but we look for the Falcons to turn the
tables on the Cougars from Conference USA. Our database also
reminds us that bowlers off a loss in the same bowl they won last
year are just 3-12 ATS while Military bowlers are a sound 20-8 ATS,
including 12-2 ATS if they allow less than 20 PPG. Our College Bowl
Stat Report points out that there could be some matchup problems
this afternoon in Fort Worth for Kevin Sumlin’s explosive Cougars.
Their leaky 111th-ranked rush defense, which allowed 213 YPG and
5.0 YPR, will have their secondary full with the Force’s 4th-ranked
rushing attack. Even QB Case Keenum and his No. 1 ranked passing
show may fi nd the going tough against Troy Calhoun’s top-rated
pass defense. They say good pitching stops good hitting and a good
defense stops a good offense. Who are we to argue – especially
when we’re getting points? The Flyboys lost the previous two Armed
Forces Bowls despite scoring 64 points. This time they have the
weapons to halt a serious aerial attack. With the Mountain West
Conference off to a 3-0 SU and ATS start to this bowl season, we’ll
look for some major ground control as Air Force rewards its 3rd-year
head coach with his fi rst bowl victory.
Air Force over Houston by 7
Oklahoma over Stanford by 1
We’re not quite sure how “Big Game” Bob Stoops got his nickname but
it must not be from bowl games, where he is a pathetic 4-6 SU and 3-7
ATS, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than six points. ‘Luck’ doesn’t
appear to be on the side(lines) of the Cardinal this afternoon in El Paso
as their phenom freshman QB is listed as doubtful. Note: Andrew Luck’s
backup is SR Tavita Pritchard, last year’s starter. That won’t stop us from
backing Jim Harbaugh’s bunch as they arrive as substantial dogs with a
‘double-deuce’ offense. Pac-10 bowl dogs are a terrifi c 16-4 ATS, including
9-1 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. In fact, the dog in
Cardinal bowl games is a spotless 5-0 ATS, winning four of those games
in straight-up fashion. The boys from Stanford also arrive in one of our
favorites roles, as a bowl virgin (no bowl last 3 years) dog of 8 or more
points. These virgins beat the spread at a 20-9-3 ATS clip. Our reliable
database is certainly not new at this and it comes up with this cherry:
favorites in non-BCS bowl games that appeared in the BCS Championship
Game the previous year are just 1-5 ATS. It also points out that bowl
favorites of seven or more points off a shutout win are 0-4 ATS since 1997.
The clincher? Sun Bowl favorites are a lame 2-13 ATS. We realize this isn’t
a ‘big game’ for the underachieving Sooners but we’ll look for them to
once again ‘stoop’ to the level of their competition. Grab the points with
the hungrier dogs.
Navy over Missouri by 1
We’ll look for another Military team to take the state of Texas by storm
before the ball drops as the Naval Academy will be anxious to snap
a three-game bowl losing skid. Despite the losses, the Middies have
garnered the cash in four of their last fi ve bowl games and we have no
reason to believe that Navy won’t seal the deal once again – especially
with Big 12 bowl favorites a shrunken 1-11 ATS off back-to-back SU
wins. We mentioned earlier that Military bowlers are a prosperous 20-8
ATS. We can tighten that number to 15-5 ATS if we bring them in off
a SU win. The Midshipmen, themselves, have been solid on neutral or
away ground as a dog off a SU win, registering a 24-8-2 ATS log. They’re
also high above sea level whether on enemy turf or in neutral territory
after scoring 17 or less points in back-to-back games, checking in with a
20-4 ATS journal. While we commend the job Gary Pinkel has done with
a Tigers squad that was ravaged by graduation losses, we must point out
their stripe-less 10-27-1 ATS record as a favorite off a win in which they
allow 100 or more rushing yards. With Navy averaging over 286 YPG on
the ground, we certainly want none of that. Neither should you as we
expect Ken Niumatalolo’s battlers to get back on bowl track.
Iowa St over Minnesota by 3
In the ‘Who Cares’ Bowl, a pair of 6-6 squads square off with absolutely
nothing at stake. Even the ESPN family of networks is treating this like
a red-headed stepchild as it is passing it off to the NFL Network. The
Foldin’ Gophers are making their 3rd appearance in Tempe in the last
four years and it doesn’t appear as if they have much interest either,
dropping each of their previous two bowling matches. While we can
make a case for Brewster’s boys by pointing out that Big 10 bowlers
are 15-6 ATS versus the Big 12, and that Minny is 3-1 ATS against this
conference, we should also warn you that the Gophers were easily
handled by Big 12 member Kansas in this bowl last year. You should also
be aware that bowl favorites off a shutout loss are 0-3 ATS. However,
before taking a ride on the ‘Cyclone’, be cognizant of the fact that Big
12 bowlers are a dizzy 3-12 ATS when tackling opponents off a doubledigit
loss. Iowa State is 3-0 ATS as a bowler versus .666 or less opposition
but, then again, there’s that 1st-year head coach thing. With this game
virtually a toss-up, we’ll let our database cast the deciding vote: .750 or
less bowl favorites whose offensive yards per carry is less than 3.5 and
whose team net yards per rush differential is less than zero are 8-24
ATS. Look for Minnesota to end their year on a losing note for the fifth
straight season.
Tennessee over Virginia Tech by 4
With all the success the Hokies have had under Frank Beamer, we ‘betcha
didn’t know’ that they are an inconceivable 0-6 SU and ATS in bowl
games off a previous bowl win. While that one still has us scratching
our heads, the ACC’s 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS bowl mark versus the SEC
had us digging in our wallets for a little scratch (Clemson eked out a
win over Kentucky Sunday night in the Music City Bowl). And we dug
a little deeper when we realized SEC bowl dogs are 9-1 ATS versus an
opponent off a SU win and 23-5 ATS as dogs of three or more points in
pre-New Year’s Day Bowl games. If these numbers hold true to form,
we’ll be ringing in the New Year in a prosperous way as this one should
end shortly before midnight. While we don’t need Dick Clark to tell us
that Virginia Tech is just 2-7 SU and 3-6 versus the SEC since 1990 or that
the Hokies are 2-7 SU and ATS as bowlers off a double-digit win, we will
need him to do the countdown as we’ll be busy counting our cash. All
this and we didn’t even mention that Monte Kiffi n’s stop unit held four
foes to season-low yardage. Amy Grant had us convinced it doesn’t get
much better than a Tennessee Christmas but we’re sure you’ll agree this
Tennessee New Year isn’t far behind. Seeing your man ‘Volunteer” some
green on New Year’s Eve – now that’s one auld acquaintance that should
not be forgot!!
CKO
11 IOWA STATE over Minnesota
IOWA STATE 28 - Minnesota 20
CKO insiders report ISU is a well-unified team under first-year HC Paul Rhoads, who believes his defense can hold its own when not overmatched by the speedy spread attacks the Cyclones had to deal with repeatedly in the Big XII. With top WR Eric Decker (foot injury) out for 6-6 Minnesota, Rhoads gets a chance to prove his point. Rhoads, who helped build tough defenses at Pitt & Auburn, saw his offense improve TY under the direction of creative coordinator Tom Herman, the inspiration behind the Rice attacks of 2007-08. (Insight Bowl at Tempe, AZ)
10 AIR FORCE over Houston
AIR FORCE 33 - Houston 27
These two are familiar after splitting a pair (including this bowl) a year ago. But a distinction can also be made, as vet AFA (ranks tops in nation vs. pass) has much the same look as the “D” that did a decent job slowing prolific UH QB Case Keenum LY, while rebuilt Coug stop unit figures to be on its heels vs. Falc option after failing to impede opposing infantries all season (UH ranked a poor 113th vs. run). Those shortcomings were a main reason Cougs fared poorly as road chalk TY (just 1-4 vs. line), and early failures of other C-USA “bowlers” UCF & USM another ominous sign for UH.
NELLYS GREENSHEET
Houston (-4½) Air Force (62)
If this match-up seems familiar, you are not mistaken, these teams met last season in the
regular season and in this bowl game. Last year Air Force won the first meeting 31-28 and
Houston won the bowl game 34-28 in two exciting games. The Cougars had their share of
entertaining games this season, with six games decided by a touchdown or less while also
featuring one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. While Houston enters this game
with a 10-3 record there are some concerns on defense, as the Cougars allow nearly 29
points per game, almost double what Air Force allows per game. Opponents are rushing for
213 yards per game against Houston and Air Force brings a triple option attack that was the
third most productive rushing unit in the nation. Houston QB Case Keenum has thrown 43
touchdowns this season with 71 percent completions so he can take over games and get the
Cougars points in a hurry. Air Force lost five games this season but four of the five losses
came on the road and two losses came in OT. Only one loss came by more than seven
points, and the Falcons also gave undefeated TCU its closest game of the year. This will be a
classic rush vs. pass game as Air Force has out-rushed nine of the last ten opponents and
Houston has been out-rushed in ten straight. Those types of games generally favor the
rushing underdogs and Air Force has battled through a slightly tougher overall schedule
despite a few big name wins for Houston. This game is in the state of Texas but Air Force will
also be well supported in this match-up and Houston has been a bowl disappointment in
recent years with three straight S/U and ATS losses before a very narrow and fortunate win
and cover last year. AIR FORCE BY 3
RATING 3: Air Force (+4½) over Houston
Oklahoma (-7½) Stanford (55½)
Promising young QB Andrew Luck is unlikely to play for Stanford in this game with a finger
injury but senior back-up Tavita Pritchard has made 19 starts for the Cardinal and is well liked
and supported on this team. While Luck brings another dimension to the passing game,
Stanford is a rush-first team led by Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. Stanford rushes for 224
yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry and the balance on the offense is exceptional, leading
to over 36 points scored per game. Facing the Oklahoma defense will be an extreme
challenge as the Sooners are allowing just less than 14 points per game with strong numbers
against the run. Oklahoma only won one game away from home all season however, losing
two neutral site games and going 1-3 in road games. Despite dominant overall per-game
averages on offense and defense, Oklahoma was out-gained and out-scored in non-home
games for the season by fairly significant margins. All four of Stanford’s losses came in close
games with final margins of ten points or less and only once this season was Stanford held
below 24 points. This is not the type of bowl game that Oklahoma is accustomed to being in
so the motivation for the Sooners could be suspect, especially with a few key players already
declaring for the NFL. Oklahoma also enters this game feeling good after a dominant finale
victory over rival Oklahoma State. Stanford meanwhile is very excited to be in the Sun Bowl
and getting to match-up with a storied program. This is the first Stanford bowl appearance
since 2001 and the first under Coach Harbaugh who has made it clear to his players and staff
that he is sticking around. While Oklahoma is accustomed to playing on a bigger stage this
time of year, Stanford should not be considered any less of an opponent, even though it will
be tough for Coach Stoops to get his players to think that way. The Cardinal played
commendably though a very strong Pac-10 this season and at times looked like the best team
in the conference. Oklahoma is also 0-3 S/U and ATS in the past three bowl games and
rumors for Coach Stoops and the NFL can not help the focus here even if they are unfounded.
This line is inflated based on the QB being out but Oklahoma has greater QB issues with
Landry Jones completing just 58 percent of his passes and single-handedly losing a few
games with interceptions. STANFORD BY 3
RATING 5: Stanford (+7½) over Oklahoma
Missouri (-6½) Navy (52½)
Missouri has four losses on the season, the same number they finished with last year but it
has seemed like a big step back. The Tigers did not beat any of the top teams in the Big XII as
the only wins over bowl teams came against Bowling Green, Nevada and Iowa State. The
losses were often ugly as well, losing three games by double-digits and also falling at home
against Baylor as a heavy favorite. Some of the rough stretches came with their impressive
sophomore QB at less than 100 percent and Blaine Gabbert is a promising player in the Big
XII that played well in his first year of significant action. The key for success in this game for
Missouri will come on defense however as the Tigers allowed 358 yards per game. The
biggest struggles came against passing teams however so this could be a favorable match-up
for Missouri. Navy was fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 272 yards per game, going 9-
4 through a typically weak schedule. Navy actually closed the year on a 1-4 ATS run, getting
out-gained in four of the final five games as the defense showed significant vulnerability. Navy
could actually pass a bit more than usual in this match-up as there will be some opportunities
for match-up advantages while Missouri will likely lead an air attack as well. This could be a
higher scoring game despite a modest total and there could be big plays on both sides as the
secondary looks like a weakness for both teams. Missouri has been a solid bowl performer in
recent years and while Navy is often an attractive underdog the lines have come down on the
Midshipmen in recent years. Navy has lost three straight bowl games and this line may be low
enough for Missouri to sneak by for the victory and a narrow cover. The Tigers have had a lot
of time to prepare for this match-up as Navy is locked into this bowl game. MISSOURI BY 9
RATING 1: Missouri (-6½) over Navy
RATING 3: ‘OVER’ (52½) Missouri/Navy
Minnesota (-2½) Iowa State (48½)
Statistically neither Minnesota nor Iowa State looks worthy of a bowl game as both teams
have been out-scored on the season in 6-6 campaigns that included a FCS win. Both teams
were also soundly out-gained on the season by an average or more than 50 yards per game.
Minnesota was a horrendous rushing team this season, averaging just 97 yards per game, a
far cry from the Mason era numbers but the Gophers did have to play a schedule that was full
of strong run defenses. The injury to WR Eric Decker can not be understated for the impact on
this offense but QB Adam Weber had a very disappointing junior year in his third year as a
starter. While Iowa State appears to be a solid rushing team, those numbers were built early
in the year and the Cyclones averaged just 13 points scored per game in the final five games
of the year, getting out-gained by at least 80 yards in all five of those games despite picking
up two wins. Minnesota did beat four teams that are playing in bowl games as they faced the
toughest schedule in the Big Ten which could account for some of the ugly figures. Iowa
State’s only win over a bowl-eligible team came in a 9-7 victory over Nebraska in a game
where they were handed eight turnovers. It has been a discouraging season for Minnesota
and Coach Tim Brewster and after a blowout bowl loss last season this is a great opportunity
for redemption going up against a natural rival although these teams have not played since
’97. Iowa State’s bowl bid this season may be one of the most unexpected in the nation as the
Cyclones were just 2-10 last season and then had its coach abandon the team for a promotion
to Auburn. Paul Rhoads will get credit for a great turnaround season and he has done a nice
job with the running game and QB Austen Arnaud but the 6-6 mark came with plenty of good
fortune and a very favorable schedule. Iowa State is thrilled to be back in a bowl game but the
Gophers should be more focused with eyes on a more successful trip to Tempe this season
after losing to Kansas in the Insight Bowl last year. MINNESOTA BY 7
RATING 2: Minnesota (-2½) over Iowa State
Virginia Tech (-4½) Tennessee (49½)
The three losses for Virginia Tech came by a total of 18 points and two of those opponents will
be playing in BCS bowls. Tennessee also lost to two teams that will be playing in major bowl
games and the Volunteers seem to be getting a lot of credit for playing close in those games
despite very few impressive wins on the season. Presumably the SEC schedule would be
tougher than the ACC slate but the Hokies played an incredibly tough non-conference
schedule facing SEC champion Alabama, Big XII North champion Nebraska, and C-USA
champion East Carolina. Virginia Tech has been the superior scoring team in this match-up
and holds opponents to just 300 yards per game despite that tough schedule. The Hokies
closed the season with four dominant defensive performances, out-gaining each of the final
four foes by over 100 yards and allowing only 35 points in those games. Tennessee gets a
reputation as a strong defensive team but eight times this season the Volunteers allowed 19
or more points. Tennessee only won once on the road this season as well and needed OT to
get that win while Virginia Tech has the advantage of having played at the Georgia Dome
already this season. The Hokies rush for 206 yards per game which should be a big
advantage in this match-up as the Tennessee rush defense has been burned in several
games, getting out-rushed significantly against every quality team faced. Virginia Tech also
should have big advantages in special teams play as Hokies teams often do, and Frank
Beamer has far more experience in these types of games. Lane Kiffin gained a lot of attention
in his first season but rarely was it for what his team did on the field. VIRGINIA TECH BY 17
RATING 5: Virginia Tech (-4½) over Tennessee
THE GOLDSHEET
Air Force 30 - Houston 27—They meet again. Oddly enough, this matchup
has become something of a fixture in the Metroplex, with the teams battling for
a third time in the past 15 months in Dallas or Fort Worth. Last year’s regularseason
meeting was moved from Houston to SMU’s Ford Stadium due to
Hurricane Ike in the Gulf, with Air Force holding on for a 31-28 win despite failing
to complete a pass. UH subsequently earned its revenge in this bowl game last
December 30, never trailing but never pulling away, either, in a 34-28 final,
earning the narrow cover on a late 37-yard FG.
That familiarity with one another presents some interesting dynamics in this
rubber match, further magnified by their absolute contrast in styles. As is often
the case in matchups between such radically different offensive philosophies,
it’s the respective defenses that will likely determine the outcome. In that
regard, it’s worth noting that the Cougs did a better job slowing the potent Falcon
option in last year’s rematch (allowing only 245 YR after getting gouged for 380
YR in the first meeting), but still figure to be hard-pressed to slow AFA’s ground
assault after consistently failing to slow competent infantry attacks throughout
‘09, ranking a poor 113th vs. the rush. And it’s not lost on Falc HC Troy Calhoun
that his option is a good way to move the chains and clock and keep UH’s video
football and prolific QB Case Keenum (43 TDP; 75 pass attempts in the C-USA
title game!) on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the veteran Force “D” has a chance to
match wits with Keenum after facing him twice a year ago and ranking first
nationally vs. the pass this season. If the Falcs option can indeed shorten the
game, we like their chances to score a mild upset.
Missouri 36 - Navy 24—This is the seventh straight bowl appearance for
Navy, which continues to punch above its weight on the strength of a relentless
rushing attack and a defense that mostly makes up with moxie what it lacks in
overall size & speed. The Midshipmen are established road warriors who love
playing in Texas, the home state of several players. And the well-synchronized
Navy triple-option offense can flabbergast even the soundest of stop units.
Still, we doubt the Mids can stay with motivated Missouri. After being slowed
by a mid-season ankle injury, highly-touted 6-5, 240 soph QB Blaine Gabbert
was in a groove during November, throwing for 1406 yards & 8 TDs with no
interceptions in the final four games of the regular campaign. And all-world,
Plaxico Burress-sized 6-5 sr. WR Danario Alexander (49 catches for 820 yards
& 5 TDs over the same span!) is just one of the many Tigers who hail from the
Lone Star State. In fact, scouts report that Mizzou HC Gary Pinkel considers this
a key recruiting trip, offering free tickets to local prep coaches who want to
attend the game. And Columbia insiders also say Pinkel has taken special
notice of the fact that his Tigers ended up below Insight Bowl-bound Iowa State
on the Big XII’s post-season food chain despite beating the Cyclones in the
regular season and finishing above them in the standings. With a stout rush
defense (just 96 ypg & 2.9 ypc) spearheaded by fiery A-A sr. LB Sean
Weatherspoon, another Texan, the miffed Mizzou mentor should be able to vent
some of his frustration on a “ground-centric” Navy squad that still lacks a
dynamic aerial threat (only 71 ypg passing—worst in the nation).
Iowa State 23 - Minnesota 20—TGS insiders say Tim Brewster is in trouble
at Minnesota. The latest PR gaffe in the head coach’s stormy three-season
tenure with the Golden Gophers had Brewster’s agent reportedly floating a false
rumor to local media that Kansas had interest in hiring his client (the Jayhawks
didn’t), apparently in a failed attempt to strong-arm a contract extension out of
now-ticked-off Minny athletic director Joel Maturi. Despite a second straight
minor bowl bid following his disastrous 1-11 rookie campaign, the cocksure
Brewster’s cause isn’t being helped much by the on-field product. The Gophers
closed the 2008 season on a five-game losing streak. Then this year the
purportedly deeper offense almost completely collapsed after a foot injury
sidelined star sr. WR Eric Decker, who remains out for this game. Minnesota
was held to fewer than 300 yards in five of its final six regular-season contests,
and, during four games over that span, the toothless Gophers managed a notso-
grand total of just 23 points.(DNP...SR: Minnesota 22-2-1)
Prefer to back an Iowa State program that appears to be on the rise under new
head coach Paul Rhoads. The former Pitt defensive coordinator’s plucky
Cyclones persevered despite potentially debilitating injuries to starting QB
Austen Arnaud & star RB Alexander Robinson, earning ISU’s first post-season
bid since 2005. With the resourceful jr. Arnaud (13 TDP, 7 TDR) and the
versatile Robinson (9 TDs, 1058 YR on 5 ypc) now both 100%, no surprise if the
Cyclones generate just enough offense to slip past money-burning Minny (only
five covers in its last 16 board games).
(DNP...SR: Minnesota 22-2-1)
Oklahoma 33 - Stanford 29—The X-Factor looms large in this bowl.
Stanford’s playmaking RS frosh QB Andrew Luck is doubtful following finger
surgery after the regular season, with backup Tavita Pritchard (2 of 3 passing
TY) expected to start. Pritchard disappointed as the starter LY (10 TDs vs. 13
ints.), but he is a senior, and in 2007 he helped engineer the biggest upset on
THE GOLD SHEET records, throwing the winning TDP to enable the 40½-point
underdog Cardinal to topple Southern Cal at the Coliseum, 24-23. Luck is
scheduled to be re-evaluated the week of the game.
If the playmaking Luck is out, the question du jour becomes: Can RB Toby
Gerhart (1736 YR) still provide Stanford with its customary ball control vs. the
deep and athletic Oklahoma front seven, led by A-A DT Gerald McCoy and DE
Jeremy Beal? Despite their inconsistencies on offense, the Sooners were
usually pretty fierce on defense, finishing 7th overall, 7th in scoring, and 7th vs.
the run. Gerhart’s clock-eating rushes are needed not only to set up the Cardinal
passing game, but also to protect its depth-shy defense. Stanford gave up 34
points or more in 5 of its last 7 games.
However, Oklahoma has questions of its own. The Sooners were a robust 6-
0 at home, scoring 46 ppg. Away from Norman, however, OU was far from
brilliant, going only 1-5 SU (1-4-1 vs. the spread) and tallying only 16 ppg. RS
frosh Landry Jones, while admirably stepping in for injured Heisman Trophywinning
QB Sam Bradford, was sensational at home (62.1%, 18 TDs, 4 ints.),
but quite freshman-like (54.6%, 5 TDs, 9 ints.) on the road.
The Sooners fought through injuries virtually all season, including the loss of
A-A TE Jermaine Gresham before the season even started, and then Bradford
in the opener, not to mention several OLmen during the campaign. Just a year
ago, OU lost the BCS title game 24-14 to Florida, so the Sooners’ 7-5 mark TY
is quite a disappointment to them. As is a Sun Bowl berth after three straight bigpayday
BCS bowls.
Bottom line: Gerhart and fiery HC Harbaugh give the Cardinal a chance. A
little bit of (a healthy) Luck vs. the faster, deeper Sooners would give them a
better chance. (DNP...SR: Oklahoma 3-1)
*Tennessee 21 - Virginia Tech 20—Fascinating matchup between the oldschool
Virginia Tech regime and the brash new leadership at Tennessee. Frank
Beamer has been the head Hokie for 23 seasons (the second-longest tenure in
the nation behind Joe Paterno now that Bobby Bowden is bowing out at Florida
State). Several of his assistants—including recently-retained & highly-regarded
defensive coordinator Bud Foster—have been at Tech for more than a decade,
and the Hokies will be making their 17th straight bowl appearance. Not that the
storied Volunteers don’t have a rich post-season history of their own. But UT is
definitely in transition under glib new head coach Lane Kiffin, who’s been making
lots of headlines for his provocative comments and frequent run-ins with the
NCAA during his short time at the helm in Knoxville.
We look forward to Kiffin’s trash talking re-adding spice to the Vols’ rivalry with
Florida (remember the glee Steve Spurrier used to take in publically needling
Phil Fulmer?). And Tennessee, which won 4 of its last 5 games, definitely
improved over the course of this year’s campaign. But still, are the 7-5 Vols
really capable of upsetting a Tech side looking to nail down its sixth straight 10-
win campaign? Most definitely. Maligned UT sr. QB Jonathan Crompton
blossomed under his new coaches, firing 21 TDP vs. only 5 interceptions in the
last nine games. And don’t be surprised if undersung Vol sr. RB Montario
Hardesty (1306 YR & 13 TDs) outduels more-publicized RS frosh Hokie
counterpart Ryan Williams (1538 YR & 20 TDs).
GOLD SHEET EXTRA
NAVY vs. MISSOURI (Texas, December 31)...Rematch of 1961 Orange
Bowl, won by Mizzou 21-14 over Joe Bellinio’s Navy in a game that was
played in front of President-elect Kennedy. A star of game was Mizzou LB
Andy Russell, future Steelers All-Pro. Niumatalolo only 11-12 vs. number
since LY, but he was 3-1 as dog TY, and Mids still 35-18 vs. number away
from Annapolis since late ‘02. Navy has also covered 4 of last 5 bowls (barely
missing LY vs. Wake). Missouri only 2-6 last 8 and 3-7 last 10 vs. number TY
but did cover 4 of 6 away from Columbia (Tigers 0-5 vs. line as host TY).
Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE vs. HOUSTON (Armed Forces, December 31)... Double
rematch from LY when teams split a pair of meetings in the Metroplex,
including this bowl. Cougs 1-4 vs. line as chalk away from home TY, 2-9 in
role since LY. Falcs covered 4 of last 5 TY, and Calhoun solid 22-13 overall
vs. number since taking over Falcs in ‘07. Tech edge-Air Force, based on
UH road chalk woes.
STANFORD vs. OKLAHOMA (Sun, December 31)...Bob Stoops no
covers last 3 of 5 of last 6 bowls. Sooners just 1-4-1 vs. line away from home
TY, 1-5-1 last 7 in role since late LY, 1-4 as road chalk TY. Harbaugh only 4-
8 vs. line away from Farm since LY (2-3 TY). Dogs of 7 or more 58-28 vs. line
in bowls since 2000, and Pac-10 5-0 vs. line in bowls LY. Tech edge-
Stanford, based on team and bowl trends.
IOWA STATE vs. MINNESOTA (Insight, December 31)...Minnesota
returns to Tempe for this game after getting whipped 42-21 by Kansas LY.
Gophers just 4-7 vs. line TY and 5-11 vs. number last 16 on board. Brewster
also just 2-5 vs. line last 7 as chalk (albeit slight chalk here) and has covered
just 1 of last 6 away from home. Third appearance last 4 years in this bowl for
Gophers, painful losers in first two (did cover in ‘06 vs. Texas Tech but blew
a huge halftime lead and cost Glen Mason his job). Paul Rhoads 7-4 vs. line
TY and 4-2 vs. number away from home.
based on Minnesota negatives.
TENNESSEE vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Chick-fil-A, December 31)... Beamer
26-12 vs. line away from home since ‘04 and also covered his last 4 on the
board TY. Hokies however have lost last two games at Georgia Dome (vs. Bama
in opener TY and in this game vs. Georgia in ‘06). Lane Kiffin 3-1 vs. line away TY
and 2-1 as dog. Tech edge-slight to VT, based on extended road mark.
NC POWERPLAYS
What a contrast of styles for the 2nd straight year. The Cougars do thru the air and are forecasted
with almost 400 passing yards while AF gains almost 350 yds rushing. We’ll pass on this one.
NO PLAY: HOUSTON 33 AIR FORCE 31
PP says this will be close to the line showing OU with a 9 pt win (line 8) and a 450-335 yd edge.
However, it’s tough to imagine the Sooners will have as much motivation as Stanford in this one.
NO PLAY: OKLAHOMA 32 STANFORD 23
Run versus pass and PP says Mizzou will win by 5 (line 6’) with a 404-311 yd edge. MU is
bewildered to end up in this bowl after being passed up for two 6-6 B12 tms. This is Navy’s 3rd trip
to Texas TY and they recruit heavily here (14 Texans on 2 deep).
NO PLAY: MISSOURI 28 NAVY 23
PP calls this one right at the line also showing Minny with a 2 pt win with the ydg forecast almost
even. ISU is thrilled to be in a bowl in HC Rhoads’ fi rst season, but Minny needs a bowl win.
NO PLAY: MINNESOTA 23 IOWA ST 21
PP says VT will win by 11 (line 4) but curiously gives Tenn a 350-345 yd edge. These are 2 of
the top defenses in the country and we expect a tough defensive struggle with the fi nal closer to the
line than PP has it.
NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 30 TENNESSEE 21
BANG THE BOOK
Missouri finished a lack luster season with just seven wins on the season and part of that was being inconsistent combined with the ability to lose games at home where they finished just 3-3. They better be on top of their game when they face the Navy midshipmen.
Navy just defeated Army (again) and walked away with the commander’s trophy. Navy proved they can travel well and won in some intimidating venues like South bend. The thing with the Navy team is they are disciplined and always prepare to play tough.
These teams play two different styles on offense as Missouri plays more of a run-n-gun and Navy grinds it out with the Triple Option, but what may surprise this team is the defense that Navy plays. They are very good on defense and have better numbers than Missouri in every category. The Tigers have much more than that against them for this game against Navy. The 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in December. Navy is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in December and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games. Take them to win this game outright.
Texas Bowl Pick: Navy +6.5
Houston is off a very good year and they had the usual offensive explosion. They head up against the Air Force in this bowl and when a team plays a service academy it is never easy. The disciplined style of football will begin to wear on even the best teams in the country.
Houston had a good run and one ten games but came up short in the championship game losing to East Carolina. Case Keenum has been an outstanding quarterback and has put up some big numbers against opponents this year. This is the time for them to make up for that game. The Air force academy has lost to many of the high power offenses they have faced on the season such as BYU and Utah. They will face another tough offense that averaged over 43 points a game on the season when they face the Cougars. Air Force has always been a tough opponent but they are in way over their head for this game against Houston. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Take the Cougars as they will win this game by double digits going away.
Armed Forces Bowl Pick: Houston -4.5
Oklahoma was looking forward to a great football campaign in 2009 but it went south early as they lost quarterback Sam Bradford due to injuries and lost plenty of games along the way. BYU knocked out Bradford and it seemed like the Sooners spent the rest of the year looking for their identity. The Stanford Cardinal had another impressive campaign and it looks like they will be a mainstay in the college football top 25 as long as they keep playing like this. They have a great offensive year behind Heisman candidate, Toby Gerhart and the season was highlighted with another signature win over USC that ended in a blowout. This line jumped off the page at me when it opened at -12 and now has fallen (rightfully so) to just eight points as Oklahoma is a big favorite. It does favor Oklahoma that they are playing this game in Texas but the Cardinal seems to travel well. This line is this high fro a reason it’s because OU has the edge on defense in this game and can stop the vaulted offense of the Cardinal. Stanford Cardinal is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Sooners are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 3-0-1 ATS against the Pac 10. Look for Oklahoma to roll in this game.
Sun Bowl Pick: Oklahoma -8
This game looks like a yawner on paper as both teams come into this game with a record of 6-6 and neither team has impressed this year on the field. Thanks to a crazy amount of bowl games there will always be room for two .500 teams trying to get that one last win and a bowl victory. Minnesota has been here before and in fact they played here last year but for Iowa St they are relishing playing in this game after finishing just 2-10 last year. Day after day Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud will run the same plays against the same opponents. But in December it’s a good kind of tedious. This is the first time Arnaud, and most of the Cyclone roster, have been able to practice this late in the year preparing for a bowl game. “Think about where we were last year, 2-10, sitting at home,” Arnaud said. “What we are doing is embracing the fact that we are practicing and have an opportunity to play on New Year’s Eve and get ourselves a win.”
But before ISU (6-6) takes on Minnesota (6-6) in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 31, the Cyclones will have gone through several weeks of practice that coaches and players compare to a winter version of spring football.
“Right now is all about developing both fifth-year seniors playing their last game and true freshmen going through their first season and bowl preparation,” Rhoads said. “Right now, it’s as the whole season has been, about improvement.”
When you look at these numbers across the board they seem even except for a glaring problem with Minnesota on the road. In road games they have had problems on offense as they average just 13 points a game. This is a road game and that could mean trouble! The Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Take the small number in this contest.
Insight Bowl Pick: Iowa St. +3
The Tennessee Volunteers may have a bright future ahead of them with Lane Kiffin at the helm but it was a rough start. The Volunteers have talked the talk but have yet to really walk the walk as the season has been full of stories off the field that has hurt the team.
For Virginia Tech it is business as usual as Frank Beamer has the Hokies on to another decent bowl game after winning nine games in the regular season. The special teams played “Beamer Ball” all year and they are ready for this game.
The stat that sticks out right away is the play on the road. The Hokies are 4-1 on the road while the Volunteers are just 1-3 on the opposing field. This means the Vols don’t travel and focus well on the road. It will be an even bigger feat to take down the Hokies since they have every edge over this Volunteer team. The Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Hokies are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. This Hokie team still has a lot to play for and the defense will overpower the Volunteers and win and cover the number in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Chick Fil A Bowl Pick: VT Hokies -4.5
Bobby Maxwel
Arizona St. -1' at UCLA
My amazing FREE run improved to 17-2 with my last 19 when Atlanta got within the number in Cleveland on Wednesday night. I'm now 40-16 with freebies the last two months and coming with a college hoops winner today on Arizona State as the Sun Devils open the Pac-10 season at UCLA.
Arizona State is going to walk into Pauley Pavilion today and deliver a 10-point victory. This is an easy call on the college hardwood as UCLA has absolutely no offensive talent and the Sun Devils have played pretty good defense all season.
Arizona State has allowed just one opponent to get more than 65 points in a game this season. They have held Duke to just 64 points and a very good Baylor squad to 64 points. The Sun Devils have won four in a row, including a win over a very good San Diego State team.
Meanwhile, UCLA is having its worst year in decades, having dropped six of nine and five in a row early in the season to some very bad teams. And while you might think they are getting better, having won two straight, they were against a bad Colorado State team by just 12 points and a dreadful Delaware State squad in an unlined game.
The Bruins only manage 68 points a game and Arizona State allows just 54.5 and holds the opposition to 38 percent shooting from the field.
Arizona State won both matchups last year, when UCLA was decent. The Sun Devils have cashed in six of the last eight meetings and seven of the last 10 in Southern California. Play Arizona State to get an easy one here.
4♦ ARIZONA ST.
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma +9 at GONZAGA
Mark Few has never had a more inexperienced team in his 11 years at Gonzaga. Few has nine freshmen.
The Bulldogs probably are still good enough to win the West Coast Conference, but they are not a regional power anymore.
Gonzaga lost at home to Wake Forest and two games ago was pounded by Duke, 76-41, at neutral site Madison Square Garden. The Bulldogs hadn't lost that bad since 1990.
The Bulldogs are 2-5-1 against the spread in their past eight home contests. The have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games versus Big 12 Conference opponents.
Oklahoma also is a young team. But the Sooners have tremendous talent with sophomore guard Willie Warren, the Big 12 Freshman of the Year last season, along with freshmen guard Tommy Mason-Griffin and center Tiny Gallon.
The Sooners should be motivated after having their six-game winning streak snapped in their last game, an 89-74 loss to UTEP in the All-College Classic in Oklahoma City on Dec. 21.
Oklahoma will be well rested having last played 10 days ago. Gonzaga played on Monday. The Bulldogs have to play on the road against Illinois on Saturday. The Sooners don't have to play again until Monday when they host Maryland Eastern-Shore.
5♦ OKLAHOMA
Great Lakes Sports
Oregon State at Washington
Pick: Washington Huskies
The Favorite in this series is an outstanding 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, and while the Washington Huskies are a very respectable 9-2 straight up they are 5-2 ATS vs the Oregon State Beavers their last seven meetings in this series. The Oregon State Beavers is also a horrible 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Pac 10. We look for the Washington Huskies to grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
Johnny Banks
Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -4
The Bulls have been dominated on the road this season and it will continue in Detroit Thursday afternoon. The Bulls opponents have out-scored them by an average of 12.7 points per game over their 13 road games this season. The Pistons will be very strong defensively today after giving up triple digits in back to back games which has not happened since November 22nd. Piston win and cover by 10 point or more at home Thursday so take them as your free winner.