Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +2
Bottom Line: Philly has it going with back-to-back quality wins and I'll ride the 76ers here while they're hot. In fact, Philly is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.6 to 100. Both of these teams just played last night, but the edge has to go to the 76ers when you consider that they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest while the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The 76ers are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog while the Clippers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Philly.
Jack Jones
Tennessee U vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Under 50
I think the defenses show up big here tonight. The Volunteer defense has played some talented offenses this year and virtually shut them down. They are holding teams to 21 ppg compared to their 26 ppg season avarege. They are allowing 4.2 yards per rush compared to the oppositions' 4.5 ypr average, and 5.3 yards per pass attempt compared to their opponent's 6.9 passing yards per attempt average.
Virginia Tech can play some defense too, holding opponents to just 15.7 ppg compared to their season average of 26.4. Against the run they are only allowing 3.8 yards per rush and against the pass 5.7 per attempt.
Give both of these defenses a month to prepare for their opponent and I think the result is going to be a very low scoring game here tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +1.68 over DETROIT
The Red Wings have been shutout in three of its last four games and that alone makes them a huge risk at this price. The team is simply not generating enough offense. They were shutout by the Jackets last game, a team that has had more defensive breakdowns than just about anyone. Yeah, the Joe will be electric on New Year’s Eve but so what. The AV’s have been terrific on the road and they’ve also been great against the Northeast, going a perfect 4-0-0 thus far. Oh, against the East overall, Colorado has gone 8-2-1. It’s also worth noting that the Av’s have been staying out of the box and in fact, has taken just one minor penalty in its last two games. Keep the Red Wings off the power-play and their chances of scoring are even worse. Anyway, no matter how you break it down, this one is an overlay for sure and that makes the Avalanche a good wager. Play: Colorado +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA -½ +1.27 over Montreal
The Habs are looking much better these days for sure but damn, this is a tough spot. Montreal will be playing its third game in four days and its seventh straight on the road. They played last night in Tampa Bay and this one starts at 5:00 PM EST, which means they’ll be back on the ice after finishing a game last night about 10:00 PM. That in itself is a quirk in the schedule and it’s not like the Habs are in a desperate situation, as they’ve won five of its last six games. The Panthers are rested and will be raring to go after three losses in its last four. The Panthers will also get Cory Stillman back tonight and that gives them another scoring forward that will bring a ton of energy to the team. One has to figure the Habs to be running strictly on fumes here after that physical and intense OT win last night. Play: Florida -½ +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ -1.05 over New Jersey
The Blackhawks catch the Devils at precisely the right time here, as New Jersey beat the hated Penguins last night, 2-0. Now the Devils will travel to play a team they rarely see for its third game in four days. The Devils are an established power in this league and have been for years so for them this is just another game. The Blackhawks on the other hand will get a chance to play against one of the best in ideal circumstances in what should feature one of the rowdiest crowds in years. Chicago is rested, they’re playing great hockey, they’re absolutely loaded and they might just hand this tired intruder a beating. This wager looks so good. Play: Chicago -½ -1.05 (Risking 3.15 units to win 3).
DETROIT –4½ over Chicago
The Pistons have dropped an incredible eight straight games but this is where it ends. Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon are all back in the lineup following lengthy absences and this will be the third game back for all three. The good news is that this assignment couldn’t be any easier. The Bulls are a bad team and you can triple that on the road where they’ve won just twice in 13 tries. They beat the Pacers in its last game but allowed that team an eye-opening 38 points in the second quarter to get back into it. So, not only have the Pistons lost eight in a row but they’ve also dropped four straight to the Bulls and both those sets of results will have them extra jacked up here. The Pistons have to win this game and frankly, it’s just so highly unlikely that they won’t come out firing on all cylinders and perhaps put together its best game of the year on New Year’s Eve (well sort of, the game tips off at 3:00 PM). Play: Detroit –4½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Mr. Vegas Wins
Navy/Missouri
Navy has not had a tough schedule and dinished the season on a down note, a loss at Hawaii, a tough 24-17 defeat. "We're crushed right now," Ken Niumatalolo said. Navy is 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS the last three years in bowls. Missouri (8-4) finished up on a 3-0 run as the offense got back in gear. 6-5 QB sophomore Blaine Gabbert (23 TDs, 7 picks, 3,302 yds) leads a good spread attack, one averaging 30 points, 132 yards rushing and 285 passing. There is a ton of deep speed in the receiving corps in senior WR Jared Perry (696 yards) and 6-foot-5 senior WR Danario Alexander (1,644 yards, 13 TDs). In his last four games, Alexander has 49 catches for 811 yards and 7 touchdowns. Play Missouri.
WUNDERDOG
Sacramento State at Eastern Washington
Pick: Sacramento State +6.5
Eastern Washington has always had the talent edge on most of the Big Sky teams especially at home, but it is becoming more and more apparent that this team does not. The Hornets are definitely closing the gap as the last two seasons combined saw them only garner six total wins, but have already matched that total this season. They had two of the losses by 1 and 4 points, so this team is much better than what we have seen here in quite some time, while Eastern Washington sporting one of their worst. The Hornets are getting it done on the road at 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven, while the Eagles, once dominant at home, have failed to cover in each of their last four. I'll go with Sacramento State here.
BIG AL
Iowa State & Minnesota
The Golden Gophers were a poor rushing team this past season, as they averaged just 98 yards per game, on 2.9 yards per rush (against foes who gave up, on average 3.4 yards per rush). That does not bode well here, in this Insight.com Bowl game, as teams with a rushing average of 125 yards per game (or worse) are terrible in the Bowls when NOT an underdog of +5 or more points. They cover a meager 34% of the time. Additionally, Iowa State covered seven of its last 10 games, while Minnesota only covered two of its last six.
PLAY IOWA STATE
Hollywood Sports
Louisiana Lafayette at Western Kentucky
Prediction: Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky (6-4) is a solid team with a nice 76-69 win over Vanderbilt in downtown Nashville on their record. They come off an 83-72 win over Murray State. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 at home with a strong defensive presence that holds their opponents to only 42.9% shooting and just 62.2 PPG overall. They now play a Louisiana-Lafayette club (4-8) that has lost three straight games after dropping a 73-68 contest to Centenary. One of those losses was as a 3-point favorite against Tulane -- a team Western Kentucky defeated by 14 points. The Ragin' Cajuns struggle on the road as they are just 2-4 with a shooting percentage of just 42.4%. La-Lafayette has covered just twice in their last seven games. The Hilltoppers should handle this situation easily as they have covered six of their last eight home games when favored in the 7-12.5 point range. Lay the points with Western Kentucky.
Info Plays
3* on Bulls/Pistons OVER 186
Reasons why this game goes OVER:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DETROIT) - terrible 3 point shooting team - making <=30% of their attempts. This is a 48-19 OVER System hitting 71.6% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 8-5 this season and 28-10 over the last 3 seasons as well. The Bulls have averaged 100.0 PPG in their last 2 games, while the Pistons have given up 103.0 PPG in their last 2 games.
2.) The OVER is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings in Detroit. Bet the OVER.
Black Widow
1* on Washington State -7
Washington State is backed by one of the best trends we've seen all season, thus we'll pull the trigger on the Cougars as Thursday's free pick. Oregon is just 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of =45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Finally, the Ducks are 4-24 ATS (-22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Simply put, Oregon doesn't play well against the best teams in the land. Oregon is 0-2 on the road this season, allowing 97.0 points/game. Washington State is 6-0 at home and winning by 12.3 points/game. Take Washington State and lay the points.