SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
N.Y. Jets (5-6 SU and ATS) vs. Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
(at Toronto)
The Bills and Jets head north of the border to the Rogers Centre for an AFC East clash, the second straight year that Buffalo has played a “home” game in Toronto.
Buffalo came up with a 24-point fourth quarter to erase a 14-7 deficit and whip Miami 31-14 Sunday as a 3½-point home pup. The Bills ended a three-game SU skid and have cashed in both their games under interim coach Perry Fewell, with Sunday’s effort marking their second-highest scoring output of the year. Prior to Sunday, Buffalo scored 20 points or less in eight straight games, including 15 points or less five times. Also, the defense has come to play in two games under Fewell, allowing 18 and 14 points after yielding a combined 72 points the previous two weeks in losses to Houston and Tennessee.
New York halted a three-game SU and ATS slide by topping Carolina 17-6 as a 3½-point home favorite Sunday, winning and covering for just the second time in the last eight games. The Jets field the NFL’s second-best total defense (283.9 ypg) and only allow 17.7 ppg (sixth), but their offense has produced 22 points or less in three straight games and six of 11 this year. Also, New York’s minus-5 turnover ratio rates 26th in the NFL.
Buffalo upended New York 16-13 in overtime on Oct. 18 as a 9½-point road underdog, picking off Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez five times, as the Bills won despite getting gashed for 318 rushing yards. Buffalo is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry. The road team has covered in the last four meetings, the underdog is on a 20-7 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
The SU winner has cashed in New York’s last 13 games dating to last season and nine of Buffalo’s last 10 contests.
The Bills are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 starts against losing teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-6 following a SU win and 0-4 as a pup of three points or less. The Jets’ current 2-6 SU and ATS purge is accompanied by pointspread slides of 0-5 in December, 0-4 in the division, 1-5 versus the AFC, 3-9 as a favorite and 6-14-1 against losing teams.
The under for Buffalo is on runs of 5-2 overall and 6-0 after a SU win, and the under has hit in seven of New York’s last eight December games. On the flip side, the over is 15-7 in the Bills’ last 22 December outings, and the over for the Jets is on upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 in the AFC and 5-2 from the favorite’s role.
In this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall. Also, all five Thursday NFL contests this season – including last week’s trio of Thanksgiving games – have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(13) Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) at (7) Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS)
Oregon State and Oregon meet in the 113th edition of the annual Civil War battle, and for the first time in series history, the winner will claim the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth.
Both teams were idle last week following victories on Nov. 21 that kept their conference championship hopes alive. Oregon State took down Washington State 42-10, barely covering as a 31-point road favorite, while the Ducks rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit at Arizona, getting a touchdown with six seconds remaining to force overtime, then prevailed 44-41 in the second overtime, coming up short as a six-point road chalk.
Oregon (7-1, 6-2 ATS) is alone atop the conference standings, one game ahead of the Beavers (6-2 SU and ATS). Oregon is trying to claim its first outright league title and Rose Bowl trip since 1994, while the Beavers haven’t played in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day since 1964. Since then, Oregon State has only once managed a share of the conference championship, and that was in 2000.
Oregon State enters this game having won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and six of its last seven (both SU and ATS), a run that has occurred entirely in conference action. During this seven-game stretch, Oregon has scored at least 26 points in every game, averaging 35.6 points per outing, while holding five of the seven opponents to 21 points or less. Take away the one loss – 42-36 at USC – and Oregon State has surrendered just 18.2 ppg in its last five wins.
The Ducks have won nine of 10 games since a disappointing 19-8 loss at Oregon to start the season, and they’ve scored 31 or more points in nine of the last 10, including tallying between 42 and 47 points in their last five contests (44 ppg). Defensively, Oregon has had just two poor showings in Pac-10 play – allowing 51 points to Stanford and 41 to Arizona. Other than that, the Ducks have given up 13.2 ppg in their other six Pac-10 contests. Oregon has won nine straight home games overall and eight straight Pac-10 contests in Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks went to Corvallis last year and crushed Oregon State 65-38 as a 2½-point road underdog, ending the Beavers’ two-game win streak in this rivalry and coaching Oregon State the Pac-10 title. It was the most points Oregon State had ever surrendered in a game. The visitor has won the last two meetings following a 10-game run by the host. Also, the road team has taken the cash each of the last three years (all as an underdog) after the home team went 6-1 ATS and the favorite went 5-2 ATS in the previous seven years.
For the season, the Beavers put up 32.4 points and 422.2 total yards per game (149 rushing ypg, 4.2 yards per carry), with QB Sean Canfield completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,805 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, Oregon State yields 22.2 points and 340.5 yards per contest (98.5 rushing ypg.
QB Jeremiah Masoli (1,865 passing yards, 619 rushing yards, 26 total TDs, 4 INTs) paces a Ducks offense that ranks seventh in the nation in score (37.7 ppg) and 418.8 yards per game (231.4 rushing ypg, 5.5 per carry). The defense surrenders 22.7 points and 324 total yards per outing (130.6 rushing ypg).
The Beavers have covered in three Pac-10 games as a road underdog this season, including two outright upsets. They’re also on pointspread runs of 22-8 overall, 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 23-9 in Pac-10 action, 6-1 in December, 9-2 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup, 5-0 as a ‘dog of 3½ and 10 points, 4-0 against winning teams, 13-3 after a bye, 16-5 after an outright win and 48-19 after a spread-cover.
Oregon is riding positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 25-12 at home (5-0 last five), 8-2 in conference, 9-2 after a SU win, 8-1 after a bye, 5-2 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk and 7-3 against winning teams. The lone negative for the Ducks: They’ve failed to cover in four straight games on Thursday, including the season-opening loss at Boise State.
Oregon State carries “under” trends of 7-1 on the road, 9-1-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 9-3-1 after a bye. The under is also 4-0 in Oregon’s last four Thursday contests and 8-3-1 in its last 12 after a bye, but from there, the Ducks are on lengthy “over” runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference), 9-1-1 at home and 13-2-2 as a favorite.
Finally, each of the last seven meetings in this rivalry went over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas State (3-8, 2-8 ATS) at Western Kentucky (0-11, 5-6 ATS)
Western Kentucky tries one final time to get a victory in 2009 when it closes the season at home against the Red Wolves in a Sun Belt Conference clash.
Arkansas State snapped a four-game losing skid with Saturday’s 30-26 victory over North Texas, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite, its fifth ATS setback. It was the most points the Red Wolves had scored since a season-opening 61-0 win over Division I-AA Mississippi Valley State, as they had been held to 18 points or less (15.8 ppg) during their four-game losing streak.
The Hilltoppers have come up just short the last two weeks, losing on the road at Louisiana-Monroe (21-18) and Florida Atlantic (29-23). However, they easily covered as a double-digit favorite in both games and have now cashed in three in a row following an 0-4 ATS slump. Western Kentucky, which is giving up a whopping 41 points and 499 total yards per game this season, has lost 19 consecutive games overall, 25 straight to Division I-A opponents and 14 in a row to Sun Belt Conference foes. Head coach Dave Elson, who was fired on Nov. 9, will be on the Western Kentucky sidelines for the final time tonight.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
On top of its current 0-5 ATS slide, Arkansas State is in pointspread funks of 8-23 overall, 1-11 on the road, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-10 as a road chalk, 7-20 in Sun Belt play, 6-19-1 after a SU win, 0-4 on Thursday and 8-22 versus losing teams. The Hilltoppers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home ‘dog and 0-6 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing road record.
For the Red Wolves, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 9-4 when laying points, 5-1 as a road favorite and 15-5-1 on grass. The under is also 6-2 in Western Kentucky’s last eight as a home ‘dog and 11-5 in its last 16 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Boston (14-4, 8-10 ATS) at San Antonio (9-6, 8-7 ATS)
The surging Celtics go after their sixth straight win and fourth straight spread-cover when they continue a four-game road trip with a stop at the AT&T Center for a battle with the Spurs, who have also won five in a row.
Boston crushed Charlotte 108-90 as a four-point road favorite on Tuesday, topping the century mark for the sixth time in their last eight games, including the fourth time during their five-game win streak. The Celtics are averaging 107.2 points per game while shooting a blistering 51.6 percent from the field during their current five-game run. They allowed 106 ppg in the first three victories but have held the last two to 90 and 85 points. Also, Boston’s three straight spread-covers follow an 0-6 ATS slump.
Like Boston, San Antonio has ripped off five straight victories – four of them at home – by an average of 13.2 ppg (105-91.8). However, after cashing in four consecutive games, the Spurs came up short as a 12-point home chalk in their most recent contest, Sunday’s 97-89 win over the 76ers. San Antonio is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at the AT&T Center.
These teams split their season series last year, with the road team scoring an outright upset in each game. In fact, the visitor is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five. Boston, which has won three straight in San Antonio (all as an underdog), is on runs against the Spurs of 4-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. The underdog cashed in all six of those contests.
The Celtics are on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 14-5 against the Southwest Division, 14-6 in marquee Thursday matchups, 36-15-1 as an underdog, 46-19-1 as a road pup and 4-0-1 when catching less than five points. Conversely, San Antonio has failed to cover in five straight Thursday games and is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus Atlantic Division opponents and 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of less than five points. But otherwise the Spurs are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall and 7-3 at home.
The Celtics have topped the total in four of their last five overall, and the over is 14-5 in San Antonio’s last 19 at home and 4-1 in its last five when coming off three or more days’ rest. On the flip side, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Boston on Thursday, 5-2 for Boston against Western Conference foes and 5-2 for San Antonio overall. Lastly, three of the past four meetings in this series have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Miami (10-7, 8-9 ATS) at Denver (13-5, 10-8 ATS)
Fresh off an impressive victory in Portland, the Heat resume their four-game Western Conference road swing when they invade the Pepsi Center in hopes of sweeping the season series from the Nuggets.
Miami dropped consecutive home games over the weekend to Washington and Boston – scoring just 84 and 85 points – then went to Portland on Tuesday and found some offense, rolling to a 107-100 victory as a 6½-point road underdog. The Heat got outrebounded by the Trail Blazers 49-34 but shot 53.3 percent from the field as three players – Michael Beasley (27 points), Dwyane Wade (22) and Quentin Richardson (20) – all scored at least 20 points. Miami cashed for just the second time in its last 10 games.
Denver bounced back from Sunday’s stunning 106-100 home loss to Minnesota as a 14½-point favorite with Tuesday’s 135-107 rout of Golden State, easily covering as a 15-point home chalk. The Nuggets have won five of their last six games – scoring in triple digits in all six – while going 4-1 ATS. George Karl’s team is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on its home floor this season, though tonight marks the end of a four-game homestand for Denver, which embarks on a four-game road trip Saturday in San Antonio.
The Nuggets won their first five games of the season, then went to Miami on Nov. 6 and finally tasted defeat, falling 96-88 as a one-point road favorite. That also ended Denver’s eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) in this rivalry, but the Nuggets have still won and covered the last three meetings with the Heat at the Pepsi Center, cruising by scores of 108-97, 115-89 and 123-107. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head battles, the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes and Miami has failed to cover in four of its last five trips to the Mile High City.
In addition to their current 2-8 ATS nosedive, the Heat are in pointspread slumps of 3-10 on Thursday and 1-6 when playing after one day of rest. Denver has failed to cover in 13 of 19 against the Eastern Conference and four straight versus Southwest Division opponents, but otherwise the Nuggets are on positive ATS runs of 23-11 overall, 14-5 at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 on Thursday and 39-15-1 when favored by five to 10½ points.
Miami is on “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog) and 37-15-1 against the Northwest Division, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on Thursday. Meanwhile, Denver has topped the total in 12 of 15 on Thursday and 54 of its last 81 when favored by five to 10½ points. Finally, four of the last five Pepsi Center meetings between these squads have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
USC (2-2, 0-2-1 ATS) at (2) Texas (5-0, 4-1 ATS)
The unbeaten and second-ranked Longhorns welcome USC into the Frank Erwin Special Events Center in Austin for a non-conference matchup.
The Trojans have alternated wins and losses this season with all four of their games coming on their home court, including Sunday’s 51-48 loss to Nebraska as a 3½-point favorite. In their two wins this season, the Trojans averaged 75.5 points, but just 53.5 in their two losses.
Texas has scored at least 73 points in all five of its games, and the Longhorns went on the road Sunday and crushed Rice 77-59, but came a half-point short as an 18½-point road favorite, their first non-cover of the year. Texas is averaging 80.4 ppg this season and shooting a whopping 52 percent from the floor while holding the opposition to 32.8 percent shooting.
These teams squared off in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, with USC delivering an 87-68 beat-down as a 2½-point underdog.
The Trojans come in on ATS slides of 0-3-1 in non-conference action and 1-4 against Big 12 opponents, but they are on ATS upticks of 35-16 after a non-cover, 4-0 on Thursdays and 23-10 after a straight-up loss. Texas is on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 at home, 6-1 overall, 6-1 in non-conference action and 5-1 as a chalk.
For USC, the over is on runs of 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 after a non-cover and 6-1 on Thursdays. Texas has stayed “under” the total in five of six games after a non-cover, but the over is 5-2 in the Longhorns’ last seven overall and 4-1 in their last five after a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
DUNKEL
NY Jets at Buffalo
The Bills look to take advantage of a Jets team that is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite. Buffalo is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bills favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3)
Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.029; Buffalo 131.573
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over
NCAAF
Oregon State at Oregon
The Beavers look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Oregon State is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+9 1/2)
Game 303-304: Oregon State at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 102.351; Oregon 109.752
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Oregon by 9 1/2; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+9 1/2); Over
Game 305-306: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 70.240; Western Kentucky 61.443
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 9; 55
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 5 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-5 1/2); Over
NBA
Miami at Denver
The Heat look to take advantage of a Denver team that is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games against the Eastern Conference. Miami is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+9)
Game 701-702: Boston at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 123.192; San Antonio 126.279
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 183
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: Houston at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.915; Golden State 119.882
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 228 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Miami at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.318; Denver 121.725
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 9; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+9); Under
NCAAB
Washington at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Texas Tech is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3)
Game 707-708: Washington at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 68.949; Texas Tech 68.043
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1
Vegas Line: Washington by 3
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+3)
Game 709-710: Youngstown State at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 47.566; Detroit 56.550
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 9
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5)
Game 711-712: Princeton at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 48.518; Rutgers 59.561
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 11
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 8
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-8)
Game 713-714: Illinois-Chicago at WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 51.651; WI-Milwaukee 61.748
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 10
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 9
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-9)
Game 715-716: Loyola-Chicago at WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 50.127; WI-Green Bay 61.326
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 11
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 10
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-10)
Game 717-718: Cleveland State at Wright State
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 53.212; Wright State 66.773
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-11 1/2)
Game 719-720: USC at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: USC 60.921; Texas 81.905
Dunkel Line: Texas by 21
Vegas Line: Texas by 20
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-20)
Game 721-722: Idaho at CS-Northridge
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 53.779; CS-Northridge 58.725
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 5
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 1
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-1)
Game 723-724: Baylor at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.547; Arizona State 69.842
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+3 1/2)
Game 725-726: Eastern Kentucky at Murray State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.370; Murray State 59.039
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+9)
Game 727-728: Furman at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 43.178; Appalachian State 56.304
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 13
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-10)
Game 729-730: Davidson at The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 55.742; The Citadel 56.181
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Davidson by 1
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+1)
Game 731-732: Georgia Southern at College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 40.409; College of Charleston 50.270
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 10
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 11
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+11)
Game 733-734: Marist at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 41.364; Fairfield 55.695
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-13 1/2)
Game 735-736: Morehead State at Tennessee Martin
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 57.107; Tennessee Martin 48.182
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 9
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-5)
Game 737-738: SE Missouri State at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 40.248; Austin Peay 54.875
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+15 1/2)
Game 739-740: Eastern Illinois at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 46.536; Tennessee State 49.085
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (-1)
Game 741-742: Elon at Samford
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 41.025; Samford 55.844
Dunkel Line: Samford by 15
Vegas Line: Samford by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (-11 1/2)
NHL
Toronto at Columbus
The Maple Leafs look to take advantage of a Columbus team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall. Toronto is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155)
Game 51-52: Vancouver at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.547; Philadelphia 11.484
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+135); Over
Game 53-54: Edmonton at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.879; Detroit 11.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+210); Over
Game 55-56: Montreal at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.410; Buffalo 11.958
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-230); Over
Game 57-58: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.942; Washington 11.446
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 59-60: Toronto at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.848; Columbus 11.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Under
Game 61-62: NY Islanders at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.740; Atlanta 11.524
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+150); Over
Game 63-64: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.313; Pittsburgh 12.262
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Anaheim at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.388; Dallas 11.751
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-140); Under
Game 67-68: Calgary at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 13.027; Phoenix 12.742
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-125); Over
Game 69-70: St. Louis at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.951; San Jose 12.634
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-220); Under
Game 71-72: Ottawa at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.229; Los Angeles 12.775
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-140); Over
Marc Lawrence
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Houston Rockets
When the Rockets meet the Warriors in Oakland Thursday night they will do so knowing they are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Houston is also 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games on this court. With Golden State in off a 19-point win and the Rockets of a 28-point loss, we'll back Houston here tonight.
BIG AL
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Washington at Texas Tech
Prediction: Texas Tech
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Both the Huskies and Red Raiders come into this game with undefeated records: Washington is 5-0, while Tech is 7-0. Not surprisingly, each school has fattened its record by playing a bunch of cupcakes at home. This will be the first trip outside of Seattle for U-W, while Texas Tech has only ventured out of Lubbock for one game, and that was at Stephen F. Austin. The Huskies have not been playing great ball, notwithstanding their 5-0 record. Washington is 1-4 ATS and has shot under 43% in four of its five games. In its last time out -- a 4-point win over Montana (as a 19-point favorite), Washington shot just 30% from the field (20-for-65). In contrast, Texas Tech hit a season-high 54.7% of its shots in its most recent game, a 74-53 blowout of Samford. The Red Raiders fall into a great early-season college basketball system of mine that's 101-56 ATS since 1990 which plays on certain home teams off double-digit wins, and we'll grab the points with the home dog here.
Matt Fargo
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Baylor at Arizona St.
Prediction: Baylor
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Baylor had high expectations a season ago and a 15-3 start almost assured the Bears another trip to the NCAA Tournament. However, they stumbled with a six-game losing streak in conference action and finished the regular season on a 2-10 run. Now Baylor had no choice but to win the Big XII Tournament to get a big dance ticket and that it almost did. The Bears defeated Nebraska, Kansas and Texas in three straight days to make it to the conference tournament final but they simply ran out of gas in playing four games in four days and lost to Missouri. The run got them into the NIT and they took full advantage as they went all the way to the finals before losing to Penn St. in the championship game. While it was a good finish it was still disappointing but that run was hoping to carry over into this season and it has done just that. The Bears are off to a 6-1 start that includes solid wins over Iona and Xavier and a close loss against Alabama at the Old Spice Classic. The Bears lost a lot to graduation but talent is everywhere as they are led by guards LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter who is back following a four-game suspension to start the season. Those two form a solid and experienced backcourt. Down low, there were huge losses but the spots have been filled with newcomers who have been great. Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh is second in scoring with 15.4 ppg and is leading the team with 9.3 rpg. Center Josh Lomers and forward Anthony Jones fill out what is turning into a solid frontcourt. Arizona St. has its own losses to deal with as James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph, who accounted for 44 percent of the scoring, headed to the NBA. Only one double-digit scorer returned and overall three starters were lost. The Sun Devils are also off to a solid 6-1 start but the schedule has been light with a loss to Duke being the one marquee game. A win over LSU may look good but the Tigers are not much this season. Arizona St. is a deep team and the shooting has been solid but again, the schedule has had a lot to do with that. This should be a battle to the end so the generous points are a premium. 3* Baylor Bears
Johnny Banks
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Boston Celtics vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Under 186½
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Four of the Celtics last five road games against a team with a winning home record have gone under the total and four of the Spurs last five games have gone under the posted total when they have failed to cover the spread in their previous game. Look for both teams to slow the tempo of this game down Thursday night so take the Under as your free play for Thursday.
Jr Tips
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CELTICS at SPURS
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The San Antonio Spurs took advantage of an easy schedule to get on track after a poor start to the season but tonight they will have to host the Boston Celtics as both teams go for their sixth straight win.Tim Duncan has been a key factor during the current five-game winning streak averaging 20.6 points and 9.8 rebounds and leading his team in scoring in three of the wins. The Spurs beat the Sixers Sunday 97-89 and held the 76ers to 39.3 percent shooting giving up fewer than 90 points for the third time during their win streak. Manu Ginobili also returned Sunday after missing five games with a strained groin and finished with eight points and three turnovers in 17 minutes. Boston brings its own five-game winning streak into San Antonio as it continues a four-game road trip and coming off a 108-90 win over Charlotte on Tuesday behind Ray Allen's best performance of the season. Allen is averaging 15.2 points but finished with 27 points hitting five of his six 3-point attempts. Ray Allen's shooting touch adds another weapon to an offense averaging 107.2 points and shooting 51.6 percent over the winning streak while Paul Pierce has averaged 26.0 points in the first three games of the road trip. Boston and San Antonio split their two games last season with each winning on the other team's court and the Celtics have won three in a row at the AT&T Center. The Spurs have not beaten any quality opponents as three of the teams they defeated have losing records and the other two, Houston and Milwaukee have spent much of the season hovering around .500. The Celtics are simply the better team with many more weapons on offense and a lock down defense that can get a stop any time they need one. The Celtics always step up in statement games especially on the road and wil continue their winning streak at the AT&T center tonight.
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TAKE BOSTON +1.5
EZWINNERS
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New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Play: New York Jets -3
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This game is being played in Toronto, so there will be no home field advantage for the Bills. Both of these teams are coming off of wins, but both of these teams have been struggling. I expect the deciding factor to be the Jets running game that ranks second in the NFL against the Buffalo run defense that ranks 28th in the league. The Jets should be able to control the time of possession and cover this small number. Lay the points.
Karl Garrett
Oregon State at OREGON
Last year in the "Civil War", Oregon was able to light up the scoreboard for 65 points in a 65-38 win at Corvallis. That made it 7 straight in this series OVER the posted total, and the G-Man sees no reason why these teams won't head OVER the total for an 8th straight season.
The Beavers have put up 90 points in their last 2 games, and they have scored 30 points or more in 7 of their 11 games this year.
The Ducks' offensive numbers are even better, as Chip Kelly's team have been at 42 points or more in 5 straight games. In fact, Oregon has been at 42 points or better in 7 of their last 8 contests.
The weather forecast does not show any inclement elements on the horizon, so it should be full speed ahead for these 2 schools.
Take the OVER on Thursday night in Eugene.
5♦ OVER
Dominic Fazzini
Oregon State +10 at OREGON
Hit my complimentary selection Wednesday taking TCU on the road against SMU. That ups my record to 18-6 over the past 24 days, and I've got another victory on my plate today!
Never before has the Civil War meant so much in 112 previous meetings, with a Rose Bowl berth as the reward for the winner, so you can expect both teams' best effort tonight.
That said, I expect Oregon State to stay damn close to the rival Ducks all game and wouldn't be surprised at all if it came away with the victory.
While a lot of hype has surrounded Oregon's offense, many people seem to forget that the Beavers are quite potent themselves, averaging 32.4 points per game, which is 21st in the nation, and 422.2 yards (26th nationally, ahead of the Ducks' 418.8 yards, which is 31st).
Senior quarterback Sean Canfield gives OSU a big advantage in the passing game, having completed 70.3 percent of his throws for 2,797 yards and 19 touchdowns with just six interceptions.
And while the Ducks have a superior ground attack, led by outstanding freshman LaMichael James, the Beavers also possess a young star in their backfield in sophomore Jacquizz Rodgers, who has rushed for 1,313 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
The road team has won the last two games between these teams, with Oregon delivering a 65-38 beating last year. But OSU was missing Rodgers, who was out with a shoulder injury, and his brother, standout receiver James Rodgers, who leads the Beavers with 77 catches for 865 yards with eight TDs.
Oregon has scored more than 40 points in five straight games, but OSU has a stronger defense than the Ducks do, and has won four straight games (going 3-1 ATS) and six of its last seven (6-1 ATS). With the Beavers having not earned a trip to Pasadena since the 1964 season, I just think they have the added edge that will allow them to cover, if not win outright. Take Oregon State in this one.
4♦ OREGON STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Boston +2 at SAN ANTONIO
Improved to 19-9 with my last 28 FREE selections with Wednesday's winner on San Diego State, as the Aztecs got the job done against city rival USD. Tonight I've got a comp play on the Celtics as they are catching points in San Antonio.
Boston rolls into San Antonio for this one and I’ve got to back the Celtics who have won five straight and gotten the cash in three straight. Play Boston.
The Celtics demolished the Bobcats 108-90 on Tuesday and easily cashed as a four-point road chalk. They are back to scoring points, topping the 100-point mark for the sixth time in their last eight games. They are shooting 51.6 percent from the floor during this five-game winning streak and they’ve held the last two teams to 90 and 85 points.
The Spurs beat Philly 97-89 on Sunday but came up short as a 12-point home favorite. They are on ATS slides of 0-5 on Thursdays and 1-4 against the Atlantic Division.
Boston is on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-1 overall, 14-5 against the Southwest Division and 46-19-1 as a road ‘dog.
In this series, the visitor is on an ATS run of 4-1 in the last five meetings. Loving the way the Celtics are pushing the pace right now. Go ahead and grab the Celtics in this one. They are looking good.
4♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Miami at DENVER -9
For Thursday’s free play, I’ll head to the NBA and lay the points with the Nuggets at home against Miami.
This is a big payback game for Denver, which jumped out to a 5-0 start and then – in the midst of a brutal six-game East Coast road trip – went to South Beach and lost 96-88 to the Heat as a one-point road favorite. It was simply a case of the Nuggets running out of steam, and if you want proof, consider that the 88-point offensive output in Miami was Denver’s lowest of the season. Not only that, but the Nuggets have been held under 97 points just twice this year and held under 100 just four times.
Denver enters this game off of Tuesday’s 135-107 blowout win over the Warriors, improving to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last nine games. In those seven wins, the Nuggets averaged 119.3 points per game with an average margin of victory of – get this – 17.3 ppg, with six of the seven wins being by more than 12 points! Denver is also 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season.
Yes, the Heat are coming off a surprising 107-100 upset win in Portland on Tuesday, but they’re still just 4-6 in their last 10 games (2-8 ATS). And here’s the real kicker: Before catching Denver in a perfect spot at home a month ago, Dwyane Wade’s squad had lost eight straight games (2-6 ATS) to Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets, including four straight in Denver. The last three in Denver were complete mismatches, too, with the Nuggets rolling by 11, 26 and 16 points. Throw in the fact that Miami has to hop back on a plane tonight and play the Lakers in L.A. tomorrow – in what will be the Heat’s third road game in four nights – and this has double-digit rout written all over it.
3♦ DENVER
Stephen Nover
Davidson at THE CITADEL +1'
Put simply, I believe the better team is a 'dog at home.
Davidson is finding life hard in the post-Stephen Curry era. The Wildcats are 1-5 this season minus Curry, who has moved on to the Golden State Warriors.
Davidson is 1-6-1 against the spread the past eight times it has been a favorite.
I believe the oddsmaker still is overrating Davidson.
The Citadel has covered nine of the past 11 times it has been a home 'dog. The Bulldogs are a reliable cover team. They are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games, including 3-1 ATS this season.
3♦ THE CITADEL
Tony Weston
The Kings make easy work of the Pacers and come through with a solid Comp Play winner last night.
I’m giving you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking the Over in the Jets-Bills AFC East showdown in Toronto.
The Total for tonight’s game is hovering around 37 points, depending on where you’re playing this one. It won’t matter, though, as these two will go well Over that set Total.
The Jets come into tonight’s game having seen the Over go 3-1-1 their last 5 games. The Bills have gone Over the Total in 2 of their last 3 games.
For the season, the Jets have totaled, on average, 41.2 points per game away from home, while the Bills have totaled, on average, 41 points per game when set as the home team.
Also, in the last 9 meetings between these two when the Bills are playing host, the Over has gone 6-2-1.
These two will put up plenty of points again and cruise Over that Total.
3♦ JETS-BILLS OVER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Jets/Bills matchup UNDER the total. Aside from their 31-point performance last week, the Bills had been averaging just 12.3 PPG over their previous eight games. As for the Jets, HC Brian Schottenheimer has scaled back the offensive play book to help QB Mark Sanchez eliminate turnovers. He basically said they don't expect to score a lot of points, as evidenced by their 17-point output in Week 12 vs. the Panthers. The Jets want to run the ball 40 times if they can, winning the time of possession battle and keeping Buffalo's offense off the field. Meanwhile, the Bills want to feed the ball to both of their talented backs in an attempt to do the same thing. When the QBs are Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick, I can see why. The only thing that would kill the UNDER is if we see a ton of turnovers and those turnovers result in really good field position or returned for a TD. This game will go by quickly as the clock won't need to stop much on incomplete passes. The last time these two met, Buffalo beat the Jets in overtime, 16-13. I'm not sure if that's going to be the final score again or not, but I do know I don't expect either team to get to 20 points. Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.
4♦ UNDER