JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ROCKETS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
TAKE: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
A difficult situational handicapping spot for the Rockets, playing their 3rd road game in 5 nights. It's also the second of a back to back road spot, playing at the Clippers last night. That's even tougher on a Houston team that is shorthanded with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady out. The defense is a soft spot, allowing .477% shooting by opponents -- 6th worse in the NBA. Golden State's troubles all come on the road, as they have a winning record at home. The Warriors have an uptempo offense and love to run at tired opponents. In their last home game, they scored 126 points in a 19-point rout of road weary Indiana. An excellent spot for the rested home team. Play the Warriors
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +3 +1.04 over NY Jets
You can treat this one like a home game for the Bills, as it will be played in Toronto and busloads of people from Toronto have been going to see the Bills play in Buffalo for decades. They have a huge fan base north of the border because it’s only about 100 miles away. With that said, I can’t think of too many more things less unappealing than laying road points with the Jets on a short week. The Jets had dropped six of seven before last week’s unimpressive 17-6 win over Carolina. The Jets didn’t win that game, the Panthers lost it and that’s all there is to it. You can count on the Jets to make plenty of miscues and mistakes because that’s who they are. Mark Sanchez has been exposed as a very ordinary QB that will be forced into errors and allowing any team to stay in it. Despite some key injuries the Bills have looked a whole lot better under new coach Perry Fewell. In two weeks since taking over the head coaching reigns, the Bills lost in Jacksonville 18-15 and last week they crushed the Dolphins 31-14. The Bills are now 3-3 over its last six and that includes a win in New York, 16-13 and a win in Carolina by a score of 20-6, which incidentally makes the Jets win last week look even less impressive. The Bills defense (still coordinated by Fewell) is tough and in fact kept the Dolphins in check last week when they did not allow a run of more than 13 yards. The Jets play a similar style to that of the Dolphins in that they run first and pass when they need to. Rex Ryan is asking Sanchez to pass less and less these days because the rookie cannot be trusted. The Bills seem to have a renewed spirit about them playing for Fewell and frankly, there’s not a single team in the NFL that the Jets are worthy of laying road points against. Play: Buffalo +3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.05 over SAN ANTONIO
The best part about this is that the Spurs have reeled off five in a row to push its record to 9-6. That modest win streak has increased their stock, thus creating an absolutely beautiful opportunity here. A close look reveals that the Spurs last five victims has been Washington, Milwaukee, Golden State, Houston and Philly and all five of those teams are going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 or less when the season is over. The Spurs have had the luxury of an easy schedule that has seen them just three games against a top-10 team. They’ve played Dallas twice and the Blzers once and in those games they’re 1-2. The rest of the games they’ve played were all winnable, yet the Spurs are just 9-6 and now they’ll face the only team in the NBA that has a legit shot of beating the Lakers for the championship. The Celtics are wickedly good in every aspect of the game. They’re 7-1 on the road and they’re 14-4 overall. They, too, have reeled off five straight against some not-so-tough opposition but the difference is that the C’s are the class of the East and one of the top three teams in the league. The Spurs will take a huge step up in class tonight and play its toughest game of the year and frankly, they just have not proven a damn thing this season except that they can be beat. Play: Boston +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Anaheim +1.30 over DALLAS
The Ducks have played just nine road games (the lowest in the league) this season and they’re coming off a long, seven-game home stand. It would be safe to assume that they’re thrilled to get back on the road for a couple of games and even though they’ve lost two straight they’re looking a whole lot more dangerous these days. The Ducks are good; make no mistake about that. They can play the cycle and fore-check game as good as anyone. The problem is they sometimes do not show up but after seven home games and a two-game losing streak, one would expect a solid effort tonight. When the Ducks are right, they can beat anyone and come playoff time and if they make it, there are seven teams in the west that wouldn’t want to draw them in the first round. The Ducks have recent wins over both Calgary and Chicago, arguably two of the best and hottest teams in the league. The Stars have dropped three of four with only victory over that stretch being a 4-3 OT win over Tampa Bay. The Stars are a decent team but in no way are they worthy of this price over a Ducks team that is every bit as good as this host and very likely better. Nice spot and a great price on the Ducks. Play: Anaheim +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
362 - 252 run 59 %
Free Play Thurs Bills + 3,
==========================
recent past picks
WED SD State + 3 = Winner
Tues Prov +2 = Winner
8)
Rocketman
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Houston -1
Houston is 10-8 overall this year while Golden State comes in with a 6-11 record on the season. Houston is 21-5 SU at Golden State since 1996. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Rockets are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Rockets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Golden State. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Tom Freese
St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks
Prediction: Over
St Louis is 4-1 OVER their last 5 games overall and they are 52-25-5 their last 82 games after allowing 5 or more goals in their last game. The Blues are 11-3 OVER their last 14 December games and they are 11-3 OVER off a road loss by 2 or more goals. San Jose is 6-2 OVER their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 OVER when playing with one day of rest. The Sharks are 4-1 OVER off a win and they are 4-1 OVER after allowing 2 or less goals in their last game. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -8.5
Denver is 8-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 13.5 ppg. The Nuggets lost at Miami about a month ago in one of their worst performances of the season so they will be highly motivated to return the favor. Denver is a tough matchup for a Heat team that prefers to play in the half court, that's why it has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including both meetings at home during this span. In fact, Denver has won both of those home games by an average of 19 points while being favored by an average of just 5.5. Denver is 18-7 ATS revenging a same season loss over the last 2 seasons and we'll back the Nuggets in that situation here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Celtics/Spurs UNDER 187.5
Bottom Line: Boston is 19-5 Under in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. These games are averaging just 181.9 total points. Both teams come in riding five-game winning streaks, and I expect a defensive battle from a pair of teams that pride themselves on defense in what could be a Finals preview. Lastly, plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, in December games, are 47-15 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.
John Ryan
Washington U vs. Texas Tech
Play: Washington U -3
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as they take on Texas Tech as part of the Big-12/Pac-10 hardwood series. AiS shows a 65% probability that Washington will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 ATS for 70% winners since 1997. Play on a road team after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread and is undefeated on the season. AiS shows an 85% probability that Washington will have 45 or more total rebounds. Note that Washington is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they grab more than 45 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Washington.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -2
I'll take the 10-8 Rockets laying a small number against the 6-11 Warriors tonight. Golden State plays absolutely no defense and the Rockets are fully capable of running and gunning with them. In fact, Houston has been at its best when playing uptempo basketball this season. Houston is the much better defensive team, allowing 11.1 ppg less on the road than the Warriors do at home. And winning in Golden State is nothing new for the Rockets as they have won 21 of their last 26 games there. The Rockets are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS versus the Warriors over the last 3 seasons. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Rockets for 1 unit.
Wunderdog
Vancouver at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -130
The Flyers will be glad to get back home. They have been on the road for six out of seven, and have lost five of their last six. The Canucks have not been doing well on the road, where they have taken the money in just five of their last 13 games. The Canucks have done even worse playing without rest as they are now 3-8 in their last 11. The Flyers have been destroying teams that have a road winning percentage of .400 or less for years as they are 115-52-23 in their last 190 games. That says all you need to know to find the value is in this one, I'll grab the Flyers here.
Michael Cannon
Oregon State at OREGON
I’m on a 38-25-1 run with my last 64 overall free plays after my winner on Miami (Fla) last night!
Take the over tonight in the 113th edition of the Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon.
Both teams sport high-powered offenses. Oregon State averages 32.4 ppg while Oregon is putting up 35.6 ppg. The Ducks have scored at least 26 points in every game this season.
Last year the Ducks destroyed the Beavers 65-38 in Corvallis. The teams combined for 1,157 yards of offense and it was the most points Oregon State ever surrendered in a game.
Oregon is on over streaks of 5-0 overall, 9-1-1 at home and 13-2-2 as a chalk.
Take the over as this one soars past the posted total.
3♦ OVER
Chris Jordan
Arkansas State -6 at W. KENTUCKY
The Los Angeles Times has a weekly poll of its own - the Bottom 10 College Football teams in the nation, and Western Kentucky is in the hunt along with Eastern Michigan.
Far be it for me to ignore such a thing or think there's anything standing in the way of the Hilltoppers being the worst team in Division I football.
I know the Red Wolves have a sub-.500 record, having won only three games this season, but this team has tangled with foes from the Big 12 and Big East, it has a defense ranked in the upper half of college football's Football Bowl Subdivision and it's coming into this one off a 30-26 win over North Texas - a game in which it dominated and was up 30-14 at one point. Chalk up the garbage time scoring for the final margin.
Western Kentucky is horrendous all-around, other than having the 36th-ranked rushing offense - and incidentally, the Red Wolves rank 35th in the nation in stopping the rush. But other than the run, the Hilltoppers are near or at the bottom of every major statistical category.
Arkansas State will look like Arkansas in this one, as it wins by double digits with no problem.
2♦ ARKANSAS STATE
Drew Gordon
Houston at GOLDEN STATE +1'
15-7 roll L22 Free Plays, incl. Miami-Fl over Minnesota last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Rockets/Warriors match up.
I know a lot of people looked at this line and immediately began scratching their heads... Why are the 10-8 Rockets, winners of 2 straight road games, only a slight favorite over a 6-11 Warriors team? The answer is simple, and the best way to explain it is to look at their last meeting. Back in late-October, the Rockets eeked out a 108-107 win at Golden St, in a game where both teams played little defense. More of the same tonight.
You see, these smallish teams have adapted their style of play to best suit their personnel, using a run-and-gun style that favors offense over defense. In that, we have two teams here that are content to let the opponent shoot 47% or higher (Rockets allowing 47.6 %, Warriors allowing 50%). That being said, you can see why the Rockets will have so much trouble with this feist Warriors team (that happens to be 4-3 SUATS at home), as Ellis will run his Golden St. team up-and-down the floor versus Aaron Brooks all night long!
Finally, when discussing two teams that love to run, fatigue becomes more of a critical factor. Right away, the fact that Houston played last night is a red flag, as they'll have trouble keeping their focus against a better rested Warriors bunch. Warriors are averaging 112 ppg at home thus far, and if you're not going to try and stop them... Then how does a tired Rockets team keep pace? They don't, plain and simple.
Take Golden State plus the points over Houston in this NBA match up.
1♦ GOLDEN STATE
Scott Delaney
Davidson at The Citadel
Yeah, I know the Wildcats have a target on their backs. After all, they've been the darlings of the NCAA the past two seasons with Stephen Curry wearing the glass slipper and playing the role perfectly.
But he's gone, and Davidson is in a down year. Haven't you heard? It's 1-5 thus far this season.
The Wildcats have lost to Butler, South Florida, La Salle, Penn State and Rhode Island. They beat SUNY-Fredonia.
So why take them tonight?
Because this is still a conference game, and while the 'Cats aren't exactly the Southern Conference they've been over the past couple years, I don't believe The Citadel has enough to outduel what is still a dangerous team - even without Curry.
Look at Davidson's losses - quality.
Look at Citadel's (5-3) wins: Kenyon College, Eastern Michigan, Maryland-Eastern, Virginia Wise Highland, Central Connecticut State - not quality.
You look at a line and you see a 1-5 team on the road laying a point to a team that is 5-3 in the conference opener ... makes you wonder why that road team is favored, right?
Not me! The play here is on Davidson.
5♦ DAVIDSON
SPORTS WAGERS
Youngstown State/DETROIT under 133
This is just a bad line. Detroit might have a good record, but has struggled offensively, shooting 29% from three, 68% from the line, and turning the ball over on 22% of their possessions. Youngstown State is 3-3 with two of their wins coming against Division II opponents, which makes their putrid offensive numbers look much worse when factoring in the competition. Youngstown State shoots 26% from three, 43% from two, and 62.2% from the line, making it very difficult for them to consistently cash over bets. The other outlier that jumps out is the fact the both Detroit and Youngstown State have been unfortunate in allowing opponents to shoot high free-throw percentages against them, with opponents checking in at 74%, a fluky number that swings precious points when making total wagers. Neither of these teams have players that average more than three assists per game and even with both teams playing at slightly above average paces, it’s going to be awfully challenging for them to reach 133. Play: Youngstown St./Detroit under 133 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).