Freddy Wills
Arkansas State vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Arkansas State -6.5
This is a dangerous team for Arkansas State playing a team that has yet to win a game all season and in their home building. However, with that said Arkansas has been a major disapointment this year picked to finish second behind only Troy this year they went 3-8 in what was a very tough schedule. They will take that out on Western Kentucky team that is in it's first year in the FBS ranks. It's been a tough one as they rank 98th in total offense and 118th in total defense and if they can't run they don't have much on offense at all. Arkansas State has the 25th ranked rush defense and is ranked 51st in scoring defense while Western Kentucky ranks 104th in scoring offense and 119th in scoring defense. Points will be there for Arkansas State while they won't be fore Western Kentucky. Only reason why this is not a POD type play is because I believe teams come up with crazy games when they aren't supposed to. What impresses me more than that is Arkansas State feels they need this game to as they are 0-6 on the road. But they did play @ Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Louisville this year. Heck they only lost to Iowa by 3 points.
LT Profits
Princeton vs Rutgers
While we realize that the Big East is infinitely better than the Ivy League, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a lower tier Big East team while the Princeton Tigers should compete for the Ivy League championship, and they have been toughened by a stronger early seasons schedule.
The Tigers return all five starters from the team that finished second in the Ivy last season, and while they have lost three straight games after a 2-0 start, they were huge underdogs vs. California and George Washington, and they managed to push the 21-point spread vs. a ranked Cal team. They are now facing a team that is more in their element, and they are playing with quadruple revenge after weaker Tiger teams lost to Rutgers each of the last four seasons.
The talent level is much closer this time around, and just as the 2-3 Princeton record is deceptive because of their schedule, the same can be said about the Scarlet Knights 3-2 mark, only for the opposite reason. The Knig8hts have yet to post a true quality win, as their wins came vs. Marist, Drexel and Massachusetts, game in which Rutgers was favored each time.
Despite that soft slate, Rutgers is still just 1-4 against the spread, and they have actually been outscored by -0.8 points per game. That does not exactly instill confidence in a decided favorite like this, so look for Princeton to stay close in this in-state rivalry.
Pick: Princeton +8.5
Jack Jones
Washington U vs. Texas Tech
Pick: Washington -1
Texas Tech is certainly improved this season with their 7-0 start, but when looking at their schedule I find that they really haven't played anybody. Their toughest game came at home against Oregon State, where they won 64-60 as a 9-point favorite, so that win wasn't all that impressive. Other teams on their schedule thus far include South Dakota, Texas A&M CC, Northwestern State, Lamar, SF Austin State and Samford. Like I said, no juggernauts in there whatsoever. The Washington Huskies are year in and year out, one of the best teams in the country. The Huskies have gone 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. This team is also undefeated at 5-0, and though their schedule hasn't been tough either, I strongly feel they are the better team in this match-up. Texas Tech is 18-34 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997. The Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Washington.
Alex Grosse
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Over 209½
The Nuggets have been lighting up the scoreboard all season long, averaging 110.6 points per game and ranking first in the league. Denver's offense has been hot as of late, averaging 117.6 points in its last 5 overall. On the other side of the equation, the Nuggets rank 22nd defensively in terms on points, allowing an average of 102.9 points to the opposition. This works heavily in our favor as Miami has not been one of the strongest offensive teams this season. There are several hot trends that favor the OVER in this one. OVER is 6-2 in Miami's last 8 overall and 37-15-1 in Miami's last 53 versus teams from the Northwest division. OVER is 54-26-1 in Denver's last 82 games as a 5 to 10.5 point home favorite and 8-3 in Denver's last 11 as a 5 to 10.5 favorite. OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take a chance on the OVER.