Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 5

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

West Virginia at Missouri
The Tigers play host tonight to a West Virginia team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games versus SEC opponents. Missouri is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-5 1/2)

Game 507-508: TCU at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 51.472; Mississippi State 54.896
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7 1/2)

Game 509-510: West Virginia at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 60.402; Missouri 71.591
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 11
Vegas Line: Missouri by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-5 1/2)

Game 511-512: Providence at Rhode Island (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 60.908; Rhode Island 56.294
Dunkel Line: Providence by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 7
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+7)

Game 513-514: Dartmouth at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 50.768; Northern Illinois 45.825
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 5
Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (-1 1/2)

Game 515-516: Marshall at Vanderbilt (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 55.002; Vanderbilt 63.818
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 9
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 11
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+11)

Game 517-518: Mississippi at Kansas State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 63.523; Kansas State 68.033
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-2)

Game 519-520: San Diego State at San Diego (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 65.784; San Diego 60.805
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8)

Game 521-522: Eastern Kentucky at VCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 52.786; VCU 70.692
Dunkel Line: VCU by 18
Vegas Line: VCU by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-15 1/2)

Game 523-524: Rider at Monmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.360; Monmouth 46.001
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-2 1/2)

Game 525-526: South Dakota at Air Force (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 45.537; Air Force 56.156
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Air Force by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-2 1/2)

Game 531-532: LIU-Brooklyn at Seton Hall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LIU-Brooklyn 48.703; Seton Hall 57.601
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 9
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (+13 1/2)

Game 533-534: High Point at Georgetown (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 46.757; Georgetown 72.022
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 19
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-19)

Jim Feist

Miami vs. Chicago
Play: Under 189

Miami can play any style, 5th in the NBA in points allowed, so Chicago will dictate the pace: a slow, defensive style. The under is 30-12-1 in the Bulls last 43 vs. NBA the Southeast. Miami's shooting percentage is so impressive partially thanks to LeBron James, who is shooting 59.8 percent from the field -- by far the best mark of any forward in the league. Chicago is not going to try and get into a running match and teh Bulls play dominant defense for this coach, 2nd in the NBA in rebounds, 4th in points allowed. Miami's win streak has been keyed by defense, on a 4-1 run under the total, plus the under is 5-2 in the Heat's last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference and the under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

MADDUX FREEBIE

NCAA FB
Louisville/Cincinnati - UNDER 50.5

Brandon Shively

Eastern Kentucky +15½

Eastern Kentucky is a team that returns 4 starters from last year's team and runs a 4 guard lineup that is fit to beat the press of VCU. They take care of the ball with a positive assist:turnover ratio. They are also feisty on the defensive side with 8.7 steals a game. I like this Eastern Kentucky team as they have shooters at every position. They are making 8 3 pointers a game and are shooting 76% from the foul line. While one might think that VCU has the better 3 point shooters, they are only making six 3 pointers a game. They are also struggling from the foul line at 67% and Eastern Kentucky has a deep team that will use their fouls if needed and that makes this double digit spread even more appetizing. Look for the guard heavy team of Eastern Kentucky to take care of the ball, knock down jumpers, and when the free throw shooting contest and keep this game within a 9-12 point range.

Trends:

Eastern Kentucky is 4-0 ATS their last 4 vs. the Atlantic 10.
VCU is 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games.

Rob Vinciletti

Dartmouth vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Dartmouth -1½

Dartmouth has won 3 straight and looks to be improved from last season. Tonight they travel onto Northern Illinois to take on a Huskies team that is 2-4 with the 2 wins coming against marginal teams as they still remain mediocre. Dartmouth has the 25th ranked scoring team in the country and a surprising 12th ranked road defense. They have won and cover their only 2 recent games as a road favorite of 3 or less. North Illinois is ranked 273rd in the nation in home scoring and have lost and failed to cover all 4 times as a home dog of 3 or less. When taking on winning teams these Huskies have no bite losing 23 of 26 overall. They have struggled vs non conference teams losing 27 of the last 32. Look for Dartmouth to get the win here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Ray Monohan

West Virginia vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -5½

The Mizzou campus is buzzing with excitement as the footballers are playing in the SEC title game. Still there will be enough of a buzz on campus on the hardwood as the undefeated Tigers welcome West Virginia. The Mountaineers have fallen to the only teams with a pulse on their early schedule Mizzou has not been playing a great schedule but they have been getting it done and their style can be lethal if you are not ready for it. The Tigers should win by 10 or more.

Justin Bay

Senators vs. Lightning
Play: Over 5½

Ottawa Senators
- 7-5-2 record on the road
- Average 3.36 goals per game on the road
- Allow 3.07 goals per game on the road
- 26.92% on Power Play
- 73.02% on Penalty Kill

Tampa Bay Lightning
- 10-3 record @ home
- Average 3.85 goals per game @ home
- Allow 2.38 goals per game @ home
- 21.57% on Power Play
- 83.67% on Penalty Kill

South Dakota vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force -2½

South Dakota
- Average 58.6 PPG
- Allow 66.4 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 98.2

Air Force
- Average 68 PPG
- Allow 75.2 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 95.16

**According to our system, Air Force should win by about ten points**

Doug Upstone

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Minnesota Wild +115

Something has to give here Thursday night as Chicago visits Minnesota. Chicago's road record mirrors that of Minnesota's home record so this one figures to be a good one. Josh Harding had his third shutout of the season Tuesday night for the Wild, tops in the NHL. Two great teams, take the home ice and the underdog with Minnesota.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Houston -3 Over JACKSONVILLE: Despite the fact that these teams are going in opposite directions, I still feel the play is Houston here. The Texans already lost to the Jags once this year and the last thing they want is to get swept by what has been the worst team in the league this year. Houston last week showed they still have heart in the close loss to the Patriots. Their offense is still far better that that of the Jags and their defense is one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd overall and 2nd vs the pass.Yes Foster is out but Ben Tate is very capable of going up against this porous rush defense. Houston has not given up on the season, despite the fact that they will not make the Playoffs and I expect them to put up a fight here in order to break their 10 game losing steak. This is not a good spot for the Jags.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over HoustonFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The wrong team is getting points here. Believe it or not, the Jags are the better team right now. Not only has Jacksonville gone from the lone winless team in the league to ripping off three wins in the last four weeks, but when these two doormats squared off in Houston two weeks ago it was a dead even game. The Jags came away with the road victory and now they’re catching over a field goal at home? Jacksonville has also been good this year when facing fellow losing teams, going 2-1 ATS while the Texans have gone 0-3 in that scenario. With a home game on national television, Jacksonville is treating this one like a playoff game, while the Texans are ready to cash in their chips for the season after putting forth an all-out effort last week at home against New England, only to cough up a 10-point lead and drop their 10th straight game. Take the home dog.

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Houston at JacksonvilleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 43FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jaguars and Texans met two weeks ago and scored just 19 points total. Look for the Texans to open things up more on Thursday night as this one goes over the total with ease. The Jaguars have gone over the total in 6 of their last 8 games and will once again Thursday.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN
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SAN DIEGO STATE VS SAN DIEGO
PLAY: SAN DIEGO STATE -7.5
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It’s the battle of San Diego tonight at Jenny Craig Pavilion. Both San Diego State and San Diego are off to solid starts, and you can bet your bottom dollar the Toreros would love to knock off the nationally ranked Aztecs.
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SDSU is now 5-1 and moved into the AP Top 25 following the Wooden Legacy Tournament win last weekend. Xavier Thames has really stepped forward for the Aztecs, as the senior guard is off back to back career highs against Creighton and Marquette. Winston Shepard is clearly improved this season. JJ O’Brien is a study in efficiency in the paint. Transfer Josh Davis has been in a bit of a shooting slump, but is going to be an asset. Freshman Matt Shrigley is already a serious long range weapon off the bench.
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In other words, watch out for this team. San Diego State was supposed to take a step or two backward this season after losing Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley. I pegged them for third place in the MWC, but the more I see of the Aztecs, the more I think I might have sold them a little short.
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San Diego is off to a 7-2 start to the season, and the Toreros have a nice starting five. Johnny Dee is very explosive. Duda Sanadze has already shown he’s going to be very solid addition to this team. Big man Dennis Kramer is not a star, but he and Jito Kok are proving valuable on the inside. Diminutive point guard is rolling up the assists while averaging double figures.
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The Toreros don’t have much depth, however,m and that liability will apparently be further compromised tonight as sixth man Thomas Jacobs is likely out with an ankle injury. That very thin USD bench could be a huge factor in this game.
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There isn’t any question this is a big game for San Diego. The Toreros have not beaten the Aztecs in several years, and it would obviously be a really huge deal if they could do so tonight. But the track record in intracity rivalry indicates that the Aztecs don’t just treat it as an automatic win. That’s very meaningful in a matchup of this type.
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I can definitely see USD hanging tough in this game for at least the first half, maybe longer than that. But the deeper and more talented Aztecs seem likely to eventually start pulling away, and if the refs are calling things tightly with the new rules, that’s probably bad news for the Toreros. For San Diego to have any realistic shot at the upset, they have to max out the minutes from their starting five.
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I like finding ways to back the underdog in games such as this. But the more I break it down, the more I see advantages for the favorite. Thus, with the number where it is, I’m compelled to side with San Diego State to eventually take command while emerging with the win and cover.

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Memphis vs ConnecticutFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ConnecticutFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After a 0-9 start to the season Connecticut has delivered back-to-back wins and the Huskies have been very solid in the home underdog role in the young history of the program at the FBS level. Huskies’ HC Paul Pasqualoni doesn’t have a vintage team, but the school has a history of winning consistently at Rentschler Field, where they are 47-23 SU the last 11 seasons and have compiled an 18-4 point spread mark as a home dog. We love Connecticut in this spot and at a pick we just cant pass it up.

Mid-Major MattFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State at San DiegoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick San Diego +7.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It's a huge game as San Diego hosts 25th ranked San Diego State. The Aztecs enter this one 5-1, winners of four straight games. They are playing their first true road game of the season against the Toreros. Xavier Thames leads the way for them putting up 17.2 points per game. JJ O'Brien and Winston Shepard also score at least 10 points per game. The home team is 7-2 on the year and is coming off a seven point loss at the Pit against New Mexico. This is a dangerous team with four players who score at least 10 points per game. They are led by Johnny Dee and his 17.6 ppg. San Diego has competed on the boards against the Aztecs the last two years as they've only been outrebounded by four combined. The Toreros have covered in 23 of their last 39 games as an underdog. They won't be afraid of the Aztecs and should make things difficult for them.