Jimmy Boyd
South Dakota +3½
Air Force is a bad team, and they will continue to struggle in the first half of the season until they get more experience as a team. The Falcons return just one starter from last year, and they face a South Dakota team that is loaded with experience. The Coyotes have four starters making their return. South Dakota got off to a slow start losing three straight on the road, but I won't hold that against them since those three teams have a combined record of 15-7 this year. The Coyotes have also won three straight games coming into this matchup.
The Falcons have lost two straight coming into this game, with both losses coming by over 20 points. Their three wins on the season have come against very soft teams whose combined record is 5-16 this year. Air Force is 5-12 against the spread when coming off a straight up loss of more than 20 points. The Falcons lack size which has caused them to lose out on a lot of rebounds. South Dakota is 11-3 against the spread in road games against teams averaging 33 or less rebounds per game.
Steve Rich
Houston Texans -3½
The Houston Texans head east to play the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football airing on the NFL Network at 8:25 ET. This game is typical of most Thursday night games we’ve endured this season. Houston was the defending AFC South Champs and was supposed to make a run at the Super Bowl this year. Well, after losing eight games in a row that is obviously not the case. Jacksonville is the team everyone thought they would be, no quarterback, they are however trying to win three games in a row for the first time since 2010.
The Texans now own the worst record in the NFL. They rank 29th in points scored and 27th in points allowed, all this with a 2nd ranked defense in overall yardage. They rank 10th in offensive yards. This lack of scoring and the number of points allowed on defense is a direct result of turnovers. They have a total of 21 turnovers with a -12 TO margin. That is next to last in the NFL.
The Jags defeated Houston 13-6 in Houston two weeks ago. They are last in the league in rushing and scoring. Their defense hasn’t fared much better. Jacksonville allows 29 points per game. They need to start losing if they want a shot at Johnny Football!
I am going with the revenge factor here, surely with the athletes Houston has they can step up and whip the Jags. However, a word to the wise, I’ve thought that before on the Texans this year and it hasn’t worked out that well. I am going to take a small lean on the Houston Texans to cover the spread in this game. They have to beat the hell out of somebody sooner or later right?
Steve Janus
Ole Miss +2½
The Rebels have opened up the 2013-14 season right where they left off last year. Mississippi, who won the SEC Tournament and advanced to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament is off to a 6-0 start and should not be catching points against a Kansas State team that has a home loss to Northern Colorado, along with a 7-point defeat to Charlotte and 27-point thrashing at the hands of Georgetown. Ole Miss is led by senior Marshall Henderson, who led the SEC in scoring last year at 20.1 ppg. While he comes in averaging just 15.2 ppg, he's getting a lot of help from guards Jarvis Summers and Derrick Millinghaus. The trio comes in averaging just over 46 ppg and both Summers and Henderson are shooting over 40% from behind the arc. Kansas State simply doesn't have the scoring or the guards to match up in this one, as they are really missing last year's backcourt duo of Rodney McGruder (15.6 ppg) and Angel Rodriguez (11.5 ppg & 5.2 apg). The Rebels are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 games when listed as a road underdog and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games overall when listed as the underdog.
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Houston -3½ over JACKSONVILLEFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Proving the adage that there's no better deodorant that winning, the Jaguars have erased most of the negative feedback of their 0-8 start over the past month and seem to have a new energy about them. With three wins in four games including back-to-back road wins, the Jags are no longer the laughing stock of the NFL. That honor goes to the Houston Texans, who have the least amount of wins in the league (2) and have lost 10 straight. Combine the two and we have the Jaguars stock up and the Texans stock sinker lower, thus creating this cheap price on the visitor. Now, we’re usually not in favor of spotting road points, especially in a prime time games but we’ll confidently make an exception here. You see, the Jaguars are pure garbage. They have yet to win a game at home all season and their five home losses were by 26, 34, 18, 32 and 13 points, respectively. Don’t be fooled by the Jags recent run of success, as they won three of their past four games because the opposition figured all they had to do was show up. The Texans won’t have that mindset. No way.
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Houston’s dignity is on the line here. This was a team that many figured a lock to make the playoffs with a true chance of winning it all. The Texans won their first two games and subsequently have dropped 10 straight. One of those losses occurred just two weeks ago when these same Jags went into Houston and defeated the Texans 13-6. Under the best of circumstances, it’s difficult for teams of equal talent to defeat the same team twice in a year. Thing is, these two aren’t equal. Now the inferior team will attempt to defeat the superior one twice in three weeks. A close look shows the Texans could easily be on a 6-0 run right now after a 1-point loss to KC, a 3-point loss to Indy, a three-point loss to Arizona, a five-point loss to Oakland, a 7-point loss to Jacksonville and a four point loss last week to New England. The Texans also have a 3-point loss to Seattle earlier in the year. So while the Jags were getting smoked by every team in the league and we do mean smoked, the Texans have been really unlucky without a single bounce going their way in the crucial final few minutes of any of those games. It should be noted that in last week’s four-point loss to the Patriots, New England was not flagged for even one penalty. How is that possible in this day and age of flag happy refs? That just further details the bad luck surrounding the Texans. Teams that play great defense do not lose 10 in a row and the Texans defense is ranked #3 in the NFL behind Carolina and Seattle. Combined, that pair is 20-4. What we also like here is that Case Keenum is a gamer. He hates to lose and injects energy into the entire team. Houston is not this bad and will prove so in their final prime time game of the year. Losing to the Jags twice in three weeks is not an option and what we expect to see from the superior Texans is 10 weeks of frustration being taken out on this wretched host.
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Dallas +100 over TORONTOFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. After a horrible first period on Tuesday against the Sharks in which the Maple Leafs looked they were going to get clobbered, the Leafs responded well and actually played one of their better games in some time over the final two periods. Still, Toronto lost 4-2 and have now dropped five in a row and six of their last seven games. Toronto’s only win over that span came against the Capitals in a game that Washington outshot Toronto 50-28. The Leafs will eventually win a game but with each passing loss, winning becomes more difficult and the Leafs figure to have more difficulty here with the Stars in town. Without trying to sound redundant, we’ve proven over and over that there’s a huge correlation between winning/losing and shots for and against. In that regard, Toronto keeps getting badly outshot every game and until that changes the Leafs fortunes will not.
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Dallas is coming on fast. This is a team with a great GM and a great coach that is quickly building a contender. Without Tyler Seguin in the line-up, the Stars recently took three out of a possible four points from Chicago. Dallas has picked up points in seven of their past nine games and everything is pointing to Seguin returning here. The Stars are loaded down the middle, which is a huge edge over the Maple Leafs, who are thin in that department. Jamie Benn, their new captain is a huge body with a massive shot that is nearly impossible to contain. They’ve got proven offensive talent to go along with one of the Calder Trophy front-runners in Valeri Nichushkin. That kid is going to be a legit star in this league. All that talent plays in front of one of the league’s best goalies in Kari Lehtonen, who has the luxury of playing behind breakout experts Sergei Gonchar and Alex Goligoski. That kind of skill means less turnovers, less time in your own zone. The Stars have the talent to change the balance of power in the West and with their first visit to Toronto since 2010, that talent should be on full display here against an extremely fragile group. Wrong side favored.
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Ottawa +108 over TAMPA BAYFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Lightning are losing bodies quicker than a Quentin Tarantino movie and it’s beginning to take a toll. As many as eight regulars could be out again tonight. Tampa has lost six of their past eight games. They have been shutout in back-to-back games and have scored one lousy goal over their past four losses. When the puck isn’t going in, players start pressing, much like a hitter in baseball that is in a severe batting slump. It doesn’t get easier to score, it gets harder. The Lightning have little appeal as the chalk and if the Senators show up here and play like they’re capable of, this ticket will have a greater than 50% chance of cashing.
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Perhaps the Senators have woken up. One of the year’s biggest underachievers, Ottawa has badly outshot the opposition in four straight games. That’s something they hadn’t accomplished all season up until now. The Sens are also the healthiest team in the NHL with no injuries whatsoever. The Sens are scoring goals but with just three wins over their past nine games to go along with an overall record of under .500, they remain an undervalued group. If they get good goaltending from Craig Anderson (Robin Lehner is almost always good), the Senators are primed to shoot up the standings. This team is too talented to keep losing at this pace and now the signs are there that suggest the Senators are about to peak. The Sens are on our radar once again because of the great profit potential in backing them. Overlay.
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San Jose/PITTSBURGH Over 5½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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First, we don’t like Marc Andre Fleury. Secondly, we don’t like Antti Niemi. Both these goaltenders are average at best and that’s not just an opinion. Both goaltenders have an identical .917 save percentage, which ranks them below 18 other goaltenders this season. Expecting either one of these goalies to perform above average here would be unreasonable when you consider that both these offenses are in peak form.
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The Penguins have scored 17 goals over their past four games and their leader, Sidney Crosby is on fire. Three of those four games were on the road. The Penguins have only played five home games over their past 16 games and have scored 19 goals over those five home games. Meanwhile, the Sharkies have scored 24 goals over their past six games. Over that span they netted six on the Blues, four on both the Ducks and Maple Leafs and five on the Bolts. Furthermore, San Jose leads the NHL in scoring chances and shots on net per game and they figure to get plenty more opportunities here against the below average defense of the Penguins. With so many snipers and playmakers on the ice in good form here against two very average goalies, this one does not figure to be a defensive battle.
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Pass NBA, CBB, & CFBFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Sam MartinFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Jacksonville JaguarsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Apparently beating the Texans by a touchdown while holding Houston to just six points scored on 218 total yards wasn't enough to make an impression on the linesmakers, as Jacksonville's outright win and cover as a 10.5-point road dog was overlooked as Houston lines up as a 3.5-point road favorite tonight in the rematch. That's the equivalent of a one-point difference in the pointspread (assuming both teams receive three points for home field advantage), and we'll take the points with Jacksonville here. Houston has now lost 10 straight and are in prime position to snatch the #1 pick in next year's NFL draft, while the Jags are starting to build momentum with three outright upset wins in their last four weeks, including two straight.
Tony George
Cincinnati +3
Thursday Night College Football action in Cincinnati as the Bearcats take on Louisville in a marquee matchup game on ESPN. The Bearcats are on fire winning 6 in a row, and powered by a stellar offensive line and a rock star performance all season by QB Brandon Kay. Interesting because the other star on the field tonight is QB Teddy Bridgewater for Louisville. This is a big game tonight.
While everyone and their dog is predicting how high up the draft board Bridgewater is going to go, he has other issues in the short term, and that is facing a Cincy defense that since yielding 45 points at Illinois in an ugly early loss, has stepped up and dominated games allowing just 15 ppg, and they also shut down the run game and rush the passer very well. Interesting that Bridgewater has 25 TD passes this year but only 7 on the road, and the Cards are usually over valued on the line, which explains their 1-6 ATS mark on the road.
At days end in ANY College football game, one who handicaps clearly understands 2 things, you are betting a number and not a game, and the battle on the field is not ruled by superstars, but by the guys in the trenches, especially in big games. That favors the home team big time here, who by the way have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series. Neither team has faced a tough schedule and both lost to teams they shouldn’t have, so I call this damn near even, a battle of field position and two pretty good defenses.
I like the beef up front on both sides of the ball for Cincy, I like the home field, I like Tubberville and the job he has done at Cincy this year, and I like their QB Kay who has the ability to trade punches with Bridgewater through the air, as he has had back to back 400 yard games through the air, protected by a great offensive line. Whole world likes Louisville on the short number with BCS Bowl implications on the line with a win and a Central Florida loss, but I sniff a barking dog here. Contrarian play here, but I lean Bearcats at home in a thriller (last year was an OT game) to get it done and close out the seniors with a winning send off at home tonight against a rival.
Dave Price
Miami Heat -5
Recent history shows nothing motivates the Miami Heat like a loss at home. Consider that Miami is 8-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 105.8 to 83.1 in these games. In addition, the Heat are 19-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 102.5 to 92.6. Lay the points with a motivated Miami team against the struggling Bulls.
Jack Jones
Miami Heat -5
The Miami Heat will come into this game against Chicago focused following its first loss over the past 12 games. This is a very generous price to be getting the Heat at considering the disarray that the Bulls are in right now.
Chicago is without two of its best players in Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. It simply doesn't have the talent to make up for these two, and that has shown of late. The Bulls are 1-6 in their last seven games overall, which includes losses to the lowly Jazz and Cavaliers.
The loss of Butler is absolutely huge in this one because he could match up with Dwyane Wade while Luol Deng could go against Lebron James. The Bulls defended these two about as well as anyone in the league because of having Butler, but without him look for Wade to have his way with whoever he is matched up against.
Miami is 19-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the past two seasons. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 ATS off a home loss over the past two seasons. They are coming back to win 105.8 to 83.1 in this spot, or by an average of 22.7 points per game. Bet the Heat Thursday.
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Miami Heat at Chicago BullsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami HeatFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Not quite the same vibe to this featured TNT matchup with Derrick Rose being available. But before completely dismissing the Rose-less Bulls, remember that they did score a few memorable wins minus their star guard against the champs last season, including snapping Miami’s 27-game win streak with an upset verdict at United Center. But Chicago also minus the improving Jimmy Butler (out indefinitely with a toe injury), so unless oddsmakers really inflate, can’t see where Chicago is going to find the scoring punch to keep pace. Miami should also be in a nasty mood after Tuesday's home loss to the Pistons.
Big Kat Sports
Dallas Stars -110
The Dallas Stars will look for a point in their 5th straight game when they take on the Maple Leafs tonight at the Air Canada Center in Toronto. The Leafs are in the midst of a 5 game losing streak (0-3-2) and they have just 2 wins in regulation since the end of October. They are also going into their toughest stretch of the season and it really couldn't be coming at a worse time for them. The combined record for the teams Toronto will face in their next 7 games is 117-55-22 so things don't look like they will get better anytime soon for the Leafs. Toronto has been alternating goalies during their 5 game skid so it looks like Jonathan Bernier will get the call between the pipes tonight. He has allowed at least 4 goals in his last three starts and the team may be without both Tyler Bozak and Joffrey Lupul, who are nursing injuries. Dallas, who is 2-0-2 in its last 4 games will counter with Kari Lehtonen in goal. He has been good this season for the Stars, posting an 11-5-4 record with a 2.22 GAA and .928 save %. The team is also expected to get back top scorer Tyler Seguin tonight after he missed the last two games with a concussion. Throw in the fact that the Stars are 7-1 in their last 8 road games and that Toronto has won just 1 of 8 when playing with a day of rest and we'll take Dallas at the Pick Em' price to get the win and get us back on the right track here with the Bonus Free Plays.
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Louisville (-3) 27 CINCINNATI 24FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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My math model favors Louisville by 7 points even after adjusting for Cincinnati's improved offense with Brendon Kay at quarterback but the Bearcats apply to a very good 87-29-2 ATS home team off a late season bye angle that works just as well when the road team is also off a bye. In fact, conference road favorites of 3 points or more after a bye week are just 24-56 from game 5 on if the home team is also off a bye. I don't want to go against the trends, but I also don't want to go against the math. I'll pass on this one.
LT Profits
West Virginia vs Missouri
Pick: Missouri -6.5
The 7-0 Missouri Tigers are threatening to crack the national rankings, and they may very well do so if they successfully extend their home winning streak to 23 games vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Missouri has not really shown any weaknesses though seven games while ranking 21st in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3 percent and holding the opposition to just a 44.5 percent eFG%. They return home after winning two games in two nights in Las Vegas including beating home standing Nevada 83-70 in the final of that event. Their defense will be put to the test here vs. a West Virginia team that is fourth in the country in three-point shooting at 46.5 percent, but the Mountaineers lost their only true road game at Virginia Tech. West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games.
Louisville vs Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +140
The 10-1 Louisville Cardinals may be the team that is nationally ranked and boasts the quarterback that was considered a Heisman candidate entering the year in Teddy Bridgewater, but the Cincinnati Bearcats have had an equally fine season while flying under the radar at 9-2 and we like the Bearcats to make a national statement with the outright upset here. Cincinnati has won six straight games and is 5-0 with an average margin of +27.6 points at home, and it is the Bearcats and not Louisville that lead the AAC in total offense this year with 487.3 yards per game. But the real strength of the Cincinnati team is a defense ranked eighth nationally in total defense, fourth in rushing defense and 24th in passing defense in its first year under Coach Tommy Tuberville. Louisville is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win.
Joe Gavazzi
Jacksonville Jaguars +3
These two teams are a combined 5-19 SU, 6-17 ATS. Out of that, the Jags record is 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS. That was not unexpected considering their 2-14 SU season of last. The Jags pathetic offense has averaged only 15 PPG, 286 YPG and 4.7 YP Play, worst in the NFL. That includes a running game that averages just 71/3.0. Yet, the Jags were good enough to outgain Houston 333-218 in an earlier 13-6 victory, when visiting the Texans. And to their credit, they have not tossed the towel with a 32-28 victory in Cleveland last week backing up their victory at Houston. That makes them 3-1 SU ATS of late, covering by a net of 37 points with a +3 net TO margin. Houston, conversely, continues their downward spiral. After winning their 1st two games, Houston has dropped 10 consecutive contests and posted a 2-9-1 ATS mark. Injuries and TOs (-12 net TO margin, only the Jets are worse) has resulted in a -110 net AFP for the year. No one has been more incompetent than the Texans in that regard. Miraculously, they have managed to outgain the opposition by 61 YPG. It is a true endorsement of the way in which TOs can ruin your season. But before you get too excited about taking off the rubber band with the Jags tonight, note that they are 0-5 SU ATS on this field, scoring a total of only 35 points at home for the season. That is just 7 PPG.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Louisville/ Cincinnati Under 51: This game has the feel of a low scoring defensive battle. The Louisville offense has been sputtering of late, as they scored just 44 points in their last 2 games and I wouldn't expect their offense to break out in this one vs a Cincinnati defense that is 8th overall, 24th vs the pass and 4th vs the run, while allowing just 18.5 ppg. At home the Bearcat defense has been even better as they have allowed just 15.4 ppg in their home games this year. Now as good as the Bearcat defense has been this year, the Louisville defense has been even better. The Louisville defense comes in ranked 2nd overall, 2nd vs the pass and 2nd vs the run, while allowing just 11.4 ppg, which is 3rd in the nation. Louisville has allowed more than 17 points just once this year and I feel that they are more than capable of shutting this Cincinnati offense down. The Bearcat offense has been good this year, but it also is a product of the teams they have played. Probably the best defense they have faced this year was Houston and they scored just 24 points in that game. The Under is 11-2 in Cincinnati's last 13 games on Thursday, while the Under is 5-1 in Louisville's last 6 games off a bye week. Look for this one to put up less than 42 points.