Matt Rivers
Free play winner last night on the Charlotte Bobcats.
For Thursday, comp play winner is the Dallas Mavs as the small road underdog at Phoenix.
One of my tried-and-true NBA handicapping axioms is playing against a team in their first home game after three or more on the road. In tonight's scenario, that would be the Phoenix Suns who come back to the Valley of the Sun having just played six straight on the highway and went just 1-5 straight up.
Phoenix is not offering too much value right now on their home floor, going 2-6 versus the spread in their eight home games.
Dallas comes in having just gotten beat like a drum last night at the Clippers, but I will side with them to rebound tonight against the inferior Suns.
Dallas has gone 8-1 against the spread the past nine series meetings, why not make it 9-1?
Take any points available with the Mavs.
2♦ DALLAS
Ian Cameron
Cal-Santa Barbara at San Diego State
Recommendation: San Diego State
I have enjoyed a few winners betting against UC Santa Barbara this season and I was also able to cash a ticket betting on San Diego State in their win in Anaheim against UCLA on Saturday. I think tonight’s road game at San Diego offers another great opportunity to fade the Gauchos.
Don’t be fooled by UCSB’s last and only road win of the season against Santa Clara, 83-80 in OT. The Broncos were terrible in that game. Santa Clara shot only 36% from the floor and were plagued by turnovers and foul trouble. UCSB had a rare hot shooting night pouring in the basketball at a 45.3% clip from the floor but that’s been the exception, not the rule for the Gauchos this season. In their other games, they failed to score more than 72 points against Division I competition. UCSB has been annihilated in every other road game besides the Santa Clara game losing by margins of 14, 28 and 16 points (0-3 ATS). Note that none of those teams are as good as the one they’ll face tonight. The Gauchos are a very young and inexperienced team that lacks depth, scoring and defensive aptitude. That’s quite the bad combination of issues when you have to go on the road and take on a strong San Diego State team that I sense will be focused.
San Diego State slipped by a much better UCSB squad last year with a 76-75 OT win on the road. The Aztecs were also very lackadaisical in their last win at home against Texas Southern, winning 74-62 but only pulling away in the latter part of the second half. Those two games should have the Aztecs focused on the task at hand as I expect they will not take the Gauchos lightly this time around. San Diego State has great inside, outside balance with Jamaal Franklin and a now healthy Chase Tapley in the backcourt. DeShawn Stephens also returned from injury for the Aztecs against UCLA and has the presence inside to neutralize UCSB’s one and maybe only consistent scoring threat, Alan Williams. San Diego State has a major depth edge over the limited UCSB rotation as the Aztecs can put in very capable bench reserves such as guard James Rahon and forwards Dwayne Polee II, Skylar Spencer and Winston Shepard. The Aztecs play stifling defense holding foes to just 56.7 points per game on 36.4% shooting. I expect points to be few and far between for UCSB tonight on the road against a terrific defensive squad.
The last time these teams faced off on this court, San Diego State blasted UCSB 90-64 in 2010. It was the same story in 2008 with the Aztecs cruising to a 68-51 home win over the Gauchos. I don’t lay -15 or more unless I see a complete and utter mismatch in the making. I think we have that here. Lay the points with the far superior San Diego State Aztecs as they should hand UCSB another blowout road loss.