Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 8

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers
Play: New York Rangers

The Rangers are off to their best home start in over 20 years. Tonight they take on a Tampa team that has lost their last 5 overall and 3-10 on the road when the total is 5.5. When playing off 3+ losses Tampa has dropped 4 of the last five. They have struggled scoring on the road as they are 23rd in the league in that department. The Rangers are off a rare home loss this season and look to rebound here with 2 days rest. They have won all 4 times in that role this season and 11 of 14 vs teams under .500. In the only meeting this season the Rangers won down in Tampa 4-2. With the Rangers ranked 6th in home scoring and 7th in home defense, we will look their way tonight.

Sean Murphy

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

We cashed with the Ducks in their 3-2 win over the Kings two nights ago, and we'll go back to the well at a much more generous price as they visit the Blues on Thursday night.

Anaheim has looked re-energized under new head coach Bruce Boudreau. In three games since the coaching change, the Ducks have collected three points and scored nine goals. Their lone loss in regulation time over that stretch came against the first place Wild.

This is a nice way to start a short two-game road trip, as the Ducks have gone 3-1 against the Blues since the start of 2011, including a 4-2 win back on October 16th.

St. Louis is coming off a 3-2 victory over the Red Wings on Tuesday, which came on the heels of back-to-back losses. Keep in mind, that was the Blues second win over the Red Wings this season - they've simply had their number.

I'm still not convinced that the Blues are quite as good as their record indicates. They've been held to exactly two goals in regulation time in eight of their last nine games. Simply put, they don't have much margin for error based on the way they're playing. Only once over that nine-game period did they win by multiple goals.

That makes this a dangerous matchup, as the Ducks are loaded with offensive talent, and finally appear to be rounding into form, having scored 20 goals in their last six games.

In a battle between two veteran head coaches in new places, I'll take a shot with the Ducks at a significant underdog price. They still have plenty of work to do, but I believe they're on their way, and this is a fine opportunity to 'buy low'.

Nick Parsons

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers
PICK: New York Rangers

The road hasn't been kind to the Lightning, going just 4-10-0-2 away from friendly confines this year.

In fact, Tampa hasn't won since November 26th, a string of five-straight losses.

It's coming off back to back setbacks on the road, including 5-1 to the Islanders on Tuesday.

The Rangers are on fire, 15-6-1-2 overall, and a spectacular 7-2-0-1 in front of the home town crowd.

Although they're coming off a 4-2 loss to Toronto on Monday (their first in five games), the Rangers remain confident:

“Some games we’re playing great, some games we’re playing so-so, but we’re still staying in there and having a chance to win the game,” Dan Girardi said.

“The biggest thing for us is not to let losses build up,” Ryan Callahan said. “We gotta get right back on the horse here and get another win. … We have the confidence in this room. We know there’s gonna be losses during the year, it’s just a matter of rebounding from them.”

While the Lightning do play with "revenge" here, after losing to the Rangers 4-2 just last Saturday, this team is reeling and is reaching for answers:

“Our power play is in a drought and that’s the big difference in our team this year, the power play is not doing well at all,” coach Guy Boucher said.

The Rangers have had no such issues with their power-play of late, scoring six times in the past six games.

New York gets the nod in net as well as starter Henrik Lundqvist has not given up more than three goals in 11 consecutive starts.

Consider laying the price in this one.

Matt Fargo

Western Michigan @ Detroit
PICK: Western Michigan +5.5

Detroit is coming off a win against St. John's on Monday and that good situational spot has reversed itself here. It was a big night for the Titans as the spotlight was on
the renaming of the court at Calihan Hall for former Detroit coach Dick Vitale on the 32nd anniversary of his calling ESPN’s first college broadcast. It was an emotional night and it brought in the national spotlight as the game was featured on ESPN2 and of course at the end, the fans stormed the court making this the perfect spot to play against.

Detroit was picked by many to unseat Butler in the Horizon League and things have not exactly started that way. The Titans are just 4-6 following the win over St. John's and two of those losses came last weekend when conference action opened as they lost to Youngstown St. and Cleveland St., both at home. Injuries are playing a big role in the slow start as forward Nick Minnerath is out for the season with a knee injury and center Eli Holman has yet to play this season because of suspension and injury.

Western Michigan started the season 0-6 before picking up its first win of the season last Wednesday against Division III Hope University. It was far from a quality win but at least the Broncos were finally able to taste victory and provide some confidence moving forward. The early season schedule was brutal as the first six games were all away from home including games against Temple, Iona, Purdue and Gonzaga. Those games will only help Western Michigan moving forward.

There are rumors circulating that Holman could return tonight and even if he does, he will be rusty and the Broncos counter with their top player in center Matt Stainbrook. Detroit guards Chase Simon and Ray McCallum are coming off monster games but don't expect a repeat of that. This is a pretty big rivalry and Western Michigan has refused to keep the series going based on its feeling that Detroit did some tampering in acquiring two former Broncos players. Western Michigan will be the team with a full effort tonight.

Jim Feist

Eastern Michigan vs Drake
Pick: Drake

Eastern Michigan may have a 4-4 record, but they fattened up on cupcakes early and are now riding a 3-game skid. This is their 3rd straight road game and they come off a 74-70 loss at Colgate shooting 38% and allowing 55%. They shoot 38% as a team from the field for the season. The Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Drake is a good shooting team (.455%), is off a win over Air Force and hasn't been away from home this month. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play Drake!

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +14 over PITTSBURGH

Home side most certainly has an advantage on these Thursday night games but five of the six Thursday games thus far has seen the victorious team win by 10 or less. The only blowout was Seattle over Philly last week. The Steelers come into this one extremely banged up and that includes QB Ben Roethlisberger (hand). Roethlisberger at home usually spells big yardage and multiple scores but the Browns bring in a very good pass defense and there is no reason for Big Ben to throw the ball that much. The Browns never allow more than the one passing TD and rarely more than 200 passing yards. Expect a moderate game from Big Ben and conservative approach from the Steelers. The Browns lost by a combined 79-19 in two games to the Steelers last season. If nothing else, they’ll be looking to restore some dignity and work their rear ends off to give themselves a shot. Also note that in 10 of 12 games this season the Brownies have been within this range and the total here of 38½ suggests they’ll stay within range in this one too. Play: Cleveland +14 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Bryan Power

Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

Play on San Jose at 10:30 ET. Can't see the Sharks losing a third consecutive home game, particularly against a Dallas team they have dominated the previous three meetings. In three victories, San Jose has outscored Dallas 16-4 & that includes a 4-1 win in Big D two and half weeks ago. Not good news for a Stars team that is 2-14 on the road revenging a home loss of 3 goals or more. This is the opener of a five-game road trip for Dallas. The previous three seasons have seen the Stars go 1-4 SU on every five-game road swing. The Stars have been notorious slow starters, allowing opponents to score first in three of the previous four games. They are 1-6-1 SU this season when trailing after one period. Since opening 1-3, the Sharks have not lost three games in a row.

David Banks

Browns / Steelers Under

Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh where the Steelers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) will be gunning for their fourth straight win when they host the Cleveland Browns (4-8, 3-7-2 ATS) in the AFC North rivals first encounter of the season; the NFL Network will cover this one live starting at 8:20 ET.

Cleveland looks to be headed towards its fourth straight losing campaign having won just four of 12 games with two still to play with the Steelers along with a set of games against San Francisco and St. Louis. If only head coach Pat Shurmur’s squad had an offense, this club could have come possibly teased its fans and betting backers with at least a .500 record. As it is, the Brownies offense has scored an average of just 14.6 PPG (#28) and gained an anemic 290.8 YPG (#30). Injuries sustained by RB Peyton Hillis simply killed this team’s ground attack, and QB Colt McCoy has only thrown for 2524 yards at 5.90 yards per attempt and sports a 14/9 TD/INT ratio. He got nicked up last week at home vs. Baltimore, but is expected to give it a go Thursday night. Defensively, Cleveland has been rock solid in defending the pass (#1 at 173.3 YPG) which bodes well for them in this spot when chasing the Steelers speedy wide receivers, but defending the run has been another story (#31 at 151.2 YPG), so RB Rashard Mendenhall could have a huge night for fantasy players.

The defending AFC champs enter this Week 14 prime time battle with the Browns in fine form having rattled off three straight wins (2-1 ATS), which includes a pair of covers both at home and on the road against the division rival Cincinnati Bengals. Last week's woodshed beating of the Bengals was head coach Mike Tomlin's squad’s most impressive win of the season. After a scoreless first quarter, the Steelers erupted for 28 points in the second quarter to cruise 35-7 home win and cover as TD favorites. RB Mendenhall and WR Mike Wallace combined for four touchdowns, while QB Ben Roethlisberger completed 65 percent of his passes for 176 yards without an interception; he’s thrown for 614 yards and four touchdowns to just two interceptions throughout Pittsburgh's current three-game winning streak. The Steelers stand 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home to date with the lone loss coming in the form of a last-second defeat at the hands of the hated Baltimore Ravens.

Pittsburgh has flat out owned the Browns winning nine of the last 10 overall meetings while posting a 5-4-1 ATS tally during that stretch. They swept the season series a year ago both SU & ATS winning 28-10 at home as 14 point favorites while going into Cleveland and handing the Browns an embarrassing 41-9 defeat (-6.5). Though the Browns have split their last eight games versus the pointspread when installed road underdogs of 10-14 points, they're just 1-6 ATS against the L/7 AFC North opponents faced and 2-10-1 ATS the L/13 times they played off a SU defeat. The Steelers have won each of the last five times they were installed a favorite of this magnitude and gone 8-2 ATS their L/10 within the division, but check in with a poor 6-16 ATS record when favored by 10.5 points or more.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Boston College +13

Off 3 consecutive defeats, Boston College will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor to take on a Providence team it has beaten each of the last 3 seasons. This series has typically been very tight. In fact, in 20 meetings dating back to 1997, no team has won by more than 13 points and that has only been the margin of victory once during this span. Under coach Donahue, Boston College is 9-2 ATS in all lined road games. It is also 7-0 ATS in all road games following 1 or more consecutive losses. I must also mention the Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Friars are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. Providence hasn't shown it can be trusted laying this many points. Take Boston College.

SPORTS WAGERS

Vancouver -½ +123 over MONTREAL

Kudos to the Montreal Canadiens for scoring two fluke goals en route to a 3-2 OT loss to the Jackets on Tuesday night. The Habs had no business securing a point, they’ve dropped five of six and this isn’t the Columbus Blue Jackets. What can we say about the Canadiens without sounding like a broken record? This team wins games because of Carey Price and that’s all there is to it. Man for man, there really isn’t a less talented team in the NHL. The Canucks are an elite squad that is just getting into gear. They’ve won seven of eight and they’ve scored five goals or more in three straight and four goals or more in five of their last six. Vancouver also has three shutouts over its last seven games. It’s also a good situation for the Canucks, as they embark on a five–game trip and this is the first leg in a city that every player looks forward to playing in. So, once again, if Carey Price beats us so be it. What is almost 100% guaranteed is that the Habs will be badly outplayed. Play: Vancouver -½ +123 (Risking 2 units).

CALGARY -½ +135 over Colorado

Both teams are a game under .500 but the difference is that the Avalanche started out strong and have faltered while the Flames started out slow and are coming on. Calgary is 4-1-1 over its last six games with only regulation loss over that span occurring in Vancouver. Incredibly enough, the Flames have outscored the Avs 33-14 in winning the last eight meetings since a 6-5 loss on Oct. 28, 2010. Calgary has already won three meetings this season against Colorado. The Avalanche have named J.S. Giguere tonight’s starter and he’s a liability. It also looks like Paul Stastny is out and Ryan Wilson is definitely out. Wilson is one of those guys that can get a team going with his physical play and his absence is bigger than most know. The Flames confidence is high and it’s soaring when they face this foe. Not only do they have the advantage of playing at home and playing well, but they have a big psychological edge too. Play: Calgary -½ +135 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +200 over NEW JERSEY (3-way betting line)

Taking back a tag like this against the Devils is about as sweet as it gets and it gets a little sweeter with Marty Brodeur in net. The Devils had lost four in a row before beating a Leafs team coming off back-to-back games against Boston and a win in New York. It was simply a favorable spot for the Devils and they managed to win in OT. The Devils have gone seven straight games with two goals or less during regulation. This is a lower-tiered club that returns home from a four-game trip to play in a half empty arena with no atmosphere. Ottawa is in a tough spot too, playing its third game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs. However, they got off to a very sluggish start last night and picked it up in the second and third periods against a determined Capitals. This intruder has shown a tremendous resiliency all season and there’s no denying the fact that they have just as good a shot of winning as the host. Alex Auld gets the start for the Sens. Play: Ottawa +200 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +260 over ST. LOUIS (3-way betting line)

Appears like the coaching change has helped the Ducks for the time being and this could be a good spot for them. Since Bruce Boudreau took over, Anaheim is 2-1-1 and now they’ll hit the road for the first time with its new coach. There’s still lots of room for improvement and the weaknesses on the Ducks are glaring at times but any team that features prolific scoring and great goaltending has a shot and that’s precisely what we get from Anaheim. Jonas Hiller has been inconsistent this season but when he’s on, he’s outstanding. The Blues are coming off a hard fought and intensely played game against Detroit. They won that game 3-2 and once again Brian Elliott was the difference. The Blues have been extremely stingy but they’re also are an offensively challenged club with two goals in eight straight games before scoring three on Detroit. The Ducks have a little momentum and they’re surely feeling a little better. A couple of wins do wonders for a team’s psyche and overall frame of mind. First game on road under new direction offers up some excellent value against a team coming off intense win over intense rival. Play: Anaheim +260 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Vancouver Canucks -130

Vancouver comes into tonight's game winning 7 of their last 8 games, pushing their record to a solid 16-10-1. On the road Vancouver is 8-6 and they've won 3 straight road games. The Canucks have held opponents to just 5 goals in their 7 wins, with their only downfall being a 6-5 loss to Nashville. On the year the Canucks are averaging a high 3.3 goals per game, while holding opponents to 2.4/game. They hold the league's best powerplay converting 25.9% of their chances, and their PK is 6th in the league. The Habs are struggling again, after it looked like they were going to turn things around a bit. Montreal started off the season winning just once in their first 8 games, before winning 9 of 14, but has since dropped 5 of their last 6 games. Their latest loss was on Tuesday night in shootout against the Blue Jackets, and the Habs haven't won at home since November 19th against the Rangers. Montreal is averaging a low 2.4 goals per game, with part of the reason being their 28th ranked powerplay (just 11.8%). Montreal does have a good penalty kill at 89.5%, which they will need against the Canucks tonight. Both teams have some injuries, but Roberto Luongo is expected to be ok for tonight's game. Right now Vancouver is the much better team, and I think tonight's price is generous given the struggled Montreal is having. Take Vancouver to win.

New York Islanders +125

Tonight I'll be backing the New York Islanders tonight, who have won 4 of their last 5 games and are playing good hockey. Their lone loss was against tonight's opponent in Chicago, where they fell 5-4 in a shootout in a game they could have very easily won (they out played and out shot the Blackhawks). The Islanders goal scorers have woken up, and as a team they are averaging 3.80 goals per game over their last 5. During that span they are holding opponents to 2.4 goals against. The Islanders are just 9-11-5 on the season, but a respectable 6-6-2 at home. Chicago is coming off of a 4-3 shootout loss at home against the Coyotes on Monday night, marking their second loss to Phoenix in their past 4 games. Chicago has won just 4 of their last 9 games, but are still a solid 16-8-4 on the season. Note that the Blackhawks are great at home going 8-2-3 so far this season, but are only 8-6-1 on the road. Ray Emery will get another start for the Blackhawks. He is 4-2-1 with a 2.93 GAA and .890 SV%. Al Montoya is 5-3-2 for the Islanders with a low 2.07 GAA and .933 SV%. New York is playing very good hockey right now, and I think they should have the confidence in themselves after they nearly took down the Blackhawks in Chicago less than a week ago. A good spot for the Islanders to pull of an upset tonight - take the Isles to win.

WUNDERDOG

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Pick: Pittsburgh +105

A natural in-state rivalry takes place in Philadelphia tonight as the Penguins invade the City of Brotherly Love. But there's no love here between these rivals, and Pittsburgh has dominated the Flyers on their own ice, winning seven of their last eight and always pack their "A" game for this short trip. The Flyers have won three straight with no margin for error with two of the three verdicts achieved in overtime. The Penguins have been good on the road of late taking three of their last four. As well as being at their best in Philadelphia, the Penguins have been a force off of two days of rest at 39-14 in their last 53. The Flyers are just 4-9 in their last 13 as home chalk from -110 to -150. This looks like a very live dog here, so I'll back Pittsburgh.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit E. Michigan +12

After getting clubbed by Michigan State and Syracuse, Eastern Michigan lost by 4 points at Colgate. Those 3 consecutive defeats will have the Eagles hungry tonight as they look to avenge last year's 4-point home loss to Drake. The Bulldogs haven't done enough to deserve this kind of respect from odds makers. Plus, consider that they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points as E. Mich keeps this one within the number.

Dave Price

1 Unit West Virginia +5

Huggins is a proven motivator and that claim is supported by the numbers. During his time at WVU, his teams are an impressive 13-5 ATS off a road loss. They are bouncing back to win by an average score of 76.2 to 61.5 in these games. It's also worth mentioning that Huggins' teams are 24-9 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997. His teams have bounced back to win by an average score of 77.4 to 63.4 in this situation. We'll bet West Virginia.