Jack Jones
Boston College +13.5
There's no question this is a rebuilding year at Boston College. However, this young squad is only going to get better as the season progresses. After their slow 2-6 start to the season, the Eagles are certainly undervalued right now. The have played a difficult schedule, which will certainly benefit them going forward.
Providence is off to a fast 7-2 start, but there's no question in my mind that this team is way overvalued right now. They have played a very soft schedule, with their seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Fairfield, Florida A&M, Southern U, Holy Cross, South Carolina and Brown. They lost to Iowa State 54-64 and Northern Iowa 62-79, both on neutral courts.
This has been a very tightly-contested series dating back to 1998. All 19 meetings between the Friars and Eagles during this span were decided by 13 points or less. This is a huge rivalry, and I have no doubt this one will go right down to the wire again Thursday.
Boston College is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses. Providence is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. BC is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The clear value in this game is with the road underdog. Bet Boston College Thursday.
Steve Janus
Connecticut -5.5
My money is on the Huskies in tonight's showdown between No. 24 Harvard and No. 9 Connecticut on ESPN2. The Crimson are the first Ivy League team to be ranked since Princeton back in 1997-98. They better enjoy while they can. The Huskies are the favorites in this game, but I expect them to play like underdogs. Harvard is getting all the attention coming into this matchup, which I believe will fuel one of the Huskies best performances of the season.
A lot of people will look and see that Connecticut's lone loss of the season came against UCF, who Harvard beat 59-49 just a day later. What they won't realize is the Huskies didn't have sensational freshman Ryan Boatright, who was suspended for the first six games. Boatright scored 14 in his season debut against Florida State, but exploded in the Huskies last game for 23 points with six assists and five rebounds.
Boatright has an incredible ability to create his own shot, which I believe will be the difference in this game. The main reason Harvard is still undefeated is they are allowing just 54.4 ppg. I look for Connecticut to feed off the home crowd and really rattle the Crimson tonight.
Connecticut is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Lenny Del Genio
Harvard at Connecticut
Play: Connecticut
Play on Connecticut at 7:00 ET. It's a light College Basketball card on Thursday, but there is one game involving Top 25 teams. Surprisingly, it involves Harvard! The Crimson play for the first time ever as a ranked team tonight and they draw a tough assignment in Storrs against a UConn team that beat them 81-52 in Hartford last season. That continued a disturbing trend for the Ivy Leaguers, who are 6-38 SU all-time vs. current Big East schools. Additionally, Connecticut is on a 38-0 SU run at home vs. out of conference competition. We simply can't see any way that Harvard can match UConn point for point as the Huskies average 75.5 PPG (48.7% shooting). The Huskies will only continue to get better with frosh PG Ryan Boatwright now firmly entrenched in the lineup after missing the first 6 games due to suspension. He is coming off a 23-5-6 performance in a 75-62 win over Arkansas on Saturday. We (barely) cashed the Huskies in that one as 12.5-point favorites. Harvard isn't sneaking up on anyone anymore. Take Connecticut.
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cleveland Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in this Prime Time Matchup. The Browns have no chance in covering this one, even getting two touchdowns from Pitt. The Browns are sitting at a weak 4-8 season, only beating Jacksonville, Seattle, Miami and the Colts while Pitt has only lost three games all season and are coming into this matchup off three straight wins and a huge cover over Cincinnati where they won 35-7. Looking back to last season, Pitt beat Cleveland twice, once 28-10 at home and they crushed them 41-9 on the road in the second matchup. Cleveland is going to have another embarrassing loss to Pitt this season and not come anywhere close to a cover.
Play on: Pittsburgh
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Western Michigan. Detroit Under 143: Hard to believe the OU line is this high, with the style of offense these teams employ. I guess it's all about the defense and these teams have struggled at that end of the floor. The Titans come in having allowed 70.4 ppg overall on 43.2 ppg, but this is a different team when playing at home where they have allowed 63.6 ppg on just 39.8% shooting. Detroit's last 3 at home have put no more than 132 points on the board and that's because they play the bore you to death style of play when in front of the home crowd. The Titans do like the slow down pace and they come in averaging jsut 63.7 ppg at home (vs Division 1) this year on 44.7% shooting overall, including a mere 22% from long range. This is not a team that will put up many points on a consistent basis, even when taking on a bad defense like that of the Broncos. Western Michigan has allowed 83.2 ppg in their last 4 games vs Division 1 opponents, but playing the likes of Gonzaga, Purdue, Colorado and Iona, will put pressure on any defense. Back in November the Broncos played a Temple team with the same style as Detroit and they allowed just 69 points in a game that saw just 124 points scored. I feel the Broncos can keep the Titans offense up wraps here and they will need to if they hope to win as their own offense has really struggled to score. WMU comes in averaging 65 ppg on just 40.2% shooting and they have hit just 61.3% of their FT's, while on the road they have averaged just 56.5 ppg on just 34.9% shooting, including 17.9% from beyond the arc. Neith team shoots the 3 very well, both teams run a stagnant offense, and while the defenses have struggled i just don't see this game hitting more than 135 points.
3 UNIT PLAY
West Virginia/ Kansas State Under 137: Now here are 2 teams that know how to play some defense. KSU comes in allowing just 59 ppg on a mere 33.1% shooting, including just 25.8 % from long range. i know this is a neutral court game, but when KSU has played away from home they have allowed just 61 ppg on just 33.8% shooting, including a very stout 17.9% from long range. WVU has had a few struggles on defense early on (70.5 ppg in their first 2 games), but they have played solid at that end of the floor, as they have allowed just 60.3 ppg on just 39.3% shooting in their last 4 games.Lets also note that both teams are in the top 25 in rebounding and while both teams do average 75+ ppg, we also must note that both teams don't shoot well away from home, especially from long range where WVU hits just 13% of their shots, while KSU hits just 23% of theirs, plus both teams are very bad from the charity stripe. I expect that very good defense will shine tonight, especially vs a couple of offenses that don't shoot well away from home or from beyond the arc or from the FT line. Got all that? LOL Go Low here.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn/ Harvard Under 129.5: This is my Google News play, which is now 5-1 since I started posting them. Full writeup can be found in the news section of pregame. When the OU line in this one came out last night I said Oh yeah this will be an Under play for me. The Crimson is a team that relies oin their defense to win games and tonight will be no exception. Harvard is not a great offensive team and it will be very hard for this team to get a lot of hoops on the inside, meaning the will have to work the ball around to look for the open shot and that will use a lot of clock. Harvard is not great from the perimeter (177th) SO it could be hard for them to score either inside or out. The Huskies are a solid team on offense and it will be hard for the Crimson to stop them on the inside, but i still expect this Crimson defense to come up with some big stops as well. Harvard will NOT run in this game and UConn is just as comfortable at playing the half court game as they are in pushing the ball. 3 of Havard's last 4 games have seen no more than 109 points put up and if they hope to win this one, that will be the pace they need. I expect around 120 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma/ Oral Roberts Over 139: Oral Roberts has played good defense this year, bit have yet to face an offense as good as Oklahoma's. The Sooners have hit the 78 point mark or better in 5 of their 6 games this year and they have averaged a stellar 84 ppg at home on the year. ORU averages 70.4 ppg on the year and they shoot well hitting 46.1% of their shots. OU has allowed 64 ppg and I would be very happy if Oral Roberts could get that tonight, as I expect OU to hit at least 78 points for the 6th time in 7 games.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
PITTSBURGH -14 over Cleveland: What a mismatch this game is. Last year Pitt outscored this Browns team by a 69-19 count and in their last 4 wins vs Cleveland they have won by an average of 23.5 ppg. The Steelers are really playing well right now and they are very healthy now, especially on offense. Pitt did stumble a couple of weeks ago vs Kansas City as they only put up 13 points, but this team has still averaged 25.5 ppg over their last 8 games and they are off a game in which they put 35 points on a very tough Cincy defense. Cleveland hasn't been too bad on defense as they have allowed 20 ppg and 324.6 ypg, but on the road they have allowed 23.2 ppg and 346.6 ypg, while Pittsburgh has scored 26.5 ppg with 389 ypg at home this year. The Cleveland offense has been horrible this year as they have averaged just 14.6 ppg and 298 ypg overall. They do average 17.2 ppg on the road, but they will struggle tonight vs a Pitt defense that has been tough all year, allowing 16.2 ppg overall and a mere 12.8 ppg at home. Cleveland just doesn't have enough offense to keep this one close. Pittsburgh in a rout. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Road teams on Thursday's that have lost 3 out of their last 4 games have gone just 5-23 ATS since 1983.