Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 9,2010

Sam Martin

IUPUI at Ohio State
Prediction: Ohio St

This line is too big for us to release as a premium selection, but we still feel there is good line value with Ohio State here. The Buckeyes have been off for a while (haven't played since Nov 30) and must be itching to finally take the court. And they'll take on an IUPUI team that has been a double-digit underdog twice already this year, failing to cover the spread in either occurrence. In fact, when IUPUI isn't a huge favorite or in a non-lined game, they haven't been able to break 63 points scored (in six tries). Buckeyes win very big - in the neighborhood of 30 or more!

Tom Freese

New Jersey Nets at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

New Jersey is 6-16 straight up this year. The Nets are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. The Nets are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games as road underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Nets are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games overall. Dallas is 17-4 straight up this year and they are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. Dallas is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 ATS with one day of rest.

Bryan Leonard

Butler vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier +1

The Muskateers are going through a rebuilding phase of sorts this year but at this price they are a bargain. This is a team that lost by a single point at Butler last year and we all know how the Bulldogs did in the big dance. Xavier is rarely in this point range at home and they are off an embarrassing loss at Miami Ohio, a team that has really struggled thus far. Xavier was a 7 point road favorite in that game and lost outright by double digits. The previous game the Muskateers had to go to triple overtime in this building to beat Wofford. But despite their troubles thus far this is an ideal spot to right the ship with a full week off.

Butler is in a terrible scheduling spot. The last three games they lost outright at home to Evansville in overtime, went to the wire at Loyola Chicago in a 2 point victory, and laid it all on the line against Duke in a rematch for the national title. Now they take on a young Xavier team that they beat each of the last two years. Butler hasn't been anything special over the years off a loss and after posting a 33-4 record a year ago they have already dropped 3 of 6 lined games this season in straight up fashion.

It's clear that both teams are down from a season ago but yet the Bulldogs remain overpriced in the betting market, they may not be after this game.

Jim Feist

Magic vs. Trail Blazers
Play: Under 185

Reason: A pair of outstanding defensive teams meet here, both ranked in the Top 7 in points allowed in the NBA. Orlando is No. 1, allowing 90.8 ppg, on a 4-1 run under the total. The Blazers play their best basketball at home, on a 3-2 run under the total on this floor. Orlando allows allows just 43% shooting by opponents -- 6th in the NBA, so look for a defensive duel. Play the Magic/Blazers Under the total.

EZWINNERS

Indianapolis Colts -3.5

The Colts are 6-6 on the season and have lost three straight games as Peyton Manning has been in an interception throwing funk. This game against the Titans should allow the Colts a chance to get back on track. Manning has had some of his best games in the past against the Titans and this Tennessee team is really struggling. The Titans are 5-7 and have lost five straight games and have failed to score an offensive touchdown in thirteen straight quarters. Titans quarterback Kerry Collins has not played well in place of the injured Vince Young as Collins has only completed 76 of 139 passes for 807 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions with a 68.8 QB rating. The Titans have also struggled running the ball as in the last two games Tennessee running back Chris Johnson has rushed for a total of 20 times for just 58 yards and zero touchdowns. Both of these teams need this game to keep playoff hopes alive and I will side with Peyton Manning and company. Lay the points.

Ray Monohan

Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: Los Angeles Kings

The LA Kings haven't had much luck vs. the Flames lately. Actually its been about 368 days since their last win (2-1). But this one is going to beat to the tune of a different drummer as I feel these are two teams headed in opposite directions. LA while struggling as of late have since registered back-to-back 3-2 home victories, and appear to be righting the ship. If anyone has the balls to say they know which Flames team will show up on Thursday I'll personally by them dinner. They are A HUGE MYSTERY, and a team in my opinion missing an identity. The Flames have battled inconsistency all season, and have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games.

We all know the preseason hype that followed the Kings this year, tabbed to be a Stanley Cup Contender by the "experts". But so far they've been pretty much anything but, except for Saturday. A BIG win over the Red Wings. I truly believe LA is coming on. They're killing penalties at an 86.6 percent clip (5th in the NHL), and their D is Top 5 in the NHL scoring points and generating points off the rush. Throw in the goaltender Jonathan Quick and you have a recipe for a team on the rise. The 3rd year netminder is having a sensational season, with a 13-5-0 record, a 1.92 GAA, and a .928 Save percentage. (The 3rd best GAA in the NHL).

LA are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, Calgary is 2-7 in their last 9 road games. Sum it all up and I'm on the Kings tonight at a great price, as this is a VERY winnable game for the Kings. I think the number on this ones going to climb so hit it early & often and let's pad that bankroll.

Note: Totals bettors take note. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Calgary.

Rocketman

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. St Louis Blues
Play: St Louis Blues -145

St Louis is 4-0 this year when playing with 3 or more days rest. Columbus has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. St Louis is 8-3 at home this year. St Louis is 21-7 at home vs Columbus since 1996 and 5-1 SU and ATS at home vs Columbus last 3 years. Blue Jackets are 17-35 in their last 52 games as a road underdog. Blue Jackets are 13-27 in their last 40 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Blue Jackets are 21-47 in their last 68 vs. Central. Blue Jackets are 110-256-15 in their last 381 road games. Blue Jackets are 15-37 in their last 52 games as an underdog. Blue Jackets are 29-79-1 in their last 109 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Blue Jackets are 5-21 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Blues are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Blues are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win. Blues are 17-5 in their last 22 home games. Blues are 16-5 in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Blues are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Blues are 14-5 in their last 19 games as a favorite. Home team is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings. Favorite is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Blue Jackets are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings. Blue Jackets are 7-21-1 in the last 29 meetings in St. Louis. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!

Frank Jordan

New Jersey Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -10.5

New Jersey is going up against one of their former players that lead them to back to back Finals appearances, but it ended poorly and he was shipped off to Dallas. The Nets are in last place with a 6-16 record, are 2-10 on the road and have lost 5 in a row. Dallas is the hottest team in the NBA with a 10 game winning streak and within 1 game of first place of San Antonio. Look for Dallas who is 6-1 against the East this year to win their 10th home game of the season as they run wild over New Jersey. Play Dallas

Ben Burns

Sharks @ Sabres
PICK: Under 5.5

The Sharks are off a high-scoring (5-4 win) game at Philadelphia last night. That doesn't mean we'll see a similar result tonight though. In fact, the 'under' is a profitable 19-10-2 (65.5%) the past few seasons, when the Sharks have played the second of back to back games. With tonight's game being played at Buffalo, those numbers have a solid shot at improving.

The Sabres have allowed a mere 10 goals over their last seven games. ALL seven of those games finished with five or fewer combined goals. Those games averaged a mere 3.29 combined goals. For the season, Buffalo has seen the 'under' go 8-3-2 when facing a team with a winning record.

The Sharks, who have seen the 'under' go 191-137-20 (58%) the past 300+ times they were coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals, also played here last season. In that game, they combined with the Sabres for only four goals, a 3-1 Buffalo win. Consider the Under

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE +4 over Indianapolis

This line opened on Sunday with the Colts being a 1½-point choice and it’s been absolutely pounded since. Now, we’re like everyone else in figuring that the Colts should wreck this Titans club. In fact, Tennessee not only is playing putrid football, they’re unwatchable. What we’re sure about is that the odds makers didn’t make an error or oversight when they came out with the opening line. They 100% guaranteed knew that in this one single game with not another NFL game to bet on the board tonight that the Colts would get all the money. We repeat, they did not make a mistake. They lines makers could have made Indy a 6½-point favorite here and not swayed a single bet. Tennessee has been shredded two games in a row. They couldn’t move five yards last week and they couldn’t move two yards the week before. Both Jacksonville and Houston ran through them like they were standing still and you know what, they were. Now Peyton Manning is taking a little heat for the first time in years and you know he’s going to be fired up. So, with the Colts being the Colts, with a pissed off Peyton Manning going against an aging and rather useless Kerry Collins, how the hell can anyone bet the Titans here? If this isn’t the trap of the year than nothing is and it says here that you had better be extra cautious in making your wager because the Titans are very likely not only going to cover, but they’re likely to win outright. How do we figure? The oddsmakers told us so when they made the Colts a 1½-point favorite in an isolated Thursday night game. Play Tennessee +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia -½ +1.12 over TORONTO

Please don’t be fooled by the Maple Leafs two recent wins over the Bruins and Caps. It happened and there’s no explanation other than the Caps likely thought they were home free with a 4-1 third period lead. Fact is, nothing has changed for the Leafs. Its offense is a joke, its defense is average at best with no offensive skills at all and its goaltending, the one bright spot this season, is starting to show some wear and tear now. Ron Wilson and Brian Burke are going right back to their buddy tonight, a big mistake, with J.S. Giguere in net against a Flyer team loaded with sniper after sniper after sniper. Why these two morons continue to give Francois Beauchemin ice time is puzzling because he’s hands down the worst defenseman in the NHL and Wilson plays him against the oppositions best. Actually it’s not puzzling, Beauchemin is their buddy too and Burke brought him over from Anaheim for 3.8M per. Dion Phaneuf returns to the lineup with his zero goals and weak defensive skills and that only helps the Flyers chances because Phaneuf will not be sharp when he is out there. Philly has beaten up badly on weak teams all season long and this contest is unlikely to be any different. Philly blew a 4-1 lead last night to San Jose and the best remedy for a loss like that is to get back on the ice as soon as possible. The Leafs were dominated in Pittsburgh for two periods and were down 4-0 going to the third. The Pens took its foot of the gas and the Leafs scored a couple of goals before the Pens woke up again and put them away. Philly should and likely will smoke this host with that stiff Giguere in net. Play: Philadelphia -½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Rangers +1.04 over OTTAWA

The Sens are a complete train wreck at the moment and playing at home is certainly not beneficial, as the fans are becoming more frustrated with each passing game. Ottawa has just one win over its last six games at home and that lone win came against the punchless Maple Leafs, 3-0. Ottawa has also scored one goal or less in six of its last eight games and that’s a pretty remarkable number. You would literally have to be somewhat rich or drunk to be laying juice with a team that is probably going to score one goal here. The Rangers have four wins over its last six games and a loss to these Senators in New York this past Sunday can’t be sitting too well with them. That was the last time both these teams played and with four days to think about it, give us a tag with the superior squad. One other note here is that the Sens have not beaten the Rangers twice is a row in over three years and that’s when Ottawa was a lot more appealing than they are right now. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Georgetown -1.5

Most likely thought of as a square play here, these GT Hoyas grab our free spotlight call here as we follow this Temple team closely and there is just something missing! We have been to several ball games and the Temple Owls just do not have that extra intangible pop that great teams need. How about a poor poor ball game. I mean deplorable effort vs Cal, a team who just got housed by San Diego State by 20. The Owls do not have the ability to stop the great guard play of the Hoyas... Freeman and Wright. We have followed Wright from his days of St Johns Catholic in D.C. THIS KID CAN PLAY, PERIOD!! The Hoyas have a great coach and a deeper bench. " Nate Lubick for 1" The Owls will play tough the 1st 3/4's of the game and then the Hoyas pull away and win by 8 to 10.

LT Profits

Blazers +2½

The Portland Trail Blazers might surprisingly be under .500 this season at 10-11, but they continue to have a strong home court advantage just as in past years and we look for them to use The Rose Garden to their advantage again Thursday as they upset the Orlando Magic on the NBA betting odds on TNT.

The NBA latest line from Bookmaker for this contest is Portland +2½, with the betting odds set at -110.

Portlandmay be having difficulties on the road, but the Blazers are 6-3 at home both straight up and in NBA betting ATS, winning their games here by an average of +4.3 points. The biggest disparity in their performance home vs. away has been on the defensive end.

Yes, Portland has been good defensively wherever they play, ranking seventh in the NBA in scoring defense at just 95.6 points per game. However, they take that defense rises to another level when they play at home, as they are allowing only 92.7 points per game on 45.3 percent shooting in this building.

Meanwhile, the Magic may be a robust 15-6 straight up and leading the Southeast Division, but they are a poor 8-13 against the NBA odds. As if that is not bad enough, they have covered just twice in nine road games this season, with those covers coming at Detroit and Chicago. We feel that this Portland venue is tougher on road teams than those two sites, as the tremendous home court advantage the Blazers have had for years has been fueled by a normally raucous crowd.

The problem for Orlando on the road has been offense, as they are averaging a poor 92.8 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting away from home. That does not figure to change here given Portland’s home defensive stats, so take the Blazers to upset in this NBA matchup.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Xavier -1

This game is all about revenge for Xavier, which went down to Butler by 1 point in a controversial finish last year. The Musketeers are 3-0 at home this season, and they'll be happy and hungry to get back on their home floor following a loss to Miami Ohio. Taking Xavier following a defeat has been a quality investment to say the least. In fact, the Musketeers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Xavier has also been a strong favorite. The Musketeers are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Bulldogs are still adjusting to life without first-round NBA draft pick Gordon Hayward. That's going to take some time. We'll lay the small number with the home team tonight.