John Ryan
New Jersey Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: New Jersey Nets +10.5
5* graded play on the New Jersey Nets set to start at 8:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Nets will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. This is the first time that former Mavs coach Avery Johnson will face his old team. Johnson had strong winning streaks during the regular season while the coach at Dallas, but he failed to produce the same results in the playoffs sporting a 23-24 playoff record. After making the NBA finals in 2006 he failed to win first round playoff series in 2007 and 2008 and then was dismissed from the team. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 54-21 ATS for 72% winners since 1996. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and is a tired team playing eight or more games in 14 days. Dallas is 3-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Mavericks are coming off a 105-100 win over Golden State, but failed to cover the eight point spread. Dallas is 1-11 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Take the New Jersey Nets.
Info Plays
3* Trail Blazers +3
Reasons why Portland will cover:
1) Dwight Howard has his lowest career road average against the Trail Blazers, averaging just under 13 points a game at the Rose Garden. Without Howard scoring, the Magic will likely have to rely to the 3-point shot, but Portland is 23-10 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons, and are 62-43 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
2) Trail Blazers are 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games as a home underdog, while the Magic are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
3)Play against - any team (Orlando) - off a home loss against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins, as its 133-83 over the last 5 seasons.
Black Widow
1* on New Jersey Nets +10.5
Fading the Dallas Mavericks at home has made bettors a ton of money over the last few seasons. We'll fade them tonight as they host the New Jersey Nets as Devin Harris gets another shot at his former team. The Nets are very hungry for a win to put an end to their 5-game losing streak. Dallas is greatly overvalued right now as they are on a 10-game winning streak. They'll be much more interested in their next game against the Utah Jazz than they will be tonight against the Nets, where they feel like they just have to show up to win. These are the spots where fading teams like the Mavs can prove to be very prosperous. The Mavericks are 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 home games. Dallas is 8-23-2 ATS in their last 33 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Mavs are 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents. The Nets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. New Jersey is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Nets and the points.
Ross Benjamin
Orlando @ Portland
Play: Under 185.0
Portland has allowed less than 100 points in each of their last 7 games. The Magic have been quite similar in that regard allowing less than 100 in each of their last 6 games. The Blazers have also shot less than 40% from the field in 5 of their last 8 games. Under head coach Nate McMillan the Blazers have gone under the total in 68 of their last 99 games when their previous game had both teams combine for 205 points or more. Orlando has gone under the total in their last 9 games when coming off a SU favorite loss.
Any road team with a total between 180-189.5 that failed to cover in their last 2 games or more, versus an opponent with a winning percentage of between .600-.750 has gone under the total in 52 of the 74 games in this situation since the start of the 2005-2006 season.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are really hitting their stride under first-year head coach Doug Collins. It was a sloppy start to his tenure, but players are starting to buy in and play very well. In fact, all five starter scored in double-figures in their 117-97 victory over Cleveland last time out. Plus, Thaddeus Young came off the bench for 26 points and Louis Williams put up 19 points in the victory, making for seven different players scoring double-digit points. Philly is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall as they've been a covering machine and are constantly undervalued in the eyes of the betting public and the odds makers.
Philly catches Boston in a tough spot tonight as the Celtics will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating the Nuggets last night. The Celtics are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. This play also falls under a system that is 39-10 (79.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Philadelphia) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games. The 76ers have won by 18 and 20 points in their last two games and they continue their solid play with not only a cover tonight, but likely an upset as they win their 6th straight at home. Roll with the 76ers Thursday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Nets/Mavericks UNDER 188
The Under is 16-5-1 in the Mavericks' last 22 home games, 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference and 10-1 in their last 11 Thursday games. Dallas is only allowing 91.3 ppg at home this season. I expect New Jersey to have some success in slowing down the Mavs as well thanks to Avery Johnson's knowledge of his former team. Bet the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Temple Owls +2.5
Temple lost by a single point on the road in last season's meeting with Georgetown as it held the Hoyas to just 46 points. The Owls still play that tough, disciplined defense, and it will help them be even more successful on their home floor this time around. Going against Temple at home has not been a good idea. In fact, the Owls are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 lined games at home. Going back even further, the Owls are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 home lined games. Temple is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. With Georgetown at 8-0 with a Top 10 national ranking, expect Temple to knock the target of the Hoyas' back in this one.
LARRY NESS
Boston @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia +5
The Celtics have won eight straight games (5-2-1 ATS) and sport a 17-4 overall record as they visit Philadelphia tonight, the first game of TNT's doubleheader. There was a time when Boston/Philly was a major rivalry but that's been awhile. Since Allen and KG have joined Pierce in Boston, the Celtics have won 10 of 12 meetings between the two clubs, including all SIX in Philadelphia. However, that may change tonight. It's not like the Celtics are looking vulnerable but all of a sudden, the 76ers are showing some signs of 'life.' Philly has won five straight home games (5-0 ATS), averaging 101.2 PPG in that stretch. Brand (15.6-7.8) is playing hard at both ends of the floor (about time) while steady vet Iquodala (13.9-6.6-5.5) and second-year PG Holiday (13.4-7.0 APG) are playing excellent basketball these days. Boston's "Big 3" is steady as it goes while Rondo (11.0-4.5-14.1) is well on his way to leading the NBA in assists. Shaq (11.2-6.4) has been better than expected in his 22 minutes per game plus Davis (11.0-5.4) is having his best season. This is just a "gut feel" call. Philly has surprising depth with Williams (12.0), Meeks (9.4) and Turner (7.2-4.8) joining Iquodala and Holiday on the perimeter. Hawes (6.1-4.8) starts at center with forwards Young (12.3-4.6), Nocionmi (8.2) and Speights (5.3-5.8) all contributing. The Celtics have to slip up every once and awhile and I'm calling for that to happen tonight. Small play on the 76ers as a very 'live dog!'
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +1.81/+5½ over Boston
We’re going to split this up and play the 76ers both on the money line and point spread. What we have here is a very undervalued 76er squad because of a 7-14 record. This is not a 7-14 team and plenty of wins are forthcoming. A close look reveals a Philly team that has won four of its last five games with only loss over that stretch coming against Atlanta by five. They’ve won its last two games by a combined 40 points and what’s even more interesting is that the Sixers have scored just 10 less points than its opponents this season, which is another indicator of a deceiving record. Philly has also won five straight at home and this is a game you know they’ll be completely jacked up for. The C’s have owned them over the years but Boston is not in a good spot. They’re playing the tail end of back-to-backs and they’re playing a team that ranks fifth in the Association defending the three-pointer. A Celtic team with weakened legs and that’s not healthy to begin with is ripe to get beat here by a team that is much better than its record suggests. Play: Philadelphia +5½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Philadelphia +1.81 (Risking 1 unit).
Stan Lisowski
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly is on a 6-0 run their last 6 games ATS. Boston is off of a game last night at home vs. Denver. The home team is now 16-5 straight up in 76er games this season.
Joel Tyson
Indianapolis at TENNESSEE
For your free play, have to play the Colts-Titans game to hold under the posted total.
For one thing, the Tennessee offense has been struggling mightily, scoring just 6 points in their last 2 games, and just 39 total points over their last 4 games.
As have to factor in Peyton Manning's recent interceptions woes which could lead to stalled drives this evening.
Finally, both series meetings last year did stay under the posted total, and 9 of the last 10 series meetings dating back to 2005 have also stayed under the posted price.
Look for the under to come through once again tonight.
3♦ UNDER
Craig Davis
New Jersey at DALLAS
As for tonight's free play, I'm going to the NBA with the Mavericks/Nets to go UNDER the posted total.
Vegas is absolutely begging us to take the over with such a low total, but I'm not biting.
If you've noticed the scores of the most recent Dallas games combined with the scores of the Nets games, you'd almost be crazy not to take the over, right? Wrong.
It's a sucker bet and I'm not falling for it. The Mavericks are still (in my opinion) the best defensive team in the league, allowing 92 PPG while allowing opponents to shoot 42% from the field.
Yes, I realize they allowed over 100 in their last two games vs. Sacramento and Golden State, but the Kings game was in Sacto after a very tough game in Utah. They got a little tired, and understandably so considering they aren't the youngest team in the NBA.
But I'm using that Utah game as a gauge for tonight. Dallas beat the Jazz 93-81 last week because they absolutely locked down Deron Williams and Al Jefferson... and that's what I'm expecting from the Mavs tonight.
Dallas loves keeping point guards and big men in check and they feel as if they can play solid defense against those positions, they can lock down the offense and win more games than they lose. So far so good.
Granted, they have had two high scoring games in a row, but I believe they are settled back down and happy to be home where they have gone UNDER the total in 16 of their last 21. Dallas wins and keeps New Jersey under 90 tonight.
Play the UNDER as your free play of the day, and don't forget about that 100-dime winner #9 in a row.
3♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett,
New Jersey (+10') at DALLAS
Free play for Thursday on the Nets plus the points at Dallas.
Dallas is rolling strong with a 10 game winning streak, while New Jersey comes into this game having lost their last 5 games.
The linemakers are making you pay an inflated price to back the Mavs, and the Mavericks have indeed struggled with the inflated price the last 2 times out, failing both as the favorite.
Dallas is just 4-6-2 against the spread at home this season, and they did fail to cover the last time the Nets came calling on the Mavericks in the Big "D".
G-Man gonna take the double-digits with the Nets to sneak inside of the back door in this one.
1♦ NEW JERSEY
Derek Mancini
New Jersey at DALLAS (-10')
There's simply no reason to believe the Nets stand a chance here. The guys in Vegas are doing everything they can to get you to play the Nets, but no one is buying it, and with good reason. New Jersey is in the midst of a tremendous slump, unable to do anything constructive on either end of the court... And that's bad news against one of the hottest (if not the hottest) team in the NBA.
Dallas has won 10 straight (7-3 ATS), and has done so with impressive effort on both ends, averaging a solid 100 ppg on 47% shooting, while holding the opposition to 92 ppg on 42% shooting. But you can just throw those numbers out the window when talking about the Nets, because I'd be surprised if they shot better than 40%. We all saw what Boston did to them (at home) 4 days ago, holding them 75 points! We also saw what the Hawks did to them in their last one, dropping 116 points on them while shooting 60%! Guys, the Mavs are hotter than either one of those teams, and it'll show tonight.
Finally, the match ups are all wrong for the Nets, as Brook Lopez is going to have trouble with the Haywood/Chandler combo. Both centers are athletic enough to hang with Lopez, and it won't get any easier for the only other threat on this Nets team - former Mav Devin Harris. For all their age with Kidd back there, the Mavs play excellent perimeter D, and that's a testement to Carlisle and his system. Long story short, the Nets may look attractive to some at this price, but not me and not against the Mavs in this spot. Lay it with Dallas over New Jersey Thursday.
2♦ DALLAS
Stephen Nover
New Jersey (+10') at DALLAS
I am 8-5 on my last 13 free NBA selections and tonight like the Nets to cover at Dallas.
New Jersey isn't a very good team. But the Nets are much improved from a year ago. They are better-coached and are giving a better effort. Brooks Lopez is one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference and Devin Harris and Jordan Farmar are one of the better point guard duos in the league.
Dallas is having a great season, but the Mavericks are not a strong home favorite. Despite playing mainly against easy competition, the Mavericks' average home victory in 12 matchups this season is by less than six points.
When playing against an opponent that has a winning percentage of .400 or less, the Mavericks are 4-20-2 ATS. The Nets usually are more competitive versus Western Conference teams. They have covered in 12 of their last 15 meetings versus West clubs.
The Mavericks have a much more challenging game on tap when they host Utah on Saturday. The Nets can go all out since they aren't in action again until Sunday.
2♦ NEW JERSEY
Chuck O'Brien
Orlando at PORTLAND
For Thursday’s complimentary selection in the NBA, take the Magic-Blazers game in Portland UNDER the total.
Both of last year’s meetings between these teams played low, with final scores of 92-83 and 102-87, pushing the under to 11-5-1 in the last 17 series clashes and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in the Rose Garden.
The Magic have been hit hard by a flu virus that has ripped through the locker room, which is largely the reason they’ve scored 85 and 74 points in their last two games (losses to the Bucks on the road and Hawks at home). The virus hasn’t infiltrated Orlando’s defense, though, as the Magic have held their last six opponents under 100 points. And over the last five contests, Orlando is yielding just 84.8 points per game on just 43.7% shooting.
Portland has also been playing tremendous defense, keeping seven straight foes (and nine of the last 10) under triple digits. Over this 10-game stretch, the Blazers are giving up an average of 84.1 ppg – and five of those games were against such high-powered offenses as Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Boston and Phoenix.
So why is Portland just 3-7 over in its last 10 games? The offensive production hasn’t matched the defensive intensity. Prior to posting back-to-back home wins over the Clippers (100-91) and Suns (106-99), Portland had scored 96 points or less in seven straight games. And despite barely getting over the 203½-point total in Tuesday’s win over Phoenix, the Blazers are still 8-3-1 “under” in their last 12 home contests.
Portland is also on “under” runs of 5-2 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0 against the Southeast Division, while Orlando carries low-scoring trends of 10-4 on the road, 4-1 overall, 34-16-1 against the West and 17-8 on Thursday.
3♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Georgetown (-2') at TEMPLE
For my freebie, this is a damn good Georgetown team that can adapt to any style of opponent and still come out on top. That’s why I’ll lay the small points with the Hoyas in this one and look for them to beat Temple by about 10 tonight.
The Hoyas had a defensive battle on Saturday and beat Utah State 68-51 as 9 ½-point favorites and the game prior to that they went into St. Louis and beat Missouri in an offensive slugfest, 111-102 in a pick-em contest. They have opened the season with eight straight wins and they are 6-1 ATS.
Georgetown is shooting 51 percent from the floor this season and they are winning the rebounding edge by eight every night out. Austin Freeman is a bona fide superstar for the Hoyas and he can go off and get 25 points just about any night he wants.
Temple has trouble scoring at times, as evidenced by their 57-50 loss to Cal as 4 ½-point favorites. This team also struggled to beat a very average Seton Hall team this season and fell to Texas A&M in a low-scoring affair, 54-51.
Georgetown is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last five on the highway. I’ll lay the points and expect to see an easy win and cover tonight. Play the Hoyas.
5♦ GEORGETOWN
Michael Cannon
Georgetown (-2) at TEMPLE
I am on a 9-3 run with my last 12 free plays as the Clippers grab the cash for us last night!
Take the Georgetown Hoyas for the road win and cover over Temple.
Georgetown has been shooting the lights out from beyond the arc in the early going this season. But the Hoyas are also versatile enough to get it done when they go cold from 3-point range, as was the case on Saturday against Utah State.
Utah State held the Hoyas to a season-worst 2 for 9 from beyond the arc, but Georgetown still won 68-51.
That’s a testament to the versatility Georgetown possesses and why it’s going to get it done on the road tonight.
Temple is a good defensive team, but so is Georgetown. The difference here is the Hoyas have plenty of offensive talent to carry them against good defensive teams while the Owls do not.
Take Georgetown for the win and cover.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Scott Delaney
Georgetown (-2') at TEMPLE
I know Temple has been a defensive beast this season, but I like Georgetown and its physical nature to wear the Owls down and to come away with a solid road win.
As tenacious as the Owls might be, I'm much more confident in the way the Hoyas have been firing from the field, particularly from beyond the arc.
Three-point shooting was the lifeline for Georgetown's offense through November, as the Hoyas shot 44.9 percent from beyond the arc and hit at least eight treys in six of their first seven games.
Temple has played an impressive non-conference schedule to date, I admit that, but I'd take the Hoyas over any one of the Owls' previous opponents.
Georgetown ranks 38th in the nation with 79.1 points per game, but has scored 80 or more in four of its eight games thus far.
Play the Hoyas here.
1♦ GEORGETOWN