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Winnipeg vs. OttawaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OttawaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets have the better overall record, and there's no question, they're playing some of their best hockey, having won three games in a row, but the Senators have been solid lately as well, going 3-1 over their last four contests, and have the benefit of playing at home on Thursday. There's also a strong motivational angle at play in this spot.
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That motivational angle is Sens forward Bobby Ryan being left off the US Olympic team roster yesterday. Ryan called US GM Brian Burke's reasoning being his lack of intensity 'gutless'. Needless to say, Ryan should be fired up to prove Burke wrong tonight, and I suspect the rest of the team will rally around him as well.
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The Jets have posted some nice road wins this season, but are still just 9-10-1 away from home. They're just 1-3 in their last four on the highway.
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The Senators achilles heel has been their goaltending, but they've improved in that department at home lately, posting a shutout win over the Penguins last week and allowing just one goal in a win over the high-flying Capitals this past Sunday. In fact, they've reeled off three straight impressive home wins over the Pens, Bruins, and Caps, outscoring those three by a wide 12-4 margin.
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Ottawa took two of three meetings from Winnipeg last season, outscoring the Jets 8-3 in the process. I believe we're looking at a short line in favor of the home side in this spot.
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Golden State Warriors +5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Warriors are the hottest team in the league right now. They have won six consecutive games, averaging over 102 points per game during that stretch. Whats most impressive about this recent run is the fact that the Warriors defense has held opponents to a mere 91 points per game in their last five. With Golden State playing so well on both ends of the court, and Miami coming off a road game I think there is a lot of value on the Warriors as an underdog.
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Miami is 6-19 ATS in home games when coming off a game on the road. The Heat squeaked by Denver in their last outing, and Lebron James won't have his full supporting cast in this matchup against the Warriors. Golden State comes into this game with a 13-4 ATS record against teams who average nine or more steals per game. The Warriors should easily get by Miami's defense, and I don't think the Heat can score enough points to cover the spread against a Warriors team that is playing so well right now.
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Washington vs. Arizona StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington +10½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The PAC 12 is opening their season tonight with a pretty full schedule. The game that caught my eye was Washington visiting Arizona State tonight. The Huskies are always a bit of a mystery but I am not sure there is a huge talent discrepancy between these two teams. Road teams have held their own in this series with a 16-6 ATS record and if Huskies SG C.J. Wilcox is shooting it well he can keep them in this one all by himself.
Nick Parsons
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Oregon St vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -13
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Oregon State is 1-3 this year as a dog.
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The Beavers lost their last two road game to lesser, DePaul and Hawaii.
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Colorado is 11-2 with its losses coming to ranked Baylor and Oklahoma State.
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The Buffs are 9-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 14.3 ppg.
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Colorado is 5-0 ATS after scoring 77+ points in prior game. Last was 84-70 win over Georgia
Jack Jones
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Alabama -16½
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Wanting to send out A.J. McCarron and the rest of the seniors on this team with one final victory, you have to expect the Crimson Tide to show up for this contest despite missing out on the BCS Championship. Also, Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has dogged the SEC defenses on a couple of different occasions, so Alabama will be motivated to make him eat his words as well. With arguably the best head coach in college football in Nick Saban, the Tide figure to show up for this one and come in well prepared.
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Alabama would be favored against any team in the country despite the fact that it is not playing in the championship game, which says a lot about how good this team is. It has put together an 11-1 season with its only loss coming to Auburn on a phantom 109-yard missed field goal return for a touchdown. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 27.4 points per game this season, which is one of the best marks in the country. Oklahoma has been just mediocre away from Norman, only outscoring foes 29.2 to 28.7, or by an average of 0.5 points per game.
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Alabama is better on both sides of the football in this one. It is putting up 38.7 points and 448.9 yards per game to rank 37th in the country in total offense. It is giving up just 11.3 points and 274.7 yards per game to rank 5th in the country in total defense. Oklahoma is a one-dimensional offensive team that relies heavily on its running game. Well, Alabama has the perfect antidote, ranking 11th in the country against the run at 108.3 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. The only team that it struggled against stopping the run was Auburn, which has run on everyone.
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Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA) – good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an excellent defense (<=280 YPG) after seven-plus games are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Oklahoma is 0-7 against the spread in its last seven games vs. SEC opponents. Alabama is 35-18 against the number in its last 53 road games following one or more consecutive ATS losses. Bet Alabama Thursday.
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Oklahoma +17 -110 over AlabamaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Crimson Tide is clearly the better team but something can be said for these teams that are being offered serious wood. The two biggest dogs in this year’s slate of Bowl games not only covered, they won outright. As a 13½-point pooch, Texas Tech defeated Arizona State 37-23 and last night as a 17-point pup, UCF defeated Baylor by 10. It would appear that being disrespected by being offered a crooked number provides a ton of motivation for these athletes. Besides, rumors of Oklahoma's decline as a national power are unfounded. The Sooners have outstanding offensive skill, a defense that rapidly improved all season and they have been a force on all three sides of the ball this year. The Sooners responded to being disrespected as a 10-point underdog (the most points they had ever received in the series with Oklahoma State) in the Big-12 Championship game and this is the most points they’ve ever received in a Bowl game.
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Sharps and squares alike will be sending it in on the Tide here. Every article, prediction and breakdown on this game suggests that the Sooners are outclassed here but as Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”. When you wager on Alabama, you are paying a premium to do so because they are the most popular team in college football and they get more backing than any team in the country. The Crimson Tide have not been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years. Alabama has been occasionally excellent but mostly inconsistent and by no means are they a well-oiled machine. All of the pressure is on Alabama here. This is a Tide squad that played one of the softest schedules in school history and they are not even close to being as battle tested as they have been in the past. Laying significant weight in a BCS Bowl game is typically not in the winner's playbook and there isn't enough separation between these two to warrant an exception.
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Winnipeg +123 over OTTAWAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Senators are giving up more than one full goal per game more than they did in the 2013 lockout-shortened season and currently sit 26th in the NHL in goals against, which is 12 spots lower than where they found themselves at the end of last season. The Senators are giving up a whopping 34.3 shots against per game and Craig Anderson isn't consistently bailing out his team like he was a season ago and there hasn't been the performance growth amongst some of the young defensemen that Ottawa was counting on. The Senators have stepped it up lately with three wins in four games but as the chalk, they have proven over and over again to be untrustworthy.
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Jets coach Claude Noel says Al Montoya will get the start here. Montoya has been stellar in his last two starts and appears to be supplanting Andrej Pavelec as the Jets' top goaltending option. Winnipeg has won three in a row over Minnesota, Colorado and Buffalo and scored six times on the Wild. The Jets are as healthy right now as they have been all season and that makes their defense core with Dustin Byfuglien, Zach Bogosian, Tobias Enstrom rookie Jacob Trouba and Mark Stuart among the best in the league in moving the puck out efficiently. Trouba is a star in the making. He’s been playing excellent hockey and seems to be gaining confidence with each game. Trouba has registered eight points in the Jets' last 13 games. The Jets are not an easy out. They are physically tough, they’re quick and they’re improving with each passing week. Remember, Winnipeg is a team from the West that has more points playing in a tougher conference than Ottawa does playing in the East.
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DALLAS -½ +132 over MontrealFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Dallas is without question one of the most undervalued teams in the NHL. Over their past eight games, Dallas has faced the Avs twice, the Kings twice, Nashville, Vancouver, San Jose and St. Louis. Dallas picked up 12 out of a possible 16 points against that difficult set of opponents. Against the Blues and Kings in its last two games, Dallas picked up three out of a possible four points and outshot that pair, 62-47. Unlike the Canadiens, Dallas is in peak form and in a good scheduling spot they get our endorsement.
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The Canadiens have dropped two straight and six of their past 10. They blew a 4-1 lead against Carolina on Tuesday and will conclude a tough, six-game road trip here before hosting the Senators on Saturday night. The Habs are not in top form right now and they figure to be at least a little fatigued. In order to beat the Stars in Dallas, it’s likely going to take a top effort and we’re not sure the Habs have that in them for this one. There is nothing favorable about backing a team concluding a long road and that is stepping up in class.
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St. Mary’s +7 over GONZAGAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Zags are a West Coast Conference force that not only has an outstanding pedigree but that also comes into this game ranked #24 in the country after opening the year with 12-2 record. The Zags are 2-0 in conference play but it’s far too early to measure what they’ve done because of a rather weak out-of-conference schedule. Gonzaga’s two toughest games this season came against K-State and Dayton and the Zags lost them both. Now the Zags will play another very good squad and will do so without two of their starters in Gary Bell Jr., and Sam Dower.
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Even without the best ball-screen guard in college basketball (Matthew Dellavedova), Randy Bennett's Gaels are still getting it done. Benneett is a tremendous evaluator of talent and sees not where a player is, but where he is going. For example, Brad Waldow came to Saint Mary’s three years ago as a project. He’s now one of the better low-post scorers on the West Coast, averaging 17.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Stephen Holt was under-recruited yet has the size, skill set and toughness to play at any level. Bennett's formula is simple: Get a good shot every possession, take care of the ball and limit your opponent to one shot. The Gales shoot 48.2 percent from the field and 43.6 percent from 3-point range while out-rebounding their opponents by eight boards a contest. They also do an excellent job of defending the perimeter, holding opponents to 27.6 percent shooting beyond the arc. The Gaels are a fundamentally sound basketball team that has a chance to go far this season. We rarely back a team receiving 10 points or less when we don’t think that team has a chance to win outright. Well, the Gaels are certainly good enough to pull off this upset and the 7-points being offered is plenty of insurance to prompt us to step in.
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Pass NBAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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California / Stanford Under 142FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Line: This line opened at 143 and quickly shot down to it's current level. It would not surprise me to see it go down further although predicting those things this year has not been as easy as in the past..
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Why We Bet It: Stronger than average pace for both teams but conference play will see lower tempo and this number is higher than previous meetings between these two. Both squads strong with offensive rebounding should limit 2nd attempts tonight and the Cardinal has been very good getting back on D for transition attempts. As always we don't talk about everything that makes this a play although Trenders will be happy to know that this series has been mostly and UNDER series and Cal road games have been as well. I have a fair number here of 136.4 and good enough to play..
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Biggest Concerns: The point differential of 2.5 to 3 possessions at the end of the game could do us in here and is the nightmare for those of us that do play Unders. We will hope for a tight game or a Stanford romp and we will also hope that Cal can keep the Cardinal 3 Point % Under control..
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Added Notes: You can play this one down to 139 verses my number..
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St. Mary's at GonzagaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Gonzaga -7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Gonzaga has played at such a high level for well over a decade now, they are hard to even be considered as a mid-major. Gonzaga wins 20+ games like clockwork every single season, and are on their way again off to a 12-2 start. They rarely get tripped up at home, and have started the season at 8-0 here. St. Mary's has been chasing Gonzaga for several years, and while the Gaels are 10-3 to start the season, this is not the same caliber team that has been closing in on the Zags. The lack of quality wins, and questionable losses, leaves this team a bit overrated at this point of the season. Gonzaga is for real, and the line here is more reflective of better St. Mary teams over the past few years - not this year's version. Play on Gonzaga.
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Alabama vs. OklahomaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AlabamaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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So much has been made of the egg Alabama laid when they played Utah (31-17) here after losing to Auburn in the SEC Championship Game. This time they didn't make it that far as Auburn once again turned the Tide on its heels. Nick Saban has been brought to task and he wants this Alabama team win something! Oklahoma enters having won their last three in spite of using two different quarterbacks with different styles. Bell at 6'6” 260 pounds will find the Crimson's defensive line quick and strong. Look for senior A.J. McCarron (26 TD, 5 Int) to close the year with a bang.
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Bowling Green -4FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Still some value with the Falcons on their homecourt in this one. IPFW is solid in certain spots but odds makers have caught up to them now. They were blown out by Eastern Kentucky in last game which was at home. Bowling Green beat North Dakota 79-69 a month ago.....at home....I expect a similar result in this game.
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Eastern Kentucky -8FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Glenn Cosey is the best player in the Ohio Valley Conference. He leads four starters back for Eastern Kentucky. This Colonel team just won at IPFW 90-68 in their last game on the 29th of December. That was impressive. Meanwhile, Easten Illinois lost at IPFW by 21 points 10 days ago. Chris Oliver, a 6'8" transfer from Northern Iowa is now playing for EIU and had a double double for the Panthers in a 70-69 win over Tennessee State. Reggie Smith, a transfer from UNLV and Marquette before that is a guard that can make a difference if he is hot. Unfortunately for EIU his shooting percentage is poor. Eastern KY will battle Belmont for the top seed in this Conference as they are clearly the top two teams. I look for EKU to get up by a few at the half and then opening things up for a 15 point road win.
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Marshall vs AkronFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Akron -11FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marshall Thundering Herd travel to Akron to take on the Zips on Thursday night. Marshall is 5-8 SU overall this year while Akron comes in with a 7-5 SU overall record on the season. Marshall is 10-22 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Marshall is 6-25 SU and 8-20 ATS last 3 years on the road. Marshall is 6-20 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Akron is 33-3 SU and 17-7 ATS last 3 years when playing at home and going back even further 29-10 ATS last 39 home games. Marshall is 0-6 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 85.8 points per game. Akron is 5-0 SU at home this year where they are scoring 77.2 points per game while allowing only 61.8 points per game. Favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Akron tonight!
Tom BartonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay vs ClevelandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Green Bay -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phoenix have come out of the gates absolutely on fire and now get into Horizon league play with an opponent they have beaten in 3 straight meetings. Green Bay has won 9 of their first 12 games so far and many in impressive fashion. In fact their losses may be more impressive than their wins which is saying a lot. Green Bay dropped games to Harvard, Wisconsin and an impressive Eastern Michigan team. Those teams are a combined 32-6. Green Bay is averaging 77 points per game and are pulling down a very good 38 boards per game. The Phoenix have won their last 3 games by 27,16 and 50 points and have covered this number in 7 of their 9 wins. The Vikings meanwhile are 2-5 on the road and have beaten just one team all season with a winning record and have lost 6 of the last 7 in this arena. Last year Green Bay won by 7 and 27 and while I don't see a 27 point win again history repeats itself here with a solid Green Bay cover.
Jeff Alexander
Utah +3½
Bottom Line: Utah will be out for revenge tonight as it looks to pay Oregon back for knocking it out of last season's Pac-12 Tournament. The Utes are a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (win percentage above 80%) over the last 2 seasons. They are also 10-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse. Utah is 11-0 at home this season and 16-6 ATS as a home underdog or pickem under Krystkowiak. Bet the Utes.