John Wilson
Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -17
That's probably unlikely. And neither is an Oklahoma win over Alabama. It has nothing to do with Saban winning big games and Stoops unable to do so. It's just that this Alabama team is a lot better than this Oklahoma team.
Alabama's sense of letdown after not getting to the BCS title game has to be stark. We've seen them come into the Sugar Bowl flat before—in 2008, they lost to Florida in the SEC title game after going 12-0. Then they lost to Utah 31-17, clearly still reeling from the earlier loss. On the other hand, 2010's 9-3 team showed no letdown as they spanked Michigan State 49-7. That shows again how Alabama might respond in one of two ways. After winning two straight championships, it's hard to see them thinking about making the bowl the first game of next year's campaign. Indignation and overconfidence might be the dominant emotions.
Oklahoma on the other hand responded to their 2nd loss by playing their best 3-game series of the season, and finishing with their best win, beating Oklahoma State on the road. If Oklahoma plays the way they did during that stretch, and Alabama counters with their final 3-game stretch? It's a 6-point Oklahoma win.
Can they do it? There are just too many factors pointing Alabama's way for me to override that with a stab at untangling the teams' emotional state. But I do think Oklahoma will have trouble keeping up with Alabama maybe for 2 quarters, but don't have enough offense to stay in the game.Bob Stoops coming up empty yet again, but this time getting respect for it.
Dave Price
Golden State Warriors +5
This has been a terrific spot to fade the Heat, who are home following a four-game road trip. Consider that Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games after playing at least three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season because of their commitment at the defensive end. They have held four opponents below 40% shooting during their six-game win streak. Miami is 14-2 at home but only 6-10 ATS in these games as the defending champs remain incredibly overvalued. Besides, the Warriors are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Warriors are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami. Take the points.
Teddy Covers
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
New York vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Knicks aren’t just losing these days – they’re getting blown out on a nightly basis, losing three straight by a dozen or more, including a pair of ugly losses to the sub .500 Raptors and a 29 point home throttling at the hands of Oklahoma City.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
And the scary thing for Knicks fans is that they’ve faced a remarkably weak schedule so far this season! Only two of the Knicks last 16 opponents has a record above .500.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
When they’ve stepped up in class against the elites of the Western Conference, it’s been downright ugly: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, including a 120-89 home loss to the Spurs when these two teams met last month! The expected return of Carmelo Anthony to the lineup is a complete non-factor – ‘Melo steals everyone else’s shots, and the team plays no better with him on the floor than without him.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Spurs are a great double digit favorite because they don’t let up with a lead. Greg Popovich has a stellar bench; one of the deepest teams in the NBA, allowing San Antonio to extend leads even without their backups on the court during fourth quarter blowouts.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
I’m not worried about a letdown here, even with the Clippers coming to town on Saturday, with this Tony Parker quote serving as solid evidence: “Now we have to take advantage, no letdown.” The hapless Knicks aren’t likely to offer much resistance.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers getting it done against the Michigan Wolverines, laying a small number at Williams Arena on the campus of the U of M.
Let the newest Big Ten era begin for the Golden Gophers, as coach Richard Pitino opens his inaugural conference season with Minnesota tonight at home, while his troops ride in on a six-game winning streak, including Saturday's 65-44 victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Minnesota's 11-2 non-conference roll this season finds the Gophers leading the Big Ten in steals per game (8.8) and free throw percentage (.760), and ranks second in turnover margin (+3.8).
Tonight the Gophers get a Michigan team that is 8-4 after closing out 2013 with two straight wins. Michigan, which plays three of its first five conference games on the road, hasn't played away from Ann Arbor since Dec. 21, when it beat Stanford in New York, as part of the Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Invitational at Barclays Center.
This is never an easy place for visitors to play, and with the hype and excitement surrounding the Gophers this season, I have to believe they'll be up for this game and will get it done by at least six tonight.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Suns minus the points at home over the Grizzlies.
Memphis won round one of the series, taking a 19 point decision on their home floor in early December, but with losses in 7 of their last 10 both straight up and against the spread, it is hard to make a convincing case for this road dog tonight in the Valley of the Sun.
Phoenix is a hearty 11-4 straight up on their home court, and a pretty solid 10-4-1 against the spread in those home games this year. The Suns also enter play tonight with wins in 10 of their last 12 since that ugly loss at Memphis on December 3rd.
Revenge time for Phoenix, lay the wood!
2♦ PHOENIX
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the OKC Thunder over the Brooklyn Nets for the same reason I gave you the Clippers over the Bobcats as your free play of the day yesterday.
The Clippers came into last night’s game pissed off, having lost three of their previous four including an embarrassing blowout loss at home vs. Phoenix the night before.
After going to the locker room deadlocked, someone must have said something or literally lit a fire under some of the players’ butts… because they were a completely different team in the final 24 minutes.
They really stepped up the defensive intensity (which is mostly about effort) and outscored the ‘Cats 25-13 in the third quarter and 31-16 in the 4th quarter. What looked like it was going to be another tough game for the Clips turned into a blowout.
I see the same thing happening tonight in Oklahoma City as the Thunder are not happy with how the Portland game went the other night. After leading by as many as 16, the Thunder went into a bit of a funk, forgetting to play tough defense in the second half (and especially the 4th quarter) and they watched Portland not only come back… but ultimately take the lead and win the game.
Only OKC’s second home loss of the year, but considering they don’t have Westbrook, it wasn’t a horrible loss. Maybe the way they lost was bad, but losing to Portland without your starting PG and second leading scorer isn’t anything to be embarrassed about.
If you want to talk about embarrassing… look at Brooklyn. They enter tonight coming off a blowout loss at Indiana and at San Antonio… and it’s not going to get any easier tonight. Unfortunately for them, they catch OKC on a bad night.
Take the Thunder to roll by 17 tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Brad Wilton
Huge game for the Utes tonight in Salt Lake City, as into town comes conference-rival Oregon, and not only are the Ducks coming to town, but they come to town with a perfect 12-0 mark.
A closer look at Oregon's 12-0 mark shows 9 of the 12 wins coming in Eugene, and only one true road game thus far. Tough assignment on the road tonight, as Utah is out of the gate at 11-1, and their lone loss comes by a basket at Boise State 6 games ago as the +10 point pup.
The host in this series has won 4 in a row and 6 of their past 7 meetings straight up.
Utah is 5-1 against the spread at home this season, and getting a few points at home in a game in which they are playing a team that has not lost this season is exactly the type of play that I am all about.
Take the Utes in the dog role.
3♦ UTAH
The Duke's Sports
Alabama -17
This can go two ways for Alabama: the 2008 Crimson Tide can emerge when they lost to Fla in the SEC Title game and came out flat to get pushed around against Utah in their bowl game; however, I see the 2010 'Tide showing up. That year under Saban, they lost to Auburn in their last regular season game and went into the bowl with an attitude to make a statement. And they did in a 49-7 demolition of Michigan State. Tonight, the 'Tide should come out firing on all cylinders against an Oklahoma defense that has looked downright mediocre at times, especially against the run. The smash mouth 'Tide can pound the rock and super efficient QB McCarron (26 TD/5 INT) can burn over eager safeties rippling down in the box,like Okie likes to do, with speedy wide outs on play action. And on the offensive end, the Sooners are without two offensive line starters. Sure, the two headed monster QB situation worked against Okie State but Saban and his top ranked defense had more than enough time to prepare for the spread with QB Bell and the zone read with QB Knight. 'Tide 4-0 ATS in bowls and 5- 1 ATS vs Big 12. Stoops talent poll has dwindled since his early days at Norman. He's 0-5 ATS in his last 5 vs SEC teams and has lost 6 of his last 7 January tilts. 'Bama rolls.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Southern Utah/ North Dakota Under 143: Ok let's first start by saying that North Dakota is a bad defensive team, as they come in allowing 83.7 ppg on 53.5% shooting for the year, but that should not matter at all as they will be taking on a truly pathetic offensive team in the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. SU Comes in ranked 351st in the nation in scoring at 56.6 ppg and they are 351st in shooting at 35.2%. The Thunderbirds have yet to score more than 59 points vs a division 1 foe and their games vs division 1 teams have averaged just 131.5 ppg. Southern Utah is bad on defense, but North Dakota has been rather average on offense of late, averaging just 69 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams shoot poorly from the FT line and from long range and neither team is really plays an uptempo pace. These teams met twice last year and 121 and 129 points were scored in those games. SU should be held to less than 6o points once again, while ND will put up no more than 75. I look for no more than 135 points scored in this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
Colorado/ Oregon State Under 147: Oregon State has been involved in some high scoring games this year, but they have also been involved in some low scoring games and with this being a league game, I expect the latter to happen, especially with the way Colorado has played defense this year. The Buffaloes have allowed just 67 ppg on 42.5% shooting, while allowing just 66.4 ppg at home. Oregon State put up big numbers earlier in the year on offense, but off late they have slowed down a bit, averaging just 70.8 ppg in their last 5 games. On defense the Beavers allow 74 ppg, but on just 42.5% shooting and they should be able to play good enough defense in this one to keep the Buffs from scoring a whole bunch, OSU would like to run, but Colorado doesn't run all that much and with their game at their place I expect them to dictate pace here. No more than 140 here.
River City Sharps
Monmouth PK
Both of these teams come into this game struggling as Siena is sitting at 5-8 on the season while host Monmouth is 6-7. Siena has played the tougher schedule to this point and has a decent win over Bonaventure to their credit, while Monmouth really has no good wins. That said, Siena has really struggled on the defnsive end, giving up 78 points of the road and 82 ppg to conference foes. Monmouth shoots almost 39% per game from behind the 3-point arc at home and Siena has struggled defending the three. With this game at a Pick, we are going to side with the home team and our numbers all indicate a Monmouth win.
Harry Bondi
ALABAMA -17 over Oklahoma
This line has exploded as Alabama backers have driven it from 14 to 17 over the last two days. The key question to this game is which Alabama team shows up? The team off a gut-wrenching loss to bitter rival Auburn who is disappointed that they are not playing in the National Championship Game and mail it in as they did in a similar situation in 2008 after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide went to the Sugar Bowl and got thumped 31-17 by Utah. But we don't envision that happening again as the Tide simply has too much talent for an Oklahoma squad that got smashed the last time they were a 17 point underdog 41-12 at Baylor. Roll Tide!
OC Dooley
Warriors +5
Defending league champion Miami is 14-2 overall so far this season in front of the home fans in South Beach (114 points per game average last five home games), yet they opened offshore as a relatively small four-point favorite which to me spoke volumes. One of the reasons for the low spot is that Golden State pulled off an OUTRIGHT upset in their most recent visit to Miami and the Warriors as a team this evening enter on a 6-0 WINNING tear. The key to this selection surrounds INJURY news involving Miami as three players including Dwayne Wade (back spasms) are question marks. Last time out Miami guard Norris Cole slammed his face on the hardwood in a fall, while forward Chris Anderson has not played in the past four games due to back problems. The heat are coming off a 4-game road swing out west and my research indicates they have always struggled in their initial game back home. In the past two years when off three consecutive games on the highway, Miami is a disastrous 0-9 ATS/HOME