Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Oregon/ Kansas State Under 75.5: That's right I will go with the under in this one. Near the end of the year this oregon defense was beginning to wear down and they became thin thanks to many injuries, but the break has allowed them to get healthy on that side of the ball. All The talk about the Ducks is usually about the offense, but this team has a pretty good defense as well. The Ducks have allowed just 22 ppg and 382 ypg, while also allowing just 5 yards per play. The Wildcats are also not all about offense as they come in allowing just 21 ppg and 374 ypg, plus just 5.4 yards per play. Both teams also have allowed just 24 ppg vs bowl teams this year. Im not saying that these high powered offense will be kept from finder the endzone too much, but when they do get there it will be on time consuming drive. The defenses are very solid and with the extra prep time will find a way to keep these offense for going buck wild in this one. KSU's games vs bowl teams have averaged 61 ppg, while Oregons have averaged 70. I see this one falling in between the 2 numbers.
Charlie Sports
Wisconson Green Bay at Wright State
Play: Wright State
The (6-7) UW Green Bay Phoenix of the Horizon Conference will take on the (9-4) Wright State Raiders also of the Horizon Conference in 2013 NCAA Basketball action. The underdog is 6-1-1 Against The Spread the last 7 meetings in the series. Wright State has covered 3 of the last 4 ATS vs. UWGB. The Phoenix are on a 3 game winning streak and Wright State has won 4 of 5 straight up. Wright State gets the home cover.
Wunderdog
California at UCLA
Pick: Under 152
It is that time a year again when conference play gets into full swing, and teams begin to truly identify what they are. One aspect of conference play, regardless of what has transpired so far, is that there is a lot more pressure, and a lot more intensity. The Bruins have been living large in their last four games on the offensive end, with 89+ points in each of them, but Cal certainly has a formula to slow down the Bruins. The Bears’ defensive formula has led to 9 of their 12 opponents falling shy of the 70-point mark. While UCLA has been racing up and down the floor, they have only seen one of their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents eclipse the total. With this game being the conference opener, expect the defensive efforts on both sides to take center stage. Take the UNDER.
Andrew Lange
Northern Colorado at Weber State
Recommendation: Weber State
Northern Colorado has played a brutal schedule; one a lot of Big Sky teams would struggle with. But unfortunately for the Bears, traveling to Weber State tonight isn't much of a step down in class. I've been chomping at the bit to step in and support UNC but they've been on the road for nearly the entire non-conference and aren't good enough to compete with strong teams on the highway. The storyline for Northern Colorado is really a simple one. Yes, they were extremely young last year but they led the country in three-point shooting at a staggering 45.1% and seventh in effective FG% at 55.1% and despite all that, they won nine games and were 5-11 in Big Sky play. This year, they are shooting only 30.5% from three and as a result have beaten only one DI team. Now they aren't going to shoot 30% all season but they just so happen to be facing one of the best three-point shooting defenses in the country in Weber State. The Wildcats hold opponents to 25.6% from three but more importantly simply don't allow teams to take them! Less than 20% of their opponents' shots come from deep. When supporting double-digit underdogs it helps that they have a proven track record of being able to knock down shots. Northern Colorado has been the complete opposite and as a result, we'll lay the points in this mismatch.
GoodFella
NY Knicks Pk
Really like the spot here for the Knicks at home. Spurs come in playing their 4th game in 5 days, while the Knicks have played just 1 game in the L/4 days, and I like that they are coming off a home loss their last game too. I look for a hyper motivated effort out of them tonight coming off the disappointing loss to Portland, couple with the fact that they will be "very up" for the Spurs tonight. Yes, Felton is out tonight, but this team is extremely deep & really just means a few more minutes for Kidd and Smith. Nice value here on the NYK at home & I have them winning by 4 points tonight.
Bob Balfe
Kansas State +8
This is going to be a great game. I like Kansas State because I think they will come into this game more focused with a coach who has been in this for many decades going against a coach that could be in the NFL in 24 hours. Kansas State has the best turnover margin in all of College Football. They also have the best punt and kick return numbers and they control the clock which is huge when limiting Oregon’s possessions. This is a very good run defense and Oregon will be without one of their top lineman tonight due to academics. I like Klein at QB for Kansas State and think this team will win outright. Take the Wildcats.
Nelly
Wright State - over UW-Green Bay
Wright State has not played an overly challenging schedule but the Raiders are 5-0 S/U at home and the home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams. UW-Green Bay is likely better than the 6-7 overall record indicates but the Phoenix are yet to win a game away from home, going 0-6 in road and neutral site affairs. After losing both meetings in this series last season in tight games this is a big game for the host and Wright State is 7-3 ATS on the season, facing a very short number with a very tough home court edge. Defensively Wright State is holding foes to just 55 points per game at home this season while holding foes to less than 40 percent shooting overall.
Harry Bondi
SAN ANTONIO (+1.5) over NY Knicks
After a hot start to the season, the Knicks are in a bit of a funk, losing three out of their last four. The problem is on the defensive end, where the team has allowed 100 points or more in seven of its last 10 games. That's bad news against a Spurs team that certainly doesn't mind pushing the pace. The Knicks got Amare Stoudemire back this week, but suffered a big loss when Raymond Felton went out of the lineup. Any time we can get the Spurs at this short of a price we're definitely looking to bet them, especially since they have dominated in non-conference games, going 40-18 ATS the last three seasons. Just like last night when we cashed a ticket with Golden State over the Clippers, this is a wrong-way favorite. Spurs win.
Bryan Power
Gonzaga vs. Pepperdine
Pick: Pepperdine
The start of conference play typically signals an uptick in motivation for most teams, but in the case of Gonzaga and the West Coast Conference, I don't see it Thursday. Though the 'Zags saw their record stretch of 11 straight WCC Titles snapped last year, the team comes into tonight off back to back challenging non-conference games. Laying this many points, with a bullseye on their back, is not a spot I like Gonzaga.
Furthermore, Gonzaga has failed to cover the last six times they have been a road favorite. Prior to going into Stillwater and upsetting Oklahoma State on New Years Eve, 69-68 as a 2.5-point underdog, the Bulldogs had played just one "true" road game this season. It was at Washington State and they failed to cover an 11.5-point spot. So for those "keeping score at home," Gonzaga is 2-0 SU on the road this season with those wins coming by a combined three points. They also recently failed to cover for me, laying 8.5 points at home to Baylor, winning only 94-87. Admittedly, I'm not happy about that result. But, still being objective, I feel this is too many points for Gonzaga to be laying on the conference road this early in the season.
Granted, Pepperdine has not done well against Gonzaga in past seasons. The Waves have beaten the Zags just four times since 1997, the last win coming in 2002 here in Malibu! That's a 22-game win streak with the average margin coming by nearly 20 points per game! But Pepperdine is playing good defense so far this year, giving up just 63.5 points per game on 39% shooting. Obviously, the schedule hasn't been as tough as Gonzaga's, but this is a lot of points for what will be the Waves' biggest home game all season.
Art Aronson
Idaho vs. San Jose St.
Pick: San Jose St.
The (7-5) Spartans are back on home court after two good road wins are looking to atone for two losses in a row at the San Jose event center. I expect the team to be hungry here against a conference opponent that is just under them in the standings in (5-6) Idaho.
San Jose State is 3-2 SU at home this year despite the two previous tough losses to James Madison and Santa Clara.
At home the Spartans are scoring an average of 70.1 points per game while allowing the opponent 66.0 for a differential of +4.1. The team is led by leading scorer James Kinney at 21 points per game. Kinney is coming off his seventh 20 plus performance last time out
The Spartans have ramped it up in conference games this year, going 2-0 SU and ATS; I expect them to make it top priority to win this one too.
Note SJS is 4-1 ATS when playing teams with losing records. Overall the Spartans are a profitable 6-3 ATS this year.
The Idaho Vandals are just 2-4 SU on the road and have beaten just the likes of Seattle and Eastern Washington away from home.
Kyle Baron is leading the way for the Vandals at 16.4 points per game.
The Vandals are averaging 65.5 points per game on the road while allowing its opponent 70.3 a game for a differential of -4.8.
Idaho State won both of last year’s meetings between the two teams; I expect this one to be payback. SJS still owns the all-time series 13-10.
Lay the modest points with San Jose State.
Kyle Hunter
California vs. UCLA
Play: Over 148½
The UCLA Bruins have changed their strategy a bit over the last couple weeks, and it seems to be working well for them. UCLA is pushing the tempo and using their athleticism to get out in transition. The Bruins have scored at least 89 points in four straight games. California also likes to push the tempo, so I don't see anyone slowing this game down. My projections had this game set at 154 points. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The over is 10-3 in UCLA's last 13 home games. Take the over.
Dave Price
UCLA -7
The Bruins will be out for some serious revenge tonight as they look to end a 3-game losing streak to the Golden Bears. UCLA is the more talented team, and I expect it to get the job done on its home floor. UCLA is a staggering 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Howland and has won by an average of 10.5 points in these contests. Cal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 lined games, and I expect its struggles to continue against the revenge-minded Bruins. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
Colorado +12.5
Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins, provided they are undefeated on the season, are 68-30 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 10 or more consecutive wins, provided they are matched up against an opponent that checks in with 2 or more consecutive wins, are 60-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. The numbers support Colorado.
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs +1
The San Antonio Spurs are red hot right now and they should not be an underdog to the New York Knicks tonight. Somehow, this team continues to be undervalued year in and year out. That has been the case again for the 2012-13 season as the Spurs are 26-8 SU and an eye-opening 21-12 ATS.
San Antonio heads into this contest with the Knicks riding a 7-game winning streak. Four of those victories have come by 20 or more points. The Spurs did lose to the Knicks 104-100 at home earlier this season, but that will only have them hungry to avenge that defeat with a road victory of their own tonight.
New York comes in playing its worst basketball of the season. It has lost three of its last four all to mediocre teams with losses to the Blazers, Kings and Lakers. Its only win during this stretch came 99-97 at Phoenix thanks to a buzzer-beater from J.R. Smith. The Knicks really miss PG Raymond Felton (finger), who has missed the last three games and will be out four-to-six weeks.
The Spurs tend to play better on little rest. They are 11-2 ATS when playing their 4th game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. San Antonio is 14-3 ATS off an road win scoring 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 38-13-4 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 41-18-4 ATS in its last 63 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Knicks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
Brandon Lee
Oregon -7.5
Hard to not like Oregon in this one. The Ducks are just as good if not better offensively and I believe they are more than capable of shutting down the Kansas State offense. Oregon simply has too much speed for Kansas State to keep up. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and have won these contest by an average score of 43-25.