Dave Essler
Fairfield +4
Canisius being on such a great ATS roll this season and having already beaten Fairfield at home this season was almost a yellow flag for me. You'd think it'd be more, but with in-season Conference revenge, we've got to go with the Stags in this one. Since that loss to Canisius, Fairfield has rattled off five straight wins, three of them on the road, and on AT St. Joseph's, so we know they're playing good basketball right now. The Stags just play better defense overall, and unless Canisius continues to stroke their three's, this is nothing but a last possession game. Although Canisius is a veteran squad, their travel schedule of late hasn't been kind. Within nine days, they won at Temple, flew to Las Vegas and got crushed, came home for the obligatory cream-puff (Alcorn State) and flew up to lose a close game at Detroit. They've simply got to be a bit weary, whereas the Stags haven't traveled far and have had reasonable separation between games. Canisius was simply an awful team last year, and it's obvious that Jim Baron has taken Parrotta's players to a new level, but they are still Parrotta's players and if Baron can take them from the 300+ worst team in the nation to the near the Top 100, more power to him, but in THIS game it's all about revenge and value, which lies with the road team. We hit our free play with ease last night as UTEP +10.5 pushed Colorado State to the wire, and we'll see if we can't do it again tonight.
Ian Cameron
Marist at Niagara
Play: Niagara
The home team has dominated this series between MAAC conference rivals. Niagara has won the last three home games against Marist by 17 points or more dating back to 2010. The Purple Eagles come in to this game well rested having not played since their road loss at Notre Dame on December 21st. It will mark only the sixth home game this season for Niagara who are 4-1 SU on this floor which includes a win over New Mexico State. Niagara notched a very impressive early season MAAC conference road win against defending MAAC champion Loyola Maryland proving this team is capable when all their pieces are working collectively as a team. The Purple Eagles played one of their toughest non-conference slates they’ve had had in years taking on quality teams like Notre Dame, New Mexico State, and Oregon State and that should have them prepared for MAAC play starting tonight. Niagara junior guard Marvin Jordan accentuates the focus of his team on this conference home game: “It’s go time. It’s time to refocus and get down to business.”
Niagara will have their full lineup intact with the expected return of the aforementioned Jordan joining a solid starting five which includes the likes of Antoine Mason and Juan’ya Green. While Niagara is healthy for this game, Marist will be without starting junior guard Jay Bowie for a second straight game due to a concussion which takes away his 7.5 ppg and 4.7 rpg contributions for tonight. Niagara should have a major edge on the glass as Marist is the worst rebounding team in the MAAC. Marist has also been plagued by turnovers committing over 14 per game and the Red Foxes really struggle to get stops. Marist has given up 75 points per game on 43% shooting in their last five games.
After a decent start to the season, Marist has hit a speed bump losing three in a row against Bucknell, Hartford and Charleston with two of those losses coming by double digit margins. In my opinion, Marist is starting to look like the same old team that has been near or at the bottom of the MAAC for years. It’s worth noting Marist lost to the same Hartford team that Niagara blew out by 15 points earlier this season. This is a great spot for Niagara facing a team they’ve crushed repeatedly on this court in recent years. Lay the points.
Rob Veno
Wisconsin-Green Bay at Wright State
Recommendation: Wright State
Not at all reluctant to lay the short price here with the double revenge minded home team. Wright State has been tenacious on the defensive end this season. Through 13 games they are allowing just 39.8% from the field and according to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, own the Horizon League’s best adjusted defense rating at 93.3 which ranks 67th in the country. The return of 6-10 junior A.J. Pacher to the WSU lineup (missed last three games) figures to be key here as his size will be counted on to help neutralize the Wisconsin-Green Bay twin interior forces of 7-1 center Alec Brown and 6-9 265 pound senior Brennan Cougill. The projected deliberate pace here doesn’t figure to bother either side since these teams prefer slower tempo. Wright State head coach Billy Donlon made a lineup switch last game inserting junior Jerran Young into the starting unit and that could be a key difference maker tonight. Young has led the team in scoring and rebounding the last three games. Each team has played at Idaho this season with the Raiders winning 80-70 and WGB coming up short 72-62. Wright State’s defense, home court (5-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), bench depth (can comfortably go nine deep), addition of Pacher and atonement for last season all add up to a Wright State cover.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 63-39-2 after Wyoming cashed in by a half point last night, and tonight I'm headed to Honolulu for my comp winner, as I like Cal Fullerton over Hawaii.
The Titans hit the island after a successful start to Big West Conference play in front of their hometown faithful. Fullerton (7-5, 1-0 in league play) now opens a three-game road swing this week, beginning with conference newcomer Hawaii tonight.
Fullerton's win streak reached a season-best four games with its victory over UC Santa Barbara last week, and during its run, the Titans are averaging 83.0 points per game while four players are averaging more than than 12 points per game. And it's not just offense that has propelled this team, as Fullerton is limiting opponents to a mere 70.8 ppg.
Meanwhile, Hawaii comes in with the exact same records - 7-5 overall and 1-0 in Big West play - but I don't believe with the same kind of offensive explosiveness the Titans have.
Cal State Fullerton's 83.8 ppg., coming into this the week trailed only No. 5 Indiana's 89.4 ppg., as the highest-scoring team in the nation. The Titans also rank among the top 10 in four other categories: free throw percentage (5th at .786), three-point field goals made per game (7th at 9.2 pg), and three-point percentage (9th at .409).
Fullerton has eclipsed the 90-point plateau four times in seven victories this season, and tonight its offense is going to exploit Hawaii's weak scoring defense that ranks 254th in the land, allowing 70.1 ppg.
The Titans come into this showdown on a 4-1 ATS road streak, while the Warriors have dropped five of six to the books at home and four of five overall. Take the road team here, as the Titans steal this win.
3♦ FULLERTON
Craig Davis
I love catching the Knicks at home when they are playing a good team. It seems as if they step up their intensity level when the better teams come to town, and it doesn't get much better than San Antonio.
I've said this before and I'll say it again... this Spurs team is just trying to get through the regular season as healthy as possible, hoping to get some home games along the way. That's it.
The Spurs are synonymous with playoffs, so it's almost a given that they'll be there in May. So what happens in the other months leading up to May? Well, the Spurs pretty much put it on cruise control and their talent, alone, is usually enough to get them there.
The Knicks are 12-3 on their home court but enter tonight's game having lost two straight... something strange to the Knicks this year. But like I said, they don't get up for teams like Portland... and that's what happens.
Today, San Antonio will bring out the best in them.
Carmelo Anthony returned to the lineup after being sidelined for two games with a knee ailment and scored 45 points on 14 of 24 shooting (and added seven rebounds). Not only that, but big man Amare Stoudemire returned to the lineup in the Knicks last game, scoring six points on 3 of 8 shooting, getting 16 minutes of playing time.
If you like basketball, this will be a game to watch. Or if you're a college football fan, record this game and watch it later --- it will be worth it.
I like the Knicks at home as your free play of the day.
4♦ NEW YORK
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the New York Knicks as they take on the San Antonio Spurs in a TNT marquee matchup.
The Knicks have already claimed the first series meeting this year, winning outright by 4 points as the +5 1/2 point underdogs in San Antonio. Now the Knicks get a shot at the season-series sweep on their home floor.
New York has been slumping just a little of late - losers of their last pair and five of their last eight overall - but they were off last night and should be itching to get back to their winning ways.
The Knicks have won 12 of 15 straight up this season at Madison Square Garden while sporting a 9-6 spread mark.
San Antonio ran their win streak to 6 in a row with the win last night, but we all know how Greg Popovich likes to rest his aging stars when it comes to back-to-back games, especially on the road.
I am backing the Knicks to complete the season-series sweep.
2♦ NEW YORK
Matt Rivers
Thursday's free play comes in the NBA as I back the underdog Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points against the Denver Nuggets.
Even if Ricky Rubio has to sit this one out, I feel the Nuggets extra-effort win over the 17-wins in a row Clippers the other night will have Denver in a bit of a "letdown" mode, as the Nuggets leave room for the T-Wolves to get inside of this impost.
The teams have split the two meetings straight up this season - both meetings thus far in the Twin Cities - and Minny has gone a mighty respectable 9-1 against the spread their last ten visits to the Pepsi Center.
Minnesota was on court in Utah last night getting pasted by a 106-84 count which should have them in a little bit of a nasty mood tonight.
With this line on the rise, just enough wiggle-room here for the Wolves and that 9-1 spread mark in the Mile High City the last ten visits.
Take Minnesota plus the points.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Hollywood Sports
Gonzaga at Pepperdine
Prediction: Pepperdine
The Bulldogs (13-1) are playing in just their third true road game in this one -- and they are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. Gonzaga has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against West Coast Conference opponents. The Bulldogs do come off their nice 69-68 win at Oklahoma State as a 2-point underdog -- but they have then failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a win. Pepperdine (8-5) comes off a 60-59 win versus Fresno Pacific last Friday. The Wave have been reliable in situations like this. They have covered 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. Additionally, Pepperdine is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Take the points with the Wave.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
USC/ Stanford Under 125: Here's a stat for ya. in the last 6 meetings between these teams, the OU line average was just 119.5 with not one of those lines being above 125, yet all 6 games have gone under and by an average of 13 ppg. This has been a very low scoring series of late and I don't see it changing here. Stanford has played some higher scoring games than normal away from home, but they have played 4 teams that play faster than USC (Northwestern, NC State, Missouri and Minnesota), while the one game they played vs a slowdown team (Northern Iowa), just 116 points were scored in that one. USC started the year at home vs Coppin State and in that game 160 points were scored. Now since then they have had 6 home game and those games have averaged just 111 ppg (regulation). That is how this team likes to play. They want the game in the 50's. Stanford allows just 63.6 ppg on 40% shooting overall, while USC allows just 57.4 ppg on 34.8% shooting at home. I feel that at home the Trojans will get the pace where they want it and that should keep this game from reaching the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAY
NEW MEXICO STATE -12.5 over Texas- San Antonio: These Aggies may be just 6-8 on the year, but they are also 5-1 at home and have always played well here. NMSU has gone 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 lined home games, including 3-1 ATS this year, while outscoring their opponents by 14 ppg at home on the year. TXSA has gone 2-5 on the road this year, but each road loss has been by DD and they have been outscored by 18.2 ppg in those losses. Their losses included an 11 points loss to SC Upstate and a 33 point loss to Cal- Santa Barbara and the Aggies are clearly a better team than those two team, especially at home. The Aggies get a slight edge on offense, but a bigger edge on defense, where they have allowed just 58.4 ppg on 35.1% shooting at home, while the Roadrunners have allowed 73.9 ppg on 47.8% shooting overall and 41.1% shooting from long range on the road this year. I just don't expect the Roadrunners to come up with enough stops to keep this one close. Aggies by 17+ here.