Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, January 6,2011

JIM FEIST

IDAHO / HAWAII
PLAY: HAWAII

Hawaii has a good team (9-5) but they are 0-2 in the WAC after the last two games, road losses at Utah State and Nevada. This team always plays best at home, 8-1 at home this season, with six of those wins coming in double-digits. This is a long road trip for Idaho and they've lost at Seattle by 10 and at Montana by 42! A big bounce back spot for the home team. Play Hawaii.

Scott Spreitzer

Stanford at Arizona State
Play on: Arizona State

I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Thursday. Stanford has played five games away from home, including two on neutral courts, with the only win being in overtime at DePaul and including a 33-point loss at Butler. This figured to be a rebuilding season for Stanford which had to replace Landry Fields' scoring and rebounding. Guard Jeremy Green leads the team with a 16.8 average while shooting 46 percent from 3-point range. Forward Josh Owens pulls down 6.2 rebounds per game while averaging 11.2 points. The Cardinal makes great use of the 3-pointer and makes 43.5 percent of them when playing at home. However, in games away from Maples Pavilion, Stanford is hitting only 27.1 percent from beyond the arc. Arizona State is 8-5 even though it's played only five home games. The Sun Devils have won five of their last six games overall. Trent Lockett averages 14.7 points, 6.5 boards and shoots 57.1 percent from the field. Lockett is probable with a toe injury, but backup Carrick Feliz filled in for Lockett against Oregon and scored 19 points and grabbed six rebounds. Senior guard Ty Abbott averages 12.5 points and 6-7 freshman forward Kyle Cain shoots 54.2 percent from the field. Look for Stanford's road woes to continue and go with Arizona State on Thursday night.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings

Despite all evidence to the contrary, this is a good spot for the host Kings, who will be making a rare appearance on TNT. They catch Denver riding a five-game win streak, but playing with no rest off a SU dog win last night in Houston. Kings have revenge for an 18-point loss on New Year's Day in the Mile High City + the Nuggets have dropped 23 of their last 24 here in the Mile High City. Take the points.

Play on: Sacramento

Rob Vinciletti

Montana vs. Northern Colorado
Play: Montana -1.5

Montana is in a nice spot here tonight. They are 21-7 vs losing teams the past few years and 20-8 after allowing 60 or less points, including 6-1 this season. They are in off a conference win and are 17-8 in that role. With 5 or 6 days rest they have won 9 of the past 11 times. North Colorado is 1-4 this season vs teams with a winning record and 2-8 vs teams who play solid defense and allow less than 64 points per game. Six of the seven times they were a dog this season they lost the game. They have not fared well in this series losing 7 of the last 9. Look for Montana to get the win tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami – Ohio +1.16 over Mid Tenn St.

Mid Tennesee State favored here is ludicrous. The Blue Raiders have dominated the Sun Belt Conference over the past few years and their reputation is one of a quality team with a wicked offense. There was even talk about their QB, Dwight Dasher being a Heisman winner candidate. Dasher had a great season last year but he also had a much better cast around him and frankly, he’s just not that good and neither is the Blue Raiders offense. Dasher can run but his decision-making is questionable at best and his throwing ability is even more questionable. Then we have the Blue Raiders defense or lack thereof. The Blue Raiders allowed an average of almost 200 rushing yards against per game. That is horrifying and while the Blue Raiders rankings are not that bad, it’s only because they played against just about every dreg in the nation. This is a bad 6-6 team Mid Tennessee State club that can’t stop anyone and that’s offense is not even that strong either. The Redhawks are a decent club that went 9-4 and the four games they lost were to Florida, Missouri, Cincinnati and Ohio. They also beat Northern Illinois to close out the season and that was a very good win. Miami, Ohio went 1-11 this season and they have a chance to be the first team in NCAA history to go from one win to 10 in a single calendar year. The Redhawks are the better team on offense, they’re a 100 times better on defense and they have every reason in the world to be jacked up for this Bowl game. Play: Miami Ohio +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

Brent Brooks

Montana -1.5

Montana's road games this year have been extremely predictable in hindsight. Pull up their schedule so far and you'll see what I mean. Its simply a matter of front court match-ups. If the home team has size to counter Brian Qvale and Derek Selvig, the Montana big men have had their effectiveness somewhat mitigated.

Nevada (Baldwin and Elliot), Utah (Foster and Washburn), & USF (Moustapha Diarra) all had the size to keep Montana from exploiting the post. Road wins at UCLA, Idaho and Fullerton can be somewhat linked to a lack of size to counter the aforementioned Grizzlies frontcourt.

Northern Colorado returns from six consecutive road games for only their second home game since Thanksgiving. While it might be tempting to take the home team here, I believe their main front-court players (Chris Kaba and Neal Kingman) will be over-matched by Qvale and Selvig all night. In fact, Kaba and Kingman seem to be at their best when they are camped out on the perimeter offensively and can be made to look awkward on the other end against larger opposition. The Bears fare much better against teams that are complicit with their attempts to break out a track meet and that isn't Montana. When the Bears have to try and find those wind open threes in the half court, things bog down rather quickly for them.

Add to the equation that Will Cherry is an above average on the defender and an absolute turnover inducer (3.6 steals per game leads all of D1 ball) and we have someone who can check (and subsequently frustrate) Devon Beitzel all night.

Tom Freese

St. Marys at Loyola Marymount
Prediction: St. Marys

Loyola Marymount is 7-7 straight up this year. The Lions are 9-19 ATS their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Lions are 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Lions are 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60%. The Lions are 1-4 ATS off an ATS win. Saint Mary's is 12-2 straight up this year The Gaels are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games overall. Saint Mary's is 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games and they are 11-5 ATS off a win by more than 20 points The Gaels are 4-0 ATS on Thursday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on NC-Greensboro +4

The Spartans will be hungry to get back on the floor tonight as they go after their first win of the season. They haven't played since Dec. 29 when they here handed a 46-point beatdown by Duke. Losses like that don't sit well. I fully expect Greensboro to play its best game of the season thus far tonight against a team it split with last season. The Spartans put a 33-point whooping on the Bulldogs on the road and only lost by 3 at home. The Bulldogs just can't be trusted laying points as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the points.

David Chan

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens

I bet value where I see it and after last night's epic 8-1 destruction of the Tampa Bay Lightning (I had the Penguins in that one), I believe Pittsburgh will suffer a "letdown" in Montreal.

The Penguins responded to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Islanders back on December 29th with their highest scoring output of the season (note though that Pittsburgh is a money-burning 8-8 [-2.8 units] this year when playing against a team with a winning record).

The Habs capped a seven-game road trip with a 3-2 win at Florida, only to fall 4-3 in OT to Atlanta on Sunday (note though that Montreal is 5-2 [+3.8 units] after allowing four-goals or more in its previous contest).

The second game of a back to back is always difficult; doubly so in this particular situation vs. a determined home side.

All signs point to the MONTREAL CANADIENS as being the sharp wager here.

Stan Lisowski

Mid Tenn St vs Miami Over

The Go Daddy Bowl has been notoriously high scoring with a 67 point average over the years, including 4 of the past 5 totaling 58 or higher. MTS games against fellow bowlers all totaled 55 or more, while Red Hawk games against teams in the post season averaged 51 points. All 5 bowl games involving either MAC or Sunbelt teams have hit at least 57 points this season.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Buffalo Sabres @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

Buffalo is just 16-18-5-0 overall, including just 7-8-4-0 on the road; on the 4th it fell 4-3 in OT to the Avalanche.

Important to note that the Sabres are in fact 5-10 (-6 units) after allowing 4 or more goals in their previous contest.

On the other side of the rink are the San Jose Sharks who are 21-14-4-1 this year, including 10-6-2-1 in front of the home town crowd; on Sunday they fell 4-3 to the league leading Vancouver Canucks.

The Sharks are 11-4 (+5.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Bottom line: San Jose lost 6-3 on the road in Buffalo back on Dec 9th, so will be playing with the "revenge" factor here; also note that the Sharks are 10-6 (+1.3 units) this season when "revenging" a loss vs. an opponent.

When you take all of the above factors into consideration, we are indeed getting good line value here; consider a wager on the San Jose Sharks.

LARRY NESS

Xavier @ Cincinnati
PICK: Xavier -9

Talk about a lack of respect. Cincinnati’s Bearcats had to open with 14 consecutive wins before gaining entrance into the AP’s top-25 poll, just this past Monday. Cincinnati (14-0) entered at No. 24 and can’t possibly help but notice that 11-3 Kansas St is ranked 17th, 9-4 Michigan St is 18th, 12-3 Illinois is 20th and right above Cincy at No. 23, is a 10-3 Washington team. Cincy is well-rid of Vaughn and Stephenson from last year’s team, as this year’s team is well-balanced and unselfish. Eight players have participated in all 14 wins with the 6-9 Gates (11.5-6.6), the 6-6 Bishop (8.1-3.8) and the 6-11 Thomas (7.9-7.0) being the best frontcourt performers. The backcourt is led by Dixon (12.7), Kilpatrick (10.1) and PG Wright (9.3-3.9 APG). The Bearcats will get a chance to play their first game of the 2010-11 season as a ranked team on Thursday and who do the Bearcats get, bitter Cincinnati-area rival Xavier. The Musketeers can’t match Cincy’s overall depth but in Holloway (21.3-4.3-5.6) will have the best player on the floor. Up front, the 7-0 Frease (11.7-7.8) and the 6-8 McLean (10.1-9.5) back down from no one. Just last year, a Xavier team which went on to win 26 games and just miss its THIRD Elite 8 appearance since 2004 when in lost in double-OT to Kansas St in the Sweet 16, needed two overtimes at home to best a Cincinnati team which would finish just three games over .500. This game MEANS something to both teams and for the first time in quite awhile, it’s 8-4 Xavier playing the role of the underdog in this series. I believe that spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the Bearcats. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders +1.31 over EDMONTON

The Islanders continue to get no love from the oddsmakers and that’s fine by us. Here’s a team that’s on a serious roll and get their easiest assignment in some time when facing the reeling and banged up Oilers. The Islanders have now picked up points in seven of its last eight. They’re coming off a 5-2 win over the Flames in Calgary and prior to that they had wins against Detroit at the Joe and against the Pens. Perhaps the best news is that Rick DiPietro was injured again and that gives young Nathan Lawson the starting goaltending job. Any goaltender is better than DiPietro and Lawson has been solid when called upon. Josh Bailey has been brilliant since his return from the minors and John Tavares has been even better. The Islanders come to play each night with a determination and hunger as strong as any team in the NHL. The Oilers are reeling big time once again. They’ve dropped seven in a row and nine of 10. Edmonton lost Jordan Eberle to injury and he joins Ryan Whitney and Shawn Horcoff on the shelf. The Oilers have scored two goals or less in eight of their last 10 and when this host isn’t creating offense they’re in big trouble. The Islanders offer up nothing but value here against a beatable Oilers club that has lost its confidence. At least when they were losing earlier in the year they were scoring goals but that is now absent. Play: N.Y. Islanders +1.31 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO +1.09 over St. Louis

The Maple Leafs have two wins in their last eight games and it came against the useless Sens and the even more useless Devils. In terms of the overall standings, the Leafs have more points than New Jersey and Edmonton and two more than the Islanders. The Blue Notes have won five of their last six, they’re seven games above .500 and goaltender Jaroslav Halak leads the West in all-star voting. The Blue Notes have credibility while the Maple Leafs do not but what really catches our eye is once again the price. On the puck line the Blues are -½ +1.44 while the Leafs are +½ -1.56. That line was designed to entice you into betting the Blue Notes, a bet many people will make. We’re not biting and while the Leafs may lose this one, the oddsmakers are strongly suggesting the Maple Leafs will play a very strong game and likely win it or at the very worst be tied after 60 minutes and thus, we’ll play this one in regulation only. Play: Toronto +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

MONTREAL +1.09 over Pittsburgh

This one has the same connotation as the Leafs/Blues game. It’s the exact same situation in that the Penguins are -½ +1.44 and the Habs are +½ -1.56. We’re either going to play them both or lay off both, as you can’t pick and choose in these situations. You either go with it or you don’t and this one might even be stronger than the Maple Leafs because the Pens bludgeoned the Bolts last night in Tampa, 8-1. That’s fresh and very clear in the minds of the gambler. Pittsburgh looked unbeatable last night and yet you can lay a half puck and take back 44 cents to wager on them here. Again, these lines are designed to entice the bettor into wagering on the wrong side and that wrong side here is the Penguins. The line says so. Play: Montreal +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Rocketman

Philadelphia @ New Jersey
Play: Philadelphia -145

First off, New Jersey goalie Brodeur is not expected to start tonight. Philadelphia is 9-2 vs division opponents this year. New Jersey is 10-29 in all games this year. New Jersey is 1-8 vs division opponents this year. New Jersey is 3-13 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Flyers are 22-6 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Flyers are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Flyers are 35-16 in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference. Devils are 8-22 in their last 30 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Devils are 5-16 in their last 21 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Devils are 6-25 in their last 31 games as an underdog. Flyers are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!