Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cincinnati Bearcats -9
Cincy is off to a 14-0 start. 10 of those wins have come at home where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 19.6 points. After falling to Xavier each of the last three seasons, expect the Bearcats to be out for blood this evening. This Xavier team is not as good as the ones we've seen in recent years. As a result, it checks into tonight's matchup on a 0-6-1 ATS skid. The Musketeers have looked lousy in two true road games, losing by 11 at Miami Ohio and by 10 at Gonzaga. I have no problem saying this Cincy team is better than those two squads. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Highly motivated to end its drought against Xavier, expect the Bearcats to win in impressive fashion this evening.
Sean Murphy
Boise State @ San Jose State
PICK: Over 142.5
The under cashed in both meetings between these teams last year, but it's not as if they were defensive struggles. Those two games totaled 150 and 141 points.
Boise State is off to a solid 9-5 start to the season, and the Broncos have done it on the strength of their offense. They've averaging right around 75 points per game on 44.8% shooting. They come into this game on a high after posting back-to-back home wins over Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State - scoring 81 points in their most recent contest.
This is a nice spot for the Broncos to once again flex their offensive muscle, as they've scored at least 84 points in three of four matchups with the Spartans since the start of 2009.
San Jose State is averaging close to 73 points per game despite shooting under 40% on the season. That says a lot about the fast pace that the Spartans like to play at.
This is an excellent bounce-back spot for San Jose State after dropping back-to-back road games at Fresno State and Utah State. Keep in mind, both of those games were played on the road. The Broncos porous defense should give the Spartans an opportunity to get in gear offensively - note that Boise State has allowed opponents to shoot 46% overall, and 43.6% from beyond the arc on the road this season.
In what should be a competitive game that goes right down to the wire, look for both teams to find their way into the 70s. That's enough for us to cash our ticket on this night. Take the over.
Sam Martin
Xavier at Cincinnati
Prediction: Xavier
Too many points for the Bearcats to be laying here against a solid Xavier team, and we'll gladly take the generous points with the road side. Cincinnati is a perfect 14-0 straight up on the season, but haven't really been tested yet against a very weak non-conference schedule. In fact, the Bearcats have yet to play a game as an underdog all season. Xavier has played a very tough schedule to this point, and we think they are battle-tested enough to at keep this game close
John Ryan
Mid Tenn St vs. Miami Ohio
Play: Under 49
5* graded play ‘UNDER” Middle Tennessee State as they take on Ohio University in the GMAC Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 48 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-9 ‘under’ for 74% winners since 2000. Play ‘under’ with neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 and is an average rushing team gaining between 140-190 rushing yards per game and facing a good rushing defense allowing 100-140 rushing yards per attempt after seven or more games of the regular season have been completed. 51% of these plays have gone ‘under’ by seven or more points and under scores my belief that 40 points will be scored in this game. Head coach Stockstill is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Middle Tennessee State.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Xavier Musketeers +9
The Musketeers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big East and 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss. The Bearcats are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games, 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Musketeers have won the last 3 meetings so Cincy will be out for revenge. However, this is a big time rivalry game, and I expect it to be closer than the odds makers think. Take the points.
Info Plays
3* Thunder -1.5
Reasons why Thunder will cover:
1) Dallas is playing without Dirk Nowitski and Caron Butler, and while they have won two straight without them, I think they are in trouble against the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City is coming off two straight losses and will come in ready to go, knowing they can get a win against the depleted Mavs.
2) The Thunder are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5, and are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. loss.
3) The Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Jack Jones
Xavier +9
Cincinnati has finally jumped into the Top-25 after their impressive 14-0 start. This team has been feeling disrespected all season, and they have been playing like it with a chip on their shoulder. After finally cracking into the Top-25, I expect the Bearcats to take a collective sigh of relief which will put them on upset alert Thursday. Due to their 14-0 start, Cincinnati is clearly overvalued right now. Though I feel they are a solid team, I do not believe the Bearcats should be 9-point favorites against a quality Xavier squad.
The Musketeers are 8-4 this season with all four of their losses coming against quality opponents. This is an in-state rivalry and anything goes with Xavier and Cincinnati get together. The Musketeers have owned this series, going 9-4 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings with Cincinnati. I expect them to be even more motivated tonight to try and knock off a Top-25 opponent. Each of the last 5 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less, and I see this one going down to the wire as well. The Musketeers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Xavier is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big East foes. The Musketeers are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss. Take Xavier Thursday showing great value.
Joe Gavazzi
Denver Nuggets vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Denver Nuggets -4½
The Kings are the worst team in the NBA. They stand 7-25 SU, 9-21 ATS. They’ve also played their worst against the better teams in the league. Though Denver beat them 104-86 (as -10) in Denver on Saturday, expect the Nuggets to bring full focus tonight as they come off a loss to the LA Clippers last night. The Nuggets are not good enough to take the bad teams for granted and still remain in the Western playoff chase.
EZWINNERS
Middle Tennessee State -2
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Dwight Dasher will be the key to this game in my opinion. Dasher has had a tough season after being suspended for the first four games of the season by the NCAA for receiving impermissible benefits but now he appears to be in mid season form. Dasher led the Blue Raiders to three straight wins to become bowl eligible and I expect him to come up big in this game. The Miami-Ohio Redhawks are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as an underdog of three points or less. Lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
M. Tennessee vs Miami, Ohio (+2), at Mobile, Ala.
For my comp selection, it’s been an eventful season for Miami of Ohio and they look to continue a fantastic turnaround tonight when they take on Middle Tennessee St. in the GoDaddy.com Bowl from Mobile, Ala.
The RedHawks finished 1-11 last season and opened this year 4-4 before turning the season around with five straight wins, including a 26-21 win over ranked Northern Illinois on Dec. 3 to win the MAC championship. For his work, coach Michael Haywood was hired by the University of Pittsburgh but then lost his job 10 days later when he was arrested on charges of domestic violence.
So Miami was going to be without coach Haywood regardless. Taking his place is Michigan State offensive coordinator Don Treadwell, who will be at the game but not coaching the sidelines.
The RedHawks eight-win improvement is the best in the nation and they have QB Austin Boucher who threw for a career-high 333 yards with a TD in the conference title game. He’s averaged 233.6 yards per game in the final three games after taking over for starter Zac Dysert who suffered a lacerated spleen. Also during the win streak, RB Thomas Merriweather has averaged 111.4 yards per game and scored six touchdowns.
Middle Tennessee’s defense struggles to stop the run, allowing 193.7 yards per game and 23 rushing TDs. The Blue Raiders had to win their final three games to become bowl eligible and got there with a Dec. 3 win over Florida International on a late-TD for a 28-27 win. They are on ATS slides of 1-4 in non-conference action and 3-7 as a favorite.
Miami has cashed in four of its last five overall and I’ve got no problem grabbing the points with them today as they were already preparing for this one without their coach. Grab the points and go with the RedHawks.
2♦ MIAMI, OHIO
Craig Davis
Oklahoma City (-2) at DALLAS
Tonight's free play is on the OKC Thunder to win the final game of a three-game series with the Mavericks.
No Dirk. No Caron Butler. Possibly no Shawn Marion. The Mavericks are a mess right now and just won't have the firepower to keep up with the younger Thunder for four quarters tonight, even at home.
Dallas isn't exactly young like Oklahoma City and without those three players they just don't have the depth to keep their players fresh for 48 minutes.
I realize Dallas won the first two meetings against the Thunder this year, and that's why I like OKC to win and cover the number tonight. Remember, Vegas has actually listed the Thunder as a road favorite because of the Dallas injuries.
Also remember the Mavericks have eight losses for the season and six of them are at home. Tonight's game, in Dallas, doesn't really give me any extra confidence for the Mavs to pull off the SU win. Why? Because for the second straight year they play better on the road than they do at home.
Too many injuries for the Mavs combined with the fact the Thunder haven't lost three games in a row all season. I don't look for them to make it three in a row tonight. Take the Thunder as a small road favorite.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
Denver at SACRAMENTO (+4')
Bettors are expecting Denver to bounce back here coming off a terrible loss to the Clippers last night, but I'm not convinced. A couple things have me worried about the Nuggets ability to cover here, including the fact they're playing on the tail end of a back-to-back (3-4 ATS no rest) against a rested opponent who's been at home for the last several games. I'm well aware of the Kings futility ATS, but make no mistake, this is a tough situational spot for any team.
Next, you have to consider a rare revenge spot in the NBA. You see, because there's so many games (unlike college for example), revenge spots are few and far between. BUT, the Nuggets just trounced the Kings on New Year's Day, and there's no question 5 days later, the Kings will be looking to exact some revenge. I'm not saying they get the outright win (unlikely), but they will bring a lot of energy to this match up.
Next, the injuries to Smith and Lawson are an issue. It appears as though Smith won't play, but Lawson will try and give it a go, although I expect neither to be effective given their injuries. The short-handed backcourt helps the Kings and Evans more than anything. Not to mention, with Cousins now starting, the Kings have a strong edge at center against Nene. Kings have shown some life in winning 2 of their L3 home games outright, and I expect they'll reward their backers with the cash once again here tonight. Sacramento plus the points over Denver Thursday.
2♦ SACRAMENTO
Karl Garrett
Xavier (+8) at CINCINNATI
Now for your free play, take Xavier plus the points against Cincinnati.
I know that the Bearcats are undefeated at 14-0, including a stellar 10-0 straight up mark at home, but the 'Cats are just 2-3 against the spread in those home games with a line, and just 4-15 overall against the spread their last 19 at home.
Xavier may be just 8-4 for the year, but they have played a tough non-conference schedule, and you just know that they will be going at this one their hardest, as this one is for bragging rights in the city.
The Musketeers have won the last 3 series meetings, and have won 7 of the last 10 overall.
Also consider that the underdog is 8-2 the last 10 times these schools have met.
Have to take a shot and grab the points with Xavier.
2♦ XAVIER
Stephen Nover
Xavier (+8) at CINCINNATI
I'll take the points with Xavier against city rival Cincinnati.
Yes, Cincinnati is up and Xavier is down this season. But the Musketeers have recently dominated the Crosstown Shootout winning 10 of the past 14 meetings, including the past three, and will be going all out. Cincinnati doesn't have that luxury.
This is more of a break from fierce Big East competition for Cincinnati. The Bearcats travel to seventh-ranked Villanova for their next game on Saturday. In the next 16 days, the Bearcats will be playing on the road against Big East foes Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame and St. John's.
Xavier has covered six of the past seven times it has faced a Big East foe. Cincinnati is 4-15 ATS at home.
The Musketeers lack Cincinnati's depth, but their starting five definitely can hang. Four of the Musketeers starters average in double figures.
The Bearcats are going to have to pay particular attention to Tu Holloway, an excellent free throw shooter who is averaging 21.3 points per game.
While Xavier is sinking 72 percent of its free throws, Cincinnati is hitting just 65.3 percent from the foul line, ranking next to last in the Big East.
1♦ XAVIER
Chris Jordan
Villanova (-7) at SOUTH FLORIDA
Now on a 5-3-2 run with complimentary basketball plays this season, and not sure if you're aware of this fact, but I've won every single week I've released college basketball, going 7-0 over the first eight weeks of the season.
I hadn't released a play in week seven with the bowl games and NFL winding down, but last night went 2-0 with 200♦ plays on Temple and NC State. Tonight I have five 200♦ plays from the West coast, that's 1,000♦ of college basketball action!!!
Right here, as my free play, I like Villanova minus the points at South Florida.
Ranked seventh in the nation, Jay Wright's boys appear ready for the always-rugged Big East Conference schedule. Opening the Big East portion of their schedule 2-0 should be easy for the 'Cats tonight, as they take on a South Florida team that is 6-0 and has lost four straight heading into this one.
The Bulls are also 0-2 in conference play already, and now have to face a Villanova program that has won four straight meetings.
Villanova is clearly the better team in this game, and should dominate offensively with superior guard play. Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher, the Wildcats' fantastic tandem out of the backcourt, will be too much for USF to handle tonight.
Lay the road chalk.
3♦ VILLANOVA
Michael Cannon
Villanova at SOUTH FLORIDA (+7')
Take the points with South Florida tonight at home over Villanova.
There’s no question the Wildcats are the better team. But I like the way the Bulls are playing defense and they came close to knocking off then No. 4 Connecticut on the road Friday, losing 66-61 in overtime.
That game showed me that the gap is closing in the Big East between the upper level and lower level teams and I expect tonight’s contest to stay close throughout.
South Florida ranks second in the Big East to Villanova in defensive field goal percentage, so the Bulls should be able to lean on their defense to keep them close.
This also marks the conference home opener for South Florida so you know emotions are going to run high here.
Take the points with South Florida for the cover.
3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Scott Delaney
Arkansas State (-2') at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
After opening the season 0-5, the Red Wolves have responded to win seve of 10, including conference opening wins over South Alabama and Western Kentucky.
I like Ark State to make it three in a row, by knocking of a Florida International team that has struggled since opening the 2010-11 campaign 4-1, but losing six of eight games.
That includes losses to Utah Valley, Sam Houston and Jackson State.
I don't believe much in the Panthers, as their defense is sloppy and tends to give up easy buckets, which surprises me given their coach played for one of the most physical teams in NBA history.
In case you had no idea, former Detroit Piston Isiah Thomas is the head coach of the Golden Panthers, who are a dismal 4-20 in this series with Arkansas State.
Arkansas State won the last meeting by 15, back in January of 2010, by the score of 76-61. And yes, even on the road the Red Wolves are dominant, as they lead the series, 8-4, at U.S. Century Bank Arena.
ASU averaged 71.9 points-per-game on 43.6 percent shooting from the floor, while the Red Wolves are converting 34.2 percent of their shots from three-point range and 72.5 percent of their attempts from the charity stripe. On the flip side, Ark State allows 65.3 points-per-game on 41.2 percent shooting from the field.
Take the Wolves.
2♦ ARKANSAS STATE
Joel Tyson
Fresno State at LOUISIANA TECH (-1)
Your comp play for Thursday night will be to take Louisiana Tech at home in the battle of the Bulldogs.
Fresno State has not been on the road since early December, and their 1-6-1 against the spread road mark certainly does little to instill confidence in their backers.
Louisiana Tech is a perfect 5-0 at home thus far, and they are on a 7-1 spread mark their last 8 lined home games.
La Tech has been able to win the last pair of series meetings, and 3 of the last 4 overall, and at this low of a price, I simply cannot go against the home-away numbers I am looking at between the teams.
Take the Bulldogs from Louisiana to best the Bulldogs from Fresno.
1♦ LOUISIANA TECH
Chuck O'Brien
Cal at ARIZONA (-13)
For Thursday’s complimentary selection in college basketball – and by the way I’m on an 18-6 roll with my free plays – take Arizona as a big home favorite against Cal.
Looking for a big bounce-back effort from the Wildcats after Sunday’s 76-75 loss at Oregon State as an eight-point chalk. How did Arizona lose when it shot 56% from the field and held Oregon State to 42.4%? A massive free-throw discrepancy, as the visitors went just 13-for-24 from the foul line while the Beavers went 24-for-32.
The loss snapped a four-game winning streak during which Arizona gave up just 58, 62, 56 and 57 points. The Wildcats’ defense has been the culprit in all three of the team’s losses (allowing 76, 87 and 87 points), but in their 12 wins they allowed an average of 57.1 ppg (only once giving up more than 62 points, and that was a 93-70 rout of Northern Colorado).
Arizona’s defense should return to form against Cal, which is averaging just 66 ppg (43.2% shooting), including 59.3 ppg in its six loses. The Bears started out 3-0 SU and ATS, including back-to-back wins over New Mexico and Temple. But since then, they’re just 4-6 SU and 1-8 ATS, including double-digit losses to Notre Dame (57-44), Boston College (68-46), San Diego State (77-57) and Kansas (78-63) with the latter two coming at home.
Arizona (along with Washington) is the class of the Pac-10, while I wouldn’t be surprised if Cal ends up in the league’s basement. And with the Wildcats a perfect 8-0 at home – outscoring visitors by 24.4 ppg and outshooting them 50.4% to 39.5% – the Chuckster calls for a 20-point beat-down.
4♦ ARIZONA
Brent Brooks
St. Mary's -8
In some circles, Saint Mary's was actually picked to finish behind LMU this season. The thinking there was probably the seemingly inevitable dropoff subsequent to the departure of Omar Samhan. However, thanks in part to the emergence of transfer (from WCC team San Diego) Rob Jones (13.7 ppg, 50.4 FG%) the Gaels have replaced at least some of Samhan's production. Australian-born Clint Steindl and Mitchell Young have come along nicely so far this year as Randy Bennett continues to make his program something of a talent pipeline from down under. Backcourt mates Mickey McConnell (14.2 ppg, 90% FT%) and Matthew Dellavedova (13 ppg, 88% FT) do a solid job protecting the ball and balancing the task of getting their own looks and distributing as well. As a team, the Gaels are shooting over 50% and are a solid 75% from the line but when they need to ice a game - or in our case a spread - its nice to know we have two guards that are money from the line.
For a team with aspirations of another NCAA tourney appearance, they know that along with the Zags, they will get every WCC team's best shot.
The question here is can LMU score with SMC because I don't believe they can stop them. I realize that LMU has two solid players in Teel and Viney - but as a team they are only shooting 27% from deep to the Gael's 39.2% and we know that so many WCC matchups become a FT and 3P exhibition. I believe we are looking at a SMC double digit win as they Gaels look to preserve their high Sagarin rating and emphatically announce that the WCC predictions that had the Lions finishing ahead of them were pure fantasy.
Wunderdog Sports
Tennessee Tech vs. Morehead State
Play: Morehead State -15
Tennessee Tech appears on the surface to be a decent team at 6-6, but considering three of the wins were vs. Bluefield College, Hiwassee State and Crowley's Ridge College - time to rethink that. The other three were vs. SIU - Edwardsville, Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State. Not much competition there, so the 6-6 is not very impressive. The six losses have been by legitimate teams and a couple of good ones that a decent team would put away. Morehead State is a perfect 8-0 at home and has beaten tough Murray State and an eye-opening win vs. a very good Charleston team by 20. The Eagles are playing way above the line at 7-0 ATS at home and will expose this 6-6 team for what they really are - a poor team. I’m taking Morehead State in this one.
Black Widow
1* on California +13
Arizona is overvalued right now and the clear value in this game is with the road underdog in the California Bears Thursday. Arizona does not have one quality win this season as all of their wins have come in games that they were either favored in or there was no line. So their 12-3 record is a bit swayed in the fact that they have played such a soft schedule. They had chances to make statements in games against Kansas and BYU, but lost to the Jayhawks by 8 and to the Cougars by 22. The Wildcats even lost to Oregon State last time out. California is no juggernaut at 7-6, but they do have a few quality wins including upset victories over New Mexico by 25, Temple by 7 and Iowa State by 3. They can hang with Arizona tonight with a great chance to cover this massive spread even if they don't pull off the upset. The Bears are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Arizona, and have not lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Wildcats by more than 10 points. Take California and the points.