SPORTS ADVISIORS
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(at Pasadena, Calif.)
(2) Texas (13-0, 5-7-1 ATS) vs. (1) Alabama (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
Two schools that just missed out on the opportunity to play for the national championship a year ago get that chance tonight as top-ranked Alabama squares off against the No. 2 Longhorns in the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl.
Texas barely squeaked into this contest, getting a last-second 46-yard field goal that snuck just inside the left upright as time expired to upend Nebraska 13-12 in the Big 12 championship game back on Dec. 5. In the victory, the Longhorns – who never threatened to cover as a 14-point chalk – gained just 202 yards (including 18 rushing yards on 38 carries), and star QB Colt McCoy was sacked a career-high nine times and threw three interceptions and no TD passes. However, the defense stepped up as it has all season, limiting Nebraska to a paltry 106 total yards (67 rushing, 39 passing), two third-down conversions and five first downs, while recording three interceptions.
Unlike their opponent tonight, the Crimson Tide punched their ticket to the BCS Championship Game in emphatic fashion, crushing then-No. 1 Florida 32-13 as a five-point underdog to win the SEC championship Dec. 5. In ending the Gators’ national-best 22-game winning streak and their hopes for a repeat national championship, Alabama boasted eye-popping edges of 490-335 in total yards, 251-88 in rushing yards, 26-13 in first downs and 39:37-20:23 in time of possession. Star RB Mark Ingram, who would win Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy a week later, rushed for 113 yards and three TDs in helping his team avenge a 31-20 loss to Florida in the 2008 SEC championship game that kept Alabama out of last year’s BCS title contest.
Texas is back in the BCS Championship Game for the second time and the first since the 2005 season, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to a thrilling 38-35 upset win of USC as a seven-point underdog in a game that was also played at the Rose Bowl. Texas is seeking its fifth national championship.
Alabama can lay claim to its 12th national championship with a victory tonight, the most recent coming in 1992. That year, the Crimson Tide knocked off top-ranked Miami 34-13 as an eight-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl to finish off a 13-0 campaign.
Teams from the SEC have won the last three BCS title games both SU and ATS. The favorite has won and covered the last two years following a 4-1 SU and ATS run by the underdog. The winner has covered in all 11 BCS Championship Games.
Tonight marks the ninth time these college football powerhouses have met, with Texas dominating the rivalry with a 7-0-1 record. However, the most recent meeting came way back in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, which the Longhorns won 14-12 as a 1½-point underdog. The average final score in the previous eight meetings – five coming in bowl games – was 16-8.
Alabama is in its 58th bowl game, by far the most in the nation, and its 31 bowl victories are tied for first with USC. However, after losing to Florida in last year’s SEC title game, the Crimson Tide failed to show up in the BCS Sugar Bowl and got rolled by undefeated Utah 31-17 as a 10-point favorite. ‘Bama coach Nick Saban is 4-6 SU and ATS in bowl games (1-1 SU and ATS with the Tide), and this storied program is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight postseason contests.
Texas ranks second to the Crimson Tide with 49 postseason appearances. Last year in the BCS Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns got a touchdown with 16 seconds left to rally past Ohio State 24-21, but failed to cover as an eight-point favorite, falling to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowls. Coach Mack Brown is 12-6 in 18 career bowl games, but just 8-10 ATS.
Texas played just two competitive contests all year, edging Oklahoma 16-13 as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17 and holding off Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns’ other 11 wins were double-digit routs, including nine victories of 24 points or more. With the exception of Oklahoma and Nebraska, Texas scored at least 34 points in every game, eclipsed 40 points nine times and held nine opponents to 14 points or less. Only Texas Tech (24 points) and Texas A&M (39 points) topped 20 points against the Texas defense.
Alabama kicked off the season with a 34-24 rout of Virginia Tech as a 6½-point favorite at a neutral venue in Atlanta, the first of 11 double-digit victories. Like Texas, the Crimson Tide were challenged just twice: getting a blocked field goal as time expired to hold off Tennessee 12-10 as a 14-point home favorite on Oct. 24, then rallying from a 14-0 deficit at archrival Auburn on Nov. 27, winning 26-21 but failing to cover as a 10-point road chalk. Alabama scored 34 points or more in each of its first five games but just once over its final eight contests, when it averaged 26.5 ppg. However, the defense didn’t bend all year, holding 12 consecutive opponents to 21 points or less after the Virginia Tech game, including yielding 15 points or fewer 10 times.
After finishing second in last year’s Heisman voting, McCoy returned to Texas for his senior season and completed 70.5 percent of his throws for 3,512 yards with 27 TDs against 12 INTs. He also rushed for 342 yards and three scores. McCoy, who took over for Vince Young following the 2005 championship season, is a four-year starter who has connected on 70.1 percent of his passes for 13,244 yards with 112 TDs and 45 INTs, plus 1,571 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs.
McCoy guides an attack that ranked in the Top 15 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg), total offense (432.3 ypg) and passing offense (279.7 ypg). Texas also rushed for 152.6 ypg (4.1 per carry). Defensively, the Longhorns have one of the stingiest units in the country, allowing 15.2 ppg, 251.1 total ypg, 188.8 passing ypg and 62.3 rushing ypg, figures that ranked eighth, third, 23rd and first, respectively. Texas allowed opposing RBs to gain just 2 yards per carry, gave up an NCAA-low five rushing TDs and led the country with 24 interceptions.
En route to winning the Heisman Trophy, Alabama sophomore Ingram rushed for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ingram was aided by QB Greg McElroy, who overcame a midseason slump and completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,450 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs. Together, Ingram and McElroy lead an offense that averaged 31.7 ppg and 413.8 total ypg, with a rushing attack that netted 215.8 ypg (12th best in the country) and 5.1 ypc.
Alabama led the nation in scoring defense (11 ppg allowed) and was second to TCU in total defense (241.8 ypg). The Tide were seventh in passing defense (163.8 ypg), tied for seventh with 20 INTs and second to Texas in rushing defense (78.1 ypg, 2.8 yards per carry). Like the Longhorns, ‘Bama surrendered just five rushing scores.
Since Brown took over in Austin, the Longhorns have been an underdog 15 times, going 10-5 ATS with nine outright upsets (including the 2005 national title game). Going back further, Texas is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a ‘dog at neutral sites. Texas had a 4-1 ATS run toward the end of the season, but failed to cover in its final two contests, and it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-4 in non-conference games and 2-6-1 against winning teams.
Alabama is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 games as a single-digit chalk, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight when favored by 3½ to 10 points. The Tide have also cashed in five of their last six games against Big 12 opponents.
The under is on runs of 6-2 for Texas at neutral sites, 8-2 for Texas against winning teams, 5-2-1 for Alabama overall, 5-1-1 for Alabama as a favorite and 4-1-1 when Alabama plays on grass. Finally, last year’s BCS title tilt between Florida and Oklahoma (24-14 final) stayed under the total, ending a 4-0 “over” run in this contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Michigan (7-6, 3-6 ATS) at Penn State (8-6, 5-6-1 ATS)
The day’s only game matching teams from a power conference comes from the Bryce Jordan Center in State College, Pa., as Penn State tries again for its first Big Ten victory when it hosts the Wolverines.
Michigan has alternated SU wins and losses in its last eight games, most recently knocking off archrival Ohio State 73-64 Sunday as a two-point home favorite. The Wolverines have dropped all three of their true road games, including a 71-65 loss at Indiana as a 4½-point favorite in their Big Ten opener on New Year’s Eve.
Penn State gave Minnesota a fight in its conference debut on Dec. 29, falling 75-70 as a 13-point underdog, but then the Nittany Lions came home Sunday and got destroyed by Wisconsin 63-46 as a five-point underdog. Penn State, which won last year’s postseason NIT title, hasn’t lost three straight games since last February, a stretch of 27 contests.
The Nittany Lions’ last three-game slide began with a 71-51 loss at Michigan as a 4½-point underdog on Feb. 5. However, Penn State won the first meeting two weeks earlier, rolling 73-58 as a two-point underdog. The home team has won each of the last five in this rivalry both SU and ATS, all as a favorite, and Michigan is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four trips to State College. Going back further, the host is on an 8-0-1 ATS roll and the chalk is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes. Also, the SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series battles.
The Wolverines are on ATS runs of 5-2 in Big Ten play and 8-1 on Thursday, but they’re otherwise in pointspread funks of 2-6 overall, 16-33-3 on the highway and 2-5 after a SU victory. Penn State is 4-1 in its last five on Thursday and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against winning teams, but the Lions have failed to cash in five of their last six lined home games.
The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and the under is also on streaks of 18-7-1 for Michigan on the road, 7-3 for Penn State after a SU loss and 3-1-1 for Penn State versus winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER
Joseph D'Amico
Texas vs. Alabama
Play: Texas +4½
At last, we have 2 undefeated teams ranked at #1 and #2 in the Title Bowl game. It's nice to see the top two rated teams fighting it out for the National Championship. Between these two teams, they are 26-0 TY. This is Alabama's 3rd BCS Bowl game(0-2 SU and ATS) but their first trip to the BCS Title game while Texas has played in 3 BCS games (3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS) with a BCS Title win in 2005 over #1 USC, 41-38, as a 7 point underdog. Understand that the oddsmakers are posting a line due to Alabama's shredding of Florida along with Texas' close call over Nebraska. The general public has moved this game up even more. My line shows Alabama to be a 3 point fav. However the Tide lost LB Dont'a Hightower and WR Michael Bowman. That combo would bring my line down to a -2. The Longhorn's have the better passing team led by QB Colt McCoy who has 27 TD's, 3512 YP, and a 70.5% completion rate. No doubtedly, McCoy will look for his top target in Jordan Shipley who has 6 100+ yard receiving games TY. When Alabama is on offense, the name of their game is Heisman winner RB Mark Ingram who set an SEC record with 8 100+ yard games. The Texas "D" is allowing a mere 15.2 PPG and have only gave up more than 20 once this season. The 'Bama "D" is tops in the nation giving up just 11 PPG. The biggest contrast bewteen thses two teams is the Special Teams. Texas has the best ST unit in the country. They have 7 returns for a TD this year. Their Kicker, Lawrence has the best foot in the nation. On both sides of ST's, Texas has the edge. On returns, they are deadly and will have much better field postion due to the better kicker. Alabam has never beaten Texas, going 0-7-1 and being outscored by an average of 16-8 in 5 Bowl meetings. HC Saban is 4-6 SU on Bowls and HC Brown is 12-6 SU in Bowl games. Brown beat Saban 35-20 in the 02' Cotton Bowl when Saban was with LSU. Since 04' Texas is 5-0 SU in Bowl action. The team that makes the least mistakes with the best field position and special teams wins. This game will be settled by less than a TD. Take Texas plus the points.
LOGICAL APPROACH
This is the game many expected back in August. Or at least one of the most likely matchups as Texas was considered a solid choice to make it here to face Alabama, Florida or USC. USC was eliminated early in the season while both Florida and Alabama headed into their SEC Title game showdown unbeaten. Alabama won that game convincingly while Texas needed a fortuitous turn of events and a last second FG to edge Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game to play for the BCS Title. Both teams bring outstanding credentials into this contest. The defenses are ranked # 2 and # 3 in yardage and # 1 and # 8 in points. The offenses also rated highly with Alabama having the better rush attack and Texas better at tossing the pigskin. Alabama lost just 10 turnovers all season and was +16 in turnover margin. Texas created 35 turnovers and was +12 in margin. By virtue of playing in the SEC Alabama played the more demanding schedule. Their significantly better ATS mark also shows they performed better versus expectations than did Texas. Of course just prior to the win over Florida, Alabama struggled to bet by arch rival Auburn, coming from behind in the closing minute. Likewise Texas struggled to hold off their arch rival Texas A&M. Both teams are well coached and each coach already has a National Title - Texas' Brown with their win over USC a few years back and 'Bama's Saban as coach at LSU 2 seasons earlier. Both teams will be well prepared on both sides of the football. Texas arguably has the better ability to come from behind with their more polished passing game. These defenses also rank #1 and #2 against the rush, making it important for Alabama's offense to develop a passing game. Clearly either team can will this game and if these teams faced one another 50 times each should win 25. The value in this game is with Texas, based largely upon what everyone saw in both teams' conference Championship games. For much of the season books that had "future" lines on potential BCS matchups had this matchup pretty much a pick 'em. Both teams are highly motivated. Texas may be fueled as well by their feeling of being slighted last season despite defeating Oklahoma which lost to Florida in the BCS Title game. The Longhorns did not make it to the Big 12 Title game despite sharing the Big 12 South title with Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Teams ranked #2 have historically fared well when facing teams ranked #1 and with not much separating these teams the preference is to take the points with the Underdog. And as such the call will be for the mild upset with Texas winning 23-17, making
TEXAS a 3 Star Selection
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection
BANG THE BOOK
After a very long season it all comes down to this one game for the National Championship. The arguments are over with and it is time to settle it on the field. The #1 team in the country and the SEC Champion will face off against the #2 team in the country and the Big 12 Champion. A breakdown of these teams will help to decide who will be the National Champion! Alabama is the undisputed #1 team in the country. They played in the hardest conference in the country and avoided all close calls to remain undefeated. They played a tough and talented team in the SEC Championship in the Florida Gators and they crushed them. They arguably have the best defense in the country and have the Heisman winner in Mark Ingram. They just need one more win to bring home the biggest trophy of them all. In order to win they have to beat the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship in a close contest against Nebraska. They were up to any challenge the season offered them and they have one of the bet quarterbacks in the country in Colt McCoy. A win in this game will quiet all of the critics. The reason that Alabama crushed Florida is because they controlled the line of scrimmage and therefore they could run the ball. Texas will not allow that to happen and many people don’t realize they are #1 in the country against the run. The Horns have a chip on their shoulder and are not getting any respect with everyone already calling Alabama Champs. The Tide does not travel well and historically when #1 plays #2 the #2 team wins more than naught. Texas has the edge at QB and will win this game and it will be close throughout. The Longhorns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. Take the Horns plus the points in the big game!
BCS Championship Pick: Texas +5
THE GOLD SHEET
Alabama 24 - Texas 13—Although both of these combatants for the
BCS crown played their last game more than a month ago, it’s not easy to
keep disparate recent results from overly influencing the handicap of this
matchup. Sure, Texas enters undefeated, just like Alabama. But, a week
after needing all 60 minutes to dispatch rebuilding rival Texas A&M 49-39,
the Longhorns then barely survived Nebraska in the Big XII title game,
fending off the defensively-stout but offensively-challenged Cornhuskers
(and some nearly catastrophic late-game clock mismanagement) on a lastsecond
FG, 13-12. The Tide, on the other hand, saved their best for last. In
fact, Bama’s 32-13 revenge beatdown of defending national champ Florida
in its conference title game resounds to such a degree that, combined with
the SEC’s haughty reputation, the Tide has a definite air of invincibility
entering this contest.
So, does mighty Texas really have no chance? Hardly. After all,
Alabama has looked plenty “vincible” at times this season, a blocked FG in
the final seconds and a TD in the last couple minutes staving off upset bids
by Tennessee and Auburn, respectively. And the Longhorns will relish their
underdog status, as wily head coach Mack Brown has covered five straight
(including four outright victories) in that rare role. The first game in that dog
quintet? A memorable little contest on this same field four years ago, when
Vince Young led UT to an improbable upset of a seemingly invulnerable
USC squad in the BCS title game. Remember, Young finished second in the
Heisman voting to Trojan RB Reggie Bush that season. This year? Tide RB
Mark Ingram captured the coveted trophy, with Longhorn sr. QB Colt McCoy
in Young’s role as motivated also-ran.
The parallels between that 41-38 shootout and this season’s title game
don’t extend to the fundamentals, however, as the defenses are likely to
dominate this matchup. Alabama has begrudged foes just 11 ppg & 242 ypg
(both No. 2 in the nation), and Texas’ stingy stop unit ranks close behind at
15 ppg & 251 ypg. As for the offenses, each team enjoys at least one easily
discernible advantage. Horn QB McCoy is a fifth-year senior with 52 career
starts under his belt; still-learning counterpart jr. Greg McElroy is in his first
season Tide’s top signal-caller. On the Bama side—while Ingram has
rumbled for 1542 YR on 6.2 ypc and 18 TDs, the often-anemic UT ground
game is led by RS frosh Tre Newton with only 513 YR.
Would it be a shock if McCoy’s passing accuracy (73% the last two
seasons) and resourcefulness (175 YR vs. A&M!) were to lead Texas to
another upset victory? Not really. But the more decisive factor in this game
is likely to be the Tide’s superior rushing attack. Even if Ingram doesn’t post
gaudy statistics, his presence will help slow down the hellacious Horn pass
rush (39 sacks) enough to give McElroy some time to throw down field off
play-action. And, before selling the Bama triggerman short in his personal
battle with McCoy, keep in mind that McElroy is now 29-0 as a starting QB
in high school and college after easily outdueling none other than Tim
Tebow in the SEC title game. Add Lou Groza Award-winning sr. PK Leigh
Tiffin on the Tide side, plus plenty of cleverly designed, NFL-style blitzes by
all-business head coach Nick Saban and highly-regarded defensive
coordinator Kirby Smart (named nation’s top assistant) to keep McCoy off
balance, and the percentages favor laying a fair price with Alabama.
(DNP...SR: Texas 7-0-1)
GOLDSHEET EXTRA
TEXAS vs. ALABAMA (BCS title game at Pasadena, January 7)...Mack
has been nothing special in bowls lately, just 3-7 vs. number last 10. But he is
5-1 in rare dog role since ‘04. Bama just 2-5 vs. line last 7 bowls in past
decade (1-1 with Nick). Nick is 12-3 vs. line last 15 away from Tuscaloosa,
however. Note much trending in recent BCS title games, with dogs and chalk
3-3 last 6. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on Mack dog numbers
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
This is Bama’s 3rd BCS bowl (0-2 SU/ATS) but 1st trip to the BCS Title Gm while Texas has played in 3 BCS gms (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) with a BCS Title win in ‘05 over #1 USC, 41-38 as a 7 pt dog at this site. Bama’s last Title win was in 1992 under Gene Stallings when they beat #1 Miami, FL 34-13 (+8) in the Sugar Bowl. This is the 9th meeting between these two traditional powers who have won a combined 15 National Titles (11 Bama, 4 Texas) but Alabama has never beaten Texas (0-7-1) being outscored by an avg of 16-8 with 5 meetings in bowls. The last meeting was a 14-12 Texas (+1’) win in the 1982 Cotton Bowl. Saban is 4-6 SU/ATS in bowls (1-1 SU/ATS at Bama) while Brown is 12-6 SU (8-10 ATS). Saban coached LSU to a BCS Title win over #3 Oklahoma in ‘03, 21-14 (+7). These two coaches faced off once before with Brown (-10’) prevailing 35-20 in the ‘02 Cotton Bowl over Saban’s LSU tm. Texas has played in 48 bowls (25-21-2 SU, but 3-7 ATS run) while Bama has been to the most bowls in NCAA history (31-22-3) and is on a 2-6 ATS run. Texas is 10-5 all-time as a dog under Brown with 9 outright upsets. Bama is 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS as a single digit favorite. Both programs are senior-laden with Alabama having 11 senior starters and Texas 8. Even though Texas is 643 miles closer, the crowd should be split with fans of both gobbling up every available ticket.
Texas escaped the B12 Title gm with a last second FG just inside the left upright to finish undefeated for the 2nd time in the L/5Y. The Horns have lost just 8 gms S/’04 going a perfect 5-0 in bowls. Unlike their National Title in ‘05, UT hasn’t been as dominant on offense (520 ypg to 432), but has played better on defense (251 ypg to 309). The Horns still have put up at least 34 pts in every gm but OU and NU whose defenses are comparable to Bama’s. B12 Off POY AA/1st Tm B12 QB McCoy is clearly the leader. The FBS’s all-time winningest QB has 8 gms with multiple TD passes (5 with 3+) and did not throw an int in 4 of the L/5 reg ssn gms. On Thanksgiving McCoy had 479 ttl yds. It was a RB-by-committee again TY as no back had over 600 yards. 1st Tm B12 WR Shipley is McCoy’s best friend and #1 target. He has six 100+ yd performances and had at least 6 rec in every gm but one. The OL avg 6’5” 310 (3 Sr starters) paving the way for 153 ypg (4.1) all’g 30 sks (6.0%) which was the most in 7 yrs. They are led by a pair of 2nd Tm B12 in C Hall and OT Ulatoski. DC Muschamp is known for his hyper coaching style and is the HC in waiting. UT has allowed 20 pts and 311 or fewer yds (under 200 5x’s!) in 11 gms. The DL avg 6’4” 276 (2 Sr) all’g an NCAA best 62 rush ypg (2.0) while accounting for 25 (66%) of the tms 38 sks. The DL is led by Kindle and Houston who both earned 2nd Tm B12 while the LB unit in anchored by Muckelroy (1st Tm). UT is ranked #3 in our pass eff def allowing 189 ypg (56%) with a 14-24 ratio. Thorpe finalist/1st Tm B12 Thomas is the key to the secondary. The ST unit is tops in the nation with a combined 7 TD returns and if wasn’t for the foot of K Lawrence they would not be playing for the National Title.
What a year for the Tide winning their first SEC Title since 1999 with a 13-0 record and earning their first trip to the BCS Title game. QB McElroy had a decent year despite coming under fire from the fans at midssn when he threw for just 147 yds vs Ole Miss, 92 yds vs SC and 120 vs Tenn with an 0-2 ratio in that stretch. He finished the yr with some of his best gms of the yr avg 229 ypg (67%) with a 3-0 ratio vs Aub and FL. McElroy is 29-0 as a starting QB going back to HS. RB Ingram set the SEC on fire with eight 100+ yd rushing gms incl a Bryant-Denny Stadium record 246 rush yds vs SC. He became Bama’s 1st Heisman winner in school history. WR Jones had a tough year with inj’s hampering him, but down the stretch was healthy and had 29 of his 42 rec in the L/6 gms. The OL avg 6’5” 297 with 2 senior starters including AA OG Mike Johnson. Overall, Alabama is #12 on offense and #1 on defense in our rankings. Bama is #1 in the NCAA in scoring def allowing just 11 ppg and is led by DC Smart who won the Broyles Award (top asst). Butkus winner/AA McClain, AA DT Cody, AA CB Arenas and AA SS Barron give the Tide playmakers at every position. Bama is #4 in our pass D rankings allowing just 164 ypg (47%) with a 9-20 ratio and Texas’ McCoy has struggled against strong secondaries TY. Bama is #30 in our ST rankings headlined by AA K Tiffin and dangerous ret spec Arenas, but has a weakness on kick coverage allowing 2 KR TD’s TY (25.6 avg).
While LY we gave you Florida as the BCS winner, in this year’s game the teams are evenly matched. There was surely an overreaction on the line with Bama’s convincing win while Texas kicked a GW FG on the final play. With this game almost 4 weeks away from presstime, we will not force a play because any injury or development could sway our lean.
FORECAST: ALABAMA vs TEXAS RATING: NO PLAY
PLAYBOOK
Texas over Alabama by 1
The 2009 college football comes to a close in Pasadena when No. 1
ranked Alabama meets No. 2 Texas in a matchup of undefeated teams
playing for all the marbles. The Tide will be looking to complete an SEC
grand slam of BCS titles, with Florida (2006 and 2008) and LSU (2007)
hoisting the championship trophy the last three years. Bama head coach
Nick Saban relishes games like this where he stands 10-3 SU and ATS in
his college career when both his team and the opponent are spotless.
Add to the fact that SEC championship game winners are 7-1 SU and
6-2 ATS in bowl games and you can understand why Bama dresses up
as the favorite in this contest. Next to TCU, the Tide’s defense ranks No.
2 in the land, holding four foes to season low yards. Heisman Trophy
RB Mark Ingram, star WR Julio Jones and SR QB Greg McElroy key the
offense. While we’ll be watching Ingram and Jones on Sundays in the
very near future, this is likely McElroy’s fi nal appearance as a signal caller.
McElroy has made the best of being a career backup, having never lost
a start in his high school or college career. He replaced Chase Daniel
at Southlake High School in Texas in his senior season and won every
game. He is also 13-0 with Alabama. Ingram carries the burden of the
Heisman, as these teams are just 7-21 ATS in bowl games, including 3-15
SU when facing an opponent that allows less than 17 PPG on the season.
This year’s Tide team will attempt to do something no other Alabama
team has done in its school history, namely beat a Texas team on the
gridiron, where the Longhorns are 7-0-1 all-time in this series. UT head
coach Mack Brown was rewarded with a new contract that will command
$5 million annually. Hey, when your football program generates $87.6
million dollars annually, the numbers are justifi ed. So are the Longhorns’
chance in this game as the dog in AP No. 1 versus No. 2 games is 19-6 ATS
in games since 1985. From our powerful database we learn that bowl
games involving undefeated opponents fi nds teams that scored 30 or
less points in their last game 6-1 SU and ATS. On the fl ip side, teams
that scored 30 or more points in their last contest are 3-8 SU and ATS in
post season play. Two-time Heisman runnerup QB Colt McCoy (who came
within one second of being remembered as ‘Dolt’ McCoy had the Horns
lost to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game) closes out a spectacular career,
sporting a 20-3 SU mark as a starter for Texas. Because the public tends
to remember what it saw last – and that was Texas playing its worst game
of the season and Alabama its best – we’ll call for a ‘reversal of fortune’
tonight. Hook ‘em Horns!
POINTWISE
This is it. For all the marbles. As we stated in an earlier bowl writeup, just 1
tick of the clock has kept either Cincinnati or TCU from participating in this
contest. That, of course, refers to the Longhorns of Texas kicking a FG to beat
Nebraska in the Big12 title game, after the officials put a second back on the
clock. Rightfully so, by the way, altho the Steers' play calling was certainly
weird, to say the least. In the pre-season polls, the Steers & Crimson Tide of
Alabama were both ranked in the Top 5, with Florida a near-unanimous choice
as repeat national champs. There is no questioning the credentials of these 2
giants. The 'Tide has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround, since acquiring Saban
in '07. From a combined 13-13 log in '06 & '07, to 25-2 the past two seasons,
including a 24-0 regular season mark. They've finished 3rd & 2nd in total "D"
the past 2 years, as well as 2nd in rushing both years. And try #1 in scoring
"D" in '09. With Heisman winning RB Ingram (1,542 yds, 15 TDs, 6.2 ypr) the
main focus of opposing "D"s, QB McElroy has enjoyed a stellar season (61%,
17/4). But when it comes to QBs, Texas signalcaller McCoy has no peer, with
his 45 wins as a starter, the most ever by an NCAA bowl subdivision QB. The
last 4 years, he has finished 8th (29/7), 24th (22/18), 3rd (34/8), & 19th (27/12)
in passing efficiency. But he hasn't had the complementary running game the
past 2 years (Texas: 41st & 55th in rushing in '08 & '09). Defensively, Texas
ranks 3rd in total (1st in rushing). Both coaches have won national titles since
'03, with UT's Brown taking his teams to 18 straight bowls. The Steers have
won their last 5 bowls (2-3 ATS), but the 'Tide has been the more impressive.
PROPHECY: ALABAMA 27 - Texas 17 RATING: 3
INVICTUS SPORTS
Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
It is finally the BCS National Championship Game! The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California will host the much anticipated battle between the Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide. This will be ninth meeting between these two schools, the first since the 1982 Cotton Bowl Classic. The first time these two schools met was over a 100 years ago in 1902. The Texas Longhorns are 7-0-1 against Alabama in those previous meetings. This game brings a lot of rich tradition with it, as the Crimson Tide has 6 National Championship Titles, and even if Texas wins this game tonight, they will still trail the Tide by one. So let’s break this puppy down…
Let’s take a quick second to look at the officials for this game. Cincinnati was not invited to the National Championship game this year, but the Big East will still be represented at least, by the officials. The six automatic-qualifying BCS conferences are the only leagues that officiate the five BCS bowl games. Whichever conference works the BCS National Championship Game misses a BCS bowl the next season. Because the SEC and Big 12 are in this year's championship game, those conferences couldn't officiate it. The ACC was eliminated because it officiated last season's BCS title game. That left the Big East, Big Ten and Pac-10. Big East officials got the nod because this will be their second national championship game in 12 years, leaving all six BCS conferences with two national title games in a 12-year period. Interestingly enough, the last time the Big East officiated this game in January 2004, was when Nick Saban's LSU team defeated Oklahoma for the BCS national championship. On to more important pieces to the puzzle…
The coaches are equals. Both Texas and Alabama’s Programs were struggling before Mack Brown and Nick Saban both respectfully came in and restored their perspective teams programs. After Texas slumped its way through the 1990s, Brown came in and restored the Longhorns to greatness. Mack Brown has won at least 10 games for nine consecutive seasons. After Alabama slumped its way through this decade, Saban arrived and over the last two seasons has restored the Crimson Tide to greatness. After going 6-6 in the 2007 regular season, Saban's first year, Alabama has gone 25-2. Nick Saban looks to become the first coach in the modern era to win national championships at two different schools.
Let’s not forget a very important and interesting piece to this game on the coaching side. The Texas Longhorns defensive coordinator is Will Muschamp. Will Muschamp was just coming off his first season as the defensive coordinator at Division II Valdosta State when Nick Saban hired him in the same capacity at LSU. Together they won the 2004 National Championship. Nick Saban then decided to take his coaching box to the NFL, as the Miami Dolphins Head Coach. And would you believe it, Saban had enough confidence in Muschamp that he too went to the NFL and served as Saban’s defensive coordinator at the NFL level. One year later Muschamp decided to go back to college and was the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Nick Saban took the job at Alabama, and they met head to head for the first time in 2007. Let’s not forget that Will Muschamp won that battle, so the scorecard in their rivalry is Muschamp 1, Saban 0. Interesting enough, Alabama’s current defensive coordinator, Kirby Smart, and Will Muschamp worked together on the LSU staff together. So it comes as no surprise that the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide are ranked #1 and #2 in rushing defense. Alabama is second in total defense and Texas is third. Both defenses strive on the turnover, and the Tide’s plus 16 turnover ratio is evident, as is the Longhorn’s plus 12 ratio. I would like to call the coaching staff pretty much an equal wash, but I will actually give the Longhorn’s lead by Will Muschamp as the defensive coordinator the edge here.
Let’s take a closer look at the Longhorn’s offense. No surprise the Longhorn’ attack begins with Senior QB Colt McCoy, the all-time winningest QB in NCAAF History. McCoy posted a 45-7 record as the starting QB at Texas en route to the only QB to lead his team to four 10 win seasons. McCoy has uncanny accuracy both in the pocket and outside of it, and his 71% completion percentage is evident of that accuracy. But not only is he a threat to throw the ball, he is not afraid to tuck the ball and take off and run with it. But you don’t score more than 40 points in 8 of your 13 games with only one player, McCoy has benefited from a very good supporting cast. One of those weapons is WR Jordan Shipley, his favorite WR’s. Shipley is not the biggest WR, but he makes up with that lack of height with his precise routes and great hands, as well as some good separation speed that all adds up to balance out his average size. He will go down as one of the greatest WR’s at Texas. I think we also have to note Junior James Kirkendoll who had 48 grabs and 6 of those were for TD’s. Also, Sophomore WR Malcom Williams was second on the team in receiving yards. Texas has a number of high profile players at the skill positions. Of course when it comes to rushing the ball, the Longhorns are not bum-steers. This year they have been lead by talented redshirt freshman Tre Newton. I also think that Cody Johnson will be able to another change of pace back that will be able to really pound the ball between the tackles when they need to do so. Keep in mind that the Longhorns will give it to you from different places. They had 4 rushers with over 300 yards on the ground this year. Up front Texas is as good as anyone, even though Suh made some people question that. They are lead by two All-Americans, Center Chris Hall, and Adam Ulatoski.
Defensively the Longhorns have given up a trifling 15.2 points per game and are anchored on all three layers of their defense. Up front Defensive End Sam Acho and DT Lamarr Houston have caused absolute havoc. Acho is one the nations best pass rushers and led the Horns with 9 sacks and 4 recovered fumbles. He presents a lot of speed that will being coming off the edge. He should have plenty of chances to rush the passer in long down in distances as Houston should plug up the middle pretty good. Roaming behind these defensive lineman are two backers that bring a lot of experience and a lot of athleticism. In fact I love these two guys, Sergio Kindle, and Rodderick Muckelroy. These guys are loaded with athletic ability and are almost hybrid players. Look for them to play a huge impact in stopping the run game and adding some pressure in this game. On the third layer and in the backfield is Earl Thomas. Not only is the guy one of the best ball hawks, if not the best ball hawk safety, he is not afraid to come up and hit some people. He will need to come up and help stopping Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram. But don’t be fooled, Thomas is up for that challenge. He is not just a one-dimensional player. He is second on the team in tackles, so he is use to coming up and helping in the run game. In all, the Longhorns have given up a measly 808 rushing yards on the season. That is only 62.2 yards per game, and only 2.6 yards per carry. They can matchup with potent rushing attack that Bama presents. Through the air they have given up 188 yards per game, but when you outscore your opponents 529 to 197, they are bound to throw the ball a little more against you.
On to Alabama now. Lets take a look at their offense first. The Crimson Tide were a machine that dominated the time of possession. They held the ball almost 34 minutes per game. That ranks 3rd in the nation. Not to mention they take care of the football, with only 10 turnovers this year. Offensively they present a very balanced attack. They rush for 216 per game on the ground, and 198 through the air. Their big weapon is not secret, and his name is RB Mark Ingram, the Heisman Trophy Winner. Over 1,500 yards rushing, and 15 rushing TD’s (18 total). Alabama holds a pretty good edge in my opinion in the running game. Mark Ingram comes to play against the best. Keep in mind that he played in 5 games against top 25 teams, including 3 top 10 teams. In those games he accounted for just over 1,000 total yards, and 6 TD’s. He averaged over 165 yards per game in those games on the ground alone. He will be up for the challenge. No doubt the rushing attack will be tested by Texas and their number 1 ranked rush defense, but their passing offense has improved each and every week. First year starter Greg McElroy completed 61% of his passes this year, and I still have question marks about his ability to make plays if Texas can put Bama in some long down and distances. Fact of the matter is this…passing got easier for Bama because he got more comfortable as a first year starter, but their rushing offense also took a lot of pressure off of him, as the ground game got better too as the year went on. Julio Jones is his main weapon and he presents some serious size, 6’4, 215 pounds. He was injured at the beginning of the year and sat out a few games so lets not read too much into his stats. He is a big time player and finished the year extremely strong. McElroy has a deep receiving corps besides Jones though…8 different guys caught at least 10 catches this year. The offensive line is their biggest strength and they are lead by Mike Johnson upfront. They have only given up 15 sacks this year, and that will be a huge focus in this game against Muschamp and the Texas defense. One of their biggest strengths was keeping drives alive this year…they were successful on 41% of their 3rd downs this year and 63% on fourth downs. This stat is key in this game, and if Texas can get Bama in long down and distances this number will be a lot lower. The only real weakness I see with Bama is their lack of a successful offense in the red zone. This was not a problem against Florida, but if Texas can make them kick FG’s instead of TD’s this game is going to be close, and the Horns might even win this game Straight up.
On to their defense led by Kirby Smart. Smart’s unit was first in the country in scoring defense this year. They were second in rush defense behind only Texas, and their total defense was only second behind TCU. Their heart and soul is linebacker Rolando McClain. Like Texas, he has a big tackle that takes up blockers in front of him so he can roam and make plays all over the field. For Bama, that guy is Terrence Cody. “Mt. Cody” takes on double teams all the time, and in some cases even triple teams. Texas will have to find an answer for this guy, and I think being dominated by Suh in the Big 12 Championship will help them realize this. Not only is Cody very, very big, but he has some very good feet. He is quick and agile. Texas will try and run the ball, but Bama gives up only 78 yards per game this year on the ground. They have not given up a 100 yard rusher in 32 straight games now. The Tide’s passing defense is where I think Texas will be able to gain an advantage. They had31 sacks this year, and that will be a very important piece to this game. If Texas can protect McCoy, which I think they can, they will be able to exploit a pass defense that I think is weaker than Texas. Bama has a talented Safety in Mark Barron as well. He too is not afraid to come up and help in the run game. He too was second on his team in tackles this year. The Tide are best when it matters most. They are 4th in the nation in 3rd down defense. They only allow opponents to move the chains 29% of the time. In the red zone they are 2nd in the country, and have only allowed teams to score 65% of the time. The defense seems to get stronger as the game plays on as well. They have only allowed 10 points in the 2nd half of their last 4 games. They too live by the turnover, and they were 5th in the nation in that category with a plus 16 ratio.
On to what I feel is going to make or break the game for the two teams…special teams. Texas has a place kicker in Hunter Lawrence that has shown on the national stage that he is one the most clutch kickers ever. His .839 FG % ranks #1 all-time in Texas history. Justin Tucker handles the punting and is averaging 40.6 yards per punt. Jordan Shipley returns punts and is averaging 13.3 yards per return this year. Not to mention he has returned 2 for TD’s.
For Bama their place kicker is Leigh Tiffin. He is the school’s all-time leader in FG’s. He too is a very, very good kicker. He is 38 of 41 this year on his FG attempts. Handling the punting duties is P.J. Fitzgerald. He is averaging 42.1 yards per punt. In the return game is another stud, Javier Arenas. He averages 16.3 yards per punt return. He also averages 29.0 yard per kick return. He is only 29 yards short of becoming the NCAA’s All-time leader in punt return yards. With another punt return for a TD he will also be the all-time NCAA career leader.
With all of the broken down I feel that this game is going to become an instant classic. I feel whoever has the ball last is going to kick the game winning FG. I believe that Texas can matchup against Alabama in the run game. I give Texas a big edge in the passing game. I give Alabama the edge in the running game. Both sides of the ball have players that can make plays. Both coaching staffs are brilliant, and both special teams are explosive. This game will come down to turnovers…who can protect the ball better and who can move the chains on 3rd down. I expect that Texas will be the one that can do that better. I am going to take Texas and the points in this game.
Texas +4.5 (10 Units) (Very Rare to be this high)
Texas +174 Moneyline (4 Units)
SPORTS INSIGHTS
Texas vs. Alabama
After being left out of last year's BCS National Championship game in favor of Oklahoma (a team Texas beat by 10 points during the regular season), the Longhorns ran the table this season, won the Big XII Championship, and now have their shot at the title. Alabama also comes into this matchup undefeated, including a 32-13 dismantling of previously #1-ranked Florida in the SEC Championship game.
Alabama opened as a 5.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and, coming off their blowout of Florida, are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Even though the public is solidly behind the Crimson Tide, the line has shrunk to -3.5 at Pinnacle, suggesting sharp money is coming down on Texas. SportsInsights' Betting Systems agree, triggering eight positive Smart Money Plays on Texas, including one at Cata/VegasVic (+17.26 units), our #1 ranked sportsbook. For the final time this season, we're following the sharps, fading the public and taking the Longhorns and the points.
Texas +4.5
Andrew Bucciarelli
4* Vancouver Canucks (-168) over Phoenix Coyotes
The teams are meeting for only the second time this season, and the Coyotes are visiting GM Place for the first time this season. The Canucks will continue to try to bank points at home as they prepare for their 14 game Olympic induced road trip. The combo of Sedin and Burrows has proven to be advantageous as Burrow has 10 goals and 18 points in 22 games. The Coyotes will be without Martin Havlat and Scottie Upshall, which is two big hits for them. At 17-6-0, the Canucks have more home victories than any team other than Chicago. At the GM Place versus the Coyotes, Vancouver is 12-2-1 in their last 15 meetings and 17-4-1 with two ties since moving from Winnipeg to the Desert. Take VANCOUVER.
3* Nashville Predators (-172) over Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes will be without center Eric Staal tonight as they try for their third consecutive road win. They also will be without Erik Cole, Chad LaRose, Scott Walker, Joe Corvo, and possibly Sergei Samsonov. Cam Ward is the most likely starter for the Canes and is 6-14-5 with 3.03 GAA on the season and 0-2-0 with 3.02 GAA against the Predators. The Canes are 1-4-0 all-time at Nashville and the Preds have won 2 in a row and three of the last four in the series. Look for a strong outing from the Preds against injury plagued Carolina. Take NASHVILLE
2* Detroit Red Wings (+115) over Los Angeles Kings
This is the second of four meetings this season as Detroit won the first matchup, 5-2. The Red Wings have held the upper hand over LA recently, winning five in a row overall against the Kings and four straight at Staples Center. Detroit has only lost twice in its last 21 contests against the Kings. Todd Bertuzzi has four points and is a plus-3 in his last five games for the Wings. Zetterberg and Cleary are aiming for their returns tonight. Detroit is second in the Western Conference with an average of 33.3 shots per game. Detroit looks to continue its domination of the Kings tonight. Take DETROIT.
2* Montreal Canadiens (-140) over Florida Panthers
A tight matchup tonight occurs between two teams that are doing the same exact thing but differently. The Canadiens are 7-3-1 in games away from home in their last 11 as the Panthers are doing great at home and poorly on the road, as they have dropped the last 8 of 11. Canadiens will be looking to start Jaroslav Halak as he is 5-1-0 with 2.15 GAA in his last six starts overall and is 3-0-0 with a 3.25 GAA in three career games against the Panthers. The Canadiens also have the league’s top power-play unit in which they convert 25.0% in the man advantage and will look to take huge advantage of the Panthers low ranked penalty kill. (bottom third of NHL, 79.0%) Look for Stephen Weiss to step up and score in this game as Montreal has won six of seven meetings with Florida. Take MONTREAL.
1* Edmonton Oilers (-130) over Columbus Blue Jackets
The worst two teams of the Western Conference head to war tonight as the Oilers look to extend the Jackets record road skid to 14 games. The teams have split the season series 1 a piece. Both clubs have just one win since December 10. There is not much to say other than poor performances all around. The Edmonton Oilers seem to be the more productive of the two and have been taking advantage of scoring opportunities unlike Columbus. Take EDMONTON.
John Ryan
Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals
Play: Ottawa Senators
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Ottawa as they take on Washington in NHL action set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-54 making 36.7 units since 1996. Play on road dogs of +100 to +200 against the money line off a home loss against a division rival and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season in the second half of the season. Ottawa is also a resounding 11-3 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team posting a win percentage of 51% to 60% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Washington is a very good team, but their biggest weakness is killing power plays. They rank 21st killing 79.8% so Ottawa’s game plan will still be to play quite physical, but to be smart and not draw foolish penalties. If they can equal PP opportunities with Washington they have an excellent chance to win. Take Ottawa.
Charlie Scott
Texas vs. Alabama
Play: Texas +4
The Dogs have been barking since New Years day in this Years bowl games and see no reason for them to stop barking tonight. In Texas we have a live, competitive dog, with an A rated defense and an offense that can rush and pass the ball, I feel Texas can win straight up, but will take the generous points. The general public will remember the Longhorns last game a sluggish last second victory over Nebraska, but keep in mind Texas is also undefeated. Las Vegas radio legend Arnie Lang wrote in his book Sports betting 101 that was published around 1990 about the theory of playing against current Heisman winners in Bowl games, this theory has been successful for years and Alabama and RB Ingram is a bet against tonight.
Joe D'Amico
Texas vs. Alabama
At last, we have 2 undefeated teams ranked at #1 and #2 in the Title Bowl game. It's nice to see the top two rated teams fighting it out for the National Championship. Between these two teams, they are 26-0 TY. This is Alabama's 3rd BCS Bowl game(0-2 SU and ATS) but their first trip to the BCS Title game while Texas has played in 3 BCS games (3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS) with a BCS Title win in 2005 over #1 USC, 41-38, as a 7 point underdog. Understand that the oddsmakers are posting a line due to Alabama's shredding of Florida along with Texas' close call over Nebraska. The general public has moved this game up even more. My line shows Alabama to be a 3 point fav. However the Tide lost LB Dont'a Hightower and WR Michael Bowman. That combo would bring my line down to a -2. The Longhorn's have the better passing team led by QB Colt McCoy who has 27 TD's, 3512 YP, and a 70.5% completion rate. No doubtedly, McCoy will look for his top target in Jordan Shipley who has 6 100+ yard receiving games TY. When Alabama is on offense, the name of their game is Heisman winner RB Mark Ingram who set an SEC record with 8 100+ yard games. The Texas "D" is allowing a mere 15.2 PPG and has only given up more than 20 once this season. The 'Bama "D" is tops in the nation giving up just 11 PPG. The biggest contrast between these two teams is the Special Teams. Texas has the best ST unit in the country. They have 7 returns for a TD this year. Their Kicker, Lawrence has the best foot in the nation. On both sides of ST's, Texas has the edge. On returns, they are deadly and will have much better field position due to the better kicker. Alabama has never beaten Texas, going 0-7-1 and being outscored by an average of 16-8 in 5 Bowl meetings. HC Saban is 4-6 SU on Bowls and HC Brown is 12-6 SU in Bowl games. Brown beat Saban 35-20 in the 02' Cotton Bowl when Saban was with LSU. Since 04' Texas is 5-0 SU in Bowl action. The team that makes the least mistakes with the best field position and special teams wins. This game will be settled by less than a TD.
Take Texas +4.5
EZWINNERS
Charlotte Bobcats +3.5
The Knicks knocked off the Bobcats 98-94 two weeks ago, but this series has been dominated by the Bobcats. Charlotte had won five straight meetings before that lose and they are 6-0 against the spread in those games. The Bobcats are playing well as they have won three straight games and five out of their last seven. The Knicks have also been playing well, but they have not thrived in the role of a small favorite as they are only 2-7 against the spread as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The addition of Stephen Jackson is starting to show in this Charlotte team. I look for them to pick u the win here. Take the points.