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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, January 7,2009

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Karl Garrett

Charlotte +4 at NEW YORK

Only game in the NBA this Thursday, and it should hold some meaning to Larry Brown who was pretty much run out of the Big Apple a few seasons ago, as the Knicks and Brown were not a good mix.

G-Man will take the points in this one, as Charlotte comes into Madison Square Garden with wins in their last 3, and 5 of their last 7 on their side.

New York has been playing some solid ball of late as well, as the Knickerbockers have won their last pair, and 6 of their last 9 straight up.

Series numbers show the Bobcats with wins in 4 of the last 5 meetings, while they have covered in ALL 5 of the showdowns.

Charlotte is also on a 7-3 spread run versus the Atlantic Division, while New York has dropped 9 of their last 11 against the spread versus the Southeast Division.

G-Man riding the Bobcats in this one.

2♦ CHARLOTTE

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:35 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Charlotte at N.Y. KNICKS -4

I improved to 43-19 with my last 62 FREE selections, including 20-5, when I nailed Wednesday's winner with Golden State getting the job done in Minnesota. Tonight, I'm back on the NBA hardwood with a winner on the Knicks as they host Charlotte.

These teams just squared off at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20 with the Knicks getting the win and I don’t see much different with this matchup. Go ahead and lay the chalk wit New York.

The Knicks have actually been playing good basketball lately, taking six of their last nine (5-4 ATS), including impressive wins on Friday at Atlanta and Sunday at home against the Pacers. New York went to Atlanta and got a 112-108 victory as 11-point ‘dogs, then on Sunday they bombed Indiana 132-89 as 9 ½-point home favorites.

They are getting great all-around play from guard Chris Duhon and center David Lee and if this team continues to score points, they are going to compete with anybody. They’ve averaged 106.2 points a game in their last five games and shot 48.8 percent from the field.

Charlotte only manages 89.1 points a game on the road and just 92.8 overall. They aren’t a high-scoring club, relying on defense to get the job done. But there’s too much talent offense on the Knicks’ roster for that tonight.

Lay the chalk and play New York.

2♦ N.Y. KNICKS

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:35 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Charlotte at NEW YORK -3'

UNLV gave BYU a tougher test than I anticipated Wednesday, sticking me with a loss with my complimentary selection. My record is still pretty strong, however, standing at 53-34-1 over the past 88 days, including a 36-21-1 run over the last 58!

I'm going with the lone NBA game on the board today to get back in the win column, and I'm taking the much improved Knicks to get me there.

New York is 11-6 in its past 17 games after starting the season 3-14, and a playoff spot is now a real possibility in the Big Apple.

The Knicks are actually playing defense these days, and David Lee, Danilo Gallinari and Chris Duhon are leading the way on the offensive end for New York.

Madison Square Garden actually has become a friendly environment for the Knicks once again, as they are 7-2 there over their last nine games after losing eight of their first nine at home to start the season.

The Bobcats have really had problems on the road this season, going 3-14, and that's with road wins in their last two games. But I don't see the team's success away from Charlotte continuing tonight.

New York has won and covered in three of its last four games, and I see another solid outing for the team tonight at the Garden. Go with the Knicks to get the job done against the Bobcats.

2♦ NEW YORK

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:36 am
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Brett Atkins

I'm 16-12-1 with my last 29 free selections and I've got a winner for you tonight on the college hardwood as I am playing Penn State at home against Big Ten rival Michigan.

This looks like an easy winner with Penn State tonight as the Nittany Lions are a solid 6-2 at home while Michigan is 0-3 on the road this season, 1-5 if you include neutral site contests with the one win coming in overtime against Creighton.

Penn State got hammered at home by a very good Wisconsin team on Sunday, falling 63-46 as a five-point underdog. The Lions play wonderful defense at home, allowing just 59.5 points a game and just 40.5 percent shooting.

On the opposite side, Michigan gives up 71.3 points a game and 50 percent shooting when the Wolverines take to the road.

The home team has dominated this series, winning the last five straight, including Penn State’s 73-58 blowout win at home last year as two-point favorites. The home team is 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine clashes and the Lions are 3-0-1 ATS against Michigan at home in the last four meetings.

The Wolverines are on ATS slides of 16-33-3 on the road, 2-6 overall and 15-33-3 on the road against teams with winning home records. Penn State is 4-1 ATS on Thursdays and 7-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

Play Penn State at home in this one!

4♦ PENN STATE

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:37 am
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Jay McNeil

I gave out an easy winner Wednesday with my free play, taking the Spurs to triumph at home against the reeling Pistons. That victory pushed my record to 10-5 over the last 15 days, and I'm following that up with another NBA winner today!

The Knicks are not the same team they were after the first month of the season. They are 11-6 since the beginning of December and are actually competing for a playoff spot after starting the season 3-14.

New York's turnaround has been especially dramatic at home, where the team has won seven of its last nine games after starting 1-8 at Madison Square Garden.

One of the primary reasons the Knicks are doing so much better is they are playing solid defense now, and David Lee and Danilo Gallinari have developed into an effective 1-2 scoring punch for New York.

Charlotte is a significantly better team this season, but the Bobcats still struggle on the road, going just 3-14 thus far.

The Knicks are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games, and I expect them to have a strong showing at home tonight against the Bobcats. Take New York in this one.

2♦ NEW YORK

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:38 am
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Joel Tyson

Free play winner on the Hawks on Wednesday night. 8-4 the last 12 days for free.

You lose at home to Binghamton, and I would say you have some issues. That is the case facing La Salle on Thursday, as some how the Explorers lost at home to Binghampton their last time on the hardwood. Something tells me they were perhaps looking ahead to this game with conference rival Xavier.

I will take the points with the home team, as Xavier has lost all 3 of their true road games this season, so just winning this game would mean something for the Musketeers.

Chances of the outright for the visitors look good, as Xavier has handled La Salle 8 of the last 10 times they have faced them, but it is La Salle that has gone 5-2 against the spread the last 7 times these schools have met.

Take the home dog as they give Xavier a run for their money on Thursday.

2♦ LA SALLE

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:39 am
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Chuck O'Brien

Take La Salle plus the points against Xavier in Atlantic-10 hoops action on Thursday.

The Musketeers are 0-for-3 on the road this season, and since a 3-0 start, they’re a .500 team overall (5-5 SU and ATS). And while Xavier has had a lot of success in this rivalry with La Salle, it’s more on-court success than at the betting window, as the Musketeers are 1-3 ATS in their last four meetings with the Explorers and 2-5 ATS in the last seven (all as an underdog).

While the Explorers aren’t anything special themselves, they’re battle tested, having faced several top-notch opponents (including Villanova, Kansas and Oklahoma State). They also held their own against Cornell (78-75 loss) – the same Cornell that nearly upset No. 1 Kansas on the road last night.

Xavier is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five when laying less than seven points on the road. Meanwhile, La Salle has cashed in five of its last six as an underdog of seven points or less and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against A-10 opponents.

1♦ LA SALLE

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 8:40 am
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Cajun Sports

2* Xavier Musketeers -5.5 over LaSalle Explorers

Xavier is playing the middle game of a three-game road swing that saw them drop the opener at Wake Forest 96 to 92 as a 2.5 point road underdog. Xavier has bounced back each time this season after suffering a straight up loss and we expect them to do the same here tonight. The Musketeers average 79.2 points per game on 45.8 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from behind the arc. Xavier has averaged almost 80 points per game versus teams that would normally allow only 66 points per contest. Defensively they are allowing 68.8 points per game on 40 percent shooting. Xavier is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss, 6-1-1 ATS after a straight up loss, 36-29 ATS as a favorite, 12-5 ATS in the month of January, 17-8-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 8-1 ATS following a game where they scored 90 or more points. LaSalle enters tonight’s game riding a three-game losing skid with their last game a loss at Binghamton 66 to 61 of course there was no line on that contest. LaSalle averages 71.4 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting from the field and on the defensive end of the floor they allow 72.2 points per game on 44.0 percent shooting. The Explorers are 8-14 ATS at home, 2-6 ATS versus non-conference opponents, 1-5 ATS facing a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS as an underdog. This series has been dominated by Xavier posting a record of 17-4 SU and 12-7 ATS. We expect the Musketeers to control the pace and tempo of this contest which in turn will give them an easy straight up and against the spread victory on Thursday night in the City of Brotherly Love.

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 9:07 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Charlotte Bobcats at New York Knicks

How good is Mike D'Antoni? The Knicks' front office "threw in the towel" before the season began, basically putting the franchise in wait-mode, until June's free agency, when NY makes a run at "King James." But instead of "mailing it in," D'Antoni has his team believing completely in what they're doing and the team is beginning to win basketball games. Following a loss to Orlando to wrap-up the month of November, the Knicks were 3-14 SU, and things looked rather bleak in the Garden. But since then, New York has gone 11-6 SU, including 6-3 in their last nine. The biggest difference has come on the defensive end of the floor where the Knicks are actually playing defense! In fact, the Knicks have allowed just 93.6 ppg to their last 14 opponents. The Bobcats have taken two of three in this season's series, and they have also played much better basketball of late, riding into tonight's game having won three in a row. But I have to side with the "defensively sound" Knicks, who're on a 7-2 run in front of the home folks. They're a confident basketball team right now, and believe it or not, trail the final sport in the Eastern Conference playoff standings by just a single game. Okay, it's a bit early for that kind of talk, but you get the picture. Look for the Knicks to remain unbeaten in 2010 with a big win and cover over Charlotte.

Play on: New York

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 9:33 am
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Stephen Nover

George Mason +5 at NORTHEASTERN

Northeastern has played well at home, but is in a letdown spot after upsetting Virginia Commonwealth on the road this past Monday. Northeastern's win snapped VCU's 11-game home winning streak.

These are two of the better teams in the Colonial Athletic Association. George Mason matches up well to Northeastern because the Patriots can play half-court, can rebound and doesn't rely just on one scorer.

Northeastern was successfully able to disrupt Virginia Commonwealth. That won't happen with George Mason because the Patriots don't mind a slower pace.

The Patriots have won five of their past seven games. If you exclude a 27-point defeat to Radford, the Patriots have held their foes to 41.8 shooting from the floor during this span. George Mason is shooting 45.8 percent from the floor during this time frame.

The Patriots also have gone to the free throw line 71 more times than their opponents during the past seven games. This matchup should go down to the wire.

2♦ GEORGE MASON

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 9:54 am
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JIM FEIST

NEW ORLEANS / DENVER
TAKE: UNDER

Denver has shot to the top of the Sun Belt West standings with defense, allowing 66.5 ppg -- third best in the Sun Belt. This is a long road trip for a New Orleans teams, heading to the cold, thin mountain air of Denver. Neither team is stellar offensively, with Denver ranked 9th in the Sun Belt in scoring offense, New Orleans is dead last, plus a poor shooting team at 40% from the field. New Orleans is tops in scoring defense (64.8 ppg) with a slow down style. Denver is 2-0 under the total the last two games and comes off a loss to Troy where they tallied just 46 points. Don't look for an offensive show in this college basketball battle, play New Orleans/Denver Under the total.

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 9:55 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS

New Orleans at Denver

In case you have yet to hear, the New Orleans basketball program is in a state of flux right now as they are going to eventually drop down to Division III, thus eliminating scholarships. That's a huge distraction for the players and the major reason they had lost seven straight before beating "Isiah Thompson" and Florida International. The Privateers are just 8-18 ATS off a spread win. Denver has struggled at the betting window all year, but is also 9-1 SU in home games. They are 54-26 ATS in the month of January and 41-23 ATS at home off a road game.

Play on: Denver

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 11:01 am
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Rocketman

Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
Play: Jacksonville State +2

Jacksonville State is scoring 78.4 points per game at home this year. Jacksonville State is 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs Eastern Kentucky since 1997. Colonels are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Colonels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Colonels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Colonels are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Colonels are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Jacksonville St. We'll recommend a small play on Jacksonville State tonight!

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 11:02 am
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LT Profits

Michigan vs Penn State

Now we realize that the Michigan Wolverines are 0-3 on the road, but the Penn State Nittany Lions are nothing special and we like the matchup of a Michigan offense that protects the ball well vs. a Penn State defense that does not force many turnovers.

The Wolverines were upset at Indiana in their first Big Ten road game, but the Hoosiers do look improved in their second year under Tom Crean, and the two Michigan non-conference losses came at Kansas and Utah, so this game may be their easiest road assignment thus far. Thus, you can basically toss the fast that the Wolverines are allowing 71.3 points per game on the road, given the quality of the opposition to date.

What we found very interesting after checking the Pomeroy Ratings is that Michigan has only turned the ball over on 15.1 percent of their possessions, which is actually the second lowest turnover percentage in the entire country, while the Nittany Lions defense only forces turnovers on 17.7 percent of possessions, ranking them a dismal 306 out of 347 Division I teams in that category.

This means that Michigan can basically do whatever they want to do on the offensive end. That is significant because they are hitting a very good 51.4 percent of their two-point shots as it is, so if they improve on that as expected here tonight, we could easily see them hitting the 70-point mark here, especially when you consider that they are averaging 70.6 points in their last five games.

As for Penn State, they are a mediocre 8-6 straight up overall and just 5-6-1 against the spread, and while they are 6-2 at home, they are only 2-4 ATS in their lined home contests. Their second home loss came on Sunday, when they were routed here 63-46 by Wisconsin. In fact, the last three Lions victories came against American University, Gardner-Webb and Maryland-Baltimore County, so even though Michigan is not a top tier Big Ten team, they are still a step up from the teams Penn State has been beating.

Look for Michigan to post their first road win of the season in this spot.

Pick: Michigan +2

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 11:02 am
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Tom Freese

Western Kentucky at South Alabama
Prediction: South Alabama

South Alabama is in a 39-12 ATS Super System that says to Play On all teams when the line is +3 to -3 if they are off a Conference road win if they have just one starter back from last years team. Western Kentucky is in a 39-17 ATS Play Against System that says to Go Against any team that won straight up in 4 or more of their last of their last 5 games if in their last game both teams scored under 60 points. 10* PLAY ON SOUTH ALABAMA +

 
Posted : January 7, 2010 11:03 am
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