LARRY NESS
Michigan @ Penn State
PICK: Penn State -1.5
The Nittany Lions won 27 games last season and their first-ever NIT title (only other postseason tourney title was Penn State's 1991 Atlantic 10 tournament win). Gone from LY's team are the 6-5 Cornley (14.4-6.4) and guard Pringle (12.8), leaving only Talor Battle from the Nittany Lions' "big three." Battle is this year's lone double digit scorer (18.8-5.7-3.6), although the 6-6 Jackson (8.4-4.4), the 6-8 Brooks (7.9-3.6), the 6-9 Jones (6.9-5.7) and guard Babb (7.5) are returning players who can all contribute. Freshman guard Frazier (7.1) and freshman forward Edwards (6.3-4.1) are also both finding time in DeChellis' rotation. Michigan opened 3-0 and was ranked No. 15 nationally (why?) but the Wolverines were just 6-6 before last Sunday's 73-64 home win over then-No. 15 Ohio State. However, with Evan Turner still sidelined, the Buckeyes are hardly a top-15 team. Michigan is really a "two-man" team, 6-5 junior guard Harris (19.8-7.0-4.9) and 6-8 senior Sims (16.7-7.0). These teams split their two games last season with the home team winning and easily covering each time. After an 0-2 Big 10 start, expect the Nittany Lions to get that first conference win here tonight vs an overrated Michigan squad.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -½ -1.12 over Ottawa
Have to figure that this line wouldn’t be much different if Spezza and Alfredsson were both in the lineup but it should be. It’s not common to find an underlay on a popular favorite but this one sure appears to be. The Sens are not only without its two best players but both goalies have very little confidence left and it seems like every other game one of them is getting yanked. Leclaire is a soft goal waiting to happen and Elliott is pretty much the same. The Caps got off the mattress with a solid game at home against the Habs in AO’s first game with the “C” on his jersey. The whole team rallied and played great and it’s hard to imagine them regressing here. The Sens offense has taken a serious hit and one really has to wonder how they’re going to keep pace here with its two biggest threats on the rack and very shaky goaltending. If the Pens are -½ -1.11 over Philly, how the hell is Washington just -½ -1.12 over Ottawa? Play: Washington -½ -1.12 (Risking 2.24 units to win 2).
Detroit +1.14 over LOS ANGELES
Slowly but surely the Red Wings are getting some healthy bodies back and with each player that returns the Red Wings become more dangerous. Tonight it’ll be Zetterberg and Cleary back and they join Valterri Filppula, who returned about four or five games ago. The Red Wings are too smart and too good to not realize that they won’t be able to just turn on the switch. They sit five points out of a playoff spot right now and know they have to make a move real soon. This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all year yet they’ve still hung in there and are in a pretty sweet position to make a run. With three of its top players back you can expect an inspired effort tonight. Lost in all of its injury problems has been the outstanding goaltending of Jimmy Howard. This guy is getting primed for the playoffs and he deserves it. The Kings are tough as shoe leather but give me the Red Wings with a tag in a game they’re surely going to have some fire in its belly for. Play: Detroit +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +1.17 over EDMONTON
Ok, this is the last time I go back to this Blue Jacket well should they let me down again. We’ll see how much the team wants to save Hitchcock’s job because should they lose here he may be out of one. The Jackets were destroyed in Vancouver on Tuesday but jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead and things were looking good. Then disaster struck when Vancouver scored two goals 24 seconds apart and added one more before the first period ended to take a 3-2 lead into the locker room after one period. That took the life right out of the Blue Jackets and it was over. They’ll be no hot goaltender to contend with here, as the Oilers are a team without a reliable one. This is a game the Jackets have to come out for and play like it’s the seventh game of a playoff series. Never before has this Jackets squad needed a win like they do here and if they have any heart whatsoever, they’ll get it. Play: Columbus +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
NASHVILLE -½ -1.08 over Carolina
The Preds have won three of its last four with only loss over that stretch coming against the then red-hot Flames. Quietly, these Preds are having an outstanding year and in fact, are just two points behind the Flames for third place in the West. They’re also tied with Vancouver and Los Angeles at 53 points. This team rarely loses to inferior competition and the Canes fit the bill indeed. Not only are the Canes brutal but they’ll be without Eric Staal tonight (death in the family), not to mention Scott Walker, Chad LaRose, Erik Cole, Joe Corvo and Sergei Samsonov. I’m not really sure whom that leaves to score some goals or to create offense so if you wager on the Canes here you might have to hope that Cam Ward gets the first goalie hat trick in NHL history. Are you kidding me? Seriously, how can the Preds lose this one? Play: Nashville -½ -1.06 (Risking 3.24 units to win 3).
Charley Sutton
I came through in easy fashion yesterday as Troy and Central Michigan go well Over the Total, just like I said they would.
I’m handing you another winner as I’m switching gears and coming at it with some strong college hoops action as I’m taking Penn State at home against visiting Michigan.
Coming into this game the Wolverines are 7-6 SU this year, but have covered in just 3 of their 9 lined games. On the road this year Michigan has gone just 2-4 ATS away from Ann Arbor and is just 1-5 SU in roadies. In that stretch the Wolverines have been outscored, on average, by 11 points per game (71.3-60.3).
Now they battle a Penn State team that’s gone 2-1 SU and ATS its last 3 games against Michigan, including 2 straight wins at home, beating the Wolverines, on average, by 11.5 points per game.
Tonight, Penn State will cash in again and get over on the Wolverines.
3 ♦ PENN STATE
DUNKEL INDEX
Texas vs. Alabama
The Longhorns look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Texas is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4)
Game 267-268: Texas vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 113.727; Alabama 111.878
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4); Over
NBA
Charlotte at New York
The Bobcats look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Charlotte is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+4).
Game 701-702: Charlotte at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.265; New York 118.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+4); Under
NCAAB
Xavier at LaSalle
The Musketeers look to take advantage of a LaSalle team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Xavier is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Musketeers favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-5)
Game 703-704: Xavier at LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 68.008; LaSalle 58.641
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 5
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-5)
Game 705-706: Western Kentucky at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 59.541; South Alabama 59.829
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+2)
Game 707-708: Troy at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 53.590; Florida Atlantic 52.235
Dunkel Line: Troy by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 1
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-1)
Game 709-710: Loyola-Chicago at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 52.778; Cleveland State 58.826
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+8 1/2)
Game 711-712: Illinois-Chicago at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 50.219; Youngstown State 53.771
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+4 1/2)
Game 713-714: George Mason at Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 55.848; Northeastern 59.656
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 4
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 7
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+7)
Game 715-716: Michigan at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 60.957; Penn State 66.958
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 6
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-1 1/2)
Game 717-718: UL-Monroe at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 45.284; Florida International 45.661
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Florida International by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+1 1/2)
Game 719-720: Middle Tennessee State at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 50.851; Arkansas State 55.308
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-1 1/2)
Game 721-722: North Texas at UL-Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 48.675; UL-Lafayette 54.372
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 3
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-3)
Game 723-724: New Orleans at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 41.664; Denver 57.687
Dunkel Line: Denver by 16
Vegas Line: Denver by 13
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-13)
Game 725-726: UC-Irvine at CS-Northridge
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 49.787; CS-Northridge 51.137
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+7 1/2)
Game 727-728: Long Beach State at CS-Fullerton
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 58.508; CS-Fullerton 52.202
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-2 1/2)
Game 729-730: Furman at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 46.240; Elon 46.855
Dunkel Line: Elon by 1
Vegas Line: Elon by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+1 1/2)
Game 731-732: Wofford at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 56.610; NC Greensboro 49.891
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Wofford by 8
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (+8)
Game 733-734: Morehead State at Tennessee Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 52.870; Tennessee Tech 50.593
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-1)
Game 735-736: Idaho State at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 45.838; Northern Arizona 54.464
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 4
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-4)
Game 737-738: Tennessee-Martin at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 44.691; Austin Peay 56.146
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 15
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+15)
Game 739-740: Murray State at Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 59.219; Tennessee State 48.276
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 11
Vegas Line: Murray State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-10)
Game 741-742: Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 52.137; Jacksonville State 49.825
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-1 1/2)
Game 743-744: Weber State at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.545; Northern Colorado 63.461
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 8
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-7 1/2)
NHL
Chicago at Boston
The Bruins look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 games overall. Boston is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115)
Game 1-2: Chicago at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.056; Boston 13.466
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Over
Game 3-4: NY Rangers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.635; Atlanta 11.252
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 5-6: Ottawa at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.233; Washington 11.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-200); Over
Game 7-8: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.514; Pittsburgh 11.721
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-185); Over
Game 9-10: Florida at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.019; Montreal 11.355
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-145); Over
Game 11-12: Carolina at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.714; Nashville 11.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-175); Over
Game 13-14: Columbus at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.086; Edmonton 10.448
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+110); Under
Game 15-16: Phoenix at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.587; Vancouver 12.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+155); Under
Game 17-18: St. Louis at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.939; Anaheim 10.901
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+140); Under
Game 19-20: Detroit at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.272; Los Angeles 12.082
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under
GREG SHAKER
Texas Longhorns at Alabama Crimson Tide
Play: Texas +4
You should know a couple of things about this selection. Number 1 is that if I pick against an SEC Team in a game this big, I must really like it. Number 2 is that if I pick such a high profile game, I must really like it. There are going to be a lot of handicapping services that make a Big Play on this game, either for Bama or the Longhorns. That is because they are looking for an outlet to make mOney. I am going to give it away free on Twitter, and on a Newsletter I am sending out today. I was just waiting for the line to move to it's current number to tell you to bet it. Why Bet it? Why Bet it so hard? Because simply put, Texas is a better team. Texas has more motivation to show everyone they have a better team. And the Better Team is getting points! Oh My Goodness! I am not going to bore you with stats for this play. Stats are statisticians and I am not one of those. Those guys are boring and are least likely to have any kind of real life. I have a life and I like it. This line opened at Alabama -4.5. The line dropped to -3.5 despite money being poured on the Tide by Bettors of This Nation and the World. It is now at -4 and that is because the Big Money has arrived. That would include my Big Money. Texas is not your typical Big 12 Team because they play defense and they play it well. Alabama is somewhat offensively challenged and we will see that tonight. They don't have the same quick strike potential that the Horns have. They have not had to listen for a month about how they are going to be beat. Anyone remember the Texas Win over USC a few years ago? I had Texas then. This is the same scenerio. It pains me to bet against Alabama. But my pain will be rewarded. I don't know where this line is going today but I am grabbing the 4 points.
Bettorsworld
Texas vs Alabama
When this season started everyone assumed it would be Texas taking on a SEC team in the BCS National Title Game. Most people assumed that team was going to be Florida since Florida was the defending BCS Title Champ and they had QB Tim Tebow coming back, but after Alabama completely dismantled the Gators in the SEC Title Game there was no doubt who was the King of the SEC.
Alabama won games this season just how Head Coach Nick Saban likes; with strong defense and a powerful rushing attack. Alabama’s defense is arguably the best in the country allowing just 11 points and just 242 yards per game. Alabama is looking to add to their 13 National Titles, and if they are going to be able to claim another title it’s going to come down to how this defense handles QB Colt McCoy and the Longhorns.
After Texas was kept out of the BCS National Title game last season even after they beat Oklahoma head to head, this has been the goal for the Longhorns for the whole 2009 season. It was BCS Title Game or bust for Texas, and they were able to finish their season a perfect 13-0, but they still have one game to go to complete their undefeated season. This is the game we have been waiting to see all season, so lets see just how both teams matchup.
Quarterbacks
TEXAS - It is pretty obvious who has the advantage in this matchup, but it might not be by as much as one would think. There is no denying that Colt McCoy is a great QB and an even better leader on the field. In McCoy’s career he has thrown for 13,244 yards and 112 TDs. He is deadly accurate and has done a great job his whole career of not turning the ball over. The one question mark with McCoy is this season when he has faced tough defenses like Oklahoma and Nebraska he has struggled. Against Oklahoma he only had 127 yards passing 1 TD and 1 INT, and against Nebraska McCoy had one of his worst games as Texas’ starting Quarterback completing just 20/36 passes for 184 yards and 3 INTs. He is going to have to improve those numbers if Texas is going to have a chance to get the win here.
BAMA - On the opposing sideline you have QB Greg McElroy who has been streaky for most of the season, but he has really turned things around in his last 2 games. Ever since he led his team down the field for the game winning TD against Auburn McElroy has been playing with a sense of confidence that he has lacked all season. Against Florida he was very efficient going 12/18 for 239 yards and 1 TD. This Crimson Tide offense is not the type of offense that throws the ball all around. They establish the run first and keep pounding the ball. All McElroy needs to do is manage the game exactly like he did against Florida and make the throws when he is asked to. If he can do that this Alabama football team is going to be very difficult to beat.
ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
Running Backs
BAMA - This is an easy one when Alabama has the Heisman trophy winner in their backfield. Mark Ingram has had a great season rushing for 1542 yards and 15 TDs and he has added 322 yards receiving and 3 TDs. Ingram isn’t used a lot in the passing game, but when he is he can make you pay. This Nick Saban coached team is going to run, run, and run some more to control time of possession and keep McCoy and the Longhorn offense off the field. Ingram will get the majority of those carries, but True Freshman RB Trent Richardson is a 5’11 220lb bowling ball that wears down a defense. He has gotten more and more carries as the season has gone on, so he should get quite a few carries in this game. That 1-2 punch of Ingram and Richardson is very difficult to stop, and with their running style they love to wear down the opposing defenses.
TEXAS – The Longhorns do not use their RB’s very much, but RB Tre’ Newton could play a big role in this game if he can bring a spark to this offense when his number is called. He has rushed for over 500 yards on the season and 6TDs, but those numbers mean nothing in this game all that matters is how effective he can be to take some pressure off of McCoy and the passing game. If Newton is unable to get things going on the ground expect to see Coach Mack Brown to use Colt McCoy in the running game too if they are needing a spark on the ground.
ADVANTAGE: BAMA
Wide Receivers
TEXAS – This is a tough matchup to decide who has the advantage, because Alabama has some talented WRs, but since they don’t use their WRs as much as Texas does you have to give the edge to the Longhorns and WR Jordan Shipley. Besides McCoy, Shipley will play the biggest role in Texas’ success. If he has a big game he can really change a game in a hurry. Shipley has over 1300 yards receiving this year and 11 TDs. He is McCoy’s favorite target, so how effective Shipley can be against this stout Alabama secondary is going to go a long way to deciding who gets the win here.
BAMA – While the Crimson Tide might not use their WRs like Texas does, they still will play a big role in this game. They have one of the most talented WRs in the country in Julio Jones. Jones was slowed with an injury early in the year, but he has been much more effective late in the year when he was finally healthy. Alabama is going to pound the ball on the ground and establish the run, but Nick Saban loves to use his running game to set up the deep pass, so expect Julio to get a few opportunities to change this game in a hurry with the deep ball. Also expect TE Colin Peek to play a role in this ballgame, because he has been McElroy’s safety blanket in several games this year when McElroy needs to get out of a jam.
ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
Offensive Line
BAMA – Any offensive line that has opened holes for a Heisman Trophy winning RB has to get the nod in this matchup. The Crimson Tide offensive line is big and strong and open u p a lot of holes for their talented RBs. Not only do they open holes with their run blocking, but their pass blocking has been very solid too which it’s very hard to be good at both. This line has only allowed 15 sacks all year, so we have to give the nod to the Crimson Tide offensive line.
TEXAS – This is one of the matchups that could go a long way in deciding this game. Alabama has arguably the best defensive line in the country, and that is not good news for a Longhorn Offensive Line that has allowed 30 sacks all season. They have got to do a better job of keeping McCoy off his back or McCoy could have another tough game ahead of him.
ADVANTAGE: BAMA
Defensive Line
BAMA: It is the Alabama front seven that makes this Crimson Tide defense the best in the country. They are anchored in the middle by the huge mass of humanity DT Mount Cody. Cody is some dominant that he forces the opposing offensive line to double team him which opens things up for the rest of this defense. Alabama DE Marcell Dareus has been one of those defenders that has benefitted by having Mount Cody in the middle. Dareus leads Alabama in sacks with 6.5, and we expect him to be in the Texas backfield all night.
TEXAS: Although Alabama has the nod in this matchup that doesn’t mean the Longhorns aren’t very talented up front defensively. Sergio Kindle was moved to DE this season and has had a solid season so far with 47 tackles and 3 sacks. Texas DE Sam Acho leads the Longhorns in sacks with 8 and fumble recovers with 4. Throw in DT Lamarr Houston who leads the team in tackles for loss with 14 you have a very good defensive line.
ADVANTAGE: BAMA
Linebackers
BAMA: Any LB group that has Rolando McClain gets the nod in that matchup. McClain is as good as it gets when it comes to Linebackers, and he has had another great season. McClain has 101 total tackles on the season including 12.5 tackles for loss. He will be flying all over the field, so he should have a big impact in this game. LB Eryk Anders also added 12.5 tackles for loss, and True Freshman LB Nico Johnson and Senior LB Cory Reamer have also played a big role in Alabama’s dominant defense this season.
TEXAS: Texas LB Rod Muckelroy leads the Longhorns in tackles with 78 total tackles. Texas doesn’t have the big names at Linebacker, but they have a very solid core group with LB Emmanuel Acho, Keenan Robinson, and Dustin Earnest. This is a good disciplined Linebacker core who will play a big role in stopping this Alabama rushing attack.
ADVANTAGE: BAMA
Defensive Backs
BAMA: We were looking for an area defensively where we could give Texas the advantage, and while Texas has a very good secondary we just couldn’t give them the nod over this Crimson Tide Secondary. The secondary led by Mark Barron, Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson, and Kareem Jackson is arguably one of the better defensive backfields in the country. Arenas and Barron are 2nd and 3rd in tackles for the Crimson Tide and Mark Barron leads the SEC in interceptions with 7. This secondary is going to make QB Colt McCoy’s night very difficult. This secondary is ranked 2nd in the SEC in pass defense allowing just 164 yards per game.
TEXAS: The one reason why we almost gave Texas secondary the nod is because of DB Earl Thomas. Thomas leads the Big 12 in interceptions with 8. This Texas secondary is ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in pass defense allowing just 189 yards a game in the air, so they should be able to contain QB Greg McElroy pretty well, but Alabama’s passing game is not what is going to beat this Texas football team that’s going to depend on Texas’ front seven.
ADVANTAGE: BAMA
SPECIAL TEAMS
BAMA: Javier Arenas can change a game in a blink of an eye with one of his returns. Arenas is 2nd in the SEC in Punt/Kick returns averaging 16 and 29 yards per return. Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin is also first in the SEC in Field Goals making 29/33 kicks and is first in the SEC in scoring averaging 9.6 points per game.
TEXAS: Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence is first in the Big 12 in scoring averaging 9.7 points per game and he has connected with 22/25 of his kicks. WR Jordan Shipley is also very capable of taking over a game with a kick/punt return much like Javier Arenas is. This game very well could come down to special teams.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
On paper you have to give the nod to the Alabama Crimson Tide. Texas might have a slim edge offensively, because of QB Colt McCoy, but Alabama also has a very good offensive attack to go with their #1 ranked defense. This game all comes down to how effective QB Colt McCoy can be against this Alabama defense. With Texas’ weak rushing attack Alabama’s front seven will have no problem stopping the run, so McCoy is going to have to put this team on his shoulders and win this game through the air, and we just don’t think McCoy is going to be able to make enough plays against this Alabama secondary to get the job done. We expect the Crimson Tide defense to give their offense great field position all game, and when you give RB Mark Ingram a short field to work with he is going to make you pay. We see Ingram having another big game, and this new found confidence that QB Greg McElroy has will allow him to make enough plays in the passing game to get the job done.
BY THE NUMBERS
The numbers tell an interesting story. If you have been following us for any length of time, you know how we like to break a game down. Using the methods and stats we rely on, the game actually breaks down as a game decided by less than a field goal. In fact, one method we use to get a predicted score on the game comes up Alabama 19 Texas 18. Close huh?
The teams have played a schedule even in strength, so you can also take a look at yards per point numbers here. But when you do, not much of a surprise as Texas gets the nod offensivly while Alabama gets the not defensively. Season to date overall numbers show Texas with an 11 offensively and a 17 defensively making them +6 overall. Alabama would be a 13 offensively and a 22 defensively making them a +9. A 3 point edge overall for Bama.
If you look at just each teams numbers on the road you'll find Texas with an 11 and an 18 for a +7 while Alabama would have a 13 on offense and an 18 on defense for a +5, a 2 point edge for Texas.
Both teams are in the top 10 in the Nation in turnover margin, as you might expect, so no edge there.
The numbers simply tell us that we have two great teams that deserve to be here. One better offensively and the other better defensively.
THE BOTTOM LINE
After spending a season handicapping college football, including many games involving these two teams, you get to feel as though you're wired in. You get a feel for these teams that goes beyond the numbers. It goes much further than this season actually. You get a feel for these teams and programs over the years.
Alabama has been a classic team on the rise under Nick Saban, each year getting a little better. Each year knocking on the door. Last year they got the door cracked open and stuck their foot in, only to have Florida slam that door in the SEC title game. With a National Title being the goal, you can't fault their loss to a Utah team on a mission in last years Sugar Bowl.
This year, they did more than crack the door open. They knocked the door down in the SEC Title game by dominating Florida and now find themselves one game from that goal they have been getting closer to each year. Like Utah a year ago, it's now Alabama that's on a mission.
Mack Brown and the Texas program have had recent success, winning the National Title in 2005. Alabama hasn't won a title since 1992 under Gen Stallings. It's much tougher in our opinion to get to this game out of the SEC than it is the Big 12. Who knows when/if Alabama will get another crack at it.
It's Alabama's performance in big high profile games that puts them over the top for us. There aren't many. LSU perhaps, a game which Alabama won 24-15, but more recently, their performance against Florida in the SEC title game. This was a Florida team that had one of the best, if not the best offense in the entire country. An offense with more weapons, that comes at you in more directions than Texas, and Alabama simply shut them down. It was also a Florida team that had perhaps one of the top 3 defenses in the nation. Alabama won the game 32-13 folks.
It you look at the two teams on the Texas dance card that most closely resemble Alabama, it would be Oklahoma and Nebraska. Those were the two lowest point production games of the season for Texas, getting by Oklahoma 16-13 and lucky to get by Nebraska 13-12. Alabama is better than both of those teams, no question about it. No other teams that Texas has played all year come even remotely close to the talent that Alabama has defensively. They averaged 14 points against Oklahoma and Nebraska......how many you figure they'll manage against Bama?
No offense to Mark Ingram, but there are probably more than a few running backs that could have won the Heisman Trophy this year if they had the opportunity to run the ball behind this Alabama offensive line. Alabama will be able to run the ball. Texas, likely, will not. Under that scenario, there is no way Colt McCoy wins this game with his arm alone.
Alabama wins this game. We are going to take the pointspread out of the equation in this one. We have had a successful college football season as a result of our 7-1 showing in the Bowls. We can afford to pay a little more in this spot in order to insure that the number doesn't beat us. We're going to play Alabama on the money line. Shop around. You should be able to get -170 or less. Texas money should come in dropping that price even more before the game finally kicks off.
5* Alabama PK -170 or Less
ALEX SMART
Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks
PICK: Charlotte Bobcats +4
If you had five guesses at who the top defensive team was in the NBA, would you come to the Bobcats? Alas, Charlotte's 93.0 points per game tops the league. The bad news is that its offense has just been awful this year, ranking 22nd or worse in every major category, including a pitiful 92.8 points per game. If the Bobcats are going to have success in this game against the Knicks, F Stephen Jackson, F Gerald Wallace, and G Raymond Felton are going to have to have monster outings. The trio is averaging over half of the points that this team has scored on the year (51.5 per game) and is also chipping in with assists (10.5 per game) and rebounding (19.0 per game).
If there's a cure for the common poor offense, it's the Knicks defense. New York is giving up an alarming 102.7 points per game in the '09-'10 season, and that doesn't look to be improving any time in the near future. F David Lee is going to be a tough matchup for the Bobcats in the low block, as he is averaging 18.7 points and 10.9 boards per game. F Danilo Gallinari has come on of late for HC Mike D'Antoni, averaging 17.5 points per game since Christmas Day. However, he is suffering from a sore shoulder and back. Though the Italian will play, his production may be limited by his nagging injuries.
The home team has captured the L/4 games in this series SU, including both games this year. The Knicks won 98-94 at MSG on December 20th, but five days before that, Charlotte knocked off New York 94-87. HC Larry Brown's team has covered five straight NBA betting lines against one of his former teams.
Hollywood Sports
Weber State at Northern Colorado
Prediction: Weber State
Weber State (9-6) travels to Northern Colorado to play an important early game in the Big Sky conference. The Wildcats have won eight of their last ten games (including a nice win against Utah) and they are a perfect 3-0 in the Big Sky so far this season. The Bears (13-3) are 2-1 in Big Sky play. Both teams play tough defense -- Weber State holds their opponents to 43.4% shooting while Northern Colorado limits their opposition to just 41.9% shooting. Given that, expect a low-scoring affair that will help keep the Wildcats within the number. Weber State plays well on the road as they have covered in twelve of their last fifteen road games against teams with a winning home record. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered eight of their last ten games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. Weber State has won five of six games in this series since joining the Big Sky -- they will put up a tough fight tonight. Take the points with Weber State.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Northern Arizona -5
Idaho State is just 1-9 when playing away from home this season, losing these games by 12.4 points on average and I look for this trend to continue tonight. NAU has won 10 of the last 12 at home in this series and it will be extremely hungry to avenge being swept by Idaho State last season. Plus, NAU will be even more motivated to get its first conference win. Idaho State is just 2-9 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 6.5 points. The Bengals are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games overall, and just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the Lumberjacks for 1 Unit.
Wunderdog
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets looked like a potential playoff team early, but coming out on the wrong side of 21 of their last 24 has changed that thinking. Signs point to things starting to change after eight of 11 scoring just 1 goal or less. The Blue Jackets produced 2 vs. Colorado, and 3 in their last game vs. Vancouver, so the offense has come out of the slump. As futile as it has been for the Blue Jackets, the Oilers have claimed the right side in just 1 of their last 11, allowing 4 goals per game. The ledger vs. the West is an uninviting 0-9 in their last nine games. I will trust that the Jackets can continue to build on offensive success vs. a team allowing 4 per game, and come away with the win here. Columbus gets this one.
Scott Delaney
Long Beach State at Cal Fullerton
Take the road chalk in this one tonight, as the 49ers will mandhandle the Titans.
The 49ers have dropped all four games on their current road swing, including two in overtime. So why are we taking them tonight?
Because the 49ers have dropped all four games on their current road swing, including two in overtime.
Make sense?
Long Beach is bound to steal a win, and since it is a better basketball team than the Titans, this is its best opportunity to get it done before returning home.
What it'll boil down to is the fact the 49ers have a few more scoring options than the Titans it'll help them salvage the final game of this road trip.
2♦ LONG BEACH
Tony Weston
Bad call on Memphis last night as the Tigers just can’t keep it close down the stretch.
I’m delivering tonight, though, as I’m giving you some action from the national championship as I’m taking the Over in this Texas-Alabama matchup.
Coming into this game the Total is set at around 46 points, depending on where you’re playing this, but it won’t matter because these two will put up plenty of points and go Over the Total.
In its last 4 games against non-conference opponents Alabama has gone Over the Total in 4 straight games and now battles a non-conference opponent in Texas that has been on a string of Over runs.
Texas has seen the Over come in 3 of its last 4 games, totaling on average, 61.2 points per game in that stretch.
These two will put up plenty of points tonight and go well Over the Total.
3♦ TEXAS-ALABAMA OVER
Michael Cannon
Texas vs. Alabama -4', at Pasadena, CA
I am now 59-40-3 with my last 102 free plays.
Take the under in tonight’s BCS National Championship game between Texas and Alabama.
No question there is offensive talent on the field tonight.
Mark Ingram, Colt McCoy, Julio Jones and Jordan Shipley to name a few. But both teams sport fierce defenses that should keep this score well below the posted total.
Alabama ranks No. 1 in the nation in total defense and No. 4 in pass defense. The Crimson Tide allow just 11 ppg and have playmakers at every position.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the nation against the run, allowing 62 ypg for an average of 2.0 yards per carry. The Longhorns are rated No. 3 in the nation in passing efficiency, allowing 189 ypg. They have recorded 28 sacks and 24 INTs.
With so much talent on both defenses, I just don’t see this game getting past the posted total.
Take the under as your free play in the BCS National Championship.
5♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
New Orleans at DENVER -14
Going to play the Pioneers tonight, as the home team in this Sun Belt Conference showdown will have no trouble winning big.
The Pioneers are 9-1 at home this year and have won nine straight at Magness Arena. And I don't see how New Orleans is going to be able to travel into frigid Denver, adjust to the chill in their bones and hang with the Pioneers in the altitude tonight.
I know UNO is 20-5 all-time against the Pioneers and has won seven of the last eight matchups, but the programs are on different ends of the spectrum this season.
While the Pioneers have been competitive, the Privateers come into this one on a 1-7 slide, with the lone win coming five days ago over an even worse Florida International team that is 4-13 on the year.
Let's lay the value chalk with Denver here.
2♦ DENVER PIONEERS
Drew Gordon
Charlotte +3' at NY KNICKS
32-21-3 roll L56 Free Plays, incl. the Spurs last night, Miami (OH) Tuesday, and the Heat Monday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Bobcats/Knicks match up.
Bettors are guilty of knee-jerking in this contest, and it'll cost them BIG. Yes, the Knicks blew out the Pacers Sunday. And yes, the Knicks have won 4 of their L6 home games (3-3 ATS), incl. a 98-94 win (but no cover) vs. this very same Bobcats team December 20th, but I'm hardly convinced! If anything we can learn a lot from their last meeting a little over two weeks ago...
In that contest, the Knicks were listed as -6 point home favorites, and by now we know they won 98-94, burning their backers. Fast forward and we see the line has now shrunk considerably, and bettors are once again all over the Knicks! Guys, just because the Knicks looked good against the sorry-ass, no-defense playing Pacers doesn't mean they'll find success tonight... In fact, quite the opposite.
Herein lies the problem for the free-wheelin' Knicks, because if there's one thing the Bobcats do well, its play defense. They're holding opponents to 95 ppg on 46% shooting on the road this season, and having just seen them, the edge once again lies with the defense. There's a reason why despite their atrocious SU record on the road, Charlotte is an excellent 6-1 ATS in their L7 road games, and that reason is their ability to lockdown the opposition.
Bottom line, bettors perceptions are all screwed up in this contest, as they believe the Knicks are rolling (beating the sorry-ass Pacers isn't considered "rolling" in my book), while also believing the Bobcats are vulnerable on the road (6-1 ATS L7 roadies). You should know by now, based on my analysis, that both of those perceptions are dead-wrong! The Bobcats deliver the cash Thursday night!
Take Charlotte plus the points over the NY Knicks in this NBA match up.
1♦ CHARLOTTE