SEAN MURPHY
Texas @ Alabama
PICK: Over 45.5
I have a strong lean to the over in tonight's BCS Championship Game between Texas and Alabama.
This line has climbed a couple of points since opening, despite the fact that a lot of money is flowing in on the under.
I believe that this number is a bit of an overreaction to the Longhorns 13-point performance against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game and Alabama holding a powerful Florida Gators offense to 13 points in the SEC Championship.
I expect a strong performance from Longhorns QB Colt McCoy in his final college game, much like we saw from Vince Young in Texas' last national championship victory back in 2006. Remember, that game totaled 79 points.
That's not to say I don't have respect for this Alabama defense. But the Tide did allow 20+ points against Virginia Tech, Kentucky, and Auburn during the regular season, and each of those teams possess inferior offenses to that of Texas.
The Tide should get theirs offensively. All we hear about is their defense, but what about their offense? All it's done is produce 31.7 points per game despite playing in the SEC, a tough defensive conference. They only got better in the latter stages of the season, scoring over 30 points in three of their last four games.
Finally both teams are capable of putting six on the board with their return game. Both coverage units have struggled at times this season, the Longhorns in punt coverage and the Tide in kick coverage.
And of course with two top defenses comes the opportunity for big plays on that side of the football, producing short fields, or even putting points on the board. Take the over.
John Martin
1 Unit on Weber State +6.5
I really like Weber State catching points tonight against Northern Colorado considering they have won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series, and have 4 starters back from last season. Weber has underachieved to this point, but still sit at 9-6 for the season. Northern Colorado has certainly overachieved with a 13-3 record, but now is the time to fade this squad. The Weber Wildcats are 46-13 ATS in their last 59 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Weber State is 9-0 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Cash in with Weber State as the underdog.
Black Widow
1* on Bobcats/Knicks OVER 199.5
Any time the total is less than 200 points for a Knicks' home game, it's certainly worth a look. That's the case tonight as they host the Charlotte Bobcats. Since bringing in Stephen Jackson from Golden State, the Bobcats have picked up their play offensively. Charlotte is 4-1 in their last 5 games, scoring 101.6 points/game in the process. The Knicks are 3-2 in their last 5 games, putting up 106.2 points/game which is about 4 points more than their season average. So what we have here are two teams that are clicking offensively, and that should lead to more than 200 combined points tonight. Charlotte is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. New York is 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New York. Take the OVER 199.5 points.
Info Plays
3* on Murray State -11
Reasons why Murray State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MURRAY ST) - a top caliber team (>=+11 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-8 PPG differential), after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. This is a 47-14 ATS System hitting 77% since 1997.
2.) Murray State is 11-3 this season, winning their games by 17.2 PPPG. They should have no problem beating 3-12 Tennessee State by at least 11 tonight, a team that is shooting just 41% from the floor while allowing their opponents to shoot 51% from the field. Bet Murray State on the road.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Michigan/Penn State UNDER 129.5
7 of the last 10 games in this series have gone Under and I look for this trend to continue tonight. The Under is 18-7-1 in the Wolverines' last 26 road games and 16-7 in the Nittany Lions' last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Plus, the Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings at Penn State. Expect an ugly Big Ten game to come in Under the number tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +4
Bottom Line: Charlotte has covered all 3 games with the Knicks this season and 15 of the last 20. The Bobcats fell by 4 points in New York last month, and I look for them to have their revenge here. The Bobcats are playing good basketball with recent road wins over Miami and Cleveland and they have been money in the underdog role, going 32-17 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are coming off an impressive win over Indiana, but consider that they are just 4-15 ATS after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, losing in these spots by an average of 6.3 points. Take the Bobcats for 1 Unit.
O.C. Dooley
Idaho State +5 at Northern Arizona
This is a very strange line considering that Northern Arizona is already "0-3" in Big Sky Conference league play losing by a large average margin of 15 points per game. In their most recent setback Northern Arizona's offense shot a dreadful 26% from the field for an entire half. The reason why tonight's line is heavily in favor of Northern Arizona is because they are facing an opponent with a poor "4-11" overall record who so far has won only once on the road. But closer inspection tells me that Idaho State's "non" league schedule ranked 18th-TOUGHEST in the entire country which makes them much better than the overall record indicates. Just last week Idaho State had a starting guard who reached the magical "1,000 point" career plateau. Getting back to Northern Arizona (0-3 SU/ATS in league play so far) they just happen to be a disastrous 0-6 ATS/HOME the past two years if their prior game was also in front of the home fans. Long term in conference play Northern Arizona (5-14 ATS) has been a financial disaster for bettors. Once again visiting Idaho State's "non" league schedule was ranked (#18) one of the toughest in the entire country so they have already been tested by competition much tougher than they will face tonight