Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 10

SEAN MURPHY

Ohio @ Central Michigan
PICK: Under 60

We cashed with the 'over' in games involving both of these teams last week, but we'll switch gears and back the 'under' when they match up on Thursday night.

Ohio's offense appears to be rolling right now, coming off back-to-back 35+ point performances. However, this is a unit that lacks consistency. After getting up for last week's showdown at home against Temple, I won't be surprised if they fall victim to the dreaded letdown, at least on offense, in this spot.

Keep in mind, the Bobcats have been held to 17 points against Kent State, and 20 points against Ball State already this season.

Central Michigan has seen its offensive production drop in each of its last four games. Last Friday, the Chippewas scored only 21 points, barely contributing enough to get that game 'over' the rather low total.

The Chips defense has shown some improvement lately. Granted they've faced a pair of weak offenses in Akron and Kent State, that doesn't take away from the fact that they've allowed just 22 and 24 points in their last two games, both played on the road. They've been a better defense at home this season, where they're allowing just over 27 points per game on 4.6 ypr and 6.2 ypp.

It's worth noting that both of these teams' played in games that featured much lower totals last week. Ohio's game against Temple had a closing total of 46.5 points. CMU's game against Kent State featured a closing total of 44 points.

In fact, this is the highest total we've seen in any game involving Ohio since October 27th, 2007.

Sure, the Bobcats offense is a lot stronger this season, but Ohio's defense hasn't been too shabby either. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.7 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass play. I'm confident they can set the tone for a rather low-scoring affair on Thursday. Take the under 5*.

Jim Feist

Raiders vs. Chargers
Play: Over 47

A pair of teams with slumping defenses meet in the perfect weather of San Diego. San Diego has a potent, balanced offense and the Raiders are having trouble stopping the run, as the Denver Broncos steamrolled the Oakland defense in a 38-24 win rolling up 298 yards rushing. San Diego had trouble last week, too, giving up 45 to Green Bay and they couldn't get the ground game going, which won't be a problem this week. The Over is 28-13-2 in Chargers last 43 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Play the Raiders/Chargers Over the total.

Matt Fargo

Minnesota Wild vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks

This is the first meeting between Minnesota and San Jose since the two teams conducted three different trades with each other in the offseason. So far, so good for both teams as Minnesota is tied for third in the Western Conference with 19 points while the Sharks are two points back and tied for sixth place with Los Angeles. A win here would be big for San Jose to close the gap and it is certainly eager to show which team got the better of the deals heading into this season. Minnesota is riding a five-game winning streak and it has done so thanks to an excellent defense and outstanding goalkeeping. The Wild have allowed only three goals over this stretch and have not allowed a power play goal, stopping 21 chances. Goalie Josh Harding has made four starts, allowing three goals while Niklas Backstrom made 41 saves in a shutout last game. Both have struggled against the Sharks as Harding allowed five goals in his only start while Backstrom is 1-5-1 with a 3.39 GAA in San Jose. San Jose's defense has not been nearly as good but the offense has made up for it, scoring at least three goals in eight of its last nine games. After starting the season 1-3, the Sharks have caught fire, going 7-1-1 over its last nine games and the power play has been huge of late, hitting 23.8 percent over the last six games and at home San Jose is converting 28 percent of its power play opportunities. The Sharks are outshooting opponents 40.7-28.8 at home while Minnesota is getting outshot by 7.4 shots per game on the road. With two days off, goalie Antti Niemi is expected to get the start tonight. He is 5-2-1 and while he possesses a 2.96 GAA, the offense behind him has been outstanding as the Sharks have averaged 3.1 gpg in those eight starts. Facing Minnesota is one big reason he will be between the pipes as he is 3-0-0 with a 1.67 GAA and one shutout against Minnesota. San Jose is 8-0-1 over the last nine home meetings with the Wild and the Sharks are 10-2 in their last 12 games playing with two days rest. 3* San Jose Sharks

Ben Burns

Toronto Maple Leafs @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues

The Blues responded to the coaching change with a dominant effort, knocking off one of the best teams (Chicago) in the league in convincing fashion. Off that 3-0 shutout and facing a Toronto team which is suddenly really struggling, I feel that the Blues have a solid shot at another victory.

After a great start to the season, the Leafs have recently fallen on hard times. They've lost their last two games by a combined score of 12-1.

Often a "fresh start" with a new coach can be just what the doctor ordered for a team. Although it should be noted that the Blues have been outstanding at home, regardless of who was behind the bench. Indeed, they've won four of five games here. They've outscored opponents by an average score of 3.2 to 2.0 here, outshooting them by a 32.4 to 24.2 margin. The lone loss here came on opening night and they've since won all four games.

The Blues won 4-0 the last time they hosted the Leafs and are 8-3 the last 11 series meetings overall. All things considered, the price seems reasonable. Consider St. Louis.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN DIEGO –7 over Oakland

While there is always trepidation when spotting points with the wayward Chargers, we prefer to rely on them here to a Raiders team that is reeling much worse than San Diego is. Oakland has lost two straight since the loss of quarterback Jason Campbell. Much has been made of the acquisition of Campbell’s replacement but to date, Carson Palmer has performed terribly with a dreadful passer rating of 53.9, a 48.2 completion percentage and six interceptions in less than six quarters of work. The Raiders were not a passing team to begin with and with RB Darren McFadden still shelved with a foot injury and a defense that ranks 27th in the league, there is not much that leads us to believe that Oakland can compete against this underachieving but potentially dangerous rival. One also has to consider the advantage of the home team on a short week angle, meaning the visitor has very little time to prepare for this offensive power. Philip Rivers and his receivers finally had a huge week and there’s no reason to believe the Raiders will be able to slow them down. Play San Diego –7 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Vegas Experts

Houston at Tulane

Nationally ranked Houston comes into Thursday night's matchup with Tulane averaging 52.7 PPG. Over their last four games, they are averaging a simply stunning 62 PPG. Considering they will be facing a Green Wave defense surrendering 36 PPG, we can certainly count on the Cougars to "get theirs" tonight. That means we probably need about 20 points from the home team. That seems reasonable, given they are averaging above that benchmark and will probably have ample opportunities to score in "garbage time."

Play on: Over

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let us look at the over in the Raiders-Chargers game.

With Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer throwing six interceptions in two games and Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers throwing 14 this season, the one thing for sure is that these teams will have turnovers. That should mean some short fields and easy scores.

In their last three games, the Raiders have given up an average of 27.7 points a game, while the Chargers have given up an average 31.7 in their last three games.

Both teams will be throwing the ball as the Raiders will be without running back Darren McFadden, while the Chargers may be without their top running back Ryan Matthews. Even if Matthews plays, he will not be 100 percent.

Offensively, the Raiders average 27.7 points for road games, while the Chargers average 24.9 points a game. The Chargers have gone over the total three of their last four games.

3♦ OVER

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Ohio University Bobcats minus the points as the road favorite at Central Michigan.

Hard to back a Chippewas team that has failed five in a row against the spread, and owns just one cover overall for the campaign.

Dating back to last season, CMU is on a 3-15 spread slide, so unless you are giving me two touchdowns, I don't want any part of this home underdog this Thursday night.

Ohio University looked sharp in beating Temple last week in the home dog role, as Frank Solich's team has now won and covered their last pair in MAC play.

The Bobcats have dropped four in a row to the Chippewas, so if you need an intangible angle, revenge always works in the college ranks, especially when it is four-fold!

Ohio U is on an 8-3 MAC road spread run, soon to be 9-3 after tonight's game has concluded.

Take the Bobcats minus the points.

5♦ OHIO UNIVERSITY

MATT RIVERS

Free play winner for tonight is the Virginia Tech Hokies as the small favorite tonight at Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets have covered the last 3 series meetings against the Hokies, but they have only won outright in one of those meetings, and Virginia Tech is 5-2 straight up the last 7 times the schools have met.

Virginia Tech brings a true 11 game road winning streak into Bobby Dodd Stadium, and they are a positive 7-3-1 against the spread in those wins. Look for the Hokies consistent play on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball to make the difference tonight against a streak Georgia Tech team.

The Yellow Jackets did upset the Clemson Tigers on October 29th, but their losses at Miami-Florida, and Virginia in their previous two efforts show that teams are getting wise to the option offense Paul Johnson likes to employ.

With a few extra days to prepare for G-Tech, look for Bud Foster's defense to have things under control tonight in Atlanta.

Take the Hokies.

4♦ VIRGINIA TECH

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Houston/Tulane Over 74

Houston has played to the over in 6 of 9 games this season. Each time it has finished under the total, it has followed it up by finishing over the number in its next game. In fact, Houston is 11-3 over all-time under coach Sumlin following 1 or more consecutive unders. We've seen an average of 79.1 total points scored in this situation. These teams combined for 65 points in last season's matchup, but keep in mind that Case Keenum did not play in that game as he was out with a season-ending knee injury. With Keenum slinging the pigskin, the Cougars are the top scoring team in the country with 52.7 points per game. They have combined with their opponents to average 76.1 total points per game on the season. With this in mind, I feel we're getting some line value at 74, especially since Houston and its foes have combined for an average of 89 points in its last 3 contests. We'll take the over.

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS -½ +116 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs have scored just one goal in their past seven periods. They’ve lost consecutive games for the first time this season and were quite fortunate that it wasn’t four straight after they were badly outplayed by the 2-11 Blue Jackets, and to a lesser extent, by the Devils in New Jersey. More notably, is the fragile state of mind that the coaches have instilled in both Toronto netminders. Coach Ron Wilson keeps interchanging Jonas Gustavsson and Ben Scrivens and that is a major concern. After allowing a third goal on Tuesday, Wilson yanked Gustavsson and Scrivens let in one of the softest goals you’ll ever see. He keeps switching goalies instead of sticking with the experienced Gustavsson. The Maple Leafs ruined Gustavsson and now they’re doing the same to Ben Scrivens but putting him in impossible situations. In fact, since Wilson’s arrival in 2008, the nine goaltenders that have played under him have stopped the lowest percentage of shots in the league (.893). At his post-game press conference, Ron Wilson has this to say, “Their goalie made a number of big saves and unfortunately we couldn’t get a save.” He’s not supporting his goalies or showing any confidence by suggesting that the whole team must play better but instead, singles out his goaltenders. Meanwhile, the Blues shut down and shut out the potent Blackhawks on Tuesday in Ken Hitchcock’s debut. They were crisp and near flawless in that game and they take a huge step down in class here. The Blue Notes last four wins have come against Chicago, Vancouver twice and Philadelphia and that’s as tough a quartet as any in the league. This one could be over rather quickly. Play: St. Louis -½ +116 (Risking 2 units).

FLORIDA +100 over Winnipeg

The Jets return home from a tough two-week road trip that saw them play seven games in 13 nights. This will be their eighth game in 15 nights and they’ll play it with three regular D-men on the rack, including their top blueliner, Tobias Enstrom. The Jets won two games on said trip and one of those was in Florida in which they allowed 42 shots on net. The Panthers have picked up points in five straight games and in seven of their past eight contests. They arrive here healthy and confident and with a will to win attitude. Florida doesn’t dazzle and they don’t have the household names that other teams have but what they do have is a solid collection of youth and vets that could crack just about any line-up in the NHL. The Panthers are in a great situational spot here as well. Play: Florida +100 (Risking 2 units).

David Chan

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Los Angeles Kings

The 7-7-1 Vancouver Canucks stampede into LA to take on the 7-5-3 Kings.

Roberto Luongo gets the start in the first game of the back to back for Vancouver; he'll be opposed by Jonathan Quick.

Vancouver continues its six game road trip here, and for the most part has looked pretty brutal on the offensive side of the puck.

During the trip the Canucks have outscored opponents 11-3 in victories while getting outscored 8-3 in the losses.

The Kings snapped an 0-3-2 slide with a 4-3 victory over the Predators on Tuesday.

Keep your eyes on Simon Gagne who has five goals and five helpers in nine career meetings vs. Vancouver.

While Quick is just 3-6-1 lifetime vs. the Canucks, he sports a very respectable 2.08 GAA in that span.

Luongo has looked better of late after an inconsistent start, going 3-1-0 with a 2.51 GAA.

But Vancouver has been "hot and cold" to start the year (especially on the road where it's just 4-5), and now faces an underachieving home side that is looking to build momentum off of a solid victory; this is definitely good "line-value"; all signs point to a comfortable Kings' victory!

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

SAN DIEGO -7 over Oakland: Last week the chargers had a rough loss, but had it not been for the two pic sixes that Rivers threw they would have won the game by 7 instead of lose by 7. Even with the 3 TO's they had this team still put up 38 points and 460 yards, while outgaining the Pack by 92 yards.The Pack came into that game averaging 423 ypg, but the Chargers defense held them to just 368 yards, which is one of Green Bay's lowest outputs of the year. San Diego has reall outplayed the Chiefs and Packers the last two weeks, but costly Rivers mistakes have done them in and he knows it. I fully expect him to have a complete game vs the a Raiders team that he is 8-2 vs in his career. Last week San Diego put up 375 yards passing vs a bad Green Bay defense and tonight they get to take on an Oakland pass defense that is 20th, allowing 249.6 ypg. This week SD should have both Tolbert and Mathews in the run game and that is good news as they will be facing the 29th ranked run defense of the Raiders. Last week Denver ran all over this defense and you can expect SD to attack it early with the run game, which could set up big strikes down field later in the game. The Chargers once a gain have a very good defense as they are 7th overall (311.6 ypg) and 4th vs the pass (191.6 ypg). The can be run on as they are 18th vs the run, allowing 120 ypg, and we know that Oakland is a running team, but McFadden is out again and his loss did hurt them last week in the 38-24 loss to the Broncos. In their last 2 game the Raiders have been outscored 66-24 and now they will be taking on an angry Chargers team that is looking for revenge after losing both games to the Raiders last year. This one could get ugly as San Diego puts forth their most complete effort of the year and they win this one by 14+.

Houston/ Tulane Over 73.5: It would be fitting for a game like this with all the offense in it to fall short, while some of the MAC games that should have been lower scoring (Games with Temple) have been going over. That would be just my luck huh? Well it is a reason that this isn't higher rated, Cause I really like this play. Houston has been keeping scoreboard operators busy this year as they have put up 52.7 ppg and 617 ypg overall, including 642.6 ypg and 59.4 ppg in Conference USA games. Case Keenum is having a super year as he has hit 74% of his passes for 3621 yards, with 34 TD's and just 3 INT's, plus he has a 10.45 ypa average. This kid is awesome and he will not slow down on putting up numbers even if his team is way ahead. Houston has been looking for big wins as they hope for a chance at a BCS game, so running up the score for them is no problem. Tonight they get a shot at a Tulane defense that is 112th in points allowed (36 ppg). Tulane is ranked in the middle of the pack in Pass defense (63rd), but no one has been able to stop this offense yet and I don't expect this mediocre defense to do it either. The Tulane offense is not good overall, ranking 92 in total offense (351 ypg), but one thing the have done is pass the ball (237 ypg) and Houston does have some problems vs the pass, allowing 216 ypg on the year. For this game to go Over we need at least 20 points from Tulane and they have averaged 22.7 ppg on the year, while Houston has allowed 23.4 ppg this year. 20 Points from Tulane is truly attainable, while I don't see any reason why this Houston offense can't get AT :LEAST 55 points of their own. I can see a 63-24 final, which would give us an easy play on the over.

1 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Oakland Over 47.5: Last night I had it in my head that this was gonna be an Under play, but upon further review the call on the field has been reversed. Carson is getting more familiar with this offense and with McFadden out they will once again have to throw more. Last week Carson passed for 332 yards and had 3 TD's vs the Broncos. He did have 3 piicks and I'm counting on at least 1 or 2 here so it will set SD up for a short field or easy score. Rivers has thrown 14 INT's this year so you can epect him to make a mistake or two that will give the Raiders some easy points. Oakland has allowed 66 points in their last 23 games, but neither of those offenses were as good as the Bolts high powered attack. San Diego should be good for around 34 points in this one, while I expect Oakland to hit at least 17. We also have a nice little system for this play. Since 1993 the Over is 16-4 if a divisional team (SD) is off a loss in which they scored at least 34 points. This game should be played in the 50's.

Steve Janus

Central Michigan +7

The Chippewas come into tonight's conference matchup against Ohio getting a touchdown, and I believe they are going to surprise a lot of people by how close they keep this game. Central Michigan is a disappointing 3-7 on the year, but a big reason for that is 7 of their 10 games have been played on the road. The Chippewas are 2-1 on their home turf, which includes a 48-41 win over Northern Illinois. That is the only conference loss Northern Illinois has suffered all season.

Outside of a 14-44 blowout loss to in state rival Western Michigan on the road, the Chippewas three other conference losses have all been decided by 7-points or less.

The main reason Central Michigan has been able to keep things close is the outstanding play of quarterback Ryan Radcliff. The junior has thrown for 2,691 yards and 20 touchdowns, and I look for a big game out him against Ohio tonight. The Bobcats come in allowing just under 195 yards a game through the air, but allowed 343 to Buffalo's Chazz Anderson.

Some teams struggle to play well in weekday games, but the Chippewas are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. Central Michigan is also 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. BET THE CHIPPEWAS +7!