Ross BenjaminFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden St. @ Chicago
Play: Golden St. +6.5
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Any away underdog that's playing their 3rd game in four nights, they are playing with no rest, they are coming off BB away SU&ATS wins the last of which was an underdog, and they have a winning percentage of .650 or better is 9-0 ATS since the start of the 1991-1992 season. The underdog has won eight of those nine games outright.
Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on Golden State Warriors +6.5
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We cashed in the Warriors last night in an upset win at New York, and we'll take them again Thursday as our free pick. Once again this team is undervalued, and the betting public along with the odds makers fail to realize it. Golden State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season, playing tremendous basketball behind Monte Ellis and Stephon Curry, along with newcomer David Lee who gives them great scoring and rebounding inside. He is one of the most underrated players in the league, and was a great addition to a team that came into this season very strong on the perimeter but weak inside. Until the Bulls get Carlos Boozer healthy and playing, they are going to be a very inconsistent team. In two meetings with the Bulls last year, the Warriors thumped Chicago 114-97 at home and lost by only 5 on the road 91-96. The Bulls are 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. So this young team with fresh legs has proven they can play on no rest. Golden State is also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, while the Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Warriors and the points.
Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Celtics/Heat UNDER 184.5
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We only saw 168 total points scored in the season's first meeting, and I'm expecting another defensive battle down in Miami tonight. These are 2 of the premier defensive teams in the NBA, and I especially expect Miami to tighten the screws after allowing an opponent to crack the century mark for the first time this season in its last game. Over the last couple seasons, Boston has played its best defense against the best teams in the league. In fact, the Celtics are 16-5 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing an average 181.2 total points in these games. The Under is also 5-0 in the Celtic's last 5 games as an underdog. Bet the Under tonight.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Celtics/Heat OVER 184
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This total has been set way too low tonight in Miami, and as a result I'll side with the OVER Thursday. With both Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal doubtful to play tonight due to knee injuries, the Heat won't be overpowered in the paint like they were when they lost 80-88 to Boston in the season-opener. That means more easy buckets for Miami this time around as James, Wade and company attack the rim with more frequency. Boston is also going to want to be more up-tempo tonight since they are thin in the middle, because they will get crushed if it's a half-court game.
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The Heat are scoring 101.4 PPG this season, including 110.0 PPG at home. Boston is averaging 97.9 PPG this year, so both teams have been pretty solid offensively. The total set in their season-opener was 188.5, so we are getting a full 4.5 points of value tonight with this OVER. The Heat have topped the 100-point mark in 4 of their last 5 games, and their 3 superstars are finally starting to gel together. The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. This one is played at a much faster pace than the opener. Take the OVER Thursday.
Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Ravens @ Falcons
PICK: Under 44
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Now that this line has touched 44 at some outlets, it's time to step in with a play on the under.
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These two teams have met in each of the last eight years, with six of those matchups being played in the preseason. While those exhibition contests don't mean much on paper, they do allow for both sides to become somewhat familiar with their opponents' schemes - both offensively and defensively.
Add in the fact that the Ravens and Falcons are virtually mirror images of one another in terms of what they do when they have the football, and you can understand why there will be few surprises at the Georgia Dome on Thursday.
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With a short week of preparation, both teams will lean on their strength - which lies on the defensive side of the football. The Ravens check in having allowed just over 17 points per game on 310 total yards per game while the Falcons have given up 19 ppg on 346 total ypg.
We've seen a stark contrast between the Ravens offensive production at home compared to on the road this season. They're averaging just over 14 ppg away from home - on nearly 100 total ypg fewer.
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The good news for Ravens backers is that their defense hasn't missed a beat on the road, allowing 15.2 ppg on a staggeringly-low 258 total ypg. That's made even more impressive when you consider three of their four road tilts have come against Super Bowl contenders in the Jets, Steelers, and Patriots.
The Falcons have lived off of long, time-consuming, physical drives on offense this season. Roddy White is really their only consistent big play threat through the air, and that's forced them to be more of a run-first offense, particularly here at home, where they're confident they can wear out their opponents physically.
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Defensively, the Falcons are a much better team than they've shown in the last three games - at least by my estimation. They've allowed 31, 32, and 21 points over their last three contests, but should benefit from facing the Ravens offense on a short week. We've seen Baltimore go conservative on the road before, and that should help the Falcons hang around in this one.
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The under is 9-1-1 in the Ravens last 11 road games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have seen the under cash at a 7-3-1 clip in their last 11 games when favored by a field goal or less. Look for those trends to continue on Thursday. Take the under.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -½ +1.30 over Minnesota
If all things equal out over time than the Minnesota Wild are eventually going to lose a lot of hockey games. Here’s a team that has won three in a row and four and five games yet they’ve had no business winning any of them. They’ve been getting tremendous goaltending and that’s the only reason they’re winning. The Wild are not only offensively challenged but its defense is not close to being as good as advertised, as they continue to give up a ton of quality chances. The bottom line is that they get badly outplayed every game and that’s been going on far too long for them to keep winning. The Thrashers have dropped three in a row and that works out perfectly for this tilt because they’re hungry and they’ll be focused. It’s not like they’re playing poorly either. Unlike the Wild, Atlanta’s goaltending has been shaky otherwise they’d have a few more W’s. This is a quality team with quality players and the fortunes of both these teams are going to equal out. That begins here. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Karl Garrett
Baltimore at ATLANTA
G-Man going to look low in Atlanta this evening as Baltimore and Atlanta have at it.
The price on this total is a little surprising to me, as I had it pegged right around 39 points or so. That is not the case, as the linesmakers are thinking we will see some fireworks, but I don't see that happening.
All 4 of Baltimore's road games this year have held low, and 10 of their last 11 on the road have also stayed under the posted total.
With the Ravens getting defensive star Ed Reed back, their defense just became that much more tougher to score against.
This will be the Falcons 4th game of the season against the AFC, and thus far 2 of 3 have held low.
Points at a premium tonight in the Georgia Dome, take the under in the Ravens-Falcons contest.
4♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
Baltimore (+1) at ATLANTA
With a road game against Carolina on deck there isn’t any chance in the world the Ravens will get caught looking ahead here.
Atlanta will have the full focus of the Ravens and that’s going to be trouble for the Falcons.
I know Atlanta has great numbers at home (17-3 SU) since coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, but the Ravens are the better all-around team and they have the better defense.
Joe Flacco has been playing lights-out recently and I expect the Ravens to continue to roll here as a result. They played a nearly flawless game Sunday against a game Miami team, so look for Baltimore to continue to roll here on the road.
Ed Reed is back at safety for Baltimore and he’s had an immediate impact in his two games. His presence immediately upgrades the Ravens secondary and since teams can’t run on them it will make the sledding tough for Ryan.
The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS when taking points.
Atlanta is 0-14 ATS at home in games off back-to-back wins so back Baltimore tonight.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Derek Mancini
Baltimore at ATLANTA (-1)
As Thursday play gets going in the NFL again, they're some additional factors that need to be considered, including the quick turnaround time from Sunday's games. Each team here is coming off a key home win just 4 days ago, but you have to wonder about the Ravens with such a short week of prep, as they lost practice time with the travel. They are a veteran team, but going up against a Falcons squad that plays extremely well at the Georgia Dome is an uphill climb even with a full week's practice.
In what is a near pick'em situation, the Falcons are 17-1 at home with Matt Ryans at the helm, and that includes 4-0 this season. They average 30.8 ppg at the Georgia Dome on 404 total yards this season. For comparison's sake, that's 16 more points (14.8 ppg) and almost 100 more yards per game (309)than Baltimore averages on the road. For as good as the Ravens are at home, they've had their ups and downs on the road this season (see losses at Cincy and New England).
There's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but probably the most important news for Atlanta-backers is that Roddy White is going to play. His knee injury was minor, and he'll be at or close to 100% for this contest. His presence is absolutely necessary in order to keep the Ravens defense honest. Michael Turner has caught fire in recent weeks, and if the Falcons can establish the run, Matty Ice will take care of the rest. Good news for the Falcons is that despite the addition of some passing weapons, this Baltimore team remains a run-first offense, which plays right into the strengths of this Atlanta defense.
This will be a close one, but the short turnaround and travel for Baltimore will have an adverse effect tonight. Not to mention, if there's one place you don't want to play Matty Ice and the Falcons, it's at the Georgia Dome. Small, but solid play on the Falcons to get it done at home. Take Atlanta over Baltimore Thursday.
1♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Pittsburgh at UCONN (+5')
Wednesday’s complimentary selection comes in college football action, as I’ll take UConn as a home underdog versus Pitt.
The Panthers have rebounded nicely from a 23-17 loss at Notre Dame, peeling off three consecutive double-digit wins and covers, all in Big East play. Not only did they pound Syracuse, Rutgers and Louisville by a combined score of 106-37, but they averaged 385.7 yards offense and allowed just 232. Very impressive, indeed.
But here’s what else is impressive: UConn, after upsetting West Virginia 16-13 in overtime as a five-point underdog on Oct. 29, is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. In those four victories, the Huskies averaged 40.8 points and 195.2 rushing yards per game. Admittedly, the Panthers can run the ball very well, too, and they have a big advantage when it comes to stopping the run. But you could’ve said the same thing prior to the UConn-West Virginia game, and even though the Huskies got outgained 414-278, they still found a way to win.
Pitt has played just three road games, losing to Utah in the opener before falling to Notre Dame and beating outmanned Syracuse in back-to-back weeks in mid-October. And though the Panthers rolled 34-10 as a one-point ‘dog in their last visit to UConn two years ago, the teams have split the last six meetings, with the Huskies going 4-2 ATS. Also the underdog is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes.
Lastly, check this out: Pitt is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after a bye, while UConn has been a spread-covering machine, riding ATS runs of 16-6 overall, 25-9 at home, 9-3 against winning teams, 4-1 in November, 6-2 after a bye, 8-2 as an underdog, 13-3 as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points and 6-0 at home when catching between 3½ to 10 points.
3♦ UCONN
Bobby Maxwell
Pittsburgh (-5') at UCONN
For my comp selection, Pittsburgh has suddenly found its offense, scoring 106 points during its three-game winning streak. That trend will continue tonight as they beat up on UConn in this Big East showdown from Connecticut. Go ahead and lay the points with the Panthers tonight.
QB Tino Sunseri has come on lately and has learned to take what the defense gives him. He only threw for 123 yards in the 20-3 win over Louisville on Oct. 30, but he was outstanding against Rutgers, throwing for 307 yards and three TDs. For the season, Sunseri has thrown for 12 TDs and just four INTs, a ratio coach Dave Wannstedt enjoys seeing.
Last time Pitt went to Connecticut, the Panthers delivered a 34-10 beating as a one-point underdog, blowing out the Huskies in 2008. Last year, the Panthers edged UConn 24-21 in Pittsburgh but failed to cash as 6 ½-point favorites.
UConn hasn’t lost a home game this season, including the 16-13 OT win over West Virginia on Oct. 29, winning outright as 4 ½-point home ‘dogs.
Last year, Pitt put up 489 yards of offense against a UConn defense that was rated fourth in the country. Tonight, the Huskies come in ranked 60th in the country. Pitt runs the ball for 156.2 yards per game and throws it for 212.6 this season and they are putting up 29 points a game. If they are able to contain the Huskies rushing attack, averaging 174.8 yards per game, this win should come with ease.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 4-0 in the Big East, 4-0-1 overall, 3-1-2 on the road, 15-5-1 on grass and 3-0-1 after a spread-cover.
I’m going to lay the points with Pitt in this one and I expect the Panthers to get this one by about 13 points. Look for something in the 35-21 range.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Stephen Nover
Pittsburgh at CONNECTICUT (+5')
The Big East Conference is down this season. Pittsburgh is the league leader, but the Panthers aren't anything special so I'm attracted to the home 'dog Huskies. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cash in the past four meetings.
Connecticut covered last year losing 24-21 as a 6 1/2-point road 'dog to the Panthers.
The Huskies certainly are capable of springing the outright upset. They beat West Virginia, 16-13, two weeks ago in their last game as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs.
Connecticut has yet to lose in four home contests this season. The Huskies are averaging 40.7 points at home. They have covered nine of the last 11 times they've been a home 'dog.
Pittsburgh still isn't where it wants to be offensively. The Panthers do have a stout defense, but Connecticut has one of the better runners in the conference in Jordan Todman, who has rushed for 954 yards and scored nine touchdowns.
2♦ CONNECTICUT
Scott Delaney
Pittsburgh (-5') at CONNECTICUT
As tough as this game may appear on the surface, I give my nod to Pittsburgh, as it comes down to momentum this late in the season in a conference like the Big East.
Sure, U Conn appears to have resurged, but you have to look a bit deeper at the Huskies to see what they're really doing and how they've won. But Pittsburgh, this is a team that has won by margins of 31, 20 and 17 the past three weeks.
UConn, meanwhile, got run over last week by West Virginia and lucked its way to an overtime victory. It was out-gained by nearly 150 rushing yards and 136 total yards. Sure, a huge win like that can motivate a team; or you have to wonder if the Mountaineers were looking past the then-3-4 Huskies.
Connecticut doesn't have the talent or horsepower of Pittsburgh, which has been just dominating the past three weeks, and comes in with an overpowering defense that hasn't allowed more than 23 points since Sept. 23, in that embarrassing TV game versus Miami.
The Panthers are 4-1 since and should roll to the win and cover tonight.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Joel Tyson
East Carolina (+2) at UAB
Talk about getting humiliated, that is exactly what happened to the Pirates on Saturday, as the Naval Academy ran wild for 76-points against ECU. That came on the heels off a 49-point allowence at Central Florida.
Redemption time for East Carolina, as coach Ruffin McNeil's team is one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible, and they are taking on a UAB team they have won and covered 3 in a row against.
The 3-6 Blazers play their second of three in a row at home, and they were soundly beaten last week 31-17 as the double-digit favorite against Marshall.
ECU is averaging over 35 points per game, and with Pirates QB Davis averaging over 300 yards per game passing, I like the Pirates to right their ship and get back on track for a bowl bid as they take this one outright.
Points always a plus, but expect East Carolina to hand the Balzers loss the loss for the fourth straight season.
3♦ EAST CAROLINA