Craig Davis
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As many of you know, I'm an Ohio State fan. I won a lot of money on or against this team in college hoops last season and I plan to start the right way tonight as I believe the Buckeyes will roll James Madison by at least 25 points. In their opener, vs. Alcorn State, the Buckeyes scored 100 points in a 40-point blowout win that wasn't even that close. The funny thing is, the line was -39, so the Bucks are actually 1-0 ATS already on the season. Go figure.
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Remember that exciting overtime game vs. Siena in last year's March Madness tournament? Siena ended up winning 74-72, but the Buckeyes learned a lot about themselves in that game... and the one thing they learned is that four of the five starters from that game would return in 2009-2010, not to mention getting David Lighty back after missing much of last season due to injury. This team also returns do-it-all swingman Evan Turner (led the team in points, rebounds and assists), sharp-shooter Jon Diebler, Mr. Ohio Basketball (from a year ago) William Buford, and C Kyle Madsen. This might be the best team Thad Matta has had since his team that made it all the way to the National Championship game with Greg Oden, Mike Conley and DeQuan Cook. For James Madison, they lose three of their five starters from last season and learned the other day that sophomore guard Devon Moore, the only freshman starter last year, is lost for the season after tearing his ACL in a Sunday practice. That's at least 25% of the Dukes offense and I'm not sure they have the horses to make up for it. James Madison ended their 2009 season with an embarrassing 81-43 loss to Old Dominion in the CIT post-season tournament after starting the year with a 99-64 loss to Davidson. Start slow, end slow... that's what I expect here tonight. Buckeyes roll up the Dukes.
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2♦ OHIO STATE
Rocketman
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James Madison vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -16.5
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Ohio State is 11-3 ATS last 3 years after scoring 80 points or more. Last year Ohio State allowed only 62 points per game overall and 58.3 points per game at home. Dukes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dukes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games. Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Buckeyes are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Ohio State is currently ranked 17th in the nation. Ohio State defense should pressure James Madison a lot tonight. James Madison will be without Devon Moore and Dazzmond Thornton tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Ohio State tonight!
Tom Freese
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Dallas Stars vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: Under 5½
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Dallas is 548-453 UNDER in all games since 1996 and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games vs. Western Conference teams. The Stars are 4-1 UNDER on Thursday and they are 7-2-1 UNDER their last 10 meetings with the Sharks. San Jose is 4-1 UNDER their last 5 home games and they are 7-3-2 UNDER vs. a team who scored 2 or less goals in their last game. The Sharks are 24-9-5 UNDER vs. Pacific Division teams and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games overall. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Randall the Handle
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Florida +1.81 over BOSTON
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The Bruins are playing much better but they’re still struggling offensively and we could catch them a bit flat tonight after a four-game stretch that saw them play Detroit, Montreal, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Those are four games the B’s get up for, as the Sabres and Habs are perhaps its two biggest rivals and everyone gets jacked up to play the Red Wings and Penguins. Now they get a “breather” with the Panthers coming in and it’s also worth noting that the Bruins have the Penguins on deck again on Saturday. The Panthers record is not a good one but they’ve played much better on the road and that could be attested to the fact that their building is empty when they play at home. Contrary to what some think, the Panthers are a dangerous team. They have plenty of good, young talent and recently won three in a row before back-to-back losses to the Caps. It also appears that the Panthers will get two healthy bodies back tonight in Domenic Moore and Radek Dvorak. The situation is a vulnerable one for the B’s and frankly, they really can’t be trusted as this big a favorite right now. Play: Florida +1.97 (Risking 2 units).
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Minnesota +1.33 over TAMPA BAY
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Speaking of good situations, this is another one that favors the visitor. The Lightning return home after a four-game trip that saw them play at Philly, Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. After playing to four jam-packed houses in which there was excitement and motivation the Lightning will now play in its atmosphere-less own dead arena. Teams are rarely sharp coming home from a trip and it’s very likely a lot more difficult to come home and respond to a three-quarter empty joint. The Lightning are coming off a win but only once this year have they won twice in a row and that came over Carolina and Florida. Meanwhile, the Wild are feeling it with four wins in five games including consecutive road wins in Pittsburgh and Toronto. They also beat the Rangers and Dallas over that stretch and it’s also worth noting that Niklas Backstrom is in the zone right now. Backstrom has been brilliant while Tampa Bay still has some goaltending issues, as neither Mike Smith nor Niittymaki has been consistent. We’ve all seen the Lightning pull a number of no-shows this season and this is an extremely unfavorable spot. Play: Minnesota +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Phoenix Suns +7½
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The Suns are getting no respect from odds makers early on and as a result they covered the number in 4 straight and are 6-3 ATS on the season. The Lakers are just 2-5 ATS as the reigning champs have been extremely overvalued, especially without Pau Gasol in the lineup. The Suns played last night, but it was a breezer so they should still have plenty of energy to go after the Lakers with. Plays on underdogs; hot team having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread; top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season, are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the points for 1 Unit.
YANKEE CAPPER
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Chicago/San Francisco Under 43.5
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Bowling Green/Miami-OH Over 57.5
Ball State +17.5
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Cleveland/Miami Under 180.5
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Detroit Red Wings -165
Minnesota Wild +120
San Jose Sharks -190
Drew Gordon
Ball State +17' at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
What did I tell you about the Spurs last night?! I warned you against an over-reaction to the injury situation, and I was dead-on, as the Spurs won outright 92-83! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Ball St/Nothern Illinois match up.
I can understand why bettors would be happy to jump aboard the Huskies in this contest after watching them dismantle Eastern Michigan last Thursday. But I say: Not so fast! Fact is Ball State is being grossly underestimated in this match up, despite their 1-8 record, they are a decent team, especially in this particular contest.
Why? Two glaring reasons: A. Before you go making fun of the Cardinals 1-8 record, consider 6 of those 8 losses came by 10 points or less! And B. Its no secret Ball State has had almost 2 weeks to prepare for this contest, having last played on Halloween! They're coming off a heart-breaking loss to Ohio, but the extra rest/prep time should have them razor sharp (and hungry) for a win in this match up.
So how does Ball State do it? Ball-control that's how! Over their L3 games the Cardinals have been running roughshod over their opponents, averaging 301 rushing yards per game on an outstanding 6.6 yards per rush! Granted, this Northern Illinois defense is tough against the rush, but I still believe MiQuale Lewis can move the chains enough to keep this game competitive. No doubt, Ball State will have their hands full with Chad Spann, but again, they've had more than enough time to gameplan for this Huskies offense. In the end, the Huskies almost certainly win SU, but look for a well-rested and well-prepared Cardinals team to bring home the cash!
Take Ball State plus the points over Northern Illinois in this college football match up.
3♦ BALL STATE
Michael Cannon
South Florida at RUTGERS -2'
I am 24-12-1 with my last 37 overall free plays.
Take Rutgers tonight as the small home chalk over South Florida.
The Scarlet Knights have quietly won four of their last six games and they are coming off a bye week here. That means coach Greg Schiano has had almost two full weeks to prepare for the Bulls and freshman quarterback B. J. Daniels.
Daniels looked like a true freshman in losses to Cincinnati and Pitt, but shredded West Virginia for 232 yards passing and 104 yards rushing in the Bulls 30-19 upset win.
But I think that performance was more a result of poor coaching by the Mountaineers staff than anything special Daniels was doing.
Tonight he will revert back to the form he showed against UC and Pitt.
The Scarlet Knights are a solid 10-4-1 ATS overall in their last 15 and carry additional pointspread streaks of 5-2 in Big East play, 5-2 on Thursday, 6-1 as an underdog, 8-2-1 after a SU win, 6-0-1 after a non-cover and 6-3 after a bye.
South Florida has been a poor bet on Thursday night action, going 0-4 ATS in that role and have failed to cover 11 of 15 against winning teams.
Take Rutgers minus the small number as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ RUTGERS
Stephen Nover
Cleveland at MIAMI
Only four teams still have just one loss in the NBA. The Miami Heat is one of those teams.
The Heat is 6-1 straight-up and against the spread. Dwayne Wade is healthy and having a great season. The Heat rank in the top three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and defending against the three-pointer. Miami is enjoying excellent chemistry.
Cleveland is off a big 102-93 revenge victory last night against Orlando, the team that knocked the Cavaliers out of the playoffs last season. But the Cavaliers haven't been performing at peak efficiency yet. That's reflected in their 5-3 record, which includes losses to Toronto and Chicago. Neither the Raptors nor the Bulls are above .500.
LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal are learning how to play together. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is adjusting to life off the bench. Newcomers Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon are learning how to fit in. Delonte West has been a distraction with his personal problems. He didn't play last night.
Point is Miami is the more together team at this early juncture. The Heat also is home and catches Cleveland in a tough situational spot.
Already this will be the Cavaliers' fourth back-to-back game this season. Cleveland is 1-2 against the spread in the second of consecutive games.
The Cavaliers are off a huge emotional and physical matchup against Orlando last night. O'Neal and Dwight Howard went toe-to-toe in bruising fashion. Mo Williams played 42 minutes and James logged 39 minutes.
The Heat will be highly motivated for this matchup, especially Wade going against his friend James. Wade wants to make sure his home turf is protected.
2♦ MIAMI HEAT
Chris Jordan
Phoenix +7' at L.A. LAKERS
Taking the Suns tonight plus the points against the Lakers.
Phoenix is off to its best start in 29 years, and you're telling me I get more than a touchdown in a showdown the Suns have been waiting for?
Phoenix didn't look any bit tentative or that it might be looking ahead last night, when it destroyed New Orleans by 20, and had control for most of the game. I expect the same intensity will carry right over to Staples Center for what should be one of the most entertaining sporting events of the evening.
The Suns lead the NBA in points per game this season with 112.3, so deal with that Kobe. All-Star point guard Steve Nash was in for all of 23 minutes last night against Chris Paul and the stingers from the Big Easy, yet the Canadian floor general posted his fourth consecutive double-double with 12 points and 10 assists. Nash leads the league in assists with 12.6 per game, now what Derek Fisher?
The Lakers are the team that is dinged up ... not Phoenix. The defending champs are the ones under pressure in my eyes.
Give me the road dog here and look for a tight one to go down to the wire.
3♦ PHOENIX SUNS
Bowling Green -3' at MIAMI-OHIO
Scoring huge with Bowling Green tonight in this MAC mismatch.
The Falcons are coming in well aware they cannot overlook this Miami-Ohio team, and that's important down the stretch when you're two games shy of being bowl eligible. If Bowling Green would have blown out Buffalo last week, this might be a good spot for Miami-O.
But the fact Buffalo put a scare into the Falcons, who pulled off a 30-29 come-from-behind win over Buffalo just a little more than a week ago, I think they learned their lesson about taking inferior opponents for granted.
Quite frankly, if you go back an look at Bowling Green's schedule, I don't know if there is one team it has come out and played great against and put it away early, and having never to looked back.
There's a certain due theory in the MAC; always has been, and the Falcons are knocking on destiny's door for this blowout tonight. There is a revenge theory too, and when you're in triple-revenge in conference play, and have the right spot to exact it, you tend to get pumped for games like this.
Fact is, with Miami arguably playing its best football right now, I have to believe Bowling Green will have no choice but to put its best foot forward tonight.
2♦ BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
Scott Delaney
Ball State at Northern Illinois
I'll play this one over the posted number, as I expect the Huskies to run things up a bit, and will force the Cardinals to play catch up.
Play this one high, as NIU once again gets into the 40s by itself. This is about time you see teams from this division separate themselves from the bad ones, and it comes in the form of offensive outbursts.
NIU scored 50 or more points last week for first time since 2004, it tallied more than 500 yards total offense and running backs Chad Spann and DeMarcus Grady each rumbled for more than 100 yards.
So why not just take the Huskies in this one? Cause Ball State generally has a decent showing against NIU, and since the Cardinals are the defending MAC West champion, I think there will be a sense of pride in this one.
This total seems awfully low, so I am playing it high.
2♦ NIU/Ball State OVER
Tony Weston
How easy was that winner last night on Syracuse? Well, I’m delivering another winner tonight but I’m switching gears and handing you an NFL winner as I’m taking the Under in the Bears-49ers Thursday night showdown.
The number for this game is hovering around 43 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this and these two will stay Under that number.
Consider that, coming into this game the 49ers have seen the Under go 5-2 their last 7 games when coming off a loss - and you know there have been plenty of losses to choose from. Also, in three home games against the NFC, the Niners have totaled, on average, just 41 points per game.
On the other side, the Bears come into this game having seen the Under go 36-17-2 their last 55 games when installed as a road underdog. More recently, Chicago has stayed Under the Total in 9 of its last 13 games on the road.
The points will be at a premium tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
3♦ BEARS-49ERS UNDER
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat
Tough spot for the Cavs, who come off a huge revenge-fueled win over Orlando last night. It's always tough to beat winning teams on the road in back to back nights in the NBA, particularly when one of those nights takes place in South Beach, always a distraction for visitors. Supporting our theory is a system that says to play against road underdogs in the 2nd game of BB's, provided they have a win % of .600 to .750 and are matched up with a winning foe. This system is 112-64 ATS the past five seasons. Take Miami.
EZWINNERS
South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Play: South Florida Bulls +2.5
Rutgers has owned USF the past few years, but the Scarlet Knights this season are not as good as they have been in the past. The Scarlet Knights do not have speed at running back now that Ray Rice is gone and their freshman quarterback Tom Savage is a statue in the pocket. That’s a very bad matchup against the speed of the pass rush that USF puts on the field with defensive ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. USF doesn’t have to worry so much about the run and can pin their ears back on the pass rush. Defensively Rutgers has proven vulnerable at times this season and USF quarterback B.J. Daniels should be able to take advantage of the vulnerabilities with his arm and legs. The Knights have played a very weak schedule this season and I think it will show here. Play on USF.