Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 14

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Texas Tech at Alabama
The Crimson Tide look to bounce back from their loss to Oklahoma in the opener and take advantage of a Texas Tech team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games. Alabama is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by 20. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-9 1/2)

Game 505-506: Detroit at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 60.172; Connecticut 66.300
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 6
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 21
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+21)

Game 507-508: Toledo at Boston College (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 48.390; Boston College 68.063
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-10)

Game 509-510: Temple at Towson (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 65.372; Towson 58.547
Dunkel Line: Temple by 7
Vegas Line: Towson by 4
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+4)

Game 511-512: Yale at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 53.100; Rutgers 64.357
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 8
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-8)

Game 513-514: William & Mary at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 50.219; Wichita State 76.268
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 26
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-15)

Game 515-516: Troy at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 50.271; UAB 59.305
Dunkel Line: UAB by 9
Vegas Line: UAB by 15
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+15);

Game 517-518: TX-San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 51.038; Houston 60.266
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9
Vegas Line: Houston by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+14 1/2)

Game 519-520: Texas Tech at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 51.193; Alabama 71.016
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 20
Vegas Line: Alabama by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-9 1/2)

Game 521-522: Loyola-Marymount at Long Beach State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 53.057; Long Beach State 57.621
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+2 1/2)

Game 523-524: Arizona at San Diego State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 66.901; San Diego State 71.427
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2 1/2)

Game 525-526: Northwestern at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 54.230; Stanford 70.237
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 16
Vegas Line: Stanford by 10
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-10)

Game 527-528: UC-Irvine at Washington (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 55.708; Washington 63.867
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8
Vegas Line: Washington by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+10 1/2)

Game 529-530: Indiana State at Belmont (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.294; Belmont 66.630
Dunkel Line: Belmont by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Belmont by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (-2 1/2)

Game 531-532: Austin Peay at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 45.043; Memphis 65.133
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 20
Vegas Line: Memphis by 23
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+23)

Game 533-534: Montana at South Dakota State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 51.261; South Dakota State 63.139
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 12
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-4 1/2)

Game 535-536: North Dakota State at St. Mary's (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 60.963; St. Mary's 64.522
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 7
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+7)

Game 541-542: MD-Eastern Shore at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 34.385; Iowa 72.320
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 38
Vegas Line: Iowa by 30
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-30)

Kyle Hunter

Cal-Irvine vs. Washington
Play: Cal-Irvine +10½

The UC Irvine Anteaters have two guys who are more than 7 feet tall. UC Irvine is going to have a big advantage inside since Washington's frontcourt is riddled with injuries right now. The Huskies are a team that rely far too heavily on C.J. Wilcox. Washington isn't the same team they were a few years ago, and they are getting a little too much love from the oddsmakers here. Take UC Irvine and the points.

Alex Smart

Arizona vs. San Diego St
Play: San Diego St +2

Arizona, Wildcats and the San Diego State Aztecs play man-to-man defense and are most effective in transition. They are very much alike in that respect. Arizona at No 6 are one of the nations top teams and are intrinsically talented . What evens the match up is San Diego State home court advantage which features a 12,000 seat noisy sell out that is extremely intimidating. It must also be noted that the Wildcats are 21-7 SU all time vs the Azrecs but are only 1-2 since HC Sean Miller took over the team. The Wildcats beat the Aztecs 68-67 in last season’s Diamond Head Classic championship, when guard Nick Johnson made a game-saving block in the final seconds, but lost 61-57 at McKale Center in 2011-12 and 63-46 at SDSU in 2009-10. Home court advantage Im betting makes this one very interesting and extremely close! Advantage goes to the Aztecs.

Brandon Shively

Temple vs. Towson
Play: Towson -3½

Towson was a team that I watched closely last year and they were in my opinion the nation's most improved basketball team winning 18 games and finishing 2nd in the Colonial Division. Towson this year returns 4 starters including Mr. Double Double Jerrelle Benimon (17ppg/ 11 rpg) . Running the ship for Towson is Jerome Hairston who is 6'3" and can dish the rock with the best in the conference. The one new addition that I really see helping take the pressure off Benimon is Vermont transfer Four McGlynn (America East Rookie of the Year) who led Vermont in 3 pointers as a freshman is a high volume shooter that can give Towson that outside-inside threat that will separate them from the pack . McGlynn is Towson's leading 3 point shooter though their first two games and he looks to be instant offense off the bench.

Temple on the other hand is rebuilding off a sub-par 24-10 record last year. The losses are heavy as only 2 of the 7 players that played in the NCAA tournament are back. This team is very inexperienced as they have only 267 career minutes played and going on the road tonight, they are outmatched at every position. Temple is only shooting 25% from behind the arch and I look for Towson to shoot a higher 3 point % than Temple tonight and the Towson bench to also be a key factor as they are deep and can push the pace if needed.

Rob Vinciletti

Marshall vs. Tulsa
Play:Marshall -12½

Marshall has the spot light tonight in a Thursday night game for Heisman hopeful in Qb Rakeem Cato who ben putting up big numbers, as Marshall has scored 166 points over their last 3 games. They will take on a Tulsa team that was blown out in its only 2 games vs winning teams this year. The line has dropped some as Marshall has not been good as a road favorite. However. They have been a door mat in this series losing all 4 times they have played. Marshall has home loss revenge here and has the offense to blow this one open. They have 120+ yard edge on offense and a defensive edge too. Tulsa is 0-5 ats at home after allowing 40 or more and has Covered in one game this season. Qb Cody Green is doubtful and they have had big injury problems this season and just lost Linebacker Trent Martin and Offensive lineman Stetson Burnett. Tulsa has struggled big time and are no where near the 11 win team they were last season. They are playing out the string here and will have to have an unbelievable game to not get blown out here. Make it Marshall tonight.

Jim Feist

Marshall vs Tulsa
Pick: Under

Marshall is going to try and throw while Tulsa will try and run the football and control the clock. Tulsa averages 158 yards rushing but is not an explosive offensive team averaging just 20 points. The under is 7-3 in the Golden Hurricane's last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. And the weather is not conducive to throwing the football, cold with 17 MPH winds and a 20% chance rain. The under is also 5-1 in Tulsa's last six Thursday night games and 8-3 under the total after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Bruce Marshall

Houston vs. New York
Pick: Over

We are not, repeat, NOT interested in laying points with a dysfunctional Houston Although Rockets obliterated the Knicks twice last season, and that even was before Dwight Howard showed up in a Rockets uniform. Now, the combination of big Dwight and no Tyson Chandler (leg injury) on Knicks side should mean a big edge in paint for Houston. Jeremy Lin (who still has many fans at MSG) also extra-motivated to face his old team that is having mucho defensive issues (even more exacerbated minus Chandler). And Rockets 109 ppg last eight. But Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, and J.R. Smith has returned from suspension. Add it up, and it looks like an "over" at MSG.

Bryan Power

San Jose vs. Vancouver
Pick: San Jose

I'd like to take a minute to point out that not only am I coming off a 4-1 Wednesday, but I also went 6-1 last Thursday including a 4-0 Football SWEEP!

After losing 5 games in a row (4-0 in OT/shootout), the Sharks got back into the win column Tuesday w/ a 3-2 overtime win over the Flames....

I expect San Jose to continue to get back on track tonight in Vancouver. The Pacific is shaping up to be the toughest division in the sport right now as the Sharks' 27 points only have them in third place, this despite no team having fewer losses in regulation. (St. Louis also only has two.) Just ask division foe Vancouver about the strength of the Pacific as the Canucks are coming off B2B losses to the Kings and Ducks where they managed only a pair of goals.

San Jose has won 5 of its last 6 here in Rogers Arena. At 6-1-3 away from home this season, the Sharks are just 1 of 4 teams in the league w/ only one road loss in regulation. Give them the edge in special teams for this matchup as both their power play and penalty killing units rank in the Top 10 in the league (Vancouver's PP ranks 28th). The Canucks have now gone three straight games w/out getting a point from the Sedin brothers. San Jose not only leads the league in scoring (3.6 goals per game), but also is on an almost record-setting pace by averaging over 37 shots/game.

Doug Upstone

Marshall vs. Tulsa
Play: Marshall -13

Tulsa is reeling on both sides of the ball and look to be packing it in for the season with no bowl hopes alive. Marshall is hitting it's stride offensively, scoring 117 points it's last two ballgames. Their defense has been stout as well, giving up only 27 points combined last two, albeit against weak competition. They face weak competition tonight in Oklahoma and should win this one by at least two touchdowns, and likely more. Lay the 13.

Ray Monohan

Houston Rockets vs. New York Knicks
Play: Houston Rockets -3½

With no inside presence to speak of the Knicks should be easy pickings for the Rockets Thursday night. Both teams played last night with the Knicks winning while the Rockets lost in overtime. That just helps by bringing down the number to an even more manageable figure. If you like numbers feel good about the fact that the Rockets also have won 7 straight against New York and 9 of 10. Obviously the bulk of those were without Dwight Howard but the sweep last year when they were playing the same kind of style even without him is a good indicator too.

LT Profits

Indianapolis vs Tennessee
Pick: Over 42

The Indianapolis Colts may be 6-3 with a two-game lead over their opponents tonight, the Tennessee Titans, in the AFC South, but the Colts come off of a 38-8 upset home loss to the Rams and they do not have the look of a playoff team although they will probably get there anyway playing in a weak division. Indianapolis has a one-dimensional passing offense with Trent Richardson being a bust, and its defense has been terrible lately. That is a nice combination for an ‘over’ though, especially with Andrew Luck throwing against a Tennessee defense that has not been great either, allowing an average of 27.0 points the last three games. Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over at quarterback for the Titans and he should be fine vs. a Colt defense allowing 9.5 yards per pass attempt the last three games! The ‘over’ is 9-1 in the Titans’ last 10 after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.

Temple Vs Towson
Pick: Temple +4

The Temple Owls return just two starters from the team that beat NC State and then barely lost to Indiana in the NCAA Tournament last season, but two of the open spots have been filled by players that played significant minutes off the bench and the Owls have had nice offensive balance while averaging 77.5 points through two game vs. decent competition (Kent State and Penn) with those four current starters all averaging 14.0 points or more. The Owls employ a three-guard offense most of the time and they have done a fine job protecting the ball, turning it over just 14.2 percent of the time against a national average of 18.1 percent. The Towson Tigers are 2-0, but Temple represents a jump in class after non-lined wins vs. Navy and Morgan State. Temple is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.

EZWINNERS

Tennessee Titans +2.5

The Colts and Titans both looked like total shit on Sunday. Indianapolis was demolished at home by the Rams which was the losing piece of a three team ten point teaser for me last week. The 38-8 loss to St. Louis was the worst home loss in 21 years for the Colts. While that was happening the Titans were busy allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to pick up their first win of the season on the road at Tennessee. To make matters worse for the Titans they also had starting quarterback Jake Locker suffer a season ending foot injury thrusting Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting position once again. Everyone and their mother will be on the Colts as they expect Indy to bounce back this week, but I'm not so sure. This is one of those lines that just seems to be begging for money on the Colts and they are getting it. I think Vegas could have set this line even higher and still got that same Indianapolis money which makes me think even more that Tennessee is the play. The Colts have been outgained by almost 100 yards per game over the past six weeks and the loss of Reggie Wayne seems to be huge to this Colts offense. The Titans have Chris Johnson and the running game going well which will help take the pressure off of backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and open up some play action shots down the field. The Colts trade for running back Trent Richardson has been a bust as Richardson does not make any explosive runs and Indy as a whole didn't even rush for twenty yards against St. Louis at home last week. Take the points.

Carlos Salazar

Indianapolis vs Tennessee
Play: Over 42

Would the real Indianapolis Colts please stand up. Who are the 2013 Colts? The team that beat the 49ers in San Francisco or the team that lost to the St. Louis Rams at home this past Sunday. Carlos says they are more likely to get over 30 points on the score board tonight and give up their fair share of points against a Tennessee team that was embarrassed in dropping a game to the previous winless Jaguars. Look for a higher scoring game with several defensive scores.

DAVE COKIN

NORTHWESTERN VS STANFORD
PLAY: STANFORD

It’s the battle of the big brains tonight as Northwestern journeys to Palo Alto for a meeting with Stanford. These are two of the most highly regarded academic institutions in the country, and they can both play some hoops to boot.

Last year’s duel between the Cardinal and Wildcats ended up going to the wire as Northwestern came battling back from a big early deficit, eventually losing by a deuce in Evanston. I’m not seeing this year’s edition being quite so close.

Chris Collins is the new head coach at Northwestern and he’s got the task of finding a way to lead the Wildcats to that elusive NCAA Tournament berth. I don’t see it happening this season, although the Wildcats should be a competitive bunch.

I’m wondering about how secure Johnny Dawkins is at Stanford. The Cardinal still have not made it to a Big Dance under Dawkins. Now in his sixth season at the helm and with a very experienced entry, it’s my feeling that it’s NCAA or bust for Dawkins. They’re not exactly off to the desired start, already having absorbed a home loss to BYU.

The loss to BYU was not surprising at all to me, and I had a play on the Cougars in that game. Simply stated, Stanford is a big and somewhat lumbering team that doesn’t match up well with up tempo, athletic opposition and BYU was therefore a bad matchup for the Cardinal.

Tonight should be a different story. Northwestern is the type of squad that’s built to exploit the vulnerabilities of this opponent. It’s a game where Stanford’s size should make a difference and the Cardinal also figure to be able to get to play the game at a pace they’re comfortable with.

I would assume that Dawkins will be treating this as a really important game. He’s on record as saying his team should make the tournament. If that’s going to happen, Stanford really needs to avoid another costly non-conference loss. It’s not like life is going to be easy in the PAC-12, and with a couple other potential non-league losses still a good possibility, I think it’s imperative Stanford avoid getting upset here.

The pure power ratings indicate the number might actually be a shade high tonight. But I like the matchup for the home team and I like their situation as well. I also like the fact that the Cardinal are usually very solid at the stripe which could be an additional key tonight. I’ll take my chances laying the lumber this time with Stanford.