Alex Smith Sports
Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders
Pick: New York Islanders
The Islanders face-off with the LA Kings on Thursday night. The Kings will be without star goalie Johnathan Quick, who flew back west to see about a lower body/groin injury. Ben Scrivens will start in net for at least 2 of the next 3 games on their east coast trip. Isles just broke a 4 game losing streak with a home victory against Nashville on Tuesday, and will be looking to take advantage of a solid but lesser dominate netminder for LA. I like New York to pull the upset at +105.
Mid-Major Matt
Yale at Rutgers
Pick: Yale
Yale and Rutgers take the court Thursday night in New Jersey. The Bulldogs lost 80-62 to UConn last time out. The Huskies blistered the nets shooting over 60% from long range while getting a triple double from Shabazz Napier. Rutgers has no one near the talent of a Napier or Ryan Boatright. This is a Scarlet Knight team who lost 79-76 at UAB last time out. They picked up their victory at home against Florida A&M 92-84 at home back on November 8th. Yale's got a couple of weapons in Justin Sears and Javier Duren. Rutgers has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times they have been a favorite. The road team will make things interesting for the Scarlet Knights on Thursday.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona/San Diego St Under 148½
I have to believe this total is set so high because of all the hype surrounding the new rules that have had an impact on opposing defenses. Even if that is the case, Arizona shoots just 60% from the free throw line, so the added fouls will not do a lot to benefit the overall scoring in this game. I don't think that will come into play though because both of these teams have played great defensively to start the season.
San Diego State gave up a mere 41 points to UC-Riverside in their season opener. Even against a lower tied team like Riverside, their 41 points allowed is impressive and speaks volumes about the talent level of this defense. Arizona is also a solid team defensively, holding their first two opponents to 59.5 points per game. This matchup should be close, as indicated by the two-point spread. That tells me this should be a slow paced game with both teams taking time to setup the offense on each possession.
The under is 8-1-1 in Arizona's last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 20 points. It is also 5-0-1 in their last six games against a team with a winning record. San Diego State is also trending towards the under. The under is 8-3-1 in the Aztec's last 12 games against Pac-12 opponents, and 11-5 in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Matt Fargo
North Dakota State vs. St. Mary's
Play: North Dakota State +6½
St. Mary's is off to a 2-0 start with blowout victories taking place each time. Now the Gaels are laying a short price to a school that not many know of and the public is lining up. They are easily the biggest consensus of the night and while that does not always prove to be poison, the Bison cannot be overlooked. North Dakota St. is a favorite to win the Summit League this season and after a 24-10 season a year ago, the Bison bring back all five starters so this team is loaded once again. They are coming off a blowout win over Viterbo from Division II and while we cannot take anything from that, we can point to the fact this team is not going to be intimidated tonight. They are great defenders, rebound the ball well and are very efficient on offense. St. Mary's lost Matthew Dellavedova and while it is expected to have another fine season overall, the Gaels are not as strong as they have been in the past. Look for this one to go right down to the wire.
Red Dog Sports
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Play: Georgia Tech +11½
Take Georgia Tech plus the points as the Yellow Jackets have been hot lately. Vad Lee is a solid runner and can complete some big passes that surprise the opponent. Clemson has plenty of offensive talent with QB Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins but I like the underdog getting double digits on Thursday night.
Sean Higgs
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Indianapolis Colts -2½
Sean Higgs has your Thursday Night NFL Network will feature the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts visiting LP Field to take on the 4-3 Tennessee Titans. A little bit of the shine is off this game as both teams are in off terrible losses. Indianapolis was throttled at home by the St Louis Rams 38-8, while the Titans suffered the indignity of losing to the win-less Jaguars. To add insult to injury, Tennessee has appeared to have lost QB Jake Locker for the year with an injury.
I will be the first to tell you I thought the Texans would control the AFC South, and the Colts would take a step back in Andrew Luck's second season under center. This team took on such a massive overhaul I thought they would regress. Obviously, I was wrong on both counts. The Texans have regressed while the Colts look like a potential Super Bowl contender for years to come.
So we have the Colts in off a total, beat down at home. Losing is one thing. When you have the Rams, who are on a 3 game losing streak and take it to you, it is time to look in the mirror. Now, I had the Rams. Could have been a little let-down spot as the Colts just beat the Texans and had another division on deck. I get it. But now is the time for this team to get back on track. The loss of Reggie Wayne is a big deal. He is one of the elder statesman of the locker room. Luck, as good as he is, is still a youngster. Don't forget, Indy was trailing 21-3 in the first half of the Houston game. They were down 28-0 last week at home. They can ill afford another bad half of football like that.
The Titans are a physical bunch. They are going to want to pound RB Chris Johnson all day long. He had only 30 yards last week on 12 carries vs the Jags. I think the Jags have a better run defense than the Colts though. Tennessee will look to Ryan Fitzpatrick to get them back into the division hunt. Sitting at 0-2, they are pretty much done if they hit 0-3 as the Colts would be 3-0. This guy is not terrible. He had a couple good years as the starter in Buffalo. It is easy to say, 'Hey, he lost both starts already this year.' Those games were vs Seattle and Kansas City. Not exactly league doormats. Now he gets the Colts. I wouldn't put Indy in those teams defensive level though. Fitzpatrick is a veteran presence, and has a couple decent wide-outs to help him stretch things out.
A pair of trends to make you think that the Titans are the play here. First, the home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 in the series. And #2, Indy is 2-5 ATS last 7 trips to Tennessee.
But then reality sets in. The simple fact is that Andrew Luck has yet to lose 2 games in a row. The Titans 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home and a miserable 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs AFC South opponents. How about 3-10-1 ATS last 14 vs teams with winning records?
The Colts ride in 6-1 ATS last 7 vs the AFC South and 9-2 ATS last 11 vs teams with losing records. They get it. They take care of business when the have to. The Colts have covered 7 in a row after a SU loss. The way the Titans have turned the ball over lately (4 last week, 13 last 5) I will go with the small road favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
TENNESSEE +130 over Indianapolis
Which Colts’ team shows up tonight is the question. Are we going to see the one that went into San Fran and whacked the 49ers and were the first team to defeat the Broncos or are we going to see the one that looked awful against Houston on Monday Night two weeks ago in that miracle win and were subsequently massacred by the Rams last week? Seriously, how do you get butchered at home by St. Louis? While it is easy to write it off as just one game, it was very troubling to see the first game without Reggie Wayne looking like they had a giant hole to fill. And with the passing game taking a big step down, the failures of the rushing attack were even more glaring. Trent Richardson has literally declined in every game since week four and in the last moth he has not had more than 40 rushing yards in any game. Pass the ball, you say? Well, the Titans pass defense is outstanding with only seven scores allowed all year and just two at home. The Titans are tops in the NFL against wide receivers. The only time in the entire season any receiver managed a 100 yard game against them was DeAndre Hopkins thanks to catching a long pass. Perhaps the Colts greatly overachieved in the first half of the season. Losing is one thing, as it happens to every team but Indy has looked as bad as any team in the NFL in seven of its past eight quarters over two weeks after its bye week. This might not be the best time to be spotting road points on a short week with a team that looks this bad.
How does a team lose to the Jaguars? The visiting Jaguars no less? Apparently the equation is to take out the opponents quarterback, get a safety, score on a fumble recovery and get five turnovers and it can happen. Obviously, the Titans were looking ahead to this Thursday prime timer and it’s something we pointed out last week. Still, with all those miscues, the Titans still only lost by a deuce and not 30 points like the Colts did at home against St. Louis. Jake (The Mistake) Locker was placed on injured reserve and that leaves Ryan Fitzpatrick in control for the rest of the year. Fitzpatrick played well in relief of Locker last Sunday when he scored three touchdowns and passed for 264 yards. Fitzpatrick is no savior but he's more than adequate as a replacement quarterback and frankly, we like this guy better than Locker. All of last year and in the first half of this year, the Colts had just about every bounce go their way. They had been winning for a season and a half and it was all smoke and mirrors. Well, the clock has struck midnight and the Colts perfect, magical run has ended and they may not get it back. Titans outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Georgia Tech +11 over CLEMSON
It's very difficult to rebound from a devastating loss when that loss wrecks virtually every team goal. Three weeks ago, Clemson managed to beat a depleted Maryland team after that humiliating loss to Florida State but pretty it was not. The Tigers subsequently went into Virginia and clobbered the Cavaliers by 49 points and now they’ve had 12 days to prepare for this one. Had this game been scheduled before Virginia and after Maryland, the line would be about -7 and not -11. Two easy opponents after that loss to FSU have the Tigers overvalued again. Although Clemson would like nothing more than to stick to this visitor, the Yellow Jackets are coming on and always seem to give the Tigers fits.
The Yellow Jackets are not an easy team to figure out. They’re 5-2 in the conference and 6-3 overall but none of their wins have been of the notable variety. However, Tech has won 8 of the past 11 in this series and has found a rhythm of its own with three successive wins. Georgia Tech’s defense is also much improved over last season, ranking No. 3 in the league in total defense. The Yellow Jackets have also started to put together a passing game to complement their outstanding ground attack. Great defense, a balanced attack, a foe they always play tough and 11 points is more than enough bullets for us to step in.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -½ +132 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
Regulation only. The Islanders returned home from a four-game trip to defeat the Predators 3-1 on Tuesday. Big deal. The Preds have not been able to keep the puck out of their own net ever since Pekka Rinne went down. More notable for the Islanders was a four-game road trip against Eastern Conference opponents that saw the Islanders lose a lot of four-point games. New York dropped consecutive decisions to Washington, Carolina, Columbus and Montreal, getting outscored by a 16-6 margin. The Islanders were also outshot in all four contests, despite trailing for much of each game (something that normally inflates shot totals for the trailing team). Evgeni Nabokov is the league’s worst goaltender and it’s not even close. Nabokov has likely lost the #1 spot to Kevin Poulin but that’s something that remains to be seen. Regardless, whomever is in net tonight, and hopefully it’s Nabokov, it’s not going to matter, as the Islanders have regressed badly and no end is in sight until they fix their defense and goaltending.
L.A embarked on a four-game easy trip that started in Buffalo and continues on here followed by a game in New Jersey and New York against the Rangers. The Kings lost to Buffalo in OT but pay no attention to that, as they played one of their best games of the year and ran into a sick Ryan Miller. The Kings outshot the Sabres 45-17. After a slow start, the Kings are beginning to turn up the heat. They have badly outplayed each of their last eight opponents. In their last two losses to Buffalo and Nashville, they outshot that pair 93-35. The Kings are out of the playoff picture right now but that’s something that will change drastically, as this is still one of the top 3 teams in the NHL and offer outstanding value against a dreg like the Islanders. Ben Scrivens replaces Jonathan Quick (injured) and that’s fine by us, as Quick has a wretched save % of .896 this season.
Colorado +139 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes are tough to beat, especially at home but this team rarely wins by more than a goal, they don’t score much (two goals in four of their past five games) and should the game go into OT, a distinct possibility, they usually lose. St. Louis is just 3-2 over its past five games. All three wins came against struggling teams (Pittsburgh, Calgary and Montreal) and both of their losses occurred against teams in good form (Tampa Bay and Phoenix). Yeah, they can win here but this game figures to be tight and in that regard one has to give the Avalanche at least a 48-50% chance of winning.
The Avalanche remain hot. They have won eight of 10 road games this season and they are a perfect 8-0 in their last eight games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. If they create scoring chances here, some are bound to go in because Jaroslav Halak has been about as average as any goaltender in the league. Halak has not been exposed as such because the Blues are so efficient defensively but these Avs have the firepower and creativeness to do some damage. Regardless of how you break this one down, the Avalanche offer up too much value in this price range to ignore. Of course they can win here.
SPORTS WAGERS
North Dakota State +7 over ST. MARY’S
For year’s it’s been St. Mary’s and Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference battling for the title and as a result, the Gaels have become quite a recognizable program. In fact, St. Mary’s has reached the NCAA tournament in two straight years, which has this team on the radar once again and it sure doesn’t hurt that they are off to a quick 2-0 start with a 13-point win and a 22-point win. However, for the first time in four years, Saint Mary's will be without guard Matthew Dellavedova, one of the nation's best offensive players and the team's leader in each of the past two seasons. The Gaels will still be good with other key contributors returning but this is one of those games that look easy but is far from it.
North Dakota is not on the NCAA map yet. After all, they play in the Summit League, which features some of the least recognizable schools in the country. Combine that with the Gaels being a known program and it creates an inflated number. On Jan. 17 of last season, North Dakota State was 7-0 in Summit League play and looked like the favorite to win the conference championship and make some noise in March. However, the Bison’s top player, Taylor Braun got injured and did not return until the title game in which the Bison lost by six points. The good news is that every starter and key reserve from that squad is back this season. The Bison finished fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding rate and held opponents to just 42% shooting inside the arc. Coach Saul Phillips does not need to do much tweaking to win big with this roster. With so much returning firepower, he has the Bison well positioned to be the best team in the Summit League and perhaps one of the top squads from outside the major conferences. With that, we’ll accept this inflated price.
Pass NBA
Raphael Esparza
Indianapolis (-3) over Tennessee
The Colts will be looking to erase the bad home loss they received last week against the Rams. St. Louis was up early against the Colts, and the halftime score was St. Louis 28-0, so in this matchup I see Indy starting off hot. Tennessee not only lost last week to Jacksonville (27-29), but they lost QB Jake Locker, and now Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start. I'm no fan of Fitzpatrick, and Andrew Luck will have a big road game and out-duel Fitzpatrick Thursday night. The Colts have had success on the road, going 3-1, and again the Colts will play much better in this game than they did at home against the Rams. The Colts are 10-1 ATS following a SU loss, and the Colts are also 9-2 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Titans are 2-8-1 ATS against AFC South teams. Prediction in this game is that Indy scores first and last, and I see A. Luck winning this game with ease and winning by double-digits.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Indianapolis/ Tennessee Over 42.5: The Colts scored just 8 points vs the Rams last week, but Andrew Luck still had 353 yards passing in the game, so it was turnovers that did them in. Prior to last week's game, the Colts had scored 63 points in their 2 previous games and they had hit 27 or more in 5 of their previous 6 games. This is still a very good offense, despite what happened last week. Now as far as their defense, they have been bad as they come in allowing 428 ypg and 31.7 ppg over their last 3 games. The Tennessee defense has also been roughed up a bit over their last 3 games, allowing 27 ppg over that stretch, and we note that those three games were vs weak offensive teams in Jacksonville, St Louis and San Fran. On offense the Titans will be without Locker, but Fitzpatrick has been solid this in his place this year and should be able to put up some points on this weak Colts defense. I know the Under is 13-3 the last 16 in this series, but with two weak defenses and 2 solid offenses we should be able to hit at leas 45 in this one.
Jack Jones
Marshall -12½
The Thundering Herd got off to a tough start this season with three absolutely brutal losses. They have lost two games by a combined five points to at Ohio (34-31) and at Middle Tennessee (49-51), as well as a triple overtime loss at Virginia Tech (21-29). That’s how close this team is to being 9-0 right now. They have responded with back-to-back blowout victories over Southern Miss (61-13) and UAB (56-14) to show what kind of dominant team they really are.
Tulsa is clearly in rebuilding mode in 2013 and came into the season way overvalued after winning the Conference USA Title last season. It has gone 2-7 straight up and a woeful 1-8 against the spread. It has hardly been competitive, either. The Golden Hurricane have suffered five of their seven losses by 17 points or more. Their only wins have come against Colorado State (30-27) and UTEP (34-20). They are coming off a 24-58 loss at East Carolina, which is a team that is similar in talent level to Marshall.
Marshall has a huge edge offensively in this one. It is scoring 42.6 points and averaging 493.7 yards per game to rank 14th in the country in total offense. Tulsa is scoring 20.6 points and averaging 369.4 yards per game to rank 90th in total offense. The edge also goes to the Thundering Herd on the other side of the ball. They are allowing 20.9 points and 359.4 yards per game to rank 27th in total defense. The Golden Hurricane are yielding 34.0 points and 406.8 yards per contest.
Plays against a home team (TULSA) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points are 34-7 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Tulsa is 1-14 against the spread off two straight losses by 17 points or more since 1992. The Golden Hurricane are 26-44 against the number after allowing 37 or more points in their last game since 1992. Bet Marshall Thursday.
Steve Janus
Rockets/Knicks Over 204½
With or without James Harden the Rockets should have little trouble scoring the basketball at will against a Knicks defense that can't protect the paint. Atlanta scored 91 points with just 4 3-pointers last night vs the Knicks and that was because they got whatever they wanted inside. Houston is even more potent down low with Dwight Howard and should have a better time hitting from the outside. New York made a key move prior to last night's game, as they started Carmelo Anthony at the 4. New York's offense responded by hitting 12 3-pointers and I look for that hot shooting from the outside to stick as they return home. The Rockets have allowed at least 100 points in three of their four road games and the lone exception came against a lackluster Utah team.
Tony Finn
Colts / Titans Under 43
Thursday night's AFC match-up between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans is not what it once was. Different players, coaches, schemes and possible results as the Colts have slid badly since starting the season with impressive victories, highlighted by a miserable home loss by the Colts to the Rams and in ugly fashion. The Tennessee Titans lost at home, too, and did so against a winless Jacksonville club losing Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury.
Indianapolis is in control of the division and after losing at home to the Jags Tennessee is facing a three game road trip following Thursday's match-up making them a playoff dead dog
What to make of the Colts? Young, inexperienced, injury riddled and rushing deficient.The Colts beat the likes of Seattle, San Francisco and Denver and have lost to NFL organizations without winning records. This is the sign of a young group. The Colts knew they needed more ground-round and when they acquired Trent Richardson from Cleveland they believed they had added the missing piece -- problem is their offensive line play has been dismal. Richardson is averaging 35.7 yards rushing over seven games since arriving from the Browns. Although Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards, he was picked off three times - matching his total from the previous eight games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lost two starts in place of Locker last month, threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, but doesn't have that "it factor" or experience to close out games or mount a winning drive. His fumble with 2 minutes to go at home against the Jags doomed the Titans. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars. Since Titans have been nothing short of sloppy on offense giving the ball away 13 times in their last five games.
The Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meeting between the two teams and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Tennessee.