Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 15

David Chan

Boston vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Over

The Celtics are coming off a 98-93 win over the Jazz at home last night.

Paul Pierce had 23 points; Leandro Barbosa and Jeff Green each had 16 points.

Rajon Rondo had 10 assists, but left the game in the third quarter with injury.

I believe the Celtics will rally here if Rondo is in fact on the bench for this contest, as its other key players are finally forced to play a leadership role in a hostile environment.

And note that Boston has already seen the total go "over" the number in both games that it's played this year as an underdog.

The Nets are coming off a 114-101 win over Cleveland on Tuesday.

Deron Williams had 26 points and 10 assists; Joe Johnson bounced back from a couple of sub-par efforts with 25 points:

''It's probably the best game that we've had together,'' Johnson said after. ''It's still early in the season, but yeah, I'm sure that's the vision everybody had, that's the vision I had and I'm sure this won't be the last (big) game. Like I say man, we're just figuring things out.''

Brook Lopez chipped in 23 points.

Note that Brooklyn has seen the total go "over" the number in three of four in front of the home town crowd thus far.

Expect these divisional foes to battle each other to the very end, and for this total to sneak above the posted number late!

Rob Vinciletti

North Carolina vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia

Virginia has won 14 of the last 15 here at home vs North Carolina in this series going way back to the early 1980/s. Virginia has covered over 75% of the time as a dog with revenge. Last season they had more yards than the Heels in a road loss. The Heels are 0-4 ats on the road this season with 3 spread failures as a road favorite. They are off a wild loss last week scoring 50 points at home and still losing by 18 to Georgia Tech. Now they take to the road against a Virginia team with a defensive edge. Look for Virginia to get the cash tonight.

Dave Cokin

Valparaiso vs Nebraska
Pick: Valparaiso

Tim Miles is a great hire for Nebraska. But he inherits a cupboard that is pretty much empty and Nebraska is likely going to struggle all season. This veteran Valparaiso team is simply the better outfit and should be able to earn the comfortable road win and cover. Lay the points with Valpo.

Jim Feist

Heat at Nuggets
Pick: Over

Miami has plenty of offensive punch and an uptempo offense, on a 15-7-1 run over the total. The over is 5-1 in the Heat's last 6 vs. the Western Conference and 4-1-1 over the total in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Denver loves to play an attacking, uptempo offense and their last two games have gone over the total. While Denver is home and rested, Miami this will be the 5th straight road game for Miami and the 4th game in 5 nights -- all on the road. Look for Denver to run right at the tired visitors. Play the Heat/Nuggets Over the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Virginia Over 61: This North Carolina defense is having a rough time of late as they have allowed 544 ypg and 45.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The Carolina defense has been very bad vs the pass over that stretch, allowing 317 ypg through the air and they will be facing one of the better pass offenses in the league in Virginia. The Cavs have really had a nice passing game this year as they have averaged 284 ypg (33rd in nation) through the air this year, while at home they have averaged 327.2 ypg passing. They should have another solid passing day in this and they will have to if they hope to keep pace with this high powered Carolina attack. The Heels come in ranked 15th in total offense (488.7 ypg) and 10th in scoring offense (40.5 ppg). This is a balanced offense that ranks 29th in the nation in passing (287.7 ypg) and 30th in rushing (201 ypg). Carolina does run a very quick no-huddle offense, which will tire out a defense and that should allow them to put up plenty of points on this tough Virginia defense. The Cavs defense is tough overall, but last week they did allow Miami 420 yards and 40 points and this Carolina offense is much better than the Canes. ESPN should be glad to have this game as it will be a fun one, with both teams topping the 30 point mark.

Matt Fargo

UTEP vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona

Last season was a rebuilding one in Arizona but the Wildcats were still able to win 23 games and they had a chance to make it back to the NCAA Tournament but lost to Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship and had to settle for an NIT invite. The fact they went as far as they did was a surprise and it was a huge building block for the future and that future starts this year. A year ago, head coach Sean Miller was reduced to playing only eight players after suspensions and injuries ravaged the Wildcats. Now there is plenty of depth and Arizona is loaded with talent that features size down low and a backcourt with proven star ability. Forward Solomon Hill is a first-team All-Pac 12 big man while freshman Grant Jerrett is a star in the making and was selected to the preseason All-Pac 12 second team. Xavier transfer Mark Lyons was able to play right away since he actually graduated so the tools are in place for a big run. The Wildcats opened with Charleston Southern and they didn't exactly blow the Buccaneers away like many thought would happen. Still, it was a very impressive night on offense as Arizona had 25 assists to just eight turnovers and that efficiency is huge going forward. UTEP comes to town following an impressive 20-point win over a very good Oral Roberts team. The Miners slipped last season as the offense was offensive at times and there is not a lot to think it will not be the same this year. They scored 69 points against the Golden Eagles while committing only seven turnovers but they went just 1-7 from long range and the defense they will be facing tonight is a lot stronger. UTEP put together a strong non-conference schedule that will help once C-USA play starts but it could be a long road prior to that. Even head coach Tim Floyd said the tougher schedule "seemed like a good idea last spring" but he wasn't as sure before the season began. The Miners need work in a lot of areas and playing against some elite teams won't necessarily help that early on. We are catching a pretty favorable line here as the Wildcats seem to be undervalued based on their average opening win coupled with the UTEP blowout. Expect the blowout to go the other way tonight.

Charlie Scott

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Miami Dolphins

Thursday Night Football this week sets up well for Miami. The Dolphins are off a lackluster effort vs the Titans (Which we Won), off a bye week. Meanwhile the Bills are off a heartbreaking last second loss to the Patriots, in a game which the Bills probably should of won. The Bills defense is bad, while their offense struggles when QB Fitzpatrick faces pressure. I expect Miami to play focused Tonight and their defense to put pressure on Fitzpatrick. Shop for the best # !

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami/ Buffalo Over 45: Neither QB has had a great year, but both could have a big game in this one. The Dolphins come in ranked 28th in the league vs the pass, allowing 278 ypg and that should allow Fitzpatrick to get some big plays down field like he did last week vs New England. What will also help open some throwing lanes is that Buffalo's 6th ranked running game will take on a Miami team that has allowed 135 ypg on the ground in their last 4 games. On the other side Miami QB Ryan Tannehill should be able to put up some very good numbers vs a Buffalo defense that is 31st in yards allowed overall (410 ypg) and 28th in the league vs the pass. Both of these teams will look to throw the ball vs a couple of hapless defenses and that should have this game flying over the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

New York/ San Antonio Over 193.5: The Spurs are no longer a team that just likes to slow the game down and rely on their defense to win games. This is now a team the like to get out and run as well and they do come in averaging 99 ppg at home on the year. The Spurs still do play solid defense, but may have problems in that department tonight vs a NY squad that has scored at least 99 points in each game this year. The Knicks average 103.6 ppg overall and 104 ppg on the road and they should be able to score on this San Antonio team team tonight. The Knicks defense has been better than expected this year, but they will have problems slowing down this Spurs offense tonight. Both teams will look to push tempo here and that should lead to plenty of points and a game in the 200's. KEY TREND--- Over is 20-7 in Spurs last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Brooklyn/ Boston Under 192: This has been a low scoring series of late, as 6 of the last 7 games between these teams have seen 177 points or less being scored. Overall the last 7 in this series has averaged 174.8 ppg. I don't see much changing here. The Celts played last night and will not be up for a fast past game. The Nets do score 96.5 ppg, but that's mainly due to the 45.4 % shooting they have and not the pace. I don't expect them to shoot that well vs a good Boston defense tonight. This will not be a faced paced game as the Celts come in averaging just 76.9 shots per game (28th) while the Nets have averaged just 78.5 shots per game (24th). This one should bs another low scoring affair by these teams.

SPORTS WAGERS

VIRGINIA +3 +100 over North Carolina

Certainly not interested in spotting road points with a Tar Heels squad that surrendered 68 points last week to the Yellow Jackets in what turned out to be the highest scoring game in ACC history. North Carolina has also been shredded by N.C. State, Duke and Virginia Tech in three of the past four weeks, allowing scores of 35, 33 and 48 respectively to that group. After that track meet on Saturday, the Tar Heels will now travel on short rest where they have dropped three of their four road games this season, including losses to Wake and Duke. With no shot at the division and already Bowl eligible, UNC has little to play for here.

Virginia has also lost to both Duke and Maryland and looked pretty ugly in doing so. After opening the year 2-0, the Cavaliers subsequently lost six straight and included in that set was a 56-20 loss to the same Yellow Jackets that the Tar Heels lost 68-50 to last week. However, since losing to Wake on October 20, followed by a week off, the Cavaliers have regrouped to win two in a row over N.C. State, 33-6 and last week’s thrilling 41-40 win over Miami. In his first start since Sept. 29, Virginia quarterback Michael Rocco took control of the offense last week by throwing four touchdowns, no interceptions, 18 straight completions and 300 yards. With its confidence restored and playing a battered defense, Virginia is in a much better situational spot, not to mention in better form too.

BUFFALO -2½ over Miami

Miami’s good start is a distant memory and with two straight losses, the Dolphins are now hoping for a wild card spot at best. A loss here would pretty much eliminate that. Ryan Tannehill's only passed for five touchdowns all year and while he had one freak game with 431 yards in Arizona, he's rarely managed more than a very average 220 yards with this offense. Miami was torched at home to the unlikely Titans last week and now must travel to Orchard Park on a short week. Coach Joe Philbin's statement that, “we need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch", only confirms the difficulty the visitor faces on these Thursday games.

The Bills are on a three game losing streak thanks to a one point loss to the Titans, playing in Houston and then nearly beating the Patriots in their stadium. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that they could’ve just as easily gone 3-0 against that trio. Buffalo has added incentive after being swept by this division foe last year and considering that Miami has not scored a touchdown in six quarters, the Bills’ offense should provide enough to cover this small number. No units risked.

Joseph D'Amico

New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: New York Knicks

New York has the only perfect record in the NBA. They face the 2nd hottest team here in San Antonio. The Knicks opened up their 3-game road trip with a 99-89 win over Orlando on Tuesday. The Spurs have won 22 of their L24 at home. NYs, Carmelo Anthony is leading the League in scoring, with 26.8 PPG. Smith, Felton, Chandler, Brewer, and Kidd are all contributing to the team's success. They have covered both road games TY and overall are holding opponents to just 87.8 PPG. San Antonio is good but their old legs will be playing their 4th game in seven days. Over their L2 outings, the Spurs eked out victories of 3 and 2 points. They have talent but will not be able to contend with the younger Knicks legs come the 4th quarter. Take the points with New York here.

Jimmy Boyd

San Antonio Spurs -5

I expect the Knicks to suffer their first loss of the season tonight. They have been rolling right along but now face their toughest challenge of the season to date. The Spurs don't lose at home, and they have had New York's number.

San Antonio went 28-5 at home last season and was 36-5 at home the previous year. The Spurs are 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 home games and 45-18-5 ATS in their last 68 games overall.

The Spurs have won their last two against the Knicks by nine and 13 points. They have also won 11 of the last 13 in the series with 10 of the wins coming by at least six points. Going back 15 years, the Spurs are 14-3 SU and 11-4-2 ATS at home against the Knicks. The average score in these 17 games was San Antonio 95, New York 87. Lay the points.

Sharky's Sports

Akron +4.5

I think this match-up works in Akron’s favor in terms of style of play, and I think they keep this one close throughout and potentially pull through at the end. Akron is returning 4 out of 5 starters from a relatively successful team last year that really came full circle towards the end of the season last year, and I think they will be fired up for this game as it’s a chance to make a big statement early in the year against an Oklahoma State team which I personally think is very mediocre. Akron’s strength lies in their versatility; this is a team who loves to get out and run, but also can find good looks in the flow of an offense. Akron is exceptional from downtown (last year they shot 37% from 3 and are returning their main shooters this year), and equally as efficient at defending the 3 (they held opponents last year to a mere 30% from downtown in a conference known to have solid shooters). However, like I just mentioned, this team is extremely dynamic and even if their 3’s aren’t dropping in this match-up against Oklahoma State, they have a force down low in Zeke Marshall who they can work the inside-out game off of. Anyone who knows anything about Akron basketball knows that Zeke Marshall is a major impact player, not necessarily because of his numbers but because this 7 footer lead the nation in blocked shots last season. This is especially crucial in this match-up because with the loss of Keiton Paige, Oklahoma State has been much less reliant on the long ball and have been working inside off their bigs. If Zeke is able to stay out of foul trouble )which has always been his achilles heal but coach Keith Dambrot seems to have really emphasized this to Zeke early in the season as he only has 4 total fouls over their first two games), they he will create nightmares for Oklahoma State bigs, who won’t see many clean looks. If Zeke is able to clog up the lane like he is accustomed to, then Oklahoma State will have to resort to the outside game, and as I previously mentioned they are shaky from downtown this year, Akron is solid at defending the 3, and also missed 3’s lead to fast-breaks, which plays right into the hands of Akron’s style. Both teams love to run and are very turnover prone, so I see a sloppy game here, but I don’t think Oklahoma State has enough of an edge this early in the season to justify laying the points here on a neutral court. I think this game goes down to the last few possessions, and in that case we are getting +4.5 points.

Baylor -12

Baylor’s highly touted freshman center Isiah Austin is questionable for this game as he sprained his ankle in their opener against Lehigh and sat out in their last game. I think the line is an over-exaggeration to this uncertainty, and for that reason I see value in Baylor. Baylor is the far superior team athletically, and it’s not even close. The way they have dominated their first two games, combined with the extreme youth of Boston College (their starting line-up is comprised of all freshmen and sophomores) leads me to predict that BC will come out intimidated here, and when Baylor smells fear, it’s all over. Boston College is a very turnover prone team who shot very poorly from downtown in their home opener win against FIU. The one huge bright spot was the 29 points and 17 boards by sophomore Ryan Anderson, but this was against an FIU team that lost their only decent big man in Dejuan Wright. Things will be completely different against Baylor (with or without Austin), and I see Anderson really struggling with their length down low as he’s not particularly athletic or physical (he’s more of a finesse player). If he is out of his element down low with the physicality and athleticism of Baylor, Boston College will have to get production elsewhere, and that is a huge task to ask underclassmen against a ruthless and hungry Baylor team. This Baylor team may be short-handed compared to the squad they had last year, but don’t let that fool you they can flat out play. I think they pull away by 15+ here without Austin, and if Austin is able to see the court, I see this as a 20 point victory.

John Ryan

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
Prediction: Boston Celtics

The simulator shows a high probability that Boston will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at getting an important road win. Adding a 1.5* amount using the money is recommended, but is optional. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-36 ATS for 67% winners since 2007. Play on dogs averaging 48 or less rebounds per game on the season with the game taking place in November games. The sim shows a high probability that Brooklyn will score between 87 and 92 points and that Boston will score between 93 and 98 points in this game. In past games where these levels have occurred, Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game since 1996. Take the Celtics.