Andre Gomes
Boston Celtics / Brooklyn Under 190
Boston had a tight win last night against Utah, in a game where they had to play without Rajon Rondo for most of the second half. However, the Celtics finally saw their bench having a good game, with Leandro Barbosa, Courtney Lee, Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox! The problem for the Celtics tonight is indeed the back to back spot, besides the fact that Rajon Rondo is questionable for tonight. We all know that the Celtics are a jump shooting team while being a bad offensive rebound team at the same time. In fact, they are the worst team on offensive rebounding in the league! They are #1 on volume from 16-23 feet with 32.8%, but fortunately, due to their good ball movement, they get nice looks and they have a good FG%! The problem is their bad physical spot for tonight and when they have tired legs, the percentages go down big time! This has already been seen a lot this season and with possibly Rajon Rondo having to miss this game, the team loses a lot, as Rondo knows exactly whose teammates are on the right spots to shoot the ball.
On the other side, we have Brooklyn's red hot offense. They are 3-0 on their last three games, but they defeated a shorthanded Orlando twice and on their last game, they defeated Cleveland, who is by far the worst defensive team on the league with a horrible 112.45 defensive rate! Cleveland's rim defense has been historically bad and even Brooklyn had a rare nice rim offense game with 22-29 FG! This isn't usual in them, as they are one of the teams with less FG attempts at the rim in the league, something that benefits Boston's defense.
Until now, the Nets have been one of the teams with the slowest pace in the league (#28 with 88.71). I believe Boston won't mind playing a half court game on this poor physical spot for them tonight. Brooklyn will feel bigger offensive problems tonight than they had against Orlando twice and Cleveland, while Boston will also struggle in being so effective on their long range shooting on a poor physical spot for them. Therefore, I expect a slow paced game in here with both teams showing problems on offense, so I'll be taking the Under in here.
Steve Janus
Boston Celtics +5
The Celtics come into this game having won three straight an five of six overall. While they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, this team is simply too talented to be getting this many points.
Brooklyn is extremely overrated right now. The Nets are 4-2 but those four wins have come against the Raptors, Magic (twice) and Cavaliers. Not one of those teams is expected to make the playoffs. In their two losses against much better talent, Brooklyn got beat at home 107-96 by the Timberwolves and were embarrassed on the road at Miami 103-73.
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs -5
I'll side with the San Antonio Spurs to hand the New York Knicks their first loss of the season Thursday night. San Antonio is off to a tremendous start once again this year at 7-1 as it continues to be one of the best regular season teams in the league.
New York is overvalued right now due to its surprising 5-0 start. Aside from its season-opening win over Miami, which came under strange conditions in a game that shouldn't have even been played because of the hurricane, the Knicks don't have a good win on their resume. They have beaten the 76ers twice, the Mavs and the Magic.
The home team has been dominant in this series, and so has San Antonio. The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 in this series. The Spurs are 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Knicks, winning by 7 or more points in all four victories. San Antonio is 14-3 SU & 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 home meetings.
The Spurs are 45-18-5 ATS in their last 68 games overall. San Antonio is 34-15-3 ATS in its last 52 home games. The Knicks are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio. San Antonio is 27-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
Andrew Lange
Western Carolina at Wichita State
Play: Western Carolina
Spot plays don't come around too often this early in the college basketball season but I'm not expecting an all-out effort from Wichita State this evening. On Tuesday, the Shockers grabbed a big road with at VCU – the type of victory that pads a resume and has everyone talking that despite losing five key seniors, Wichita is a force to be reckon with. That may be the case as there is a lot of talent on this team. But having seniors is what helps avoid letdown situations. Western Carolina closed out last season strong, taking Davidson to double OT in the So-Con tournament championship game. They don't have anything particularly special; Larry Hunter typically brings in raw athletes who play hard. Wichita led NC Central by 20 much of the second half but backed off late and won by 14. No one played more than 28 minutes in that game and I would imagine, two days removed from the grinder at VCU, Gregg Marshall will spread the wealth in terms of playing time. Underdog worth a look here.
Scott Delaney
I love the Minnesota Golden Gophers men's basketball program, am well familiarized with Williams Arena, and will be playing this team often. I know visiting Tennessee State is usually formidable out of the Ohio Valley Conference, but tonight they're going to have their hands full. The Tigers are in the midst of a long road trip, after opening their campaign against BYU in Provo and South Dakota State in Brookings. Tennessee State lost 81-66 to the Cougars and followed with a loss to the Jack Rabbits 78-71.
Now they take on a team that is 9-1 all-time against teams currently in the OVC, and a coach - Tubby Smith - who is 16-0 all time against teams currently in the OVC. For Smith, that includes a 2-0 mark against the Tigers.
After blasting Mankato State and Southwest Baptist in a pair of exhibition games, the Golden Gophers opened the regular season with blowout wins over American (72-36) and Toldeo (82-56). Minnesota opened the American game on a 15-0 run, shutting out the Eagles by limiting them to no field goals over the first 5:49 of the game. The Gophers used a similar approach in their second game, starting the Toledo game on a 12-0 run by stifling the Rockets to without a field goal for the first 4:21 of the game.
Now you have a travel-weary Tennessee State team coming to town, and I can't imagine anything changing with the way the Gophers attack this team. Lay the points.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien.
My free winner for Thursday night is going to be the St. John's Red Storm, who continue to play during their four-game season-opening week with a visit to the 2012 Charleston Classic. Both St. John's and the College of Charleston Cougars are both 1-0, and do battle here in the first round in a 2:30 pacific time tip.
I've been a big fan of this team and am a bigger fan of coach Steve Lavin, who returns in 2012-13 after posting a 2-2 record last season while making a full recovery from prostate cancer surgery. And while the Red Storm and Lavin were going through a traumatic season, the Storm secured the No. 8 recruiting class in the nation per HoopScoop.com. St. John's 2012 recruiting class is comprised of eight standout student-athletes representing five countries, and the highly-acclaimed group followed a 2011 class that was ranked third nationally by ESPN.
And yet all that being said, St. Johns is catching points mainly because Charleston is hosting this event. I have no problem taking the number against a team adapting to a brand new coach. Doug Wojcik is in his first year as the head coach of the Cougars after spending seven years as the head coach at Tulsa.
Look for Lavin to lead the Red Storm to a huge win over the Cougars.
3♦ ST. JOHNS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Brooklyn Nets as the home favorite over the Boston Celtics.
Boston has won straight up in six of the last seven series meetings, including the last three, but that streak is most definitely in jeopardy tonight as the C's make their first stop to the Barclays Center fresh off a home win over Utah last night.
This is Boston's third game in four nights, and they play it with Rajon Rondo having turned his ankle in last night's victory over the Jazz. If Rondo goes, he will not be at 100%, and that swings the advantage to Deron Williams and company.
Brooklyn is off to a 3-1 straight up start on their new home court, and they have gone 2-1-1 against the spread in those four games.
This is as big a game as the Nets can play on their new home court, and with Rondo compromised, and the aging Celtic bodies having to play back-to-backers, look for Brooklyn to be up for ending the three game series slide.
Take the Nets as the small home chalk.
4♦ BROOKLYN
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Over in the North Carolina/Virginia game in Charlottesville, North Carolina.
North Carolina has the 15th-best offense in the nation and 10th best scoring offense in the country. The Tar Heels score 40.5 points per game, and take on a team that just allowed 40 points to Miami, Florida. Now they head to Charlottesville laying points and fully expected to win this game? Yeah, I'd say they're going to force an uptempo game.
Virginia is capable of putting points up on the board, as I've seen the Cavaliers score at least 33 points in four of their 10 games, while they're averaging 24.6. points per game. Not a lot, but what they're proving is they can hang offesively when they need to. And with two games left, and just four wins on the year, they have to win out to become bowl eligible.
So while the Tar Heels will be pushing the tempo tonight, looking to run away from the Cavaliers, you can fully expect the Cavaliers to respond to the challenge with a solid pace of their own.
Look for this one to get into the mid-60s.
3♦ OVER UNC/Virginia
Matt Rivers
New coach Larry Brown guided the Mustangs to an opening night win over Loyola Marymount, but I think this road game against TCU and their new coach Trent Johnson is going to be a bit of a challenge for the Mustangs.
TCU has won their first pair of games under Johnson, allowing just 46.5 points per game thus far, and the Horned Frogs are in "revenge mode" against SMU.
The Mustangs took a 68-62 decision at home against the Horned Frogs last February, but in the overall series it is the Frogs who own a 12-2 spread mark versus the Ponies.
Going to side with TCU as the small home chalk tonight to hand Brown his first loss at the collegiate level since the late 1980's.
2♦ TCU