Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 17

Arizona at St. John's
The Wildcats look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Arizona is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1 1/2)

Game 541-542: Northern Illinois at Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 40.958; Iowa 61.427
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa by 22
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+22)

Game 543-544: Southern Mississippi at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 55.294; Denver 59.304
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2)

Game 545-546: Pacific at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 48.613; Nevada 59.948
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 14
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+14)

Game 547-548: USC at San Diego State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 61.326; San Diego State 66.989
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 6 1/2; 120
Dunkel Pick: USC (+6 1/2); Over

Game 549-550: Temple at Western Michigan (10:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 61.878; Western Michigan 55.610
Dunkel Line: Temple by 6 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Temple by 9; 135
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+9); Under

Game 551-552: Purdue vs. Iona (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 68.498; Iona 61.976
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 7 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Purdue by 3; 141
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-3); Over

Game 553-554: Maryland vs. Alabama (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 60.145; Alabama 69.899
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10; 126
Vegas Line: Alabama by 7 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-7 1/2); Under

Game 555-556: Wichita State vs. Colorado (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 71.244; Colorado 63.342
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 8; 145
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 9; 141
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+9); Over

Game 557-558: Tulsa vs. Western Kentucky (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.597; Western Kentucky 49.611
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 12; 136
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 11; 130
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-11); Over

Game 559-560: LSU vs. Northwestern (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 55.279; Northwestern 61.190
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6; 124
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9; 128
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+9); Under

Game 561-562: VCU vs. Seton Hall (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 63.473; Seton Hall 60.536
Dunkel Line: VCU by 3; 137
Vegas Line: Pick; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU; Over

Game 563-564: Georgia Tech vs. St. Joseph's (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 60.617; St. Joseph's 63.889
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-2)

Game 565-566: Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 63.680; Mississippi State 61.774
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 2; 129
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 567-568: Arizona at St. John's (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 67.981; St. John's 64.935
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 136
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1 1/2); Under

Game 569-570: Pennsylvania at Rider (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 50.923; Rider 55.315
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-3 1/2)

Game 571-572: Fairfield at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 58.623; Minnesota 64.136
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 8; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+8); Over

Game 573-574: Niagara at Missouri (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 44.473; Missouri 70.259
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 26;
Vegas Line: Missouri by 24 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-24 1/2)

Game 575-576: SIU-Edwardsville at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SIU-Edwardsville 37.183; Illinois State 52.601
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 17
Dunkel Pick: SIU-Edwardsville (+17)

Game 577-578: Tennessee-Martin at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 44.308; Arkansas State 55.305
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 11
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-9 1/2)

Game 579-580: Idaho at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.321; Montana 59.520
Dunkel Line: Montana by 5
Vegas Line: Montana by 9
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+9)

Game 581-582: Sacramento State at Washington State (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 44.841; Washington State 62.609
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 18
Vegas Line: Washington State by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+19 1/2)

Game 583-584: Canisius at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.012; UNLV 71.745
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-18 1/2)

Game 585-586: Eastern Washington at Oregon (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 52.400; Oregon 62.515
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 10
Vegas Line: Oregon by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+13 1/2)

NHL

Ottawa at Edmonton
The Senators look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Ottawa is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120)

Game 1-2: Columbus at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 9.953; Boston 13.254
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-235); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-235); Under

Game 3-4: Phoenix at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.288; Philadelphia 11.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150); Over

Game 5-6: Montreal at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.876; NY Islanders 10.275
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-115); Over

Game 7-8: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.587; Tampa Bay 11.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Under

Game 9-10: Florida at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.624; St. Louis 13.082
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over

Game 11-12: Toronto at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.153; Nashville 10.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+145); Under

Game 13-14: Colorado at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.239; Minnesota 10.343
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Under

Game 15-16: Washington at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.105; Winnipeg 11.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+140); Over

Game 17-18: Ottawa at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.534; Edmonton 10.983
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Under

Game 19-20: Los Angeles at Anaheim
(10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.880; Anaheim 11.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-115); Over

Game 21-22: Detroit at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.069; San Jose 11.291
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over

Hollywood Sports

Kings at Ducks
Prediction: Over

These two teams played to a 2-1 final score that Los Angeles (9-6-1-2) pulled out in overtime. We had the Under in that game last night but we expect more scoring in this home-and-home series. Kings' goalie Jonathon Quick outdueled the Ducks' Jonas Hiller in that one but do not be surprised if one or both of the backup goaltenders play in this contest. The Kings have seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games played without rest. The Over is also 2-0-2 in Los Angeles' last 4 road games. And the Kings have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. Anaheim (6-8-1-3) returns home where the Over is a dominant 29-10-3 in their last 42 home games as a small favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Take the Over in this one.

VEGAS EXPERTS

NY Jets at Denver Broncos

This is a pretty low total considering the Jets have gone Over in 13 of their last 15 road games, including a perfect 7-0 if the number if 42.5 or lower. Denver, meanwhile, has gone Over in nine of its previous 11 home matchups and is a perfect 8 for 8 Over the total if they went Under in their previous game. Road teams with a winning record, in the second half of the season, are 35-9 Over the total if they are off a SU loss as a favorite, which the Jets are here.

Play on: Over

Jim Feist

Marshall vs Memphis
Pick: Marshall

Marshall (4-6 SU/6-3-1 ATS) is playing hard for Coach Doc Holliday, 2-2 the last four games with the losses to powerhouses Houston and Tulsa. With only two games left -- and a home game on deck -- they have a shot to avoid a losing season. The offense averages 205.6 yards passing behind freshman QB Rakeem Cato (10 TDs, 7 INTs). The Thundering Herd is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. They face an awful Memphis (2-8 SU/2-7 ATS) squad that is allowing 35.4 ppg and is 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. The Tigers have dropped 18 of 19 C-USA games and 17 of their last 19 overall. And who cares about home field? The road team is 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these teams. Play Marshall!

Jack Clayton

Marshall at Memphis
Play: Marshall

The Tigers have dropped 18 of 19 C-USA games and 17 of their last 19 overall. The Tigers won only 1 game last season and are 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. Marshall has a reliable offense and has been motivated down the stretch. Play Marshall!

BANG THE BOOK

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6, 40.5)

Two teams that are fighting for their playoff lives in the AFC duke it out on the NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football betting action, as the New York Jets take on the Denver Broncos.

The schedule makers really didn’t have much of a heart for the Jets in this one, as they had to play on Sunday Night Football last week, then turn around, fly across the country to take on a team that is starting to form some sort of an identity. This is a potentially bad matchup for the Jets as well, as they are certainly a heck of a lot less proficient against the run (116.0 YPG, No. 15 in the league) than the pass (210.8 YPG, No. 8 in the league). If Denver can keep the ball on the ground on Thursday night, the New York offense is really going to be tested, as it can’t make mistakes. RB LaDainian Tomlinson is out of the lineup, and RB Shonn Greene really hasn’t done anything of tremendous note this year, which puts the onus right on the shoulders of QB Mark Sanchez. 2,081 passing yards with 14 TDs against nine picks isn’t all that great, and we really don’t expect to see all that much out of Sanchez either. His top receiving target is TE Dustin Keller with 473 yards and two scores, though WR Plaxico Burress does have 361 yards and six trips to the end zone.

We always knew that Head Coach John Fox was a smart cookie, but we didn’t really know just how smart he was until last week. Fox threw the ball exactly eight times against the Kansas City Chiefs, and QB Tim Tebow only completed two of those passes, yet it was still good enough to win the game. Miraculously, all of that action on the ground came with both RB Willis McGahee and RB Knowshon Moreno being knocked out of the game in the first quarter. It’s not sounding great for McGahee this week with a hamstring injury in a short week or preparation, and Moreno is now out for the year with an ACL injury. That leaves RB Lance Ball, who toted the rock a whopping 30 times last week to shoulder the load again this week in all likelihood, though WR Eddie Royal was also used as a running back in a pinch as well. The question is what happens if Denver has to play this game from behind instead of ahead. Tebow is only completing 44.8 percent of his passes for 605 yards, and there is a real question what happens if the Jets make him throw it even 20 times on the day.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos Pick: Kansas City is a train wreck in the middle of happening, so we’re not overly surprised at least week’s result. In the end, we trust that Head Coach Rex Ryan will be able to come up with a scheme, even if that means keeping nine in the box to stop this Denver rushing game, and come the second half, things could get really, really ugly for the Broncos.

PICK: Jets -6

BANG THE BOOK

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 61.5)

Conference USA has loaded its schedule up with quite a few mid-week games at the end of this season. Conference USA’s East Division isn’t competitive at this point. Southern Mississippi leads at 5-1, and they are two games ahead of both East Carolina and Marshall. UAB has won just two games this year, but both of them have been inside the conference. The Blazers have actually won two of their last four games after starting 0-6. Can UAB make this one a contest or will the Golden Eagles win in a rout?

Austin Davis is a fourth-year starter at the quarterback spot for the Golden Eagles. Davis knows this offense well, and he does a nice job making decisions with the football. Davis is much more mobile than most people realize, and he has an accurate arm as well. The Golden Eagles have four running backs that have gotten at least 57 carries this year. Jamal Woodyard has emerged as the team’s top rusher, and he averages 6.6 yards per carry. Ryan Balentine and Kevin Bolden both have five touchdown receptions and more than 40 receptions already this year. Southern Miss is strong offensively because they are so balanced. The Golden Eagles are 16th in the nation averaging 36.8 points per game.

Defensively, Southern Mississippi is much better than most Conference USA teams. Most teams in this conference rely on outscoring their opponent, but Southern Miss has a pretty good defense. The front seven is particularly strong against the run. The Golden Eagles allow only 20.5 points per game.

There hasn’t been much go right for UAB this year. The team’s starting quarterback is out for the year with a hand injury. The team’s best runner has been battling nagging injuries all year long. The Blazers have been able to move the ball through the air this year, but they haven’t been able to punch it in the end zone. Jonathan Perry is the new signal caller for the Blazers, and he has been extremely inconsistent. Perry is a mobile quarterback, but he doesn’t always make good decisions with the ball. The Blazers are averaging just 17 points per game on offense.

Things aren’t any better on the defensive end of the field for UAB. The Blazers defense ranks 115th out of 120 teams in the nation in total defense. UAB is allowing 489 yards and 37 points per game so far this year. The secondary often gets beaten deep, and that could be a problem against a solid quarterback like Austin Davis.

Southern Miss is the much better team, but laying this many points on the road is a dangerous proposition. I think the better play here is the under. Look for the Golden Eagles defense to shine in this one.

PICK: Under 61.5

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

The No. 7 Virginia Tech Hokies will host the North Carolina Tar Heels on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football, aiming for a berth in their fourth ACC Championship game in the last five years.

But just a week after making it through one test with a win at Georgia Tech, VT must first sneak by a very dangerous North Carolina team who expect to have quarterback Bryn Renner healthy for Thursday, before taking on ACC Coastal Division rival Virginia next week.

The last time the schools met on a Thursday in Blacksburg, the Tar Heels came away with a 20-17 victory in 2009.

And you can bet if Renner, who after being knocked out in the third quarter of as 13-0 loss at North Carolina State with a concussion last week, makes it into this one, it could be a repeat for the Heels who are desperately looking for a win after losing three of their last four games.

The sophomore quarterback was coming off his first career 300-yard passing performance in a win over Wake Forest when he ran into trouble against the Wolf Pack. North Carolina managed only three rushing yards against NC State and is 72nd in the FBS in rushing average at 144.8 yards.

The Heels totaled just 165 yards of total offense and turned the ball over three times before being shut out for the first time in five years.

Meanwhile, the Hokies who remain a single game ahead of the Cavaliers, who they play next week, controls their own destiny in its pursuit of an ACC championship and the BCS Bowl berth that comes with it.

A win over UNC would put VT in a good position to claim its fourth ACC Championship game in the last five years, and coach Frank Beamer would love to notch his 250th career victory in doing so.

And there is no reason to doubt that they can, as the Hokies has continued to roll along with a mission since suffering their lone loss of the season to Clemson.
Beamer’s offense is running on all cylinders of late, going over 400 total yards in five straight games, and is coming off a strong performance in a 37-26 victory over Georgia Tech.

Quarterback Logan Thomas passed for three touchdowns and ran for another two — the second time this season he has totaled five scores in a game– while David Wilson continued his impressive season totaling 175 rushing yards.

North Carolina is 6-4 this season SU and 4-6 ATS. Virginia Tech is 9-1 SU and 3-7 ATS.

PICK: Virginia Tech

Sean Murphy

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins

The Lightning have split their last eight games, so it's not as if the sky is falling, but there is some reason for concern.

Of Tampa Bay's four wins over that stretch, three have come by way of overtime or shootout, while the other came by a 1-0 score, at home against the lowly Jets no less.

It seems that the Lightning's once-feared offense has run dry lately, as they've scored only four goals over their last three games.

The Penguins don't appear to be an ideal opponent to 'get right' against.

Pittsburgh has won three of its last four games, with its lone loss coming in Carolina last Saturday. In that contest, the Pens outshot the 'Canes 40-26, but an 0-for-5 night on the power play ruined their chances of earning a victory. Note that Pittsburgh has scored on the power play in three of its last four games, and is converting at a 20.5% clip on the PP this season.

The Pens have also been sharp on the penalty kill. They've been the best in the league in that department, operating at 94.2% efficiency on the PK this season. Over their last five games they're a perfect 13-for-13 on the kill.

By contrast, the Lightning have given up PP goals in five of their last six games. Their 81.5% efficiency ranks 18th in the league.

The Lightning ousted the Penguins from the playoffs in the opening round last spring, and you can bet that isn't lost on Dan Bylsma's squad. Look for an inspired effort from the visitors as they begin their two-game Florida trip on Thursday night. Take Pittsburgh (5*).

SPORTS WAGERS

NASHVILLE -½ +100 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs slide into irrelevance continues and until they get rid of Brian Burke and Ron Wilson, nothing will change. The Leafs possess a bunch of third line players, poor defense and shaky goaltending. They put a lot of faith into James Reimer but had no alternative plan should something go wrong. The Maple Leafs have dropped four of five with only win over that span coming against St. Louis in a game they were outshot 40-22. Toronto’s two previous wins came against Columbus and New Jersey and the only reason they won that pair is because Steve Mason and Marty Brodeur couldn’t stop a puck. The Leafs have been outscored 22-8 over their last five games and they’ll face one of the best goalies in the business here in Pekka Rinne. When the Leafs got off to that hot start it was because they played every dreg in the league not once, but twice. Now the Leafs schedule is getting tough and they're also missing a few bodies. Time for some real adversity for Toronto and once again they provide us with a great fade opportunity. Play: Nashville -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

WINNIPEG +150 over Washington

There’s value playing against the Caps because they’re an overpriced team almost every time they play. The Caps have been a power in this league for a long time but this year, despite a good start, they are a highly flawed team that is more beatable than ever. Coach Bruce Boudreau is percolating as we speak and he’s going to lose it at some point. The Caps are just 1-3-1 in their last five. The Jets are very familiar with this foe and will play them six times this season with this being the first game. The building will be electric tonight, as hockey fans get their first chance to see AO in action. The Jets might be the most undervalued team in the league. They’ve lost a bunch of games but yet have some really nice wins over Philly, Tampa and Pittsburgh. There's some front-line talent on this club and they get greatly energized by their fans. The Jets are coming off that nice 5-2 win over the Lightning and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. The bottom line here is value and in a game that’s a complete toss-up, taking back a tag like this is the prudent thing to do. Play: Winnipeg +150 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +109 over EDMONTON

Thus far the Senators are the streakiest team in league and right now they’re warming up again. Ottawa started the year out by losing five of its first six and followed that up with a six-game winning streak. They then lost five in a row before winning its last two and with that modest winning streak on the line, they catch the Oilers in a bad spot. Aside from losing three in a row and four of its last five, Edmonton returns home from a 1-4 road trip. The only win on said trip occurred in Montreal in a game they had no business winning. The Oilers have not been sharp for close to three weeks now and they’ve also allowed 15 goals against over their last three. The Sens are having a lot of fun out there. The reports are they love coming to the rink again and are genuinely enjoying each other. This is a cohesive unit with some high-end talent. Erik Karlsson is on the verge of superstar status. The Sens have a solid collection of youth and vets and once again they’re undervalued in a very favorable situation. Play: Ottawa +109 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Jets –6 over DENVER

This one lines up nicely as the Jets were smoked by nemesis Patriots on Sunday night while Tim Tebow and the Broncos are fresh off a win over the hapless Chiefs. Perfect. The result is a reduced line and one we intend to take full advantage of. Denver may be able to compete with some of the weaker teams around the league. But with Tebow and his extreme inability to pass the football (44.8% completion rate), it is impossible to succeed against any competent teams. Tebow had one of the most incredible lines in NFL history last week as he completed just two passes in eight attempts for 56 yards, in a 17-10 victory. The key was a Kansas City team that couldn’t stop the run as the Broncos racked up 244 yards on the ground. That wouldn't work here under regular circumstances and now that both of Denver’s starting running backs are likely to miss this one, it becomes a near impossible task for Tebow to beat the Jets through the air. Off of last week’s embarrassment and with playoff hopes suddenly an issue, expect the Jets to be all business on this night. Play: N.Y. Jets –6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Purdue/ Iona Over 140.5: Last year the Gaels were 14th in the nation in scoring (79 ppg) and while they did lose some key pieces from that team, they may be a better overall team this year. Tim Cluess came in last year and implemented an up an down style for Iona and they responded by averaging 13 ppg more than 2009. Now this senior laden team has had a year under this new system so they should at least equal last years output. The Purdue offense may struggle a bit in the early going after losing two players to the Boston Celtics, but they have averaged 81.5 ppg in their first 2 games and Tim Cluess' system also allows points, as the Gaels dropped from 38th (62 ppg) in scoring defense in 2009 to 223rd (69.7 ppg) last last year. Purdue usually plays good defense and they have allowed just 49.5 ppg so far, but they have not played an offene this good yet. I look for around 150 in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Northwestern/ LSU Under 128: The Cats really like the slow down defensive battles and it showed in their opener vs Texas Pan Am as just 96 total points were scored. LSU had a couple high scoring games and they have scored 79.5 ppg in their first two games, but this is not a high scoring team and that is not their style of play. I feel the Cats will dictate pace in this one and we wont see more than 120 points.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie comes in college hoops, as I take the points with the Trojans of Southern Cal as they visit the Aztecs of San Diego State.

Steve Fisher's team is already off to a 3-1 start, but their last game came on Tuesday afternoon at Baylor, and that was a loss. Quick turnaround here - even if the Aztecs are at home - and I think the early season fatigue is going to preclude San Diego State from covering this impost.

Remember, this is NOT the same San Diego State team that went deep into March last season, as Leonard, Thomas, Gay, and White have all departed. Just too much transition for Diego to contend with against a decent Kevin O'Neill coached Trojans team.

USC has split their first two games, and are off a hard overtime loss to Nebraska at home. With one of the best returning backcourts in the Pac 12, look for the Trojans to make this a close game tonight down I-5.

Take the points.

3♦ USC

MATT RIVERS

Your Thursday comp play is the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points at Memphis.

On the surface, this may seem like a lot of points, but consider that Marshall is in need of a pair of wins to close the season out in order to become bowl-eligible, and their opponent just blew a 35-17 4th quarter lead at home against UAB last weekend.

Yep, lowly Memphis somehow found a way to choke a 35-17 lead last week in a 41-35 collapse to the Blazers. The loss dropped the Tigers to 2-8 straight up this season, and 2-7 against the spread in their line games. Memphis is now 3-12 against the spread at the Liberty Bowl versus FBS teams since the '09 campaign.

Marshall has won both games this year in which they were favored straight up, and are fresh off a 59-14 win and cover over the same UAB team that dropped Memphis last week.

With a game against East Carolina still on-deck, look for the Thundering Herd to keep their business in focus tonight, as they roll to a big road win and cover.

Lay the road wood.

1♦ MARSHALL

Dom Chambers

For my free selection, let’s take a look at Virginia Tech to cover against North Carolina.

The Hokies have been on a roll, winning their last five games. North Carolina, on the other hand, has lost three of its last four games. They have not covered any of those losses.

Virginia Tech is led by quarterback Logan Thomas, who is three rushing touchdowns away from breaking a school record for quarterbacks. In their five-game winning streak, the offense has kicked it in gear, gaining more than 400 total yards each game.

As good as the offense has been, the defense has also stepped it up. In the Hokies last four games, the defense has allowed 16.8 points a game and 314.5 total yards.

The combination of a good offense and tough defense will be too much for North Carolina.

The Tar Heels are coming off a bye week. On Nov. 5, they lost to North Carolina State, 13-0. North Carolina quarterback Bryn Renner suffered a mild concussion against North Carolina State. But the week off has helped him. He has been sacked 14 times in the last five games. Virginia Tech will be adding to that number today.

Virginia Tech has its eyes on winning the ACC title. With a win and a loss by Virginia, the Hokies could clinch this week. They will take care of their end of it tonight.

3♦ VIRGINIA TECH