David Banks
North Carolina / Virginia Tech Under
For the second week in a row, the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1, 3-7 ATS) will play under the Thursday Night Lights on ESPN when they welcome the division rival North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4, 4-6 ATS) into Blacksburg; kick-off from Lane Stadium is set to go live at 8:00 ET on ESPN, ESPN 3D and ESPN3.com.
It couldn’t have been pleasant being a member of the UNC football team who got shutout by the NC State Wolfpack for the first time since the 1960’s the last time they took to the gridiron. After pounding the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 49-24 as seven-point favorites in the Universities Homecoming game the week before, it came as quite the surprise to see UNC struggle throughout the game’s entirety managing just 13 first downs and 165 yards of total offense against a stop unit giving up an average of over 350 YPG heading into Week 12. Head Coach Everett Withers will have QB Bryn Renner back in the mix this week after he was sidelined during the game with a concussion vs. the Wolfpack, but the sophomore will be forced to navigate the offense against the nation’s 9th ranked scoring defense that’s allowed an average of just 16.5 PPG. North Carolina is 1-3 SU & ATS away from Chapel Hill to date, but has covered each of its L/2 as road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points.
Virginia Tech has gone on to play in the ACC Championship Game three of the last four years, and if it can tame both North Carolina and Virginia over the next two weeks, Head Coach Frank Beamer’s kids will once again represent the Coastal Division in the big game. The Hokies took one step closer towards sealing the division up last week when they went into Bobby Dodd Stadium and pulled away in the 4th quarter to secure the 37-26 road win and cover over GTECH as short two-point favorites. The win was the team’s fifth in a row since falling at home to Clemson back in Week 5. They’ll have to hit the road again next week to possibly battle Virginia for divisional honors, but up first is a North Carolina squad that defeated them at the closing gun the last time they paid a visit to Blacksburg. VTECH owns home scalps of Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Miami, and Boston College, but it failed to cover the closing pointspread in three of those match-ups making it 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS as a host entering its 2011 home finale.
The road team has won and covered each of these division rivals L/3 meetings with the ‘under’ cashing in each contest. The Tar Heels are 18-7-1 ATS the L/26 times the offense failed to generate 275 yards or more the previous game, but they’ve also failed to cover each of their L/4 November tussles and put forth just 1-3 SU & ATS records after their L/4 byes. VTECH is a perfect 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS its L/9 November gridiron battles, but came up short in covering each of the L/5 times it went off the board a chalk of 10.5-points or more.
Matt Fargo
Georgia Tech vs. St. Josephs
Play: St. Josephs -2
Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's tip off in the final game of the Charleston Classic tonight. After another disappointing season last year, head coach Paul Hewitt was fired and Dayton head coach Brian Gregory was brought over to try and resurrect a program that has gone downhill fast. It is not an easy situation for Gregory as the cupboard is pretty bare with the departures of Iman Shumpert, who led the team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals, and Brian Oliver, another double-digit scorer.
The Yellow Jackets have only eight scholarship players and the best of the bunch, Glen Rice, Jr., is out due to a suspension for violating team rules but after this game, his suspension will be served. Now Georgia Tech will face its first test as it enters this game 2-0 following two very easy victories to open the season but those came against Florida A&M and Delaware St. so nothing too significant can come from those. Now it hits the road for the first time.
Things are just the opposite in Philadelphia where St. Joseph's is on the upswing following two straight 20-loss seasons. While dropping 20 games just a year ago would not seem to provide much momentum or confidence for the future, that is exactly the case here. They were the youngest team in head coach Phil Martelli's 17 years a season ago and that means expereience this year. The Hawks closed last season with four wins in their last six games and opened this season with a road win at Western Kentucky.
St. Joseph's played that game against the Hilltoppers last Friday but were able to sneak in an exhibition game this past Monday to keep fresh. The Yellow Jackets shot 53.9 percent and 52.7 percent in its first two games but that that means a bounce in the wrong way as it is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after shooting 50 percent from the floor or better in two or more consecutive games. The Hawks meanwhile are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a win dating back to last season. 3* St. Joseph Hawks
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Southern Miss -23
After getting a major scare by Central Florida Saturday, expect Southern Miss to take the field with a renewed sense of focus tonight. Motivation certainly won't be an issue for the Golden Eagles, who have been upset by UAB each of the last two seasons. So. Miss is the far superior team in this matchup, and I fully expect that to be evident on the field. When you see a team laying this many points this late in the season, there's usually good reason. Consider that plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in November games, are 49-17 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have won by an average of 34.8 points. This system is 1-0 ATS this season and 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. In addition, plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins are 44-15 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average score of 47.6 to 13.4. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and 14-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.
Steve Janus
Virginia Tech -10
With a win tonight the Hokies can clinch the ACC Coastal and return to the ACC Championship Game where they will more than likely get a chance to get revenge on Clemson, who is the only team to beat them all season. Early money on North Carolina has bet this line down to the point where Virginia Tech should easily cover.
This is the time of year where the Hokies play their best football, and 2011 has been no different. Virginia Tech has won five straight since that horrible loss to Clemson, and I expect maximum effort in front of a rowdy home crowd tonight.
While Virginia Tech has the ability to throw the ball with sophomore Logan Wilson, their strength is pounding the football behind their talented offensive line. Junior running back David Wilson leads the nation with 1,360 yards. The Tar Heels defense is holding opponents to just 108.3 ypg on the ground, but that number gets inflated to 186 when they play on the road inside the ACC.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech's defense just went on the road and really stepped up against a good Georgia Tech offense, holding them 339 total yards on the road. With the home crowd at their back and the ACC title on the line, I expect a huge game from the Hokies stop unit against a North Carolina offense that was shutout in their last game at NC State.
Virginia Tech is 41-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games in November, and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 Thursday games. BET THE HOKIES -10!
Larry Ness
Denver -3
Larry Eustachy enters his ninth season as head coach of Southern Miss with a record of 118-104 during his stay in Hattiesburg. Eustachy led the Golden Eagles to a 22-10 record in 2010-2011. However, he loses the 6-8 Horton (18.8-7.7) and guard Horton (12.9), the team's lone double-digit scorers from last year's team. There are six new faces on this year's team (something Southern Miss fans have gotten used to) and the Eagles opened with 76-41 over Spring Hill (NAIA team), as five players scored in double figures. The 6-10 Bolden (15 & 8) led the way with JUCO transfer guard McGill scoring 13 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Senior guard Pelham had 10 points and seven rebounds. Southern Mississippi begins a five-game road trip with a non- conference game tonight with Denver at Magness Arena. Denver is off to a 2-0 start in 2011-2012 after winning just 13 games all of last season (opened 2-9). Head coach Joe Scott is in his fifth season at the helm of the Denver program and it's about time something happens. Maybe it will be this season, as all five starters return. Guard Stafford has averaged 28.5 PPG in the team's two wins (69-61 home win over Portland State and a 65-58 road victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), while 6-6 forward Udofia is the only other double-digit scorer (13.5-4.5). Denver has shown a lot of improvement in the early going this year and will give its C-USA opponent all it can handle in this one. Denver is a tough 'out' at home and I'm playing the Pioneers in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Jets/ Denver Under 40: As if there was any mystery to this play. Last week I had a big play on the Over in the Denver/ KC game, but the new Denver offense thwarted that as they came out and ran the ball for 55 times, while throwing just 8 times. That's a lot of plays with no clock stoppages. I expect the Broncos to run the same kind offense here, as it was very effective last week. The Jets are 8th overall in defense, allowing (326.8 ypg), but they can be run on a bit as they have allowed 116 ypg on the ground, which is 15th in the league. Tebow is not a great passer and I can't see the Denver staff having him throw much vs this vaunted Jets secondary. On offense the Jets have gotten poor QB play from Sanchez and they would like to get back to the grind it out offense that has worked so well for them over the years. The Denver defense has been pretty weak all around, but they Jets don't possess enough quick score offense for them to put up a ton of points. The OU is 1-4 in the Jets last 5 Thursday night games and with both teams running more than throwing, i just cant see how this game hits 40 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
UAB/ Southern Miss Under 61: I really think 61 points is too high when oone team has a defense that allows just 20.5 ppg (34th) and the other team has an ofense that puts up just 17.3 ppg. Yes these teams put up 99 points last year, but 29 of mthose points was in OT and UAB had a much better offense than they do this year. the Blazers are just 91st in totall offense (356 ypg) and they are 97th in rushing. Last week they did put up 41 points vs a weak Memphis defense, but they still come in averaging just 21 ppg in Conf USA games, while Southern Miss has allowed just 20.5 ppg in their conferrence games. The Blazer defense has been hporrible this year at 115th overall and they have alowed 37.7 ppg, but there have been a few games this year when UAB was able to play solid defense and keep the scoring down and they should be able to do it here vs a Southern Miss squad that works it way down the field rather than posting alot of big plays. Southern Miss will have to get the bulk of the points for this one to go over the total. I expect them to post about 42 points and their is NO WAY this UAB squad hits the 20 point mark vs this tough defense. Mid to low 50's at best.
Virginia Tech/ North Carolina Under 48.5: I know. No surprise here. I just see this as a low scoring defensive battle and history has shown just that. In each of their previous 7 meetings not one of those games have posted more than 45 points and in each of the last 4 meetings just 35.4 ppg have been scored, with not one of those games posting more than 37 points. The Tarheels have played some good defense this year as they rankd 41st overall (356 ypg) and they are 47th in points allowed (23.7 ppg). The Heels have struggled vs the pass, but the Hokies are more of a running team and Carolina is 18th vs the run allowing just 108.3 ypg. The Hokies are 26th in the nation in rushing (206 ypg), but just 69th in passing (225 ypg) and thay are not really a big play offense, as they work their way down field with time consuming drives. The Carolina offense has been decent this year, but they were shutout last week and put up just 10 points vs a nother good defense (Louisville) earlier in the year. This offense can be stopped and VA Tech's defense has the ablity to do it. The Hokies come in ranked 11th overalll (302. 5 ypg) and 9th in points allowed (16.5 ppg) and they have allowed just 16.8 ppg in their last 4 games overall and 18.4 ppg at home. This defense has been getting better as the season has gone on and should be able to slow down Carolina tonight. The OU is 3-13 in the Hokies last 16 games on Thursday night and the last time these teams met here on Thursday night just 37 points were scored. That's about what I see tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Marshall -11.5 over MEMPHIS: Memphis is just 1-4 ATS at home this year and have been outscored by 18.8 ppg in those games. They nearly won last week vs UAB, but earlier in the year Marshall crushed UAB by a 59-14 count. The Herd just has too much for the Tigers in this one.
WUNDERDOG
Georgia Tech at St. Joseph's
Pick: Georgia Tech +2
The Yellow Jackets return 10 players from last season's roster, six of which played significant minutes. New Georgia Tech basketball coach Brian Gregory has stepped up the intensity level, a change from former coach Paul Hewitt, who was known for his laid-back style. The new coach seems determined to bring a new fire to this struggling program and it's paid off early with two blowout wins, led by 6-8 soph Kammeon Holsey and guard Dan Miller. The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. Georgia Tech has played two games and one was 3 days ago; St. Joe's, on the other hand, has played only one game and has had 5 full days off. They will not be in mid-season form for this one and should be a bit rusty. All of which gives the dog several edges. Play Georgia Tech.
Dave Price
1 Unit Marshall -11.5
The Tigers are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. They are also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 10.5 points or more. We'll lay the points.
Rocketman
LSU @ Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -8.5
LSU is coming off a loss at Coastal Carolina, WOW! Northwestern is 6-0 ATS last 3 years in all neutral court games. Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Tigers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on Northwestern today!
Freddy Wills
Seton Hall vs. Virginia Commonwealth
Play: Virginia Commonwealth -2
VCU got to the final four last year and they did lose quite a bit, but they have enough back and enough new additions to compete in the CAA. I think Seton Hall, a team that would have been beat for sure by VCU lost more in Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson their top 2 scorers. Seton Hall is very inexperienced and will rely on a lot of youngsters. I think VCU has enough experience to get a win on neutral court where Seton Hall is 6-21 in their last 27 ATS on neutral courts.
Jack Jones
UAB +23.5
The UAB Blazers are certainly not having a good season. But as a result, this line has been inflated Thursday and I'll take advantage. Southern Miss is a quality team at 9-1, but they have simply been taking advantage of an easy schedule set before them.
UAB has 16 starters back from a team that went into Southern Miss and came away with a 50-49 overtime victory last season as a 10.5-point underdog. The Blazers also beat the Eagles 30-17 at home in 2009 as a 10.5-point dog as well. Seven of the 11 meetings in this series have been decided by seven points or less.
The Blazers are coming off a 41-35 victory at Memphis in which they racked up a season-high 601 total yards. Quarterback Jonathan Perry threw for a career-high 410 yards and four touchdowns to lead UAB to victory. Also, freshman receiver Jamarcus Nelson has six grabs for 133 yards and two touchdowns.
UAB is outscoring opponents by 16.3 points/game while UAB is getting outscored by 19.9 points/game this season. Given those numbers alone, you can see that there is some line value here. This is Senior Night for the Blazers and this is essentially their "national championship" since they cannot make a bowl game. There's no question they will be motivated when they hit the field tonight.
UAB is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. teams who outscored their opponents by 10+ points/game. Southern Miss is 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Bet UAB Thursday.
Hollywood Sports
Arizona at St. Johns
Prediction: St. Johns
Arizona (3-0) is learning to live life without their star forward Derrick Williams who carried them to the Elite Eight in the Big Dance last season. It did not help Sean Miller's team that incumbent point guard Momo Jones transferred to Iona. The Wildcats need to find a go-to scorer to replace Williams' presence on the floor and it may come from their top-rated Pac-12 recruiting class. But it will take these non-conference games to end the calendar year to answer those questions. Arizona has failed to cover the spread in 8 straight games as a favorite. St. John's (3-0) graduated ten seniors themselves but head coach Steve Lavin has brought in seven new players comprised of transfer students and incoming freshman who almost all are considered to possess top-tier talent. The Red Storm come off a dominant 82-59 win over Maryland-Baltimore -- and they have covered 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. St. John's has covered 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. And in their last 5 games against Pac-12/10 competition, the Red Storm have covered 4 of these games. Look for them to win outright. Take St. John's plus the points.
NHL Predictions
Minnesota Wild -125
The Avalanche have dropped 8 of their last 10 games, while Minnesota has won 7 of their last 9 games. After a great start to the season on the road Colorado has now lost 4 straight road games coming into tonight. Minnesota is 5-2-1 at home this season, and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Colorado turns to it’s backup JS Giguere in hopes of a win tonight. Giguere is 3-1 with a 2.18 GAA and .920 SV%. The Wild haven’t confirmed their starting goalie for tonight, but both Backstrom and Harding have excellent numbers at a 2.13 GAA and 1.78 GAA respectively. Minnesota has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams, and 6 of 8 against the Avalanche at home. Note that the Wild are coming home after a road trip, but are 11-4 in their last 15 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. These two teams are heading in different directions right now, and I like the Wild to win.
Phoenix Coyotes +160
The Coyotes have won 5 straight road games, putting them an impressive 5-1-1 on the road this season. Overall Phoenix is 9-4-3. The Flyers have won 5 of their last 7 games and are 10-4-3 on the year. The storyline in this game is Ilya Bryzgalov facing his former team for the first time since signing with Philadelphia in the off season. Ilya has had a rough start to the year with a 7-4-2 record, 2.78 GAA and .899 SV%. On the other side of things Mike Smith has enjoyed the starting role for the Coyotes, going 8-2-3 with a 2.19 GAA and .933 SV%. He hasn’t lost in regulation in his last 9 starts going 7-0-2. Note that the Coyotes are 7-2 in their last 9 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 6-2 in their last 8 overall. The Flyers are just 3-7 in their last 10 home as a big home favorite between -151 and -200, and are also just 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win. Phoenix has taken 4 of these two teams last 5 meetings, and I see no reason why they can’t win tonight. Take Phoenix as a nice size underdog tonight.
Boston Bruins -1.5 +130
The Blue Jackets enter tonight with a NHL’s worst 3-13-1 record, and have yet to win a game on the road (0-7). The Bruins are 9-7 on the year and 7-5 at home. After a bit of a slow start the Bruins have won 6 straight games, scoring 34 goals over those 6 games (5.66 per game). The Blue Jackets are giving up 3.71 goals against per game, and 5 goals against per game on the road. The Blue Jackets got a bit of spark from the return of Jeff Carter in their last game outshooting the Wild 45-23, but still lost 4-2. Steve Mason has a 3.63 GAA and .875 SV%. Take note that on the Bruins 6 game winning streak they have won by 2 or more goals in 5 of the 6 games. I see no reason that the Bruins don’t continue their scoring on maybe the leagues worst goaltender right now, and the Bruins shouldn’t have much problems controlling the Blue Jackets offense. Take Boston to win by 2 or more tonight with generous odds.
Montreal Canadiens +104
Montreal comes off a 4-0 win against Carolina last night, improving them to 8-7-3 on the season. They are 5-3 on the road. The Islanders have gone through a lot of struggles, and are just 4-8-3 on the season (4-4-1 at home). The Islanders have won just once in their last 11 games. Montreal is 7-3 in their last 10 games, and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. In net for the Canadiens will be Peter Budaj who is 1-1 on the season with a 1.48 GAA and .947 SV%. Budaj has already led the Canadiens to a big underdog win in Nashville on November 12th. Evgeni Nabokov looks for his second win of the season as he is just 1-5 on the year with a 2.89 GAA and .910 SV%. Take note that the Canadiens are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in New York, and 12-5 in their lat 17 meetings overall. Montreal has been the much better team lately, and are only getting the underdog price because of Budaj in net who has been solid in his two starts. I’m on Montreal tonight.