Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 18,2010

Marc Lawrence

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

When the Nuggets meet the Trailblazers in Portland Thursday night on TNT they will take the court knowing that Denver has met with a good share of success lately in this series, going 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS the last 13 games. In addition, the Blazers are on a 0-4 SU and ATS losing slide on Thursdays of late. With that, look for the underdog to improve to 9-3 ATS in Nuggets' games this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

MTi Sports

LA Clippers at Indiana
Play on: Indiana

The Pacers are 10-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) after a loss in which Mike Dunleavy took fewer than 10 shots and 7-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) at home after a loss in which Danny Granger was the Pacers' high scorer. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS as a 5+ point road dog after a loss in which Eric Gordon was their high scorer, including two big losses this season. As a team, Indiana is 7-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. Lay the points. Good luck -

VEGAS EXPERTS

Bears at Dolphins
Play on: Under

The NFL's second edition of Thursday Night Football figures to be a low scoring affair. Miami is down to its third string QB (Tyler Thigpen), who gets to face a nasty Bears defense that forced four turnovers last week vs. Minnesota. Chicago is allowing only 15.5 PPG and 89 YPG overland on the road this year while Miami is averaging just 19 PPG on the season. The Bears have gone Under in three straight games overall (and 5 of L6) and have gone Under in 12 of the last 14 games they were underdogs.

DAVID CHAN

UCLA @ Washington
PICK: UCLA +2.5

It has been a season to forget for the Washington Huskies and Jake Locker.

Locker missed Washington's last game, a 53-16 road loss to Oregon, because of a broken rib. Locker is expected to play in this matchup but how effective he will be remains in question.

Locker has completed 56 percent of his passes and has a 14-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio. These are decent numbers, but fall well short of what was expected of him before the season when he was considered a strong Heisman candidate and the player most likely to be selected as the No. 1 overall draft pick in the 2011 draft. Locker doesn't even rate among the top 60 passers in the country statistically.

The Huskies need Locker to put up points because they have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 109th in points allowed giving up 36.2 per game and are 110th in total defense yielding 440 yards a game. They have the third-worst rush defense in the nation.

UCLA is going to be able to pound the Huskies' soft underbelly with Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman.

The Bruins have won the past three times the teams have met. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. UCLA, in fact, has won 11 of the last 13 times in the series.

I do think the Huskies will put forth a good effort. Their crumbling defense just can't stop anybody having surrendered an average of 43 points during their past four games.

Washington hasn't been very good either at Husky Stadium going 18-39-2 ATS in its last 59 home contests.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -8½

Reason: The Clippers, as usual, have been a disaster, with injuries and no defense, giving up 104 ppg. Point guard Randy Foye has been out for nearly three weeks with an injured left hamstring. He may be back this weekend, but not this game. They are a long way from home and this is a terrible situational handicapping spot for the Clippers, playing their 6th road game over the last 8 games. They are also in the second of a back to back road spot after playing at Minnesota last night, while Indiana is rested. Play the Pacers.

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI –1½ over Chicago

Lots to like about the Fish here. First, they’re being forced to go with its third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Normally turning to your third-stringer is a big deterrent for most and it’s one of the reasons this line is so cheap. Thing is, Tyler Thigpen could be a #1 QB on quite a few teams in this league. You may or may not remember him when he was the pivot for a brutal Chiefs team two seasons ago. At that time the Chiefs were losing a ton of games and attracted very little attention so Thigpen flew under the radar. They weren’t losing because of him and in fact, he was the only reason they were in a few games. Thigpen is experienced, he’s talented and a door just opened up for him. For Miami, this could truly be a blessing in disguise. Thigpen threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns in ‘08, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. He’s just 26-years-old and has been patiently waiting in the wings. He came in last week and went 4-6 with 64 yards and one TD. The Bears come in here with an impressive 6-3 mark. They opened the year 3-0 with three lucky wins over Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas. They went on to lose three of its next four to the Giants, Seattle and Washington and in between picked up a win over Carolina. Then came the bye week followed by wins over Buffalo and a dysfunctional Vikes squad. Truth be told, the Bears are an ugly 6-3 and aside from its very fortunate win over Green Bay, they have zero wins against winning teams. They’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and again, they already have losses to Washington and Seattle, the latter at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off a big win over rival Vikings and will now travel on short rest, which is a huge disadvantage. Under the best of conditions, Chicago would be in tough here but this is anything but. This Bears team is not even close to being a true 6-3 team. They’re imposters to the highest degree and with seven games left against Miami, Philly, in Detroit, New England, in Minnesota, Jets and in Green Bay, they may not win another game this season and its string of playing and beating lousy opponents ends here. Play: Miami -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Evan Altemus

Richmond +5

Richmond is going to be a very dangerous team in March during the NCAA tournament. The showed their potential last year by making a deep run in the A-10 tournament before losing to Temple. The Spiders played St. Mary's very tough last season in the NCAA tournament 1st round before Omar Samhan took over. However, Richmond returns every single player on their roster from last year, minus two starters. However, the Spiders are even more balanced scoring now, and the other starters are complementing star player Kevin Anderson even better. Head coach Chris Mooney is one of the best young coaches in the country as well, and he has gotten some very talented recruits into the program as well. Richmond has absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, and Iona will be no match for them either. The Gaels are 0-3 to start the season, but none of their opponents are anywhere near as good as Richmond is. Iona meanwhile returns several players from last year's team, but they are still very young and dealing with a new coach. The team greatly improved last year, but last year's head coach Kevin Williard is now at Seton Hall. There is also a huge talent gap between players from the MAAC and Atlantic 10. Richmond doesn't have any big game looming either, and I expect them to come out strong and continue their dominant play in their first road game. Look for Richmond to get a blowout win.

James Patrick Sports

Suns vs. Magic

This is 4th game in five nights for Phoenix, as Suns are in a murderous portion of their schedule. Phoenix has faced the Lakers, Denver and Miami before arriving in Orlando for this game, and Suns don’t appear to own the depth or frontline power to keep Magic C Dwight Howard from cleaning up inside with the knee injury to center Lopez. Phoenix defense has been atrocious the last few weeks, as the Suns allowed (114) ppg in last 5 through Nov. 11, as lack of inside deterrent is proving a problem for HC Gentry’s defense. Big game James Patrick's Thursday NBA complimentary selection is Orlando Magic.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +1.23 over Toronto

The Leafs snapped an ugly funk with an unlikely win over the Preds and it was unlikely because they were down 3-0 very early and 4-1 about five minutes into the second period. It seemed impossible for them to come back but a string of bizarre events followed that allowed them to do just that. What occurred in the second period of that game you will not see for another 50 years. With the crowd silent and the Leafs looking like they wanted to run and hide, the refs called a penalty. They then called another one and another one and another one and another one and another one…all on the Preds. That gave the Leafs three, 5 on 3 power-plays in a row and they connected four times on the power play in the second period. What you won’t see again in 50 years is four PP goals in one period or three successive 5 on 3 PP’s. The Leafs scoring four goals in one period is the other very rare occurrence. So, the Maple Leafs have now won twice in its last 11 games and both wins were courtesy of the refs. The other one was when the Leafs scored the go-ahead goal late in the third when offensive star Colton Orr barreled into the goaltender. It was perhaps the most blatant goaltender interference ever that was not called. So, what we have here is a Leafs squad that should be a 0-11 run favored over a Devils squad that is as hungry as any team in the league for a win. Fact is, the Devils are the superior team here that is off to a bad start but unlike the Leafs, they’ll go a big run at some point. The Leafs have a game in Montreal on Saturday night and while this host can’t afford to look ahead to anything, coach Ron Wilson is absolutely more concerned about not being embarrassed on Saturday night than he is about this game. Devils plus a tag against the Leafs is about as good as it gets. Play: New Jersey +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

DALLAS -½ +1.42 over San Jose

The Sharkies are a damn good team. Make no mistake, this team is loaded with offense, they have quality defenseman and its only real flaw is goaltending. When you badly outplay the opposition and your goalie seldom comes up with a big save, it takes the steam out of a squad and that’s precisely what has occurred this season with the Sharks. They were completely dominating the Av’s last night in Colorado and were up 4-1 late in the second period. The Sharkies outshot the Av’s 15-3 in the second and 15-8 in the third, yet they remarkably lost the game because Nittymaki couldn’t stop anything. That was a demoralizing loss and now the Sharkies will play its third game in four nights, its fifth game in seven nights and the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in the high altitude of Colorado last night. Ouch. Nittymaki stopped 18 of 22 shots on net yesterday while Peter Budaj stopped 40 of 43. Expect to see Niemi in net tonight under difficult circumstances and he’s not the answer. The Stars are 6-3 at home and they’ve been getting great goaltending from Kari Lehtonen. They’re well rested and they’re in a very favorable spot here. This has always been a difficult venue for San Jose and in fact, its last two visits here resulted in 5-1 and 8-2 defeats and that was under much better conditions than they’re facing here. Playing against a demoralized Sharks squad running strictly on fumes is a recipe for cashing a ticket. Play: Dallas -½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

Frank Jordan

Air Force vs. UNLV
Play: Air Force -19.5

Air Force is having a good year and is eyeing up a decent bowl game as they are 7-4 on the year and 4-3 in MWC play. UNLV is having another down year with a 2-8 record, but those two wins have come in conference play however so have four of the eight losses. Air Force has won back to back games and scored over 40 points in each game. UNLV snapped a 5 game losing streak by beating the only team worse then them in Wyoming. Look for Air Force to fly past UNLV like they were standing still and win their 8th game of the year.

Sean Higgs

Air Force vs. UNLV
Play: Air Force -19.5

Tough to back UNLV here as they bring the 113th rated rush defense into the battle. AF is #2 in the nation rushing the ball. UNLV has beaten Wyoming and New Mexico here at home, but will need a miracle to win this one, and even to get the cover. AF is wrapping up another bowl season, while the Rebels limp to the finish line. Let's back AF here to end their regular season with a blow-out here. With only a bowl-game remaining, look for the Falcons to not ease up as they won't be able to have those 'game situations' to run their plays. AF gets it done in a big way here.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -8

This is a tough spot for the 1-11 Clippers, who went down at Minnesota last night in an emotionally and physically draining game. Darren Collison isn't expected to go for Indiana, but the Pacers still have plenty of firepower to cover this number. The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 0 days' rest, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the Pacers.

Tom Freese

Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Phoenix Suns

NBA Double digit favorites are just 4-16 ATS this year. Orlando is in that role tonight. The Magic are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. Orlando is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. The Magic are 1-6 ATS off a straight up win. Orlando is 1-6 ATS off a straight up win. Orlando is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 0-5 ATS of straight up win by more than 10 points. Phoenix is 6-5 straight up this year The Suns are 42-21-1 ATS their last 62 games overall and they are 11-3 ATS their last 14 games off an ATS loss. Nash and company are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Thursday games.

John Ryan

Lightning vs. Flyers
Play: Under 5.5

Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than five goals will be scored in this game. Philadelphia has been red hot start the first portion of the NHL season, but they were abruptly stooped by Montreal losing 3-0 in their last game. Philadelphia is 41-28 UNDER in home games when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay has done a great job killing penalties allowing only nine goals in 78 short handed situations for an 11.8% power play killing percentage. This is critical when facing the Flyers, who have scored on 20% of their power play opportunities. Moreover, Philadelphia does not get a lot of power play opportunities so look for this game to be played between the blue lines and with both teams focused on the defensive side of things. Take the ‘UNDER’.