Jeff Alexander
1 unit on LA Clippers +9
I know the Clippers just played last night, but I definitely don't trust Indiana laying this many points. The Pacers have only been favored 4 times this season, and never by more than 5.5 points. With Darren Collison not expected to go, I think odds makers are asking too much of the Pacers tonight. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the points.
EZWINNERS
Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5
llinois returns all five of their starters from last years team that went to the quarterfinals of the NIT and they are poised to make a return to the Big Dance this year. Texas has changed their offense and is playing a much different style than they have in the past. The Horns had success in their warm up games this season, but I expect that offense to struggle a bit against the defense of the Illini. Illinois has been shooting well from the perimeter and I look for that to continue tonight. The Illini are shooting 54.4 percent from the field and guards Demetri McCamey, Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson are a combined 18 for 38 (47.4) from three point land. Illinois was 10-1 last season when they shot 40 percent or better from three point land and I expect a good shooting night for them in the Garden. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5
Reasons the Clippers cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (INDIANA) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (<=25%). This is a 56-23 ATS System hitting 70.9% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Clippers on the road.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on UNLV Rebels +19.5
Air Force may have defeated UNLV 45-17 last season, but that game came at home. Air Force hasn't had nearly as much luck in Vegas. In its last trip to UNLV, Air Force barely escaped with a 1-point win. In 2006, as a 10-point favorite, Air Force was upset at UNLV. In fact, Air Force hasn't won by more than 17 points at UNLV since 1998.
This is a good spot for the Rebels, who are playing their final home game. With no bowl in the cards, UNLV will treat this game as such. Plus, plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in a conference game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, are 73-30 ATS the last 10 seasons. This situation has already produced a 7-2 ATS record this season. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by 11.8 points on average. Take the Rebs.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -9.5
The Phoenix Suns are in another tough spot tonight. I faded them yesterday and took Miami -7.5 as a free pick knowing that the Suns were coming into the contest playing their 4th game in 6 days. Now, Phoenix will be playing their 5th game in 7 days tonight. This brutal stretch has the Suns fatigued, and it certainly showed last night in their 96-123 loss to the Heat.
Now Phoenix has to faced a well-rested Orlando team that is playing on 2 days' rest and only their 2nd game in 5 days. There's no way the Suns will be able to match the effort they get from the Magic, and as a result I see Orlando winning this game by double-digits with ease. Orlando is 5-2 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 13.3 PPG. The Magic are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last 2 home meetings with Phoenix, beating the Suns by 22 points and 12 points, respectively. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet Orlando Thursday.
Hollywood Sports
Illinois at Texas
Play: Illinois
The Illini (3-0) return all five starters from a 21-15 team that qualified for the NIT. With a strong incoming recruiting class, they should go to the Big Dance this season. Texas (2-0) will likely return to the NCAA Tournament as well but they will experience some growing pains along the way. They will be counting on 5-star incoming freshman Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph to fill the void from losing three starters from last season. The loss of Dexter Pittman and Damion Jones will hurt early in the season as the Longhorns do not have obvious answers for what they did inside and on the boards. Texas has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games and their first game away from home is not a good place to reverse these trends. Lay the points with Illinois.
Joel Tyson
Chicago at MIAMI
Another NFL free play total winner for you. On Monday I gave you the Eagles-Redskins over the total, and they only wound up going over by about 100 points!
I actually like the under this Thursday night in Miami, as I feel we have 2 teams that stress defense first, and the fact both are playing on very short weeks I feel favors the defense.
Chicago is 6-2-1 under the total this year, and since Jay Cutler arrived, the Bears are an overall 16-8-1 under the total in 25 games.
The Bears defense is allowing just 16 points per game, and they do get to face Miami's 3rd string quarterback in Tyler Thigpen tonight.
Miami has twice allowed massive points to be scored on them in their 2 previous primetime games - 31 against the Jets, 41 against the Patriots.
Look for the Dolphins "D" to man-up and turn this game into a defensive slugfest.
Take the under on Thursday night.
2♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
UCLA (+2') at WASHINGTON
For today’s complimentary selection, I’ll take the points with UCLA in Pac-10 football action against Washington.
Can’t trust the Huskies to cover a pointspread right now, especially as a favorite. They’ve failed to cash in six straight games, all conference contests. And if not for a pair of last-second, one-point wins over Oregon State (35-34 in overtime) and USC (32-31), Washington would be 0-7 in conference and 1-8 on the season.
Clearly, UCLA isn’t anything more than a middle-of-the-road Pac-10 squad. However, after getting crushed in consecutive road games at Cal (35-7) and Oregon (60-13), the Bruins have bounced back with strong efforts at home (29-21 loss to Arizona; 17-14 win over Oregon State). And Rick Neuheisel’s squad (194 rushing ypg) figures to run over, around and through a Washington defense that has provided little ground resistance this year (219.6 rushing ypg allowed).
The Bruins are riding a three-game winning streak against Washington, they’re 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings (3-1 on the road) and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes (5-1 ATS last seven trips to the Pacific Northwest). Finally, the fact rain is in the forecast favors UCLA, which doesn’t even try to throw the football, and works against the Huskies and QB Jake Locker, who has struggled with his accuracy in what has been a disappointing season (plus, Locker missed the last game with injured ribs that still aren’t 100 percent).
3♦ UCLA
Chris Jordan
UCLA (+2') at WASHINGTON
The must-win will be a disappointment to Seattle fans hoping the Huskies will be making a run to the postseason. Washington's postseason hopes will come to a close tonight, as the Bruins should win this one.
UCLA has won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and though this is the last home game for the Huskies, especially 17 UW seniors, I still believe the Bruins will be able to utilize their offensive game to keep Washington's dangerous quarterback off the field.
Once UCLA gets its running game going out of the pistol formation, the Bruins can definitely pull off the upset win. When it played Oregon State, its offense was on the field roughly 70 percent of the time in the second half, limiting Washington's Jake Locker.
The Bruins have rushed for 210 yards or more in their four wins, so I'll bank on a big performance from UCLA's offensive line, stifling Washington's front seven on the defensive side to help create a passing game. Balance will be the key in this upset win.
4♦ UCLA
Karl Garrett
Air Force at UNLV (+19')
Air Force has locked up a spot in their 4th straight bowl, and are playing their final regular season game this year. I can definitely see the Falcons being a little less focused than they normally are in this game just off the strip.
The Falcons are just 2-6 against the spread their last 8 games, while the Rebels come into this game off a straight up rout over Wyoming at Sam Boyd Stadium.
That cover puts the Rebs at 4-1 against the spread at home this season.
Series numbers showing the home team with covers in 5 in a row, and 6 of the last 7.
Take the points and look for the "back door" to be ajar!
3♦ UNLV
Scott Delaney
Air Force (-19') at UNLV
Don't read into UNLV's monster win over Wyoming last week.
It still sucks!
Two wins this season: New Mexico and Wyoming, and both are in the bottom five - along with the Rebels - of the nation's 120 D-I FBS teams.
Tonight one of the worst defenses in the nation will get pummeled in the team's home finale, while the second-best rushing game just might tally about 300 yards on the ground.
Keep this in mind, prior to last week's blowout win over Wyoming, the Rebels had a -900-yard rushing differential in their previous five games.
Though the Rebels still have a couple games on the road; this is the Falcons' season finale, so it's time to impress the bowl committees with a big win here. No way they come in and let this one stay close
Look for this game to be covering by halftime, as the Falcons will win this one by a similar score of 42-14.
5♦ AIR FORCE
Michael Cannon
South Florida at CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7')
Lay the points with Central Florida over South Florida.
New head coach Donnie Jones has the Knights playing a new, up-tempo style that he brought with him from Marshall. Last year’s Thundering Herd team led C-USA in scoring and the early results have been promising for a Knights team that only averaged 66.7 points per game last season.
Central Florida returns its top eight players from last season and boasts a talented backcourt led by sophomore Marcus Jordan, son of Michael.
Jordan showed signs of emerging as a go-to scorer late last season and finished the season as the Knight’s leading scorer during conference play at 10.8 ppg.
This is a bad matchup for South Florida, who returns one of the best frontcourts in the Big East but has precious little experience in the backcourt.
That’s not good considering how much the Knights like to run.
Lay the points with Central Florida for the win and cover.
3♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Derek Mancini
Maryland (+7) vs. Pittsburgh, at New York, NY
Now onto your free pick, as Maryland and Pittsburgh collide in semifinals action of the 2K Classic at the MSG. Not many people giving the Terps a chance here, based on the loss of 3 starters, including star Greivis Vazquez. But before you go jumping on the Panthers bandwagon, consider the match ups.
No question the Terps have the edge on the frontline with star Jordan Williams and his 21 ppg and nearly 14 rpg. The good news is the super sophomore is surrounded by uperclassmen in Tucker, Bowie, Mosley, and Gregory. Then there's two talented frehsman guards in Pe'Shon Howard and Terrell Stoglin. Clearly, we give the edge to Pitt in the backcourt with Gibbs/Wannamaker, but overall the match ups are right on the block, especially if Williams can get McGhee in foul trouble.
A lot of bettors are touting the Panthers here because they saw the Terps struggle against Charleston earlier this month, but don't get too caught up in one bad game. It was a learning lesson for this young team, and they quickly responded by destroying cupcake Maine in their next one. More importantly, they cut down the turnovers, and actually hit their free throws, two things we didn't see against Charleston.
Finally, there's no question the public loves Pitt here, and maybe if you got this game when the line opened, you could see some value. But as of right now the public has moved this line too far, sucking all the value out of the Panthers and transfering it to the Terps. It's simply too many points to lay considering the match ups and the venue. Maryland plus the points over Pittsburgh Thursday.
3♦ MARYLAND
Bobby Maxwell
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Maryland, at New York City
I'm delivering a FREE winner tonight on the college hoops court as I go ahead and lay the small chalk with Pitt taking on Maryland in the semifinals of the 2K Classic tourney from Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Over on the NFL gridiron, I'm handing out a 400-Unit winner tonight in the matchup between the Bears and Dolphins from Miami. I bagged my last 400-Unit NFL play on Monday when the Eagles crushed the Redskins.
For my comp selection, Pittsburgh has opened the season with three straight wins, but they have all been at home. Tonight they are on the road at Madison Square Garden to take on Maryland in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic.
The Panthers have won their first three games by an average of 32.4 points. They have six players averaging at least five rebounds and they will need all of them to step up tonight against the Terps’ Jordan Williams who is averaging 13.7 rebounds per game and 21 points.
Maryland needed a last-second shot to beat Charleston back on Nov. 10, winning 75-74 as 13 ½-point favorites. So these guys are still trying to fill the holes left when Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes graduated last season.
Pitt is just one of those classic Big East teams that bangs on the boards hard and uses its defense to throttle teams. Pitt is on ATS surges of 15-6-2 against teams with winning records and 13-6 against a team with a winning percentage better than .600. Maryland is on ATS slides of 0-5 against Big East teams and 1-5 at a neutral site.
Pitt is a very balanced team and look for them to pull away against the Terps tonight. Lay the points and play the Panthers.
3♦ PITT
Stephen Nover
Illinois (-2) vs. Texas, at New York
My complimentary winner for Thursday is in the college basketball ranks, as I take Illinois to cover against Texas in the 2K Classic Championship tournament at Madison Square Garden.
Illinois is playing well going 3-0 opening with a 14-point win against UC Irvine, defeating Toledo by 39 points and then Southern Illinois by 22 points.
The Illini has a considerable size advantage on Texas with 7-foot-1 Mike Tisdale, 6-9 Mike Davis and 7-foot freshman Meyers Leonard off the bench. Texas' main front-court players, Gary Johnson and freshman Tristan Thompson, are 6-6 and 6-8, respectively.
Texas finished last season losing 10 of its last 17 games and then falling to Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The Longhorns are without their three top scorers from last season. They have only one returning starter.
Texas is terrible again from the free throw line and from 3-point range. The Longhorns rank 214th in free throw percent at 64.3. They are 293rd in 3-point field goal percentage at 24.2 percent.
Texas was 4 of 17 from 3-point range and made only 19 of 34 free throws in its opener against Navy. Illinois is a huge upgrade on the Midshipmen.
Illinois is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games versus Big 12 teams. Texas is 3-15 ATS the last 18 times it has played a team with a winning record.
2♦ ILLINOIS
Jeff Benton
Thursday’s freebie comes from college basketball, as we’ll lay the couple of points with 13th-ranked Illinois against Texas from Madison Square Garden.
There’s a reason the Illini in the span of eight months have gone from a team that couldn’t get out of the NIT quarterfinals to a Top 15 team/Sweet 16 contender: They’re loaded with talent and experience. Illinois returns all five starters, including point guard Demetri McCarney (first-team All-Big Ten last year), and has added a bevy of top-flight recruits, highlighted by Jereme Richmond (the Illini’s first McDonald’s All-American since Dee Brown left after the 2006 season).
Illinois’ depth and athleticism has been on display already this season, as the team has ripped off three straight 20-plus-point wins while piling up 79, 84 and 85 points, shooting 54.4 percent from the field, holding the opposition to 57.7 ppg and 36 percent shooting, and outrebounding opponents by an average of 7.4 boards per game.
True, the competition (Toledo, Southern Illinois and UC Irvine) has been weak, but Illini coach Bruce Weber – who is extremely underrated – has shown how much he likes his team, with nine players averaging between 16 and 26 minutes and five guys averaging at least nine points.
While Illinois returns its starting five, Texas has had to replace its top three players, and even though the Longhorns reloaded with a strong recruiting class, the Illini have a massive experience edge in this contest. They also have a massive edge on the sidelines (as much as I love Weber, Texas’ Rick Barnes has always been one of those coaches who figures out a way to do less with more).
Illinois is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games against Big 12 competition, while the Longhorns have failed to cover in 20 of their last 28 overall and 15 of 18 against winning teams. The Illini roll to a comfortable victory in a high-scoring contest.
5♦ ILLINOIS