SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Miami (4-5 SU and ATS) at Carolina (4-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to get back to .500 square off when the Dolphins travel to Bank of America Stadium for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.
Miami let a 19-6 halftime lead slip away Sunday against Tampa Bay, giving up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to fall behind 23-22 before rallying for a 25-23 victory on a field goal in the waning seconds. The Dolphins failed to cash as a hefty 10-point home chalk, after covering in four of their previous five games (3-2 SU).
Miami racked up 199 rushing yards against the Bucs, with Ricky Williams (20 carries, 102 yards) and Ronnie Brown (12 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) doing the bulk of the work. The Dolphins have the league’s fourth-best rushing attack for the year (156.2 ypg), but Brown – the catalyst for the Miami’s “Wildcat” offense – suffered an injured right foot in the win and has been ruled out for tonight.
Carolina dropped visiting Atlanta 28-19 Sunday as a one-point underdog to cover for the third straight week (2-1 SU), and it was also the first time in four tries this year that the Panthers cashed at home. QB Jake Delhomme was miserable in the first six games of the year, committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two fumbles), but over the past three weeks, he’s got three TD passes and no INTs.
Perhaps no coincidence, Delhomme has gotten a lot of help lately from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has 640 rushing yards and five TDs over the past five weeks, including three games of 149 yards or more. In fact, the Panthers are one spot ahead of the Dolphins on the rushing list, averaging 156.6 ypg, and they had 185 in Sunday’s win over the Falcons.
These squads have met just three times in regular-season play since 1998, with Miami going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Dolphins earned a 27-24 home win as a three-point pup in September 2005. In a preseason meeting this past August, Miami won 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk.
The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the highway and 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road pup, but they shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 7-19-1 against losing teams, 2-5 in November and 5-11-3 as an underdog of three points or less. The Panthers had failed to cash in four straight home games prior to the win over the Falcons and they’re still just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home chalk. On the positive end, Carolina is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in November and 6-0-1 laying three points or less.
The over has hit in five of six overall for Miami and is on an 11-5 run for the Dolphins against losing teams. Conversely, coach Tony Sparano’s troops are also on “under” stretches of 9-3 in November, 15-5 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 6-1 as a road pup.
The over has been the play in five of Carolina’s last six November outings, but otherwise the Panthers are on “under” rolls of 14-6 at home and 4-0 as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-3-1 ATS)
Colorado will attempt to snap an 11-game road losing skid when it travels south to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., for a Big 12 battle with the 12th-ranked Cowboys, who will be without starting quarterback Zac Robinson.
The Buffalos are coming off Saturday’s 17-10 loss at Iowa State, failing to cover as a five-point road underdog. Colorado had a huge 390-310 edge in total offense, but committed three turnovers as it fell to 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) in Big 12 play. The Buffaloes have followed up a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cover in three of their last four.
Oklahoma State outlasted Texas Tech 24-17 on Saturday Night, cashing as a 4½-point home favorite. The Cowboys rolled up 251 rushing yards on 60 carries, which helped them hold the ball for more than 37 minutes. However, Oklahoma State still got outgained overall (357-341), and it also lost Robinson, who had a team-high 99 rushing yards, to a head injury after a hard collision in the final two minutes. Robinson, a senior, has been ruled out of his final home game, leaving the offense in the hands of junior Alex Cate, who will be making his first collegiate start.
The Cowboys (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS in conference) will be trying to keep alive their slim hopes for a Big 12 South title. Oklahoma State trails third-ranked Texas by one game in the standings, but needs to win out and have the Longhorns lose their final two games to steal the division title, as Texas has the tiebreaker edge based on a 41-14 win over the Cowboys three weeks ago.
Robinson (217 passing yards, one passing TD, one rushing TD) guided the Cowboys to a 30-17 win at Colorado last year, but the Buffs covered as a 17-point home underdog. The road team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry going back to 2001, and Colorado has covered in the last two after going 1-6 ATS in the previous seven meetings. The Buffs are 6-1 SU in their last seven trips to Oklahoma State.
Colorado has been outscored by an average of 14.4 points per game in its five road defeats this year (32.8-18.4), and the Buffs have produced a total of 30 points in their three Big 12 road losses (Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State). On the other hand, the Cowboys are 5-2 at home (4-2 ATS in lined action), with the four wins against Division I-A competition coming by an average of 13.5 ppg, while the two losses – to Texas and Houston – were by margins of 27 and 10 points.
The Buffaloes have covered in four straight games as a double-digit underdog and they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU defeat. However, they’re also in ATS declines of 6-15 on the road, 4-13 as a road pup and 3-7 after a non-cover.
Oklahoma State is on pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall (all in Big 12 play), 37-16-2 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk, 21-6 as a favorite of more than 10 points, 14-5 against losing opponents and 8-3 when coming off a spread-cover.
The over is 9-3 in Colorado’s last 12 November outings, 6-2 in its last eight after a SU loss and 4-0 in its last four games on field turf. For the Cowboys, the “over” is on streaks of 32-13 at home and 8-3 versus losing teams, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-0 in their last four as a favorite.
Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-0 in Stillwater).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Syracuse (2-0 SU and ATS) vs. (13) California (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
(at New York)
Syracuse makes the short trek south to Madison Square Garden to battle the 13th-ranked Golden Bears in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic.
The Orange bounced back from a stunning preseason loss to Division II Le Moyne with a pair of blowout season-opening victories over Albany (75-43 as a 20-point home favorite) and Robert Morris (100-60 as an 18½-point home chalk). Not only did Syracuse shoot 53.3 percent from the field in the two victories, but it held both opponents to just 31.6 percent.
California survived a season-opening scare against Murray State, eking out a 75-70 win as a 13½-point home favorite on Nov. 9, then followed that with last Thursday’s 95-61 rout of Detroit as a 17-point chalk. The Bears, who are the highest-ranked Pac-10 squad this season, stumbled to the finish line last year, losing five of their final seven games, including the last three in a row.
Syracuse is on ATS runs of 11-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-0 when coming off a victory over more than 20 points. Cal snapped a four-game ATS funk with last week’s easy cover against Detroit, but it is still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall. The Bears also have failed to cover in four straight neutral-site games, but otherwise they’re on pointspread surges of 5-2 in non-conference games, 11-5 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 4-0 following a victory of more than 20 points.
The over is on runs of 7-1 for Syracuse overall, 13-3 for Syracuse at neutral sites, 20-7 for Syracuse after a SU win, 5-2 when Syracuse plays on Thursday, 35-16-1 for Cal overall, 13-3 for Cal at neutral sites, 4-1 for Cal in non-conference games and 22-8 when Cal plays on Thursday.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) North Carolina (3-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. (15) Ohio State (2-0 SU and ATS)
(at New York)
North Carolina shoots for its 10th consecutive victory overall and fourth in a row to begin this season when it takes on the Buckeyes in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden.
The Tar Heels are coming off a competitive 88-77 home win over Valparaiso on Sunday, falling way short of covering as a 23-point home favorite. Going back to their 89-72 victory over Michigan State in the national championship game back in April, North Carolina has scored 89, 88, 89 and 88 points in its last four games, while allowing 72 or more in three of those contests. Since losing to Florida State in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last March, the Heels have posted nine straight double-digit victories (7-2 ATS), averaging 88 ppg while giving up 66.3 ppg.
Going back to the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 80-8 SU. And despite losing a ton of talent to the NBA, the defending champs are shooting a blistering 57.1 percent from the field through their first three games while holding the opposition to 35.8 percent shooting.
Ohio State sprinted out of the gate with a pair of lopsided home wins over Alcorn State (100-60 as a 39-point favorite) and James Madison (72-44 as a 19-point chalk). The Buckeyes, who outshot their first two opponents by a combined 49.6 percent to 32.7 percent, bowed out in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament after losing to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Thad Matta’s squad is just 7-6 in its last 13 games, but it has cashed in five of its last six.
These schools squared off in the ACC-Big Ten challenge in 2006 and 2007, with the Tar Heels prevailing both times by scores of 98-89 as an 8½-point home favorite and 66-55 as a 5½-point road ‘dog.
UNC possesses nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall, 37-12 in non-conference play, 5-0 against the Big Ten, 5-1 on Thursday, 6-0 at neutral sites (going back to last year’s NCAA Tournament run) and 6-0 against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is on ATS rolls of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at neutral venues, 14-4 in non-league play, 4-0 after a SU win, 14-6 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on Thursday, but the Buckeyes are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against ACC opponents.
The under is 5-2 in the Tar Heels’ last seven at neutral sites, 4-1 in their last five on Thursday, 6-2 in Ohio State’s last eight overall and 7-1 in OSU’s last eight after an outright victory.
The winner of this contest takes on the Syracuse-Cal winner in Friday’s tournament finale.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NBA
Chicago (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS)
The Bulls continue their six-game Western Conference road swing with a stop at the Staples Center in Los Angeles to face the defending world champion Lakers.
Chicago opened the road trip with Tuesday’s 101-87 win in Sacramento, cashing in as a 2½-point favorite as Luol Deng had 16 points and 10 rebounds to go with Joakim Noah’s 15 points and 14 boards. It was just the Bulls’ second road win of the season (2-3 SU and ATS) and the first time they scored in triple digits this season. Their previous high was in Saturday’s 94-88 home win over the Sixers.
Los Angeles snapped a two-game SU and ATS losing streak with Tuesday’s 106-93 home win over the Pistons, covering as a 9½-point favorite. Kobe Bryant poured in 40 points – the 100th time in his career he hit that plateau –and dished out five assists while center Andrew Bynum had 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The Lakers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series and three straight (2-1 ATS) at Staples Center. They scored a 116-109 home win last November but came up short as 13-point favorites, then went to Chicago in March and rolled 117-109 as a 3 ½-point chalk. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall, but the road team has cashed in four of the last five overall and the ‘dog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road ‘dog and 1-5 ATS in its last six after getting one day off, but the Bulls are on positive ATS runs of 14-1-1 against the Western Conference, 11-2 against Pacific Division teams, 19-9-1 as an underdog and 10-4 on Thursday. The Lakers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records, but they’re otherwise on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4 on Thursday, 4-1 at home, 5-1 against Central Division teams and 4-1 against Eastern Conference squads.
Chicago is on several “under” runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 6-1 against Western Conference teams, 4-0 as a ‘dog, 7-2 on Thursday and 5-2 against Pacific Division teams. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 11-4 at home, 34-16-1 as a favorite, 20-7 on Thursdays, 12-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 6-1 following a spread-cover. In this rivalry, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 clashes overall, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
Miami at Carolina
The Dolphins look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 road games. Miami is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3)
Game 305-306: Miami at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.151; Carolina 134.413
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
NCAAF
Colorado at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog. Oklahoma State is the pick (-18) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-18)
Game 307-308: Colorado at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 83.529; Oklahoma State 102.759
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 19; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 18; 48
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-18); Over
NBA
Phoenix at New Orleans
The Suns look to take advantage of a New Orleans team that is 4-23 ATS in its last 27 games as an underdog between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6)
Game 701-702: Phoenix at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 124.588; New Orleans 114.724
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6); Under
Game 703-704: Utah at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 113.305; San Antonio 122.755
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 197 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 202
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7); Under
Game 705-706: Chicago at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.911; LA Lakers 131.432
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Syracuse vs. California
The Orange look to take advantage of a California team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games at a neutral site. Syracuse is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Syracuse.
Game 707-708: Richmond at William & Mary
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 61.063; William & Mary 52.536
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 4
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-4)
Game 709-710: Long Beach State at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 50.772; Notre Dame 69.343
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 16
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-16)
Game 711-712: Rice at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 53.898; Arizona 70.811
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17
Vegas Line: Arizona by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-15 1/2)
Game 713-714: Santa Clara at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 53.132; San Diego State 71.839
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-12 1/2)
Game 715-716: Dayton vs. Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 60.919; Georgia Tech 64.652
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech
Game 717-718: George Mason vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 55.786; Villanova 69.503
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 14
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+14)
Game 719-720: Indiana vs. Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 53.324; Mississippi 63.309
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 10
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 9
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-9)
Game 721-722: Boston U. vs. Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U. 51.675; Kansas State 64.081
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 12 12
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston U. (+14 1/2)
Game 723-724: Tulane vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 58.843; Miami (FL) 67.195
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 10
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+10)
Game 725-726: NC Wilmington vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 42.926; Penn State 62.367
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-11)
Game 727-728: South Florida vs. Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.437; Davidson 63.418
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Davidson
Game 729-730: LaSalle vs. South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 55.972; South Carolina 69.240
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-7 1/2)
Game 731-732: Syracuse vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 72.976; California 65.876
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse
Game 733-734: North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 74.590; Ohio State 69.524
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 5
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-2)
Game 735-736: Rider at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 58.095; Virginia 60.870
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 3
Vegas Line: Virginia by 5
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+5)
Game 737-738: Eastern Kentucky at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.524; Pittsburgh 71.665
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 14
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 15
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15)
Game 739-740: Pacific at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 53.262; Northern Arizona 54.447
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 1
Vegas Line: Pacific by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+2 1/2)
Game 741-742: Montana at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 54.659; Denver 56.036
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 4
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+4)
Game 743-744: Utah Valley at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Utah Valley 47.810; Minnesota 74.448
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 24 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-24 1/2)
NHL
Phoenix at St. Louis
The Coyotes look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in its last 7 home games. Phoenix is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+155)
Game 51-52: Toronto at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.246; Carolina 10.077
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-110); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+100); Under
Game 53-54: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.539; Atlanta 11.838
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 55-56: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.370; Ottawa 11.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-125); Over
Game 57-58: New Jersey at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.577; Nashville 13.159
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+110); Under
Game 59-60: Phoenix at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.988; St. Louis 11.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+155); Over
Game 61-62: Columbus at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.094; Dallas 12.238
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-140); Over
Game 63-64: Chicago at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.897; Calgary 12.124
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Tampa Bay at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.579; Anaheim 11.376
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+140); Under
Marc Lawrence
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets host the Suns with both teams off wins Tuesday night in a key game on TNT this evening. New Orleans' victory over the Clippers was their initial win under their new head coach while Phoenix checks in off an six-point underdog win at Houston. With the Hornets looking to avenge a 20-point loss suffered at Phoenix earlier this season, look for the Suns to fall to 4-13 ATS in this series when New Orleans is off a win. Take the points in this payback with the Hornets.
BIG AL
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Utah Jazz
At times this season, the Spurs have looked good. The problem is that those times have been few, and far between. Last night, actually, San Antonio played well, but it still wasn't enough to overcome the Mavericks in 'Big D.' And the fact that the game needed an overtime session won't help the Spurs' tired legs tonight at home. Earlier this year, Utah blasted San Antonio at the Delta Center, and the Spurs had a full complement of players for that game. However, tonight, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker will be in street clothes. In that first meeting, Deron Williams went off for 27 points and nine assists, and he'll give 2nd-year pro George Hill fits (notwithstanding the fact that Hill is a very good defender). Another Jazz player whom the Spurs had trouble with in that first meeting was unheralded rookie guard Wesley Matthews. And of course, Carlos Boozer (27 points; 14 rebounds) played well in that game against Timmy Duncan. The Spurs have struggled against the spread in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last few years (cashing just 27 of 73), and that's been the case whether that second game was on the road or at home. Take Utah.
Matt Fargo
North Carolina at Ohio State
Prediction: Ohio State
This has the makings of a great early season battle and we are going to go with the value here this line is going to get tons of North Carolina money. As a matter of fact, the Tar Heels have gotten 70 percent of the action yet the line has gone from -2.5 down to -2 in a lot of places as of Thursday morning. North Carolina is the defending National Champions so it will be getting a lot of early season love simply base on name alone. The Tar Heels won it all last season, but of the seven players who logged more than four minutes in the championship game, only Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard remain, and five freshmen have been added. The Tar Heels have won their first three games but all have come at home and the two games against the better schools, Florida International and Valparaiso, were far from dominating. Despite shooting 56.1 percent against the Crusaders in the last game, North Carolina turned it over 14 times and was only 62.1 percent (18-29) from the free throw line. Ohio St. is a team that if flying under the radar. The Buckeyes are ranked 15th in the country and they return all five starters from last season and seven juniors and seniors, and no freshmen, are among Ohio St.?s top nine players. The Buckeyes easily won their first two games at home and this is the first road game of the season for them as well but it comes in a familiar environment. They participated in the Preseason NIT at MSG and there are six players remaining from that team that went 1-1 so that experience will be an added benefit on the big stage. Ohio St. will need to be able to rebound against the very tall Tar Heels and one player who will help is wing Evan Turner. He had the program's second recorded triple-double with 14 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists against Alcorn and then became the first Buckeye in 24 years to have back-to-back games with at least 17 rebounds when he hauled down 17 boards against James Madison. Forward Dallas Lauderdale's shot-blocking presence inside should help the defense, and he and everyone else need to help Turner with the rebounding that triggers transition. Ohio St. falls into a great early season situation as well. Play on teams in the first five games of the season that are coming off two or more consecutive home wins, with all five starters returning from last year. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when coming off a game where they allowed 33 percent or less shooting from the floor. 3* Ohio St. Buckeyes
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Phoenix Suns -6
What we want to do here is play on rested road favorites off a road dog win if they shot 50% or better from the field scored 100 or more and take on a home team off a home win. The Hornets are a struggling team this year and can only win right now with the shock value of a new coach. They were able to get past the Clippers at home in their last game,however this Phoenix team has been playing excellent ball and has been hard to beat even on the road. They were one of the few teams to go into Boston and emerge with a win. Look for another solid road performance tonight.
Jack Jones
Colorado vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Over 47
The value in this game is clearly with the OVER tonight. This line has dropped 2.5 points, meaning the public is on the UNDER when it should be on the OVER. The reason this total is dropping is due to Oklahoma State's recent 4-1 UNDER run. But the Cowboys are more than capable of taking care of this OVER by themselves, and with QB Zac Robinson playing tonight after a concussion, they won't miss a beat offensively. The Cowboys have scored 33 or more points in 7 of their last 9 games, and the only time they failed to reach that 33-number was against a great Texas defense and an improved Texas Tech defense. Colorado is not a good defensive team, giving up 28.7 points/game overall and 32.8 points/game on the road. Given those averages, I see no possibility of Colorado holding the Cowboys to less than 35 points. Oky State's defense has not been spectacular, allowing 22.9 points/game at home this season. That said, I also feel Colorado will score at least 2 touchdowns tonight to help chip in to get this thing over the number. The OVER is 6-0 in Buffaloes last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The OVER is 32-13 in Cowboys last 45 home games. Take the OVER.
JR TIPS
Dolphins at Panthers
Carolina has won four of its last six to climb back into contention in the NFC wild-card race after beating the Falcons 28-19 last week. Carolina's running backs Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams combined for 174 yards on the ground with 30 rushing attempts. Jake Delhomme completed 15-of-24 passes for 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted although Delhomme still has an awful 7/13 touchdown-interception ratio for the season but hasn’t been picked off in three consecutive games in which they have won. All-Pro receiver Steve Smith also scored 2 touchdowns last week. Miami is also in the AFC wild-card hunt after they almost suffered a collapse at home last week against Tampa Bay in which Dan Carpenter had to kick the game-winning field goal from 25 yards out with 10 ticks to get quarterback Chad Henne was taken off the hook for a terrible interception that had set the Bucs up with a go-ahead score just moments before Carpenter field goal attempt. Ricky Williams ran for 102 yards on 20 carries and Ronnie Brown had 82 rushing yards and a TD on just 12 carries, but he left the game with an ankle injury that will keep him out for the season. Henne completed 17-of-31 passes for 175 yards and one TD which was a five-yard connection to Kory Sperry late in the second quarter. With Brown out, Ricky Williams will get the starting nod for the first time since late last season as he has 105 carries for 558 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Miami's linebacker Joey Porter is expected to be in the lineup this week but just hast 10 tackles, two assists and 2 ½ sacks in 2009. Miami TE Anthony Fasano DB Gibril Wilson are listed as questionable while Carolina is an extremely healthy team with no significant players out. Carolina is a contender if Jake Delhomme continues to play like he has in recent weeks after they beat Arizona by a 34-21 score three weeks ago and then led at New Orleans for much of the game before losing 30-20 as 12 ½-point road underdogs. This Carolina team is poised for a second half run as they have a very good running game that keeps Jake in positive situations allowing him to exploit his All-Pro receive in Steve Smith. This team is playing good solid football in all 3 phases of the game while the Dolphins looked challenged in their win against the Bucs. With Ronnie Brown being out who has jump started the wildcat offense all year, there will be more responsibility put on quarterback Chad Henne in which he is not ready to handle especially on the road in Carolina tonight.
TAKE CAROLINA-3
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO BULLS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS
TAKE: UNDER
The reason Chicago has a winning record is defense. They come off a win at the Kings, 101-87, on Tuesday night. It was the first game with more than 100 points for Chicago, which was held under 90 in five of its previous seven games and entered with the NBA's third-worst shooting percentage. The Bulls allow 91.8 ppg, 6th best in the NBA. Chicago is 8-2 under the total. The Lakers are still without Pau Gasol, one of their top offensive players, and riding a 2-1 run under the total. Chicago will be content to slow the pace down against the defending champs. play the Bulls/Lakers Under the total.
Karl Garrett
Miami at CAROLINA
Taking a look at tonight's NFL total, and the G-Man will side with the OVER in the Dolphins-Panthers game, as both teams are fresh off Sunday OVERS, and the short week should work in favor of both offenses getting their shots in tonight.
Miami has scored in the 30's in 4 of their last 6 games, and while the injury to Ronnie Brown will hurt, I expect Ricky Williams to have a showcase game tonight under the lights.
Carolina has scored 82-points over their last 3 games, but they have also allowed 20-points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, while Miami has allowed 23-points or more in in ALL 5 of their last 5 games!
No two ways about it, this game will find its way into the OVER column before the final play is snapped.
4♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Phoenix -6 at NEW ORLEANS
For Thursday’s free play, I’ll back the Suns minus the points at New Orleans.
I think it’s time to accept the fact that Phoenix is legit this year. After Tuesday’s 111-105 win at Houston as a 2½-point underdog, the Suns are now 10-2 overall and 6-2 on the road. One of those 10 wins came against the Hornets eight days ago in the desert, with the Suns – despite being in a horrible travel spot – romped 124-104 as a seven-point chalk.
New Orleans followed that ugly loss with two more blowout losses to the Blazers (86-78 as a three-point home underdog) and Hawks (121-98 as a 12 ½-point road underdog). Sure, the Hornets finally got in the win column Tuesday with a 110-102 home victory … but that was against the Clippers! In fact, New Orleans has just four wins all season, and two came against the Clippers, one came against the Kings and the other was an overtime victory over the Mavericks, who were playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Bottom line: The Hornets are a mess right now. They fired coach Byron Scott last week (a kneejerk move), then the very next day they lost All-Star point guard Chris Paul to a severe ankle injury. Paul, who will be out for least a couple of weeks, scored 25 points in his team’s 24-point loss in Phoenix eight days ago. He also locked down Suns point guard Steve Nash (13 points, two assists). So who on the Hornets is going to make up for Paul’s lost offensive production and defensive prowess? Answer: Nobody.
Phoenix has cashed in five of seven overall, four of five on the road and five straight when getting one day of rest between games, while the Hornets are in ATS ruts of 4-13 overall, 14-35-2 after a spread-cover, 9-25 as an underdog and 4-23 as an underdog of 5 to 10½ points, and they haven’t covered a pointspread in consecutive games all year.
7♦ PHOENIX
Dominic Fazzini
Utah +7' at SAN ANTONIO
Reeled in an easy winner with my complimentary selection Wednesday as Central Michigan routed Ball State. That makes it eight wins in my last 10 free plays, and I'm coming back for more today as I shift gears to the NBA.
It's well-documented that the Jazz have had plenty of problems in San Antonio, not winning there since Feb. 28, 1999. But I think Utah has a shot tonight, and definitely should cover the spread.
The Spurs are going to be without swingman Manu Ginobili, who left after the first quarter of Wednesday night's 99-94 overtime loss at Dallas with a strained groin. Coach Gregg Popovich said after the game that Ginobili would not play tonight, and he might also be without star point guard Tony Parker, who missed Wednesday's game with a sprained left ankle and is questionable for tonight.
Utah has been inconsistent this season, but seems to have found a valuable piece of its puzzle with the recent emergence of rookie guard Eric Maynor. With star point guard Deron Williams missing two games before Wednesday's 104-91 victory over Toronto because of a family issue, Maynor averaged 18.5 points and 7.5 assists. Maynor then had 15 points, 11 in the fourth quarter, and six assists off the bench Wednesday as he teamed with Williams to lead the Jazz to victory.
Most of the betting trends don't favor Utah here, but with the Spurs hurting and the Jazz finding a new weapon, I'm going to take a chance tonight. Go with the Jazz to cover the points.
2♦ UTAH
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago +9' at L.A. LAKERS
I'm on a 9-4 run witih my last 13 FREE selections and I'm going to deliver a nice comp selection tonight on the NBA hardwood with the Bulls as they take on the Lakers from Los Angeles.
Teams that give the Lakers trouble are the kind built just like these Bulls, with young, active legs that like to get up and down the court and make it a wild game. Very identical to Sunday’s home game when Houston was able to get up and down the court and beat the Lakers.
Chicago’s got a lot of length that can present problems on the boards for Los Angeles as Luol Deng and Joakim Noah combined for 24 rebounds in their last contest. And of course PG Derrick Rose is becoming a star in the league and you know he’ll bring the best game tonight in front of the Hollywood crowd.
The Bulls beat Sacramento on Tuesday 101-87 and cashed as a 2 ½-point road favorite and they continue their West Coast swing through the end of the month when they wrap up the trip in Milwaukee. This team is very tough on defense, giving up just 91.8 points a game.
Los Angeles has won four straight in this series, but the road team has gotten the cash in four of the last five meetings and the underdog has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings between these two. Chicago is on ATS runs of 14-1-1 against Western Conference teams, 11-2 against the Pacific Division and 19-9-1 as an underdog.
Look for Chicago to try and press the pace and get it up-tempo, while the Lakers try to stay in control. Grab the points with Chicago as these youngsters are ready for the Hollywood stage.
4♦ CHICAGO
Sports Gambling Hotline
Rider +5 at VIRGINIA
College football winner on Buffalo last night, now 5-1 the last 6 days with our comp plays.
As you can see by Monday's 66-49 loss at South Florida, it is going to take a while before former Washington State coach Tony Bennett makes an imprint on his new program.
Rider is an established veteran team that has both size, and a strong off-season recruiting class coming into the fold for the new season.
The Broncos have already posted an 88-74 road outright win to open the season at Mississippi State, and are not likely to be intimidated by this visit into Charlottesville this Thursday night.
Until Virginia shows some cohesion, we will fade them.
Play on Rider to come up big on the road once again.
4♦ RIDER
Tony Weston
Easy call last night on the Rockets as they cruise to a solid victory over the Timberwolves, just like I said they would. I’m handing you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking the Under in the Colorado-Oklahoma State Big XII matchup.
The number set for this game is hovering around 47 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this. But it won’t matter because these two will fall well short.
Coming into this game Oklahoma State has stayed Under the Total in 4 of its last 5 games as it’s averaging only 46 points per game in that stretch. In the team’s last two games, the Cowboys have totaled, on average, just 41.5 points per game.
Now they battle a Colorado team that’s stayed Under the Total in 3 straight games on the road, totaling, on average, 35 points per game.
Consider, too, Colorado and Oklahoma State have stayed Under the Total in 3 of their last 4 meetings, including last year’s when they combined for 47 points.
These teams are staying Under the Total again tonight.
3♦ COLORADO-OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER