Craig Davis
Miami at CAROLINA
Tonight's free play is on the Panthers/Dolphins matchup UNDER the listed total. Here we have two teams that want to run the football. Two teams that would be glad to reach 20 points tonight. Both sides have RBs who are ailing (or out) and that will likely mean an even more conservative game plan. Why? Because neither team has too much faith in their starting QB and won't get too fancy tonight. The winner of the turnover battle will likely win this game, so expect a ton of conservative play from both of these offenses. The under has hit in 9 of Miami's last 12 November games, 14 of Carolina's last 20 home games, and the last four Carolina home games when listed as the favorite. Easy play on the under here tonight.
3♦ UNDER
LT Profits
La Salle at South Carolina
The South Carolina Gamecocks are already 2-0 this season and we look for them to make it a hat trick tonight vs. a La Salle Explorers team that just barely got by Hampton in their opener.
South Carolina opened the year with a 38-point win in a non-lined game vs. Alabama A&M and they followed that up by beating Georgia Southern by 24, just covering the 22-point spread. This line is much more manageable, and the Gamecocks are not really stepping up in class that much. They have smothered their first two opponents defensively, allowing only 58.0 points per game on a microscopic 34.1 percent shooting from the floor while forcing 45 turnovers.
On the offensive end, Devan Downey may compete for SEC Player of the Year honors this season, and the senior guard is already filling up the star sheet, averaging 18.5 points, 5.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals in the first two games. He has gotten some nice support from fellow senior Dominique Archie, who has hit nine of 14 from the floor so far including an incredible five of his six three-point attempts. That dup should come up big vs. a soft La Salle defense.
The Explorers were life-and-death to come away with an 83-80 win over Hampton, which does not bode well for them given this major jump in class. La Salle ranked 212 out of 335 Division I schools in defensive field goal percentage allowed last season, and after watching the Pirates shred them in the opener, how are they going to contain an upper-tier SEC school that can score?
The answer is they cannot, so we see South Carolina coming away with a double-digit win here.
Pick: South Carolina -7.5
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
356 - 244 run 58 %
Free Play Thurs College Pittsburg
8)
Randall the Handle
Tampa Bay +1.36 over ANAHEIM
The Ducks are a team to stay away from these days, as there is something very wrong with them. The focus, determination or both are missing badly and that’s been very evident in most of its games this season. The forwards aren’t chipping in and the defense is giving away more free candy than any team in the league. The Ducks are coming off a four game East Coast trip in which they didn’t win a game and surrendered 12 goals in its final two games. Only once in the four games did they score more than twice. Meanwhile, the Lightning has picked up points in six straight and the scary thing is that they’re not even playing so great. They’ve only managed more than 22 shots on net once in those past six games but they’re still winning and that’s a testament to how sharp its marksmen are. Lecavlier and Tanguay are starting to get it going after a slow start for both. The Bolts should get tons of scoring chances tonight against this soft and very easy to fore-check host. The Ducks have serious problems and something is going to give real soon. Play: Tampa Bay +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS -½ +1.19 over Columbus
The Jackets have won four of its last five games and the Stars are usually a much better dog than favorite but a close look reveals that the Jackets really aren’t playing that good. First, Steve Mason will start and he’s been way off all year with a 3.67 GAA and an 8.79 save %. Those aforementioned four wins came against Atlanta (minus Kovalchuk), Carolina, a reeling Ducks team in OT and a exhausted Oilers team playing the final game of a five-game trip. That one also went into OT. The loss they suffered in there was that memorable 9-1 thumping to the Red Wings, the only real tough game over that five-game stretch and the same Red Wing team the Stars defeated last night in Detroit. Prior to that the Jackets had dropped four of five. Last year the Jackets only visit to Dallas resulted in a 7-3 loss. Dallas is 4-1-1 against the Central Division and that’s where the Jackets reside. The Stars are healthy, they’re tough to beat and they’re on the verge of going on a roll and this Jackets team is getting just a bit too much credit when in fact, they’re not playing well at all. Play: Dallas -½ +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
ST. LOUIS -½ +1.04 over Phoenix
The money line seems rather high (the Blues are –1.65) when you consider that there’s really not a lot that separates these two. In fact, an argument could be made that the Coyotes are the better team and who could argue, as they have six more wins than the Blue Notes. Furthermore, the Blues have just three wins in 11 home games while the Coyotes are a very decent 6-4 on the road. However, this one is strictly a situational play in that the line is so high because the books are very aware that Phoenix could be completely gassed while the Blue Notes are as rested as a team could possibly be. Phoenix will play its fifth game in a week, its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after a tough game in Minnesota last night. They looked to be running on fumes in the second period and portions of the third as well. So, sometimes you have to “read between the lines” and this is a prime example of that. The Blue Notes will play its second game this week and they’ve been off since Saturday. If this were an even playing field situation the Blues would be a lot shorter price. Play St. Louis -½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
NASHVILLE +1.07 over New Jersey
The Preds are playing too good to ignore as a pooch and while the Devils are playing great also, this game is in Nashville and it’s a place the Devils seldom visit. New Jersey has made three trips to Nashville in the past six years and after games against Philly, Washington and Pittsburgh, three of its biggest rivals, and after finally losing a road game, the Devils could definitely take a bit of a breather tonight. They were on a nine-game road winning streak and when a team is riding that high they’ll play their hearts out in order to keep it going. It takes a life of its own once it gets that high but once its broken you can almost hear the exhaling. The Preds figure to be the more jacked-up team, as they get to play one of the more successful franchises over the past decade or so. The arena is electric when it’s full and there’s a great chance it’ll be capacity or damn near it tonight. Nashville has won three in a row, seven of nine and they’re a dog tonight because they get very little recognition. Thing is, they’re great defensively, they’re getting outstanding goaltending, they’re healthy and they roll out three terrific lines. Play: Nashville +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/L.A. LAKERS under 194
The Bulls have hit 100 points just once all year and it came in its last game against Sacramento. However, that was one game but a better measure of how they play is what they’ve done against other high scoring teams. Against Denver, the final score was 90-89. Against the Raps the final score was 99-89; against Milwaukee, 83-81, against Cleveland 86-85 and the list goes on and on. The Bulls know they can’t get into a shooting contest with the Lakers because they know they have no shot of winning if they do. The Bulls are going to have to dictate the pace of this game and while that might be a tough assignment, Phil Jackson is happy to play a defensive game. Yeah, the Lakers are capable of putting up a lot of points but this one is all about the Bulls. A team that shoots a low percentage, walks up the floor and they sure as hell aren’t going to change its strategy here. Play: Chicago/Lakers under 194 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Wunderdog
Columbus at Dallas
Pick: Dallas -130
The Columbus Blue Jackets got out of the gate with five clean wins in their first six games, meaning it was all handled in regulation. Their have been only six wins since then, and half of those were decided in OT, or a shootout, so this team has definitely taken a step back. They have also had the benefit of playing their last four at home and look to be vulnerable here. Dallas finally comes home after a four-game road trip and will be ready to be greeted with cheers after not playing on home ice for almost two weeks. The reason I mention this is, is because Dallas is 13-6-1 on home ice after a road trip of seven days or more. The Blue Jackets are reeling against the Pacific at just 10-21 in their last 31 played. I'll go with Dallas in this one.