Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 20

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

SMU at Indiana
The Mustangs head to Indiana tonight following a 72-56 loss at Gonzaga and come into the contest with a 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat. SMU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2).

Game 705-706: Detroit at Michigan (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 49.618; Michigan 77.329
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 18
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-18)

Game 707-708: Florida Atlantic at Harvard (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 48.293; Harvard 67.905
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 19
Vegas Line: Harvard by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-16 1/2)

Game 709-710: Fordham at Maryland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 54.984; Maryland 70.468
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 18
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+18)

Game 711-712: SMU at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 70.523; Indiana 65.452
Dunkel Line: SMU by 5
Vegas Line: SMU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2)

Game 713-714: South Florida at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 51.774; UAB 56.296
Dunkel Line: UAB by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-2)

Game 715-716: Southern Mississippi at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 53.035; Alabama 67.608
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12)

Game 717-718: Loyola-Marymount at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 56.065; Arizona State 66.764
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+12 1/2)

Game 719-720: Texas A&M vs. Dayton (10:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 66.658; Dayton 61.392
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-1 1/2)

Game 721-722: College of Charleston vs. Connecticut (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 54.243; Connecticut 67.160
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 13
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 15
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+15)

Game 723-724: New Mexico vs. Boston College (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 61.194; Boston College 58.580
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5 1/2)

Game 725-726: George Mason vs. West Virginia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 53.342; West Virginia 61.004
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 9
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+9)

Game 727-728: USC vs. Akron (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 56.377; Akron 52.152
Dunkel Line: USC by 4
Vegas Line: USC by 2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-2)

Game 729-730: Drexel vs. Miami (FL) (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 55.233; Miami (FL) 61.522
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+9 1/2)

Game 731-732: Penn State vs. Charlotte (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 61.855; Charlotte 54.169
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-3)

Game 733-734: Cornell vs. South Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 47.975; South Carolina 57.816
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 10
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+13 1/2)

Game 735-736: Texas vs. Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 77.547; Iowa 68.480
Dunkel Line: Texas by 9
Vegas Line: Texas by 6
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-6)

Game 737-738: Syracuse vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 68.987; California 61.451
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-4 1/2)

DAVE COKIN

ANAHEIM DUCKS AT VANCOUVER CANUCKS
PLAY: ANAHEIM DUCKS

Following a spectacular start to the season, things have leveled off somewhat of late for the Ducks. But I see Anaheim being in a good spot to garner a road win tonight as they head to Vancouver.

There’s good news on the injury/illness front for Anaheim. Corey Perry returned to action on Sunday, and they will apparently get Francois Beauchemin back to bolster the blue line tonight. It also looks good for Devante Smith-Pelly, who has been doing a good job for the Ducks in spite of being well under the radar.

Vancouver played at Edmonton last night and managed to come away with a 5-4 win as Ryan Miller raised his career record against the Oilers to an amazing 11-0. But on each of the previous four instances where the Canucks have had to go back to back, Eddie Lack has gotten call on night number two. Lack is an okay goalie, but he’s a downgrade from Miller and the Canucks are only 1-3 when he starts.

I think Vancouver might has one of the more misleading records in the league thus far. They’re really a very average team in numerous categories, and while they’re getting by pretty well, I’m not sure they’re more than a back end of the conference playoff entry, if even that.

The Ducks are having some issues once the game gets past 60 minutes, so they might need to win this in regulation. But they grade out as the superior squad here by a pretty decent margin, and they have a definite scheduling advantage going their way tonight. Freddy Andersen has done stellar work in goal, and while it’s very small sample, he sure seems to like playing against the Canucks.

It’s all about the stats I focus on and the scheduling and those factors nearly all indicate Anaheim as the side tonight. I’ll be looking to play the Ducks tonight as long as the price is right and there’s no bad news on the lineup front.

Freddy Wills

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Play: Arkansas State -6

Arkansas State is a team that beat Utah State in non-conference and also played Miami and Tennessee. In fact they did not weaken their schedule by playing FCS opponents either. Texas State is still new to the FBS world with 1 of their 5 wins coming against Arkansas PB of the FCS, and the other 4 wins have come against inferior opponents with a record of 8-32. Arkansas State's losses have come against much better opponents. The conference stats also don't lie in this scenario. Both teams like to let the ball fly a little, but Arkansas State is much more polished with 140QB rating in conference play including 12 TD's to 3 INT's. They'll go up against a defense allowing 130QB rating in conference play which isn't bad, but their own QB play has suffered mightily in conference play at 116 QB rating against a much weaker schedule. Arkansas State's pass defense has been amazing allowing 103 QB rating in conference play and only 4 TD's to 8 INT's. I also love the fact that Arkansas State was a 15 point favorite a week ago at home and lost which gives us a bit of value here.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

Scott Spreitzer

North Carolina +6

We went against the Blue Devils last weekend and cashed with Va Tech. We felt Duke was over-valued then and do so again tonight. Duke is one-dimensional on offense, unable to rely on the passing game and the defense can't stop the run, allowing nearly 200 yards rushing per contest. North Carolina QB Marquise Williams can be a nightmare with his ability to escape from trouble. He's passed for more than 2,500 yards this season on 63% passing with 18 TDs. Williams has also rushed for more than 600 yards. He'll keep the Duke defense busy in this one. This is unfamiliar territory in this series for Duke. They aren't used to laying this type of number against the Tar Heels. In fact, Duke was a 5-point underdog last season and pulled out a 27-25 win on a late FG. They won 33-30 as a 10-point underdog in their meeting in 2012. I don't trust them as a 6-point favorite and we'll play against them again this week. I'm grabbing the points with the UNC squad that is still one win away from bowl eligibility with two to go.

Golden Retriever

St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens
Pick: Montreal Canadiens

Montreal opens as an underdog despite having the best record in the league. They are also 8-3 at home, and the visiting St. Louis Blues are 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Canadiens had a six-game winning streak before last dropping a 4-0 decision to the Penguins. They will then play the next 7 of 8 games on the road, so we like them to bounce back before starting the travel.

Xander Locke

Chiefs vs. Raiders
Play: Over 42½

Oakland is giving up 129.8 rushing yards per game. That's 27th in the NFL. Jamaal Charles caught eight passes for a career-high 195 yards and four touchdowns in a 56-31 win at Oakland on Dec. 15. He's recorded seven of his eight rushing touchdowns in the last five games vs Oakland. His teammate Alex Smith threw for 287 yards with five TDs and no interceptions in last season's victory at Oakland. Derek Carr will also have a good game vs KC.

Jim Feist

Chicago at Sacramento
Pick: Over

Chicago has a much better offensive punch than in recent years ranked 12th in scoring. They just put 105 points up on the Clippers and the over is 6-2-1 in the Bulls last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Jimmy Butler led six players in double figures with 22 points in a 105-89 win Monday night, helping Chicago improve to 6-0 on the road. Chicago is on a 13-6-1 run over the total. Sacramento is young and likes to run, 11th in the NBA in scoring, second in rebounds. They just scored 100 on New Orleans but allowed 106, so defense is still a problem. Sacramento is on a 6-2 run over the total and this shapes up as an uptempo game.

Jesse Schule

Florida vs. San Jose
Pick: San Jose

The Florida Panthers have split the first two games of this grueling West Coast road trip, winning in Anaheim and then falling short in a 5-2 defeat at L.A. on Tuesday. They hung in there in a scoreless first period, but the Kings blew the doors off with four goals in the second. We could expect more of the same as they take on the Sharks in San Jose just 48 hours later.

The Sharks return home off from a long seven game road trip, where they went 3-4, losing 4-1 at Buffalo on Tuesday. This is a good spot for the home team to turn things around, facing a Florida club that lacks any real offensive fire power.

The Panthers are averaging just 2.2 goals per game, ranking 28th in the league in scoring. They rely heavily on Roberto Luongo to keep them in games, but he's slumping, coming off back to back losses conceding a total of seven goals in those games.

If in fact Luongo is between the pipes Thursday, he can expect to see a lot of rubber. The Sharks like to shoot the puck, and they average almost 32 shots on goal per game.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Arizona vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas

The Dallas Stars are looking to snap a franchise-record seven home game losing streak while the visiting Arizona Coyotes have two straight road wins. The Stars won the meeting in Arizona on Nov 11 though, and I think they will come out ahead of this contest as well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Overall Fire Power - Neither of these two teams have been able to keep the puck out of their own net as they both rank near the bottom of the table regarding goals against per game. At least the Stars have some offensive firepower to turn to, which I'm not sure you can say about the Coyotes who are averaging only 2.47 goals per game. As a comparison, Tyler Seguin leads the Stars with 24 points for the season while Keith Yandle leads the Coyotes with his two goals and 12 assists.

2. Trends - The Coyotes have lost five of their last six on the road versus a team with a home winning % of less than .400. That doesn't bode well as they've also dropped four straight meetings in Dallas.

3. X-factor - Kari Lehtonen is looking to bounce back after two poor performances and the Coyotes might be a perfect opponent as he's 6-1-0 with a 2.24 GAA in his last seven starts against Arizona.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

River City Sharps

Southern Miss +12

We have this as a 5-7 point game, plenty of padding for the dog in this spot. We are also not big believers in Anthony Grant and even if Alabama gets up by 15 or more, the possibility of the back door always exists with this team. Southern Miss is going to be a pretty solid club in C-USA and these non-BCS conference teams love to play "middle of the pack" schools from the big boy conferences. Simply too many points here tonight and the Golden Eagles will be ready to play.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Kansas State +2.5 over WEST VIRGINIA: The Mountaineers have played well at times at home this year, especially in the big win over Baylor, but they also have lost at home to both TCU and Oklahoma and i can see the Wildcats pulling it off as well. Kansas State comes off a horrible road loss to TCU, but in the past that has just set Bill Snyder up in a good spot as he is 17-1 ATS as a conference dog off a SU & ATS loss. West Virginia is not playing all that well of late as they have lost two in a row, including a 17 point road loss at Texas in their last game and I feel that KSU is head and shoulders above Texas. Kansas State has the better defense and offense in this one and will have their way with a West Virginia squad that just isn't playing all that well right now. KSU by a TD here.

BEST OF THE REST

North Carolina +6 over DUKE: Duke is having a solid year at 8-2, but they have not been all that impressive of late as lost at home last week to a struggling Va Tech team and 3 of their 4 ACC wins have come by a TD or less. Duke has a solid defense, but this is a very strong Carolina offense that has been able to score on everyone this year. We also note that Duke has been outgained by 81.8 ypg in conference play. This is a rivalry game and 3 of the last 4 has been decided by 5 points or less. I expect the same in this one as the Heels are playing a bit better ball than Duke right now.

Arkansas State / Texas State Over 58: Sun Belt teams don’t get the national spotlight too often, but when they do they like to put on a good show and I expect that tonight. Arkansas State has a very good offensive team as they have averaged 34 ppg overall and 40 ppg within the SBC, while in their last 5 games they have put up 42.6 ppg. The Texas State offense has not been great this year, but they have scored 31 ppg on their homefield and will be taking on an Arkansas State squad that has allowed 34 ppg on the road this year. These teams do run more than they throw, but still the offenses are more than capable of putting up 30 or more points vs a couple of defenses that have struggled of late.

EZWINNERS

Kansas St +2.5

The high powered West Virginia offense has not been so potent lately. The Mountaineers have not reached 300 yards of total offense in their last three games and they have lost two of those games straight up. The K-State defense has had a week to recover from the beating that they took against TCU and I expect them to bounce back. The Wildcats have handled West Virginia easily in the last two meetings between these two teams and the K-State defense made things very tough on quarterback Clint Trickett and this Mountaineer offense in last season's 35-12 win. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder has an outstanding record against the spread as an underdog and his teams are 13-0 against the spread off of a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. Take the points.

Drexel +9

I like this spot to fade what I think will be a dangerous Miami team come tournament time after their big win at #8 Florida. The Canes are a bit over valued in this spot against a talented Drexel team that is sitting at 0-2. Bruiser Flint's Dragons were just 16-14 last season, but had major injuries. Junior guard Damion Lee is back after missing most of last year with a knee injury after averaging over 17 points two seasons ago. Drexel should hang around in this afternoon, tournament neutral site game. Miami should struggle to match their intensity that they played with against the Gators. Take the points.

Sleepyj

Detroit / Michigan Over 146.5

Both of these teams will look to run the floor tonight for sure. Detroit's defense will be pressured in this one with Michigan looking to go 3-0. Oregon put up 83 Vs. Detroit and i think Michigan can easily score 80+ in this one today. It's still a little early in the year but the way Michigan can shoot the ball and the pace they run against a lesser team don't be shocked to see them score near 90 tonight. The Michigan ball movement will have them with some easy looks tonight from in the paint. I expect them to have a big game down low and to control the rebound game as well given them second chance points. This will take Detroit out of the game and force them to just play school yard ball here. This game will have a ton of transition points and both teams are athletic enough to make plays on the fly. This will be a tune up game here for the Wolverines because they have Oregon on deck so i expec thtem to pound Detroit for the most part. I think this one goes well over.

Chase Diamond

SMU vs. Indiana
Play: SMU -2.5

This game has the 1-1 SMU at the 2-0 Indiana. SMU lost a tough one at Gonzaga but they are still one of the best teams in College Basketball. Indiana is 2-0 but has not faced anyone that would give them a game like SMU will. SMU is coming off a NIT championship and alot is expected from them they are in year 3 under Larry Brown. SMU has the better team from top to bottom. The public is 50/50 on this game but the line went from 2 to 3 in most spots. Big value here as we get the much better team at a small line.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package