Jimmy Boyd
North Carolina +6
The Tar Heels appear headed on a very similar path to last season, where they finished strong after a slow start. North Carolina opened 2013 just 1-5 and were riding a 4-game losing streak before finishing the year 5-1. They ended up going 5-1 ATS after that slow start last year and are once again showing great value down the stretch. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5, improving to 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in the second half of the season.
You also have to factor in just how competitive the games have been the last two years. Both of the Blue Devils wins over North Carolina came by 3-points or less. Prior to that the Tar Heels had won the previous 8. North Carolina would love nothing more to spoil the Blue Devils hopes of winning back-to-back Coastal Titles and they should also be motivated to get their sixth win to make them bowl eligible.
One of the big reasons for the Tar Heels slow start this year, is they played a difficult schedule early. Their 4-game losing streak came in a stretch where they faced the likes of East Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame with three of the four on the road. Duke on the other hand has played one of the easier schedules in the country. Their 4 non-conference games came against the likes of Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane.
When you just look at the five common opponents that these two teams have faced (Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt and Virginia Tech), you can really see how there’s not a lot that separates these two teams. In fact, you could argue that the Tar Heels have been more impressive. Both went 3-2 with each losing to the Hurricanes and Hokies. North Carolina was outgained in those games by an average of 78.4 ypg, while Duke was outgained by 105.2 ypg.
Brandon Shively
Drexel vs. Miami
Play: -9½
This game is being played on a neutral so we are getting a favorable line with Miami FL this afternoon. I had Miami FL on Monday night vs. the Gators and they cashed the ticket winning straight up.
Miami FL adds in super transfers Rodriguez and McClellan who are averaging 34 ppg/ 8 rpg/ 6.5 apg/ 4 spg. Yes, these two guys are filling up the stats sheets and this gives HC Larranaga the guards that can play with anybody in the league. They will often run a 3 guard lineup and use their quickness as their strength. The Hurricanes have a true 7 footer down low as well though. Through two games, the Hurricanes are allowing 58 ppg as their defense is still one of the best, carrying over from last year.
For Drexel, the losses are huge for them this season and it has been apparent as they have yet to top 50 points in a game. They lost 52-49 to Saint Joes and this loss looks terrible and Saint Joes just got beat by Gonzaga by 52 points last night. As a team they are shooting 31.5% from the floor and have gotten outrebounded in both games. They are lacking serious depth as well as 4 starters are averaging 30+ minutes a game.
Miami will be able to play their usual tenacious defense, force turnovers, and wear this Drexel team out. They have all the key advantages in this game and I am looking for a final score in the 65-49 range for an easy cover for Miami FL.
Bryan Power
Florida Atlantic vs. Harvard
Pick: Harvard
The Crimson should be out for blood here after a shocking loss to Holy Cross over the weekend knocked them out of the Top 25. It was a shockingly bad performance from a typically fundamentally sound bunch as they turned the ball over 24 times, a big reason they lost despite holding HC to under 40 percent shooting,
This is also a revenge spot for Harvard, who lost to Florida Atlantic last year by a score of 68-53 despite coming in as 9.5-point favorites. This time they are at home and despite laying a big number, they are more than capable of covering.
Going back to the end of last season, FAU has failed to cover the spread in its last eight lined games. They are off a 74-49 win over Warner Southern, but there was no line there. The Owls lost the opener 64-58 at Elon as 1.5-point dogs. They are just the wrong team in the wrong place here and I expect a blowout.
Mike Rose
North Carolina at Duke
Pick: North Carolina
Analysis: Duke has beaten NC by 3 points or less in each of the last two years and another close contest is anticipated this Thursday night. The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win and while their defense is deficient, I expect another strong game from their offense to give them a shot at victory. Duke is disciplined and very well-coached by David Cutcliffe as the #2 least-penalized team in the league. They suffered their first home loss in their last eight home games last week, and the under is now 8-1 in Duke’s last nine ACC games. Tough to play the under in this contest as spotty as the Heels defense has been to date, so we’ll take the points offered with North Carolina in this rivalry game instead.
Wunderdog
Texas vs. Iowa
Pick:Under 149
The 2K Classic at the Garden will feature a pair of ranked teams in #10 Texas squaring off vs. #25 Iowa. This game should be a hard fought battle. Playing under the bright lights of the Garden early in the season, adjusting to nerves, and unfamiliar shooting backgrounds, along with a high intensity on the defensive end could very well leave these teams short of the total. Iowa has been stingy vs. their two opponents, allowing 56 points in both games, while Texas has allowed 50 and 53 points to their two opening season opponents. They will certainly be defending better offenses here, but the early games is a testament of both teams' will to defend, and this situation should magnify that. Texas has played to a 9-4 mark to the UNDER in their last 13 at a neutral site, and Iowa has been 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five at a neutral site. This one doesn't get there, so the play on the UNDER.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City / Oakland Under 43: This game will feature two running teams that play at a very slow pace and while one defenses isn't great, the other one is. Overall the Raiders offense is pathetic as they come in averaging just 15.2 ppg, which is last in the league. They are also last in total yards and rushing, while ranking 26th in passing. This is not a good offense and i surely don't expect them to break through vs a very tough that is 1st in the league vs the pass and 2nd in points allowed, giving up just 17.1 ppg. The Chiefs can be run on with the 25th ranked run defense and that should be the way the Raiders will have to attack them, which will keep that clock moving. The Chiefs are 31st in passing, but 4th in rushing and that is their primary method of moving the ball and should be able to on the 27th ranked Raiders run defense. Lets also note that the Under is 18-6 the last 24 meetings and 7-2 the last 9 meetings in Oakland. Both teams are conservative on offense and with all the running and a very good Chiefs defense of the Chiefs this game should be played in the lower 30s.
Greg Shaker
Texas State +7
This number has climbed to 7 at a number of spots including Bovada, Sportsbook.com, LVH, Bookmaker, and others and time to get it. We do like it at 6.5 as well and in fact will be putting a few $$'s on the moneyline. Bad spot for the travelers on the short week and after losing some key people last week on defense including their best pass rusher. Easy decision here.
Tony George
Kansas State +2.5
K State and Bill Snyder off a loss, oh yes! Well Bill Snyder and the Wildcats will not lose 2 in a row and the old fashion, clock eating , physical type ball that K State plays does not play well into the hands of high flying and undisciplined West Virginia Mountaineers.
No doubt the Mountaineers are tough at home, this is a brutal road trip for any team from the Big 12 to make and they have knocked off Baylor in here and played every team tough in at home to date, and this one will be no different. K State has had added time to prepare, and with a big game and added time to prepare, there no better coach in America than Bill Snyder to get his team back on track after a huge setback to TCU, where speed killed them.
While the spread attack and a mobile QB does match up well for K State, the pocket passing of QB Trickett does, and I fully expect K State to be able to run the ball tonight as well, and I like QB Waters for K State to have a big day with legs as well as play action passing
K State under Bill Snyder in his second coming as head coach is an impressive 23-10 ATS in the underdog role. I trust Snyder to out coach his opponent on a Thursday Night Game, and last time K State played on Thursday they took Auburn to the wire in a game they should have won if not for 3 missed field goals. Traditional style football versus wide open football, I will take a cagey head coach to keep his team in this and get a close hard fought win.
Harry Bondi
NORTH CAROLINA (+6) over Duke
We wrote in our Quick Slants Column last week that after getting off to an 8-1 start, Duke was a bit overrated and that we would be looking for opportunities to go against it down the stretch. Sure enough, the Blue Devils (-4) lost outright to Virginia Tech on Saturday and tonight looks like an equally great spot to fade them. A primary problem for Duke is its inability to stop the run on defense. That doesn't bode well tonight against NC's dynamic QB Marquise Williams and a Tar Heel offense that is averaging 36 points per game. NC has won three of its last four games after a 1-4 start and is back in bowl contention. Look for them to get one step closer to that goal tonight.
The Real Animal
North Carolina +5
I think UNC is really a dangerous team for Duke. I know the Blue Devils are off a home loss and that should put them in a good spot tonight. But I hate laying points with this team. They barely beat Virginia 20-13 at home a month ago and were out-gained 465-334 in the process. UVA offense stinks. They won a high-scoring shootout at Pittsburgh but allowed over 600-yards of offense. Last week they could only complete 19-of-41 against Virginia Tech at home and only scored 16-points. UNC can score/match points with anybody. The fact the Tar Heels beat Georgia Tech and only lost at South Bend by a touchdown scoring 43 tells me they have no quit in them. Plus they’ve won three of the last four. Think the UNC seniors want this game? They’ve lost to Duke 27-25 and 33-30 the last two years and lost turnovers 2-1 in both. Speaking of miscues, Duke had three of them last week. Curiously Coach Cutcliffe teams are only 1-10 ATS at home versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 yards or more. North Carolina is 10-1 straight-up in the last 11 meetings on this field. If Pitt can score 48 points and run up over 600 yards of offense on Duke, I can’t imagine the kind of damage UNC QB Williams can inflict on this defense. I’ll take the points tonight and anticipate a very close game.
LT Profits
Kansas State vs West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia -2.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers are still the only team to beat Baylor this season and we now look for them to knock off another ranked team in the 12th ranked Kansas State Wildcats, again at one of the most difficult venues in the county for visiting teams in Morgantown. Both teams come off a bye, but in the case of the Wildcats, they come off a discouraging 41-20 loss at TCU that knocked them out of College Football Playoff contention. Kansas State is not flashy but usually does enough to win, but that approach did not work vs. a high powered offense in TCU and does not figure to work here. West Virginia is 12th in the nation in total offense with 502.2 yards per game, averaging 34.1 points, and we do not expect Kansas State to keep pace. West Virginia is 4-1 ATS its last five games vs. teams with winning records.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas State +120 over WEST VIRGINIA
Both Kansas State and West Virginia enter on low notes with West Virginia perhaps being the lower of the two after losing two straight including its last game at Texas by 17 points to a Longhorns’ team in rebuild mode. Bill Snyder's Wildcats are coming off a bye after the ‘Cats were thumped on the road 41-20, at the hands of the now top-five ranked TCU Horned Frogs. Seemingly the barometer of measure for both teams is how they fared against that fabled Big-12 leader. West Virginia lost narrowly on a last-second field goal that allowed TCU to escape 31-30. However, numbers lie and this same rationale was applied to many predictions of the outcome of the aforementioned TCU/West Virginia contest. TCU had lost to Baylor on the road by three (61-58) while West Virginia defeated Baylor in Morgantown by two touchdowns (41-27). By virtue of this, an assumption emerged that West Virginia would defeat TCU but that was proven to be a falsehood.
So let's throw away the numbers and look at the current scenario. West Virginia is currently riding a two-game losing streak. Seemingly all the hot air has been let out of this ballooning Mountaineers offense. Much has been said about the Mountaineers shut down defense but we’re not buying that either. The Mountaineers' defensive resume is built on shutting down the sad-sack offenses of Towson and Kansas, plus an upset of a Baylor team that turned in the sloppiest, most self-destructive and unfocused performance of the Art Briles era. Prior to that, the other five opponents on West Virginia's schedule? By their own standards, all of them had well-above average days against a Mountaineers defense that the overall season stats claim is a solid unit. Four defenses have held down each of Alabama, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma better than West Virginia's did. Five defenses had better days against Maryland, six against Texas Tech. Don't get fooled into thinking that West Virginia is some complete team ready to contend for anything beyond a minor bowl berth. This bunch is more likely to lose the rest of their games than win even one more.
Kansas State on the other hand, has an outside opportunity to still vie for a Big-12 title if a few things go its way. Furthermore, the Cats can still potentially win out and earn a bid to a New Years' Six bowl game and that incentive is enough to keep this fiery Kansas State team motivated. The ‘Cats have had a week to recover and know they can win on the road, as they were able to knock off Oklahoma in a 31-30 stunner. Kansas State's own rushing attack is pretty pedestrian and to bag a road win Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett will have to carve up the Mountaineers through the air and that’s precisely what we’re suggesting will take place. A fair fight this is not and so we’ll play the Wildcats outright.
Pass NFL
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +120 over Minnesota
OT included. After a rough stretch that saw them lose four in a row, Minnesota bounced back with three consecutive wins. That’s nice but those three wins came against Buffalo, in Dallas where the Stars have one home win in 10 games and finally at home against Winnipeg. For the Jets, that was their final game of a five game trip and it was also an early start after Winnipeg played the previous night in Nashville. Winnipeg was dead tired but rallied from three down to force OT before losing it. None of those last three Wild wins were impressive. Minnesota is 3-5 against top-16-teams and 1-2 against top-10 teams. When they dropped four straight recently, they scored three times over that span. Minnesota has allowed three goals or more in nine of its past 11 games. This is a team that plays solid defensively but has little offense and really poor goaltending. The Flyers have enough snipers to make life miserable for Darcy Kuemper.
Philly lost in New York last night by a score of 2-0 to run its losing streak to three games. That has their stock low, which makes us buyers. What we know for sure is that the Flyers have two of the best lines in the NHL and maybe the best overall line with Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Brayden Schenn. Kuemper is not capable of holding Philadelphia’s top six off the scoreboard. Philly has issues, mainly on defense and inconsistent goaltending but neither has to be great here because Minnesota can run cold offensively for long stretches that last several games at a time. Minnesota’s three wins in succession combined with Philly’s three losses in succession has us taking back an inflated price here and that’s something we usually don’t pass up on. Minnesota is simply very beatable when facing a potent offense and that applies here.
Tampa Bay -½ +132 over TORONTO
Regulation only. There’s nothing we can say about the Maple Leafs that hasn’t already been stated since they dropped a 9-2 decision to the Predators on Tuesday. Thing is, we were telling you long before that just how bad these Leafs are. Toronto figures to respond tonight but it’s hard to envision these Leafs being anything but tentative tonight for fear of making the same mistakes that led to nine goals against. The Leafs would be much better served on the road but that’s not the case here. Instead, heavy media and fan scrutiny is just waiting to pounce on these guys again and that’s extremely difficult conditions to perform well under. The Leafs aren’t as bad as their last two games suggest but they are not even close to being anywhere near in the same class of the Lightning and Toronto could not have picked a worse time to face them.
Unfortunately for the Maple leafs, Tampa Bay is coming off a 5-2 loss to the Islanders. The Bolts lost by that score because they gave Ben Bishop a rest in favor of Islanders castoff, Evgeni Nabokov. Nabokov allowed all five goals on 36 shots for a save percentage of .861. Tampa is now 13-7. After their first loss of the year in its third game of the season, the Bolts responded with a 7-1 victory over Montreal. After subsequent losses, the Bolts responded with a 4-2 win over Vancouver, a 2-1 win in Calgary, a 7-3 victory over Arizona and a 5-2 win over the Islanders. They have not lost two games in succession in regulation time this year and the have only lost back-to-back games once this season. In five games against the top-10 teams, the Bolts are 5-2 with only losses occurring against Chicago in OT and that aforementioned loss to the Islanders. Of their 5 regulation losses, Nabokov has been in net for three of them. The Bolts are loaded from top to bottom with perhaps the deepest group of forwards in the league and a defense that can compete on the same level as any team in the league. Tampa has few flaws, if any and they’ll now play a mentally defeated Leafs’ team that is full of nothing but flaws. Pencil us in for that.
St. Louis -½ +141 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. The Canadiens recently reeled off six wins in a row before losing to the Penguins in their last game 4-0. At the start of that six-game winning streak they outscored their first four opponents 14-3 but we’re seeing signs of things turning for the worse. Prior to losing 4-0 to Pittsburgh, Montreal defeated Philly and Detroit but the Flyers scored three times and outshot the Habs while Detroit outshot them 29-19. Montreal is a very impressive 14-6 but against top-10 teams they are just 2-5. Furthermore, many of the Habs’ earlier wins were the direct result of great goaltending and plenty of luck. The Canadiens rank 19th in shots allowed and they rank 18th in goals allowed in 5 on 5 play. This is a .500 team whose record will regress because all the numbers say so.
The Blue Notes are coming off a 2-0 loss in Boston. Had it not been for Tuukka Rask, St. Louis would have won 9-2. They played the entire game in Boston’s end and outshot the B’s 33-17. The Blue Notes have been outshot twice over their past 14 games. They’ve won 10 of their past 12 games and scored 14 goals over three games before getting stonewalled by Rask. The Blues will go with Jake Allen in net tonight. Allen is 5-1 overall with a save percentage of .933 (Carey Price’s save % is .914). It’s also worth noting that Allen played his junior hockey in Montreal and grew up there. No question he’ll be extra jacked up here and his teammates also know how important this game is for him. St. Louis rarely plays in Montreal. They’ve only played here three times since 2008. They have 12 Canadians on the team with three of those being from Quebec. A jacked-up and vastly superior St. Louis team figures to put forth an outstanding effort and outplay the Canadiens by a wide margin. That’s worth a bet.
Florida +157 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Panthers are a feisty group loaded with young talent that is going to be a force to reckon with sometime in the next two to three years. The Panthers are just 6-10 but half of those 10 losses occurred in extra time. They have lost just five games this season in regulation and they also have recent wins over both Anaheim and these same Sharks by a combined score of 10-3. In fact, the Panthers have lost just once in regulation over their past four and that occurred in Los Angeles against the Kings. That said, this one is more about fading the Sharks upon returning home from an absolute grueling trip.
San Jose hit the road on November 8th in Dallas and proceeded to play seven straight games on the road that ended in Buffalo on Tuesday. They weren’t even sure if that game was going to get played because the city was shut down after getting buried in a brutal snowstorm. That’s seven road games in 12 days and now the Sharks will play their eight game in 14 days in which they had to travel to get to their next destination in all of them. If San Jose isn’t flat tonight, they’ll almost surely be flat on Saturday when they host the Coyotes. The Sharks will be a big favorite against Arizona as well. This wager is based on San Jose either losing this game or the next because it’s just so rare for any team to come home from such a grueling trip and reel off back-to-back wins. So, if San Jose wins tonight, we’ll fade them on Saturday and expect to profit from them losing one of those two games.
Prophet Plays
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +7.5
Certainly hard to pick against the surging Chiefs who hit the Black Hole with wins and covers in all 5 of their games since their bye week. Kansas City is also on a 12-1 against the spread run their last 13 regular season road games with Andy Reid at the helm! Problem is, this line may be just too high, as the desperate Raiders have now lost 16 in a row straight up, but have been playing some gritty defense for interim coach Tony Sparano, covering in 2 of their last 3 with the points. The Chiefs swept the pair of meetings last season, but had lost 5 of the previous 6 to the Raiders. The underdog is a highly-profitable 11-3 the last 14 times these teams have clashed, and with Kansas City hosting a pretty big division showdown with the Broncos next weekend, I can see the Chiefs slipping up against the spread in this one. Take OAKLAND with the generous points
Larry Ness
Ducks at Canucks
Pick: Under
Anaheim continues to struggle as the Ducks are 1-1-5 in their last seven contests after losing a 4-3 contest in Calgary on Tuesday in the shootout. Despite that game finishing over the number, the under remains 4-1-1 in the Ducks' last six contests. The under is also 6-2-1 in Anaheim's last nine games against teams with a winning record. Look for Frederik Andersen to be in net again tonight with his nice 2.13 goals-against-average along with a .920 save percentage. Vancouver has won three of its last four games after a 5-4 win in Edmonton last night. Despite that game finishing over the total, the under is 5-2-1 in the Canucks' last eight games following a victory. With Ryan Miller in net last night, there is a good chance backup Eddie Lack will be between the pipes tonight. Lack's last appearance was back on November 9th when he faced this same Anaheim team where he made 28 saves along with key blocks in the shootout to secure a 2-1 victory for his team. Look for another low scoring game tonight and take the under.