Bruce Marshall
Florida Atlantic at Harvard
Pick: Harvard
Harvard was in a tough scheduling spot when losing in Boca Raton last season, having played a cross-country schedule in first half of the season and simply flat for that game vs. aroused FAU. But let's see the Owls do it again, as the properly focused Crimson gain revenge with key returnees swingman Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg) and G Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg) back in the mix from Tommy Amaker's latest Big Dance qualifier.
Jack Jones
Kansas State +2.5
The Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) are still very much alive for a Big 12 Title even with their loss to TCU. It was their first conference loss of the season, and if they win out, they would win at least a share of the Big 12 championship. That will be plenty of motivation for them the rest of the way as they look to regroup from that tough road loss to the Horned Frogs.
West Virginia (6-4) is in a much different situation. It has already clinched a bowl berth with six wins this season, but it is guaranteed not to finish any better than in the middle of the pack in the Big 12. The Mountaineers could find it hard to be motivated for their final two games as a result.
This Kansas State team is the real deal with both of its losses coming to Top 10 teams in TCU and Auburn. It is scoring 36.2 points per game and averaging 422.6 yards per game on offense. Its defense has allowed just 21.1 points per game and 346.9 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider opposing offense average 30.0 points and 415 yards per game, so it is holding the opposition to 8.9 points and 68 yards per game below their season averages.
The Mountaineers are deflated right now after losing back-to-back games to TCU and Texas. Their 16-33 loss to the Longhorns last time out was their worst performance of the year, and that effort shows that they may not be 100% focused for this stretch run. Both TCU and Oklahoma have went into West Virginia and won, so I believe that Kansas State is fully capable of doing the same.
A great way to compare teams is common opponents. Both Kansas State and West Virginia have played the same five teams this year. Kansas State is 4-1 against those teams, outscoring them by 13.8 points per game. West Virginia is 2-3 against those teams, getting outscored by 0.6 points per game against them.
The Wildcats have dominated the Mountaineers in their two meetings over the past two seasons. They won 55-14 at West Virginia in 2012 while outgaining them 479-243 for the game. They also won 35-12 at home last year and outgained them 448-367 for the game. They clearly have this WVU offense figured out.
Bill Snyder is a perfect 13-0 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 or more points to a conference opponent in all games he has coached since 1992. Kansas State is 16-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Dana Holgorsen is 1-8 ATS following a bye as the coach of West Virginia. Getting Snyder and the Wildcats as a dog in this bounce-back spot is a gift from the oddsmakers.
Dave Price
Iowa +4.5
I'll take the points with Iowa in a game I expect to go right down to the wire. There is some very strong history in support of this play. Consider that neutral court teams in the first five games of the season, like Iowa, that closed out last season with four or more consecutive ATS losses, in a game involving teams that had winning records last season, are 23-4 ATS the last five seasons and a perfect 9-0 ATS the last three seasons. Texas has been good defensively in its first two games, but the fact it hasn't forced many turnovers against inferior competition is cause for concern. In fact, Texas is 0-7 ATS the last three seasons in games played away from home following a game where it forced eight turnovers or less. The Iowa defense has really shined in the early going. The Hawkeyes have held their first two opponents to low shooting percentage while also forcing some turnovers - they've forced 14 more than Texas. It is also worth mentioning that Iowa is 18-1 ATS the last three seasons after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games.
Oliver Alonso
Florida Atlantic vs. Harvard
Play: Harvard -16
The Harvard Crimson also split their first two games with a win over MIT and a loss to Holy Cross. On the season, Harvard is averaging 65 points on 49.5 percent shooting and is allowing 55 points on 39.8 percent shooting. Wesley Saunders is Harvard’s go-to guy offensively with an average of 19.5 points on 56.5 percent shooting, and Siyani Chambers leads the way with five assists and eight points. Jonah Travis is averaging 8.5 points and Steve Moundou-Missi is 7-15 from the field in the first two games. The Harvard Crimson are as balanced of a team as they come in the Ivy League and is extremely experienced and smart. Harvard is the favorite to win its conference and make yet another trip to the NCAA tournament.
There will be some added motivation for the Crimson as one of their four regular season losses came at Florida Atlantic and it was the worst one of the season as they went down by 15 points. The Owls won their last game which was basically a glorified exhibition against Warner University. That came after losing at Elon in their season opener where they shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic is a very young team that has only two seniors that play while featuring five players that are either freshmen or sophomores that see extended playing time. The Owls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 20 points while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less.
Steve Janus
Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5
The Hawkeyes may have lost their leading scorer from last year in Roy Marble, but Fran McCaffery's team is every bit as good this year as they were in 2013-14. Iowa is simply not getting the respect they deserve early after falling apart down the stretch of last year. The Hawkeyes have the depth and length to make things uncomfortable for the Longhorns. Both of these teams are 2-0 with a win over North Dakota State. Texas beat North Dakota State 85-50, while Iowa won 90-56. These are two equally matched teams. This line should be a lot close to a pick'em than a 4.5-point spread, but the line is inflated in favor of the Longhorns because they are ranked No. 10 and the Hawkeyes are unranked. The betting public will almost always blindly take the ranked team over a non-ranked team with a small line like this. Don't fall for the trap!
System - Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games are 36-11 (77%) ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years.
Doug Upstone
Bucknell vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -20
Play On home favorites of 20 or more points like VILLANOVA off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season. This is not hard to figure, a veteran cast whose been playing with each other and has the go ahead from the sportsbooks to supply another big victory. In the last 17 year, teams like the Wildcats are 37-12 ATS.
Joe Gavazzi
North Carolina +6
Favoring the rivalry underdog call, despite statistical and technical evidence pointing the other way! On the negative side of this handicap, is the fact that Duke is recently 18-6 ATS, stands 8-2 SU for the season, and though coming off a home loss to VA Tech, still controls their fate in the division race. Conversely, N. Carolina is a Defensive Dud, allowing 41 PPG, 512 YPG and 6.5 YP play. But, they play with momentum following their 40-35 come from behind victory vs. Pitt last week. That evened the record at 5-5 SU, meaning a victory today qualifies them as Bowl eligible. Though Duke continues to win games, it is not often that you find an 8-2 SU team who holds a mere 396-390 yardage edge against their opponents. Blue Devil defense allowing at least 192 YPG, both running and passing, can be had by the rival avenging Tar Heel, whose offense averages 36 PPG on 430 YPG. Keep an eye out for my rare Thursday Night Top Play in Kansas St. as well as an Under the Radar Bet for tomorrow! Best of luck to all this weekend.
Sam Martin
Kansas St. at West Virginia
Prediction: Kansas St.
Both of these teams have had time to recover from big losses the last time they took the field, with Kansas State getting blown out by TCU and therefore crushing their hopes of a Big 12 Championship, while West Virginia suffered an embarrassing loss at Texas. That has both of these teams in a letdown, but we'll back Kansas State as the more likely team to right the ship.
Wildcats were in a bad matchup against the Horned Frogs, but match up better against this West Virginia team. Wildcats couldn't run the ball against TCU, but now go up against a Mountaineers defense that has has given up 194, 223, and 227 yards rushing in their last three games. And the expected cold temperatures put a heavier emphasis on the running game for both teams - which in turn takes away some of the life of WVU's passing attack. Vegas begging for action on the home side with this small line, but we'll back the visitor to win outright.
OC Dooley
Sharks -165
This is almost the same exact setup as last night’s Best Bet in the NBA when the Minnesota Timberwolves in just their third HOME game of the campaign (-1’) easily covered the spread in a SIXTEEN point margin of victory. Out of all hockey squads across the country it is San Jose who the most “road laden” schedule and 10 of the most recent 13 contests have been on “enemy” ice. Back on Tuesday of this week San Jose wrapped up a marathon seven-game trip suffering a 4-1 defeat against hockey’s worst side (Buffalo Sabres). Most reading this analysis are most likely aware of the record snow-fall in the Buffalo area which has already caused a Sunday NFL cancellation. Not only did San Jose suffer a humiliating defeat on Tuesday they failed against a Buffalo contingent whose lead scorer was NOT able to attend the arena after literally being “snowed in” beneath 3 feet of snow. San Jose started the season ranked #4 leaguewide on the Power Play but in part due to the grind of five consecutive games on the road they are on a 1-for-13 skid with the extra-man advantage. Visting Florida’s most recent four defeats have come even though the team had an advantage in overall shots on goal which in itself indicates serious problems. Back on Tuesday on the highway versus defending Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles the Panthers suffered a 5-2 defeat. In the past three years following a blowout loss of 3+ goals in margin Florida has gone a dreadful “7-20” and I am looking for that trend to continue versus a San Jose contingent with a rare HOME outing