Dave Cokin Sports
Rice vs UAB
Pick: Rice -18
All three of the Thursday night football games have one thing in common. There’s plenty on the line for one of the teams in each game, and nothing but pride for each of the opponents. I’ll focus on the Rice-UAB game to try and earn a profit tonight.
Rice needs some help to get there, but they’re still breathing for a chance to win their division and make it to the CUSA title game. The Owls have to win their two remaining games and hope North Texas lets one get away. Rice should certainly have no problem holding up their end of the bargain tonight, and a win would also at least create some pressure for the Mean Green on Saturday.
This should not be a competitive game. UAB is a really bad football team, especially on the defensive side of the football. The Blazers cannot stop anything, either on the ground or through the air. I don’t doubt that UAB can score some TD’s tonight, but the Blazers are also a good bet to give up 50 points.
Rice isn’t the most trustworthy outfit on the planet, as they’ve struggled in a couple of games they should have won comfortably, But the Owls are playing pretty good ball right now, and they’ve won the stats convincingly in each of their last four games.
I think the key tonight, as far as the spread is concerned, is Rice’s ability to hang on to the football. If they avoid turnovers, they’re going to put a pile of points up tonight. If they drop the pigskin, they might be in for more of a fight. Handicapping turnovers is pretty random, so I’ll act under the assumption that they don’t kill themselves with unforced errors.
Teams that run the football for 200 yards per game do very well late in the season when facing teams that surrender that number overland. Rice fits on that stat, and stated simply, this game should matter to them, while it’s just a play out the string contest for the lowly Blazers. It’s a big spread, but the only way I can play is with Rice minus the points.
Tom Barton
Colorado vs UC Santa Barbara
Pick: Over 144
The Buffalos have been running wild offensively to begin the season and they should continue here. Colroado was one of mine and many other sleeper picks of the college season in part because of their leadership and scoring ability they showed glimpses of last year. The Buffs seem to have put it all together in the early going. Colorado has scored 90+ in 3 of the last 4 games and on the year are averaging over 80 per game. You can argue they have nt played elite competition but the fact is when you can get 40 rebounds per game you will score at will. The Gauchos are averaging 75 per game and they have already had a huge victory over UNLV to start the year off. Santa Barbara is in the top 30 in assists per game and don't mind the travel as they showed against the Rebels. I see the Buffs once again scoring into the 80's here while the Gauchos should be good for 70. The Gauchos star center is out for this game as well.
Bryan Leonard
Wofford +17.5
The Terriers are an experienced team coming off a bad season. But we like the way Mike Young's team plays defense and we believe they will have success near the basket, which has been a defensive problem for Minnesota in the early going. With a slower paced game the high pointspread is likely to come into affect here. Minnesota has a statement game on deck at Syracuse and the Gophers will be without Joey King, one of their starters. That means little used players will need to see extended minutes.
Wunderdog
Colorado at Phoenix
Pick: Colorado +116
The Colorado Avalanche have been playing a lot better than most expected. This team is 15-5 and has done a great job on the road where they own a 6-2 record. They snapped a three-game losing streak with a huge win at home vs. Chicago, and should have their heads on right heading to Phoenix. Phoenix is 9-0-1 to start the season so it is likely the Avalanche come in hear with full focus. Colorado has been at their best off of a win where they are 12-3 in their last 15. The Coyotes are just 3-7 in their last 10 vs. an opponent that scored 5+ in their previous game. Take Colorado.
Joe Gavazzi
Rice -18
The Owls as nearly 3 TD road chalk. Are you kidding? But, it is warranted. For these are truly two teams headed opposite directions. With 4 consecutive losses, including 63-14 last week at E. Carolina in which they allowed 625 yards, the Blazers have now lost 4 consecutive games, stand 2-8 SU on the season, and have tossed the towel. They are 5-12 ATS on the run and have a 43 point defense. Rice is still in the hunt for the CUSA West title. With one of the most experienced teams in the nation, the Owls are 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS and 5-1 SU in CUSA play. That makes their total run currently 13-4 ATS. At the beginning of the season, this game would have been at a “Pick” range. As a result, the adjustments have been made, but not to the point where one should consider backing UAB.
Carlos Salazar
Saints at Falcons
Play: Under 53.5
Carlos has you covered for another Thursday night winner and he's saying the UNDER is your best NFL bet of the day. The Saints and Falcons have gone under the number the last two times they played. The Falcons offense has all but disappeared the past four games averaging just 15.3 points per game. Bet the Under with confidence.
Alex Smith Sports
Nashville at Toronto
Pick: Over
The Preds, riding their rookie goalie Marek Manzanec, head north to take on a Maple Leafs team who have heated up with some home cooking, winning their last 2 games and scoring 9 goals after losing their previous 3 away from Toronto. Both teams come in with 2 game win streaks after long losing streaks, I like for both clubs to come in hot and go over the total
Charlie Sports
Denver Nuggets +1
The 6-3 Chicago Bulls of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the 4-6 Denver Nuggets of the Western Conference Northwest division in 2013 NBA action. The over is 3-0-1 the last 4 meetings between the teams. Chicago is 4-1 Against The Spread their last 5 NBA games overall and 1-5 ATS their last 6 played in Denver. The over is 10-4 the last 14 meetings between the teams. Denver gets the home cover.
Sean Murphy
Long Beach St. vs. Michigan
Pick: Long Beach St.
Long Beach State is still searching for its first win against a Division I opponent this season. Keep in mind, the 49ers are the three-time reigning Big West champions. Yes, they're working in some new faces after losing considerable talent from last year's team, but I believe they'll give highly favored Michigan a run on Thursday.
The Wolverines welcomed Mitch McGary back from injury last Sunday, but still fell by seven points at upstart Iowa State. The Wolverines once again send a supremely talented squad to the floor, but perhaps not quite as strong as we've seen in the last couple of years - at least not yet. It's going to take some time for this team to truly come together, and I'm not sure an easy win is in the cards in this tournament opener in the Carribean on Thursday.
Note that Michigan has slowly gotten away from its preferred pace in the early going this season, most recently hoisting up 69 FG attempts in its loss to Iowa State. I believe that tempo favors Long Beach State in this one.
The cupboard is by no means bare for the 49ers. They remain an excellent scoring and rebounding team, even if we haven't seen evidence of that over the last few games. They've scheduled themselves a tough early slate, having already faced Arizona and Kansas State on the road. This neutral court matchup against Michigan doesn't represent their toughest test of the season to date.
Neither team has posted an ATS win this season, so something has to give on Thursday. I'm just not sure the Wolverines are ready to lay this many points against a quality, well-coached opponent just yet.
Jimmy Boyd
South Dakota State +8
In their only game against a decent opponent the Texas Tech Red Raiders were crushed by 12-points. This is a Red Raiders team that finished last season losing 20 games, and they have struggled to get by three very soft opponents to start the season. South Dakota State on the other hand was a 25 game winner and king of the Summit League conference.
This is simply too many points for the Red Raiders to cover. South Dakota State has played a very strong schedule this year. They lost to Loyola-Marymount by nine points, but the Jackrabbits played a good game. They simply fell victim to ridiculously good shooting from the Lions. That changes today as the Red Raiders face a very evenly matched opponent. Texas Tech may win this game, but it is a game that should come down to one of the final possessions.
Ray Monohan
Chicago Bulls -1
After a less than ideal start the Bulls are playing much better having won their last 5 games in a row - including dealing the Indiana Pacers their first loss of the season. Going into Denver can be a challenge but the Bulls should be fresh having not played since Monday night. This is the beginning of a long West Coast trip for Chicago, who might be better off not relying on PG Derrick Rose as much as they were to start the season. It won’t make them a championship contender to have him as the third option but that is no problem for coming into town and beating a struggling Nuggets team.
Rickie Robbins
Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Play: Rutgers +17½
UCF is averaging 35.2 PPG and Rutgers is averaging 28.2 ppg. UCF's defense is yielding only 20.6 ppg this season. Rutgers is giving up 35.4 ppg. Here are some key stats. Rutgers has only allowed 110.9 rush yards per game (12th in the country.)Rutgers has struggled with the pass, yielding 20.9 passes completed per game on average. The good news is UCF is about even at 20.7.
On a neutral field, UCF should be only a 7-point favorite. Add in their home-field advantage of about 3-5 points, and another 2 points for the Thursday-night environment, and we’re still only at 14 points. This game is zipping past 17.5. UCF has covered only one of four games when favored by 9 points or more this season, including failing to cover their past two games.
Dave Price
Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Bulls have struggled on the road where they are 1-3 SU and ATS. The Nuggets have won three in a row at home where they have had plenty of success against Chicago. They have won six straight at home in the series and four straight overall. Chicago has struggled in the role of favorite, going just 19-32 ATS the last 51 times it's been laying points. Plus, Denver has made rather easy work of good teams like Chicago at home. Consider that the Nuggets are on an 11-1 ATS run in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 points per game or more. They have won these contests by an average score of 106.5 to 98.0. Take Denver.
Jeff Alexander
Wofford +18
This experienced Wofford squad, which brought back all 5 starters, isn't getting quite the respect it deserves against a Minnesota club that lost three starters and is still adjusting to a new coach. The Golden Gophers just played Tuesday so this is a quick turnaround. Wofford, meanwhile, has had 4 days of preparation time. The Terriers are on an impressive 83-66 ATS run in lined road contests, and this trend tightens up to 68-49 ATS when they're listed as an underdog or pickem. Bet Wofford.
Brandon Shively
Middle Tennessee St vs. Florida
Play: Under 136½
Florida won this game last year 66-45, but this is a different starting 5 for the Gators this year. Florida's Kenny Boynton had 20 points in the game last year and he is gone. MTSU's key guards from last year have graduated and the replacements will have a hard time scoring on this SEC defense. Also, MTSU only shot 32% from the floor as a team and the Gators still thrive on defense as opponents are only shooting 39% from the field in this early season. Florida's Scottie Wilbekin is still suspended as the Gators now have 4 guards that are not playing tonight and I expect scoring to be hard to come by from both teams.
Trends:
Under is 12-2 in MTSU last 14 vs. Southeastern.
Under is 12-3 in FLA last 15 overall.
Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -17½
Rutgers come into this game with at least 8 players on the injury report that are not expected to play as the Scarlet Knights have been battling injuries all year long. The defensive injuries were apparent last week as Cincinnati outgained them by 262 yards. Rutgers secondary is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete passes this year at a 66% rate and that is bad news playing vs. an experienced UCF team with skilled position players. Asking Rutgers who is now playing on a short week against a UCF team who could easily be undefeated this year if not for the loss to South Carolina is a tough task and one that I do not think they will be up to tonight. Actually in that game vs. South Carolina, UCF had the lead at halftime before the Gamecocks eventually got the 28-25 win. UCF has a very efficient offense led by quarterback Blake Bortles (19 TD/ 5 INT) and running back Storm Johnson (841 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns) that is averaging 35 ppg and converting on 3rd downs at a 49% conversion rate.
These two teams did meet in the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl and Rutgers won, 45-24. O'Leary was the coach for UCF then and he would love to run the score up tonight and get some good ol' revenge. That was 4 years ago and Rutgers had playmakers on both side of the ball. WR Sanu (NFL draft pick) had 2 touchdowns and the defense also had a pick 6 in the game. Please remember also that Rutgers had a defense in 2009 that only allowed 308 ypg. This year, Rutgers lost 7 players to the NFL Draft and their defense is giving up 433 yards per game. Some of that might also be in the coaching change with 2nd year coach Kyle Flood as Schiano was much more defensive minded. Rutgers defense is now getting shed for 514 ypg their last 5 games.
UCF did struggle last week vs. Temple which did not surprise me as they were clearly not focused but I feel the situation playing back home will play to their advantage against a Rutgers team playing on short rest as well tonight.
Trends:
Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Chicago Bulls vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets +1½
The Bulls are on a game winning streak as they head out west to the altitude to play the Denver Nuggets in what is the start of a 6 game road trip. The home team is 7-3 SJU the last 10 matchups and Denver is 4-0 SU the last 4 at home vs. the Bulls. Denver has won 3 straight home games now vs. the Hawks, Lakers, and the T'Wolves. I like the temp of the Denver offense as well right now as they have scored over 100 points in their last 7 games.
The Bulls are like day and night when playing at home and on the road. The Bulls are only 1-3 SU on the road and their defense is much worse as opponents are shooting 44% from the floor, including 42% from the 3 point line and scoring 98 ppg. That should go well for Denver as they are shooting 40% from behind the arc in their home games this year. When playing in altitude, I will also factor the bench and that Denver's bench is scoring 45.5 ppg compared to Chicago's minute 26 ppg. Look for Denver to push the pace, make plenty of perimeter shots , and use their bench to polish off the Bulls.
Trends:
• Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
• Bulls are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win.
• Bulls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Northwest
• Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Nuggets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Nuggets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Central.