LT Profits
NC-Wilmington vs Western Kentucky
Pick: Western Kentucky -9
The NC-Wilmington Seahawks come off of a 10-20 season and they lost easily their best player from that team in Keith Rendleman, who was a walking double-double averaging 17.0 points and 10.5 rebounds. Thus, it is not surprising that they currently rank 219th in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency after five games, and their 3-2 record is deceiving as they beat three non-lined opponents while losing their two lined games to Iowa and Iowa State by an average of 38 points! The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers return four starters from the team that won the Sun Belt Conference last season and then lost by just seven points to Kansas in the NCAA Tournament, and they also have a key addition in Aaron Adeoye, who averaged 14.3 points and 8.0 rebounds at the JUCO level last season. Western Kentucky is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 home games.
Clippers vs Thunder
Pick: Under 212
This is another big total in a marquee NBA in TNT matchup, and the fact that the Los Angeles Clippers beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-103 last time helps pad this total even more. However, first year Clipper Coach Doc Rivers wants to see better defense from a team that actually finished fourth in the NBA in points against last year, and he was finally pleased last night when LA held the Timberwolves to 37.8 percent shooting in a 102-98 road win. Rivers may also employ more half-court sets tonight as he probably does not want to get into a track meet with the Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are actually only 16th in the NBA in filed goal percentage and sixth in field goal percentage against, so more half-court play by LA should mean less scoring. The ‘under’ is 19-6-2 in the Thunder’s last 27 games after scoring at least 100 points in their previous game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Rice -18.5 over UAB: The Rice Owls are big road favorites here and with good reason as they have really beaten up on the weaklings of late and UAB certainly falls into that category. In their last 4 games the Owls are 3-1, with the 3 wins coming vs teams with a combined 7-23 mark and in those games Rice has won by 26, 38 & 38 points. They have crushed those teams. Now they take on another bad team in UAB who is just 2-8 on the and 3-7 ATS in those games. UAB comes off BB crushing losses as they were outscored by a combined 91 points to Marshall and East Carolina and Rice is pretty close to being equal to both those teams. The UAB defense is really wearing down as they allowed 1282 yards overall, including 659 yards in their last 2 games and that rushing defense does not look good at all heading to this one vs a Rice team that is 14th in the nation in rushing and that has run for 363 ypg in their last 3 wins. That running game will wear the UAB defense down and should allow Rice to pull away in the second half for a comfortable 24+point win.
1 UNIT PLAY
Rutgers +17.5 over UCF: The UCF Knights are 8-1 on the year but Akron, FIU and UConn are the only teams on their schedule that they beat by more than 5 points. Rutgers was crushed last week by Cincinnati and a win here would mean bowl eligibility, so I expect them to give their best in this one. I don't feel that Rutgers can win outright, but they should play hard enough to keep this one close.
Sam Martin
Rutgers at Central Florida
Prediction: Rutgers
While we do expect UCF to take this game outright, we believe there is decent line value on the road underdog in this matchup considering the amount of points the Knights are laying. Central Florida is averaging 35 points per game this season and with an average scoring output tonight they would have to hold Rutgers to 17 points or less - a tough task considering Rutgers puts up 29 ppg this year and 39 ppg away from home. Rutgers is 17-6 ATS away after a high scoring game that went over the total, and we look for them to stay close as UCF fails to pull away in the second half.
Rickie Robbins
Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Play: Rutgers +17½
UCF is averaging 35.2 PPG and Rutgers is averaging 28.2 ppg. UCF's defense is yielding only 20.6 ppg this season. Rutgers is giving up 35.4 ppg. Here are some key stats. Rutgers has only allowed 110.9 rush yards per game (12th in the country.)Rutgers has struggled with the pass, yielding 20.9 passes completed per game on average. The good news is UCF is about even at 20.7.
On a neutral field, UCF should be only a 7-point favorite. Add in their home-field advantage of about 3-5 points, and another 2 points for the Thursday-night environment, and we’re still only at 14 points. This game is zipping past 17.5. UCF has covered only one of four games when favored by 9 points or more this season, including failing to cover their past two games.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Los Angeles Clippers.
I know the surging Clippers have looked pretty darned good lately, riding the inspired play of Chris Paul, who has set an NBA record with 12 straight double-doubles to start the season. Oh, and, Blake Griffin has his own double-double streak of five straight games.
I still like the Thunder, on their own court tonight.
It's the spotlight game, and I don't believe Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are going to allow the Clippers to come into their house - particularly Paul and Griffin - and embarrass them or steal the show.
These two have already met once this season, on Nov. 13, when Paul had 14 points and 16 assists in a 111-103 home win over the Thunder. The Clippers ended their three-game slide in the series, and quite frankly, Oklahoma City hasn't been the same since.
It lost the next night in Oakland, to the Warriors, then needed to late surges to win its next two contests. If there were ever a game to unleash, and play to full potential, it's this game tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Clippers plus the points at the Thunder.
These teams just met in Lob City last Wednesday, and Los Angeles was able to exert their will in that one in a 111-103 win and cover.
The Clips are interested in showing the Thunder that there is a "changing of the guard" as to who the rising team in the West is, so my suggestion is to take the points with a Los Angeles team that has won 5 of their last 6 straight up, while covering all 3 in that span in the underdog role.
The Thunder is 4-0 straight up at home, but OKC has covered just once in their 4 home games this year.
Throw in Oklahoma City's 4-12 home spread mark the last 16 times they have hosted the Clippers, and you can see why I am siding with the visiting underdog.
Clippers the play.
4♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the OKC Thunder over the Clippers. LA is on a plane as I write this analysis, heading from Minnesota to Oklahoma City, getting ready to face a Thunder team that fell apart in Los Angeles the last time these two teams played.
Though they definitely haven't played great there, the Thunder are a perfect 4-0 at home and have beaten the only good team they've faced (Dallas) by double digits.
Some might point to the fact they've failed to show much home court advantage against teams like Phoenix, Washington and Denver, but it appears to me they are playing down or up to their talent.
This team is so anxious to get back to the playoffs with a healthy roster that they sometimes overlook some of their regular season games. I know it doesn't make a lot of sense, but it's just the way it is.
They kicked Dallas in the teeth in the second half by stepping up their defense, becoming one of only two teams to hold the Mavs to under 100 points on the road.
The Clips come in from a fairly physical game against the T'Wolves and get set to rumble with a team that wants some revenge. OKC led the Clippers into the 4th quarter, but the Clips closed the game on a 24-9 run to pull away from the Thunder.
Not tonight... OKC will roll from tip to buzzer. Take OKC minus the points as your free play of the day.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
I like Davidson as the underdog tonight against the Georgia Bulldogs, as the Wildcats are in a good spot here in the first round of the Charleston Classic. While I realize the Wildcats are 0-3 thus far in this young season, they come in after a 70-57 setback to No. 25 Virginia on Saturday, and a trip to a neutral court might be what the doctor ordered.
Davidson, in the midst of a six-game stretch away from home, has quite the challenging non-conference slate this year, having already played Duke, UW-Milwaukee and the Cavaliers.
The Wildcats, who lead the all-time series with Georgia (3-0), are led by Southern Conference Preseason Player of the Year, De'Mon Brooks, who is averaging 17.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, while they also have Tom Droney and Brian Sullivan contributing double figures with averages of 15.7 and 14.0 points, respectively.
And keep in mind, this is a team that was picked to finish second in the SoCon preseason poll by both the media and head coaches.
The Bulldogs have just two games under their belt, a 20-point win over Wofford and a 9-point loss to Georgia Tech. I don't know if they're necessarily ready for this game.
4♦ DAVIDSON
Brad Wilton
My comp winner tonight is Over the total in the Georgia Dome.
Throw out the 3 straight Unders played between the teams in Atlanta, as this one falls Under the Thursday night umbrella, and as you all should know by now the Under has cashed the last pair of Thursday night games, and 7 of the past 8 overall under the Thursday night lights.
Also consider that Atlanta has played Overs in 6 of their last 7 at home, while New Orleans comes in on a 4-1 Over clip their last 5 games overall.
The Falcons stand at 2-8 overall, and their defense has been shredded for 30 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games. Expect Drew Brees who was held in relative check this past Sunday against San Francisco to light things up tonight at the Georgia Dome.
Saints-Falcons Over the total.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA OVER
Sean Michaels
9-4 roll with comp plays after backing Arizona State in college hoops against UNLV on Tuesday. Tonight, however, I'm back on the Runnin' Rebels, but in college football as they seek to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2000 with a win at Air Force.
UNLV finds itself needing one more win with two games after losing three of its last four games, including consecutive home outings versus Utah State (28-24) and San Jose State (34-24). But those are pretty good teams; Air Force is not.
The Falcons are 2-8 SU on the season, including 0-6 in Mountain West play, following last Friday's 45-37 loss at New Mexico, a game where I had a 100 Dime Winner on the Lobos. And that's the same New Mexico team UNLV beat 56-42 in late September.
Sure, Air Force won its last home game, snapping a seven-game skid by beating Army 42-28, but the Falcons have allowed an average of 45 points a game in their home losses this season to Wyoming, Utah State, San Diego State and Notre Dame. They're an undersized team that's been shredded defensively all season and the Rebels have enough offensive talent to put points on the board.
Now the weather in Colorado Springs isn't going to be pretty. Snow is expected to fall during the day and at times during the game with the wind chill down in single digits. But both teams have to play in those conditions and UNLV is the more talented of the two.
2♦ UNLV
OC Dooley
Clippers +5.5
It was one year ago when the “other” team based in Los Angeles went 0-3 versus an Oklahoma City contingent with collectively some of the best talent in the Western Conference. But the dynamic changed quickly in the offseason when the Clippers gained the rights to new head coach Doc Rivers and it was just eight days ago when the team finally broke through on the scoreboard versus the Thunder. On what is a busy football night for those who take a peek at this TNT televised contest keep an eye out for superstar Chris Paul who has reeled off ELEVEN consecutive double-doubles which is something the league has not seen since Magic Johnson (1990-91) pulled off the trick. Almost singlehanded Paul lifted the Clippers to victory last time on the floor registering 16 points in the fourth quarter alone. Paul who leads the league in average assists per contest (12’) is joined by big man Blake Griffin who is coming off a superlative performance (20 points, 10 rebounds) and is working on a “double double” streak of 5 consecutive contests. My research indicates that when you have a home team like Oklahoma City coming off a “non cover” where the squad won outright on the scoreboard cast as a favorite, the VISITING side has successfully covered the spread at a 72-PERCENT long term clip which of course favors the Clippers.
Dr Bob
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-18) 40 Rutgers 23
My math model favors Rutgers by 20 points but Rutgers applies to a 66-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation. That makes the side tricky to pick but I do lean over the 59 1/2 points.
Rice (-17) 42 UAB 25
I don't have an opinion on the side of this game, as my math model favors Rice by only 14 1/2 points but UAB applies to a 58-103-4 ATS big home dog situation that is based on their recent bad play (which I've already accounted for in my model). I will lean over the 63 1/2 points.
Dr Bob
COLORADO (-14) over UC Santa Barbara
Colorado applies to a 210-110-11 ATS early season situation that has been winning again this season and that same angle applied to the Buffs for a Best Bet win a few days ago. However, I think the line has been over adjusted for UCSB star Alan Williams being out, as I get 12 points even if he is worth 3 1/2 points. I'll lean with the Buffs and I'd take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes down to -13 or less.