Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 24

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +7 over Green Bay

The Lions haven’t had a meaningful Thankgiving Day game since the pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock. With Detroit being penciled in each year on this American holiday, this was typically a game when the bumbling Lions would display their ineptitude to all. Rarely was it pretty. Now comes an opportunity to show everyone that things have changed. The Packers are clearly the class of the league but they have shown some vulnerability, particularly on pass defense. Green Bay can mask that inefficiency with its powerful passing game but surprisingly, defending the pass is one of Detroit’s strengths. The Lions currently rank 5th best in the league, giving up just 192 yards per game through the air. With a potent offense of its own and a frenzied crowd behind them, this matchup allows for us to take the converted touchdown being offered in a game that may come down to last team with the ball wins. You always pay a premium when wagering on the Pack and with this being a featured game with a ton of betting action, that premium is even higher for this one. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

DALLAS –7 +104 over Miami

With apologies to Miami fans, we just can’t get jacked up about the Dolphins current three-game winning streak. A look at Miami’s opponents during this present run consists of three of the more incompetent teams in the league. The combination of Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo reveals a trio that is currently on a 0-10 run while being outscored 277-86 in that span. Now the Fish must travel on a short week to play a Dallas team that is battling for its division and will remain focused throughout. Clearly, this is Miami’s toughest assignment in a month. They will have to contend with the hot hand of Tony Romo, who has been on a tear and with his downfield capabilities, expect the ‘Boys to attack Miami’s suspect secondary. With Dallas having gone to overtime against the rival Redskins last week and the ‘Fins being on this streak, this price gets reduced, allowing us a Thanksgiving Day bargain. Play: Dallas –7 +104 (Risking 2 units).

BALTIMORE –3½ +106 over San Francisco

The Harbowl. Now that that’s out of the way we can concentrate on the task at hand. Frankly, we feel that it’s not much of a task at all. While we commend the Niners for what they have accomplished on the field this season, there is too much compensation being allocated for this one. The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, in addition to winning 16 of their past 17 as hosts. Even though San Francisco’s defense has been outstanding this year, it won’t rattle these Birds. Baltimore has had visits from similar types with the Steelers, Texans and Jets stopping by. Not only did the Ravens sweep those teams, they did it convincingly by a combined 98-38 with the closest margin being 15 points. The Ravens are a battle-tested squad. Same can’t be said of the Niners, hailing from the weak NFC West. Now, this visitor is coming west to east on a short week, which they’ve openly complained about, while the Ravens have been sitting home for more than a week after hosting last Sunday. All things considered, spotting a field goal is cheap here, as the 49ers are not close to being as elite as their record suggests. A correction in that record is forthcoming. Play: Baltimore –3½ +106 (Risking 2 units).

John Ryan

Texas at Texas A&M
Prediction: Texas

5* graded play on Texas as they take on the Texas A&M Aggies set to start at 8:00 PM ET. After 117 years of storied tradition representing the third longest rivalry, this will be the last time the Longhorns play the Aggies as the Aggies will move to the SEC Conference next season. The Longhorns already have a complete non-conference schedule so the there will not be any chance for this rivalry to be renewed for the foreseeable future. I am certain, however, that Texas will enjoy the 118th meeting between these two teams. The betting odds for this game opened at Texas A&M installed as a 7 point favorite and money has been pouring in the Aggies. The line is beginning to move to eight point level and I would not be surprised to see it move to 8 ? or possibly 9 points by game time. The reason is focused on the uncertainty regarding the Texas quarterback situation and who will get the start. McCoy will start in my opinion and this will prove to be a significant advantage for the Longhorn offense. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that Texas A&M will struggle on offense and gain between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per play and will gain between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play overall. In past games where Texas A&M has produced these measures of offensive output they have posted an 0-2 ATS mark this season, 1-5 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per game; when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play in past games they have produced an 0-3 ATS mark this season, 1-7 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 16-28 ATS since 1992. Applying these projections to money line results shows that A&M is just 8-14 against the money line losing 23.2 units per on unit wagered when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt since 1992; 17-23 against the money line losing 23.7 units per on unit wagered when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992. The simulator shows a high probability exceeding 90% that Texas will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards. IN past games where they have achieved this level of offensive output they have produced a 22-7 against the money line making 13.9 units when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-40 and has made 36 units per one unit wagered since 2000. Play on a road team using the money line with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game and after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Texas defense played extraordinarily well last week in their loss to Kansas State allowing just 39 rushing yards on 38 attempts and 83 passing yards on just nine completions in 18 passing attempts. The Texas rushing defense ranks 11th in the FBS allowing 94.9 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M running back Cyrus Gray has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. He has gained 1045 yards on 198 rushing attempts for a solid 5.3 yards per rush average. This is a huge loss for the Aggies and is magnified by the fact that their other elite running back Christine Michael is out for the season with a knee injury. I strongly believe that this simple fact is be glossed over and that too much focus is being placed on the Aggies passing attack. The Aggies have a solid balanced offensive attack that ranks 15th in the FBS gaining 294 passing yards per game and 18th gaining 219 rushing yards per game. However, the passing game as fed off the running game this season. I strongly believe that the Texas defensive front will shut down the ground game and translate the A&M offense into a one dimensional passing attack. The Texas secondary is vastly under rated and they have the coverage personnel to matchup very well in man situations. This allows Texas to bring pressure from differing angles and attack the A gap with some severe intensity that will create massive problems for A&M quarterback Tannehill.

Wunderdog

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +6.5

The Green Bay Packers have been unbeatable over their last 16 games and are off to a 10-0 start this season. Can this team run the table? The notion of perfection has increased as the wins mount. I think that answer will be clearer after the next two weeks when the Lions and Giants take a shot at them. Detroit has risen from the ashes of the worst team in football over the past five years to utilize their futility and turn top draft picks into quality NFL players. The Lions are 7-3 and appear to be playoff bound. After seven indigestion-filled Thanksgiving losses both straight-up and ATS, the Lions will be looking for an Alka-Seltzer free Thanksgiving meal. The Packers have some chinks in the armor. Their defense has been poor against the pass all season and their stats defy a 10-0 team as they have outgained opponents by less than 20 yards per game, which doesn't equate to a 10-0 team. Their offensive line is highly suspect, especially without veteran Chad Clifton. The Lions are a good pressure-defense and are very solid against the pass. QB Matt Stafford has quietly thrown more TD passes than all but opposing QB Aaron Rogers with 25. I expect them to play well enough to stay inside this number. Take Detroit in this one.

Texas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -7.5

The Texas Longhorns have a mediocre offense this season, but that isn't the worst part of it. They currently have their top three running backs and their top wide receiver dealing with injuries. The end result is a Texas team than has scored all of 18 points in their last two games combined. Texas enters with a 6-4 record on the season, but a closer look shows them not getting it done vs. the better teams in the conference at 0-4. The Aggies have dropped five games to teams with a combined record of 43-11. They lost to Oklahoma State by just a single point and to Arkansas by just 4 points. They also fell in overtime to Kansas State by just 3 points. Texas has had trouble getting the money vs. winning teams at 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27, and have also dropped their last five as a dog. College Station has been no picnic for the Horns either as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six here. Lay the points and play on Texas A&M.

Jack Jones

Texas/Texas A&M OVER 53

Odds makers have set the bar too low Thursday in a Big 12 game that should see enough offensive fireworks to climb OVER the number by game's end. The books have put too much stock in the Longhorns' last two games, which resulted in low-scoring outputs against two of the better defenses in the Big 12.

I look for the Longhorns to get their offense going this week against one of the worst defenses not only in the Big 12, but in the entire country. Texas A&M ranks 74th in the land in total defense (400.1 yards/game), including 114th against the pass (292.3 yards/game). They give up 28.8 points/game this year.

Contrary to popular belief, Texas hasn't been that bad offensively. They rank 47th in the FBS in total offense (405.4 yards/game) while scoring 29.2 points/game. I fully expect this team to top both of these averages Saturday against this soft Aggie defense.

There's no question that Texas A&M is going to score points. The Aggies are putting up a whopping 40.9 points/game, and they rank 6th in the country in total offense (512.4 yards/game). While they may not reach their season averages against a solid Texas defense, scoring 30-plus won't be a problem, which will be enough to get this final score OVER the number.

The last four meetings between these teams at College Station have all seen 61 or more combined points. They combined for 88, 68, 69 and 61 points in their last four meetings at Texas A&M, respectively. Texas A&M is a better offensive team and a worse defensive team than they were in any of those four years.

Texas is 29-10 to the OVER in their last 39 games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. Texas A&M is 6-0 to the OVER in their last 6 games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game. The Longhorns are 26-12 to the OVER in their last 38 road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. The OVER is 25-9-1 in Aggies last 35 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

Jim Feist

Dolphins vs Cowboys
Play: Over 44

It took a while but the Miami offense has learned to score some points behind QB Matt Moore (7 TDs, 5 INTs) and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, scoring 31, 20 and 35 the last three games. But the problem here is the defense, which is allowing 251 yards passing per game (25th) and faces a talented Dallas offense. QB Tony Romo (19 TDs, 7 INTs) has a slew of talented weapons in WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten and RB DeMarco Murray, No. 6 in the NFL with 277 yards passing per game. Dallas comes home from a big division win Sunday, 27-24 in OT, at Washington. The offense had 353 yards, 292 passing from Romo who had 3 TDs, no picks. The Cowboys are 19-9 over the total in their last 28 games and they should tear up this soft Miami secondary. Play the Cowboys/Dolphins Over the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

DALLAS -7 over Miami: The Dolphins have won 3 in a row, but none of those games were vs the caliber of the Cowboys. This is an important game for Dallas as they are in a big fight for the NFC East. Their offense is solid at 6th overall 10th in rushing and 9th in scoring. maim has been solid vs the run, but just 27th vs the pass, so they will have all sorts of problems trying to contain this Dallas passing offense that is 6th in the league, putting up 277 ypg. The Miami defense has played well overall, but the last time they played a passing offense this good was vs New England in the opening game and they allowed over 500 yards passing in that one. I don't expect the Cowboys to put up that much offense, but they won't have to either as this Miami offense has been horrible this year, putting up just 19.3 ppg overall and 17.2 ppg on the road. They will really find the going tough in this one as Dallas is 10th in total defense (328.6 ppg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg), plus the Cowboys have allowed just 15.4 ppg and 303.6 ypg at home this year. Even though their defense has been good, Miami just doesn't have enough offense to keep this one close. Dallas by 10+.

3 UNIT PLAY

Baltimore/ San Francisco under 38.5: The Niners are 9-1 on the year, but it has not been due to their offense. Yes they are 8th in the league in scoring, but just 20th in the league in total offense. For this team it has been Turnovers as they are 1st in the league in TO margin and those TO's have led to alot of short fields and easy scores. This is not a team that goes the length of the field too often and they are 19th in the league in yards per play (5.3). The Niners defense has been stout this year and they are 1st in points allowed (14.5) ppg and 8th in yards allowed (323), plus they have allowed just 12.7 ppg in their last 3 games overall and just 13.5 ppg in their games on artificial turf this year. The Ravens are not a truly explosive offense as they are 20th in the league in yards per play (5.2). The Ravens offense has been average this year at 15th overall, but they do rank 7th in scoring at 25.6 ppg, but like the Niners that is due to getting TO's. Both teams live off of TO's, but neither team gives it up much so I expect both teams to have to work the whole field to get scores and that should be tough vs these top notch defenses. Baltimore is in the top ten in Total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and points allowed and they should be able to keep this Niners squad from getting alot of points, while the niners ground game and defense will limit the Ravens from putting many points up. I see no more than 30 in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Dallas/ Miami Under 44.5: Miami's last 3 games have averaged just 35.4 ppg and its mostly because of a conservative game plan and a tough defense that has allowed just 6.7 ppg over that stretch.Overall this year it has been their defense that has been pretty solid as they have allowed just 18.6 ppg overall and just 18 ppg on the road. The Dallas defense has been very good this year as they have allowed just 328.6 ypg overall (10th) and just 20.6 ppg (12th). At home this Dallas defense has been really stingy, allowing just 15.4 ppg and 303.6 ypg and they should really be able to shut down a Miami team that has put up just 17.2 ppg and 304 ypg on the road. Overall, Miami doesn't really have an offense and in order to win they know they can't trade points, so they will look to use their solid run game (15th) to shorten the game and keep this very good Dallas offense off the field. I do expect Dallas to get their fair share of points, but Miami's futile offense will keep this one from going over the total. KEY ANGLE: The OU is 13-38, since 1992, when Miami plays a team with a winning pct of 60-75 during the 2nd half of the season.

1 UNIT PLAY

Green Bay -6.5 over DETROIT:The Packers are on a mission right now and I don't feel that the Detroit defense will come up with enough stops to keep this one close. Green Bay by 10+

Matt Rivers

Comp play winner now to get the day started is to play the over in the Green Bay-Detroit game to get the festivities started.

Both teams have been playin' em high of late, as the Packers have sailed over the total in four in a row, while the Lions have also been playin' em high of late with overs in their last three.

For the season, both teams are 7-3 over the total in their ten games played. In the series, the over has come through in five of the last eight meetings.

The Lions are on an overall 16-8-2 over clip their last 26 games played, and this one sure has the makings of a very offensive affair to start your holiday off.

Packers and Lions do not disappoint, go over in the first of three NFL affairs for this Turkey Day.

5♦ OVER

VEGAS EXPERTS

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Not sure yet if the Lions are good enough to beat the Packers outright, but we definitely like them plus the points here at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. Yes, Detroit is a miserable 0-7 SU/ATS on Turkey Day since 2004, but this is an entirely different outfit as they bring their best record into the holiday in years at 7-3 SU and over the last two seasons they are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they went Over in their previous two games.

Play on: Detroit

BANG THE BOOK

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44)

Thanksgiving Day football betting action is a great tradition like none other in all of sports, and here at Bang the Book, we are making our NFL picks for the clash between the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins have the best record on Thanksgiving Day in terms of winning percentage amongst teams that have played at least five times on the holiday at 5-1, and they hope to continue that this week in Big D, a site of three of their five wins. Miami’s season looked to be said and done with after starting off the campaign 0-7, but since that point, Head Coach Tony Sparano has really gotten his team rolling, winning three in a row in convincing fashion. Now, an upset in this game, and all of a sudden, the squad could legitimately be a longshot to make the playoffs in the AFC. The key has been the defense, which just refuses to give up touchdowns now. The offense has done a good job taking care of the football, and RB Reggie Bush has had a renaissance as a runner, scoring a touchdown in each of the last three games. There is still a lot of work to do, and we have to remember that games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Washington Redskins aren’t exactly wins that will stand out at the end of the season, but there is no doubt that this team is more formidable now than it was a month ago.

The Cowboys have hit their annual Thanksgiving Day game on a high as well, winning three straight games as well. Again, the quality of opponent really hasn’t been all that special, but wins are wins, and there is no doubt that this is a team that is on the cusp of getting back to the postseason. Dallas has tied for the lead in the NFC East, and with two games with the co-leaders, the New York Giants still on tap, it could use all the wins that it can get. QB Tony Romo is No. 5 in the league in touchdown passes this year with 19, but once again, he is likely going to be without one of his favorite receivers, WR Miles Austin. Austin has a hamstring injury and has missed the last two games. There is only one game all year long in which Austin, WR Dez Bryant, and TE Jason Witten have all played from start to finish, thus making it all the more remarkable that Romo has been able to put up these types of numbers.

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Dallas is probably going to find a way to win this game, but we aren’t going to be counting out the Fins. We do suggest waiting to see if you can find a 7.5 later in the week, as the public loves backing the Cowboys and fading the Lions on Thanksgiving. In the end though, you’re going to be better served snaring the points.

PICK: Miami Dolphins +7

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)

Thanksgiving Day is generally a time for families to get together, and in the NFL betting world, this really isn’t an exception. Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh will square off against one another in the night cap on Thursday night, as the Baltimore Ravens play host to the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners just continue to roll, as they are not just 9-1 SU, but they are 9-0-1 ATS as well on the season. That type of mark is just unheard of in the NFL betting world, but it is one that San Francisco is wearing well. The team is on the verge of clinching the NFC West, and it will do so with a win and a loss by the Seattle Seahawks this week. What we have to remember is that the 49ers are just a game back of the top seed in the conference, though they are only two games up for a first round bye. QB Alex Smith doesn’t have numbers that will overwhelm you, but he is doing a fantastic job resurrecting his career. He has thrown for just 1,976 yards, a far cry from the over 3,000 yards that four quarterbacks have this year, but he is completing 62.4 percent of his passes and has a TD/INT ratio of 13/4. That parlayed with a ground game that ranks No. 6 in the game at 134.2 yards per game and a defense that is only allowing 14.5 points per game, and you have the perfect makings of a team that could be on its way to a shocking trip to the Super Bowl when push comes to shove.

Baltimore is one of the most exacerbating teams in the game. It has some fantastic wins against some of the best in the game, including when it knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers twice and a home win against the Houston Texans. However, for all of those great wins comes a loss against a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Seattle Seahawks. The Ravens played their first game in quite some time without LB Ray Lewis last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Lewis might not be able to give it a go this week with a toe injury, and S Tom Zbikowski could be out of the fold as well. That being said, this is still a defense which is absolutely dominating. There aren’t many teams in the game that can say they rank in the Top 10 in the league in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, and scoring, but that’s the bill that fits the Ravens. Watch out for RB Ray Rice as well, as he has 1,176 total yards to go with 10 total touchdowns on the campaign.

San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Everyone thinks that this is going to be the game in which the Niners fall back to earth, but we just don’t agree. San Francisco might be the better of these two teams when push comes to shove, and we think that that it will flex its muscles on the road for the fifth time this season. This should be a remarkable game that comes down to the wire.

PICK: San Francisco 49ers +3.5

Charlie Scott

Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 45

The Dolphins first game of the season went Over and now the next 9 Miami games have gone Under. The Cowboys are 4-2 Under 44 their last 6 games. This Total is inflated due to the Cowboys being a public team playing on Thanksgiving. I made this Total 38. Expect with such a short time to prepare that both teams play pretty conservative.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Green Bay Packers -6

The Packers will come into Today's game with the Lions focused and play with revenge from last season. Last Year the Lions knocked out their QB Rogers for a couple of games with a concussion as the Packers lost 3-7. The Lions defense struggles vs good passing teams, The Packers in a dome pass like Rogers is playing a video game ! Advantage Green Bay ! The Packers are 7-3 ATS 10-0 S/u all 3 spread losses have been as Double Digit Favorites. -6 is a cheap price for the superior Team with motivation.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona State vs. Fairfield
Play: Fairfield -3.5

The Stags are a solid 26-3 vs teams with a losing record and have won and covered 3 of the last 4 in neutral court games. When the total is 120 to 130 they have covered 13 of the past 15 times. Tonight they oppose the Arizona St Sun Devils. ASU has lost 20 of the past 22 as an underdog. In November games they have struggles checking in at just 2-10 ats. In fact in all tournament games Arizona St is just 1-7 ats. We cant back them here against a talented Fairfield team that may be tops in their conference by seasons end. Look for Fairfield to emerge with the win and cover.

Mike Davis

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7

The "hot" Miami Dolphins (3-7) travel to Dallas to face off with the unpredictable Dallas Cowboys (6-4). Dallas traditionally plays on Thanksgiving Day and usually I look forward to their Thanksgiving Day game. That holds true again this year. The Dolphins are coming into this game "red hot" having won 3 in a row after losing their first 7 games. I'm interested to see why they are only a TD dog in this one.

Does Tony Sparano still coach the team? Is Matt Moore the starting quarterback? Sure, they have won three in a row. They defeated KC, Washington, and a reeling Buffalo ball club. That isn't exactly a list of dominant NFL teams. This is a great spot to fade the Dolphins as they are getting way too much respect in this one.

Dallas has the better offense and the better defense. Dallas is playing at home and they have found a running game. Romo has played better as of late and Dez Bryant is emerging as a superstar. Their play calling has been much better lately as well. That is due in large part to the emergence of DeMarco Murray at running back. The defense has to respect the run and that has made Dallas' play-action game very successful. They have a balanced attack and that is something you couldn't say early in the season.

Steve Janus

Texas +8½

As bad as the Longhorns have looked in their last two games against Missouri and Kansas State, I look for them to come alive against the Aggies tonight. Texas A&M went out and rolled over Kansas 61-7 in their last game, but don't be fooled by that defense allowing just 7 points. The Aggies gave up 38 or more in each of their previous three games, and I look for the Longhorns to be able to move the ball and put some points on the board. Not only do I think Texas will cover the 8.5-point spread, but I think they could end up winning this game outright. Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0, while Texas A&M is just 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS A&M –8 over Texas

The coaches and players on both teams are downplaying it, but each fan base blames the other school for the messy divorce and near-destruction of the Big 12, and it's hard to understate the fury associated with the final meeting in this century-old series. We don't lay points in rivalry games lightly, but here we prefer the more experienced team playing at home. Kyle Field has never been a bigger edge in this series than it is this year, and at a time when both teams have serious injury issues at the skill positions, the Ryan Tannehill-to-Ryan Swope combination looms large as the most reliable scoring threat on the field. This game is a season-redeeming opportunity rarely presented to a team that has fallen as far short of expectations as have the Aggies. Texas fields a struggling offense that lacks the explosive downfield threat required to exploit A&M's biggest weakness. It's very unusual for a team to have the Aggies' profile of a top pass-rushing team but bottom-feeding pass defense. This has been a poor coverage team all year, and the downfield pass defense has been the culprit in every loss. The Longhorns are taking a scuffling, underclassman-led offense into a uniquely hostile environment and lack the weapons to follow the blueprint of the Aggies' prior opponents that beat them. Play: Texas A&M –8 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).